Prof
- f. Gianl
nluc uca Oricchi hio,
- , PhD
hD, CPA CB CBM Un University, Ro Rome Convegno ABI
Basile ilea III e M Modelli lli di i Busin iness: :
C C cos
- sa abbi
bbiamo a
- appr
ppreso
- da
dalla c crisi?
Roma Giugno 2011
Basile ilea III e M Modelli lli di i Busin iness: : C cos C - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Roma Giugno 2011 Convegno ABI Basile ilea III e M Modelli lli di i Busin iness: : C cos C osa abbi bbiamo a o appr ppreso o da dalla c crisi? Prof of. Gianl nluc uca Oricchi hio, o, PhD hD, CPA CB CBM Un University, Ro
Prof
nluc uca Oricchi hio,
hD, CPA CB CBM Un University, Ro Rome Convegno ABI
Roma Giugno 2011
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Driver ers to b be e cons
dered: d:
Management Instruments
Growth by Segment
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
dit Cycle Tur urni ning ng Poi
nts -
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
tempo Total Tier Basilea I Costo storico Basilea II Fair Value
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Illustrative
Risk Free Commercial Price Operating Cost Forward Looking Credit Spread*
Expected loss facing Unexpected loss facing
Commercial Mark-up Cost of funding
(non-binding opinion applied to Client)
Transfer Spread
Various components contribute to define commercial price
(*) Credit risk spread defined by internal and external ratings models (Risk Calc Italy di Moody’s Kmw )
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
ples of
Pricing ng repor ports -
(**) Risk Adjusted Spread is equivalent to Market spread Point in Time + Cost of Funding (March 2008) (***) Risk Adjusted Spread Mid Term Average as best proxy to calculate “through the cycle” spreads, Cost of Funding included
“Risk Adjusted Spread” is is non non bi bindi ding for final price but it is binding for Relationship Managers performance
Loa Loans ns are or
gina nated w d with h a cons
nt r risk/retur urn n pr prof
ILLUSTRATIVE
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Rischi hio di
unding ng Ris ischio io d di i Credito ito
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
(*) Risk Adjusted Spread = insurance spread + cost of funding = Transfer spread
Credit Policies
Open Credit Request Documents Acceptance Load Credit Request
Origination Non Performing Credit Request Credit Mgmt
Opening Client/ Group dossier Opening Facility/ Collateral dossier (focus on “fidi promiscui”) Rating calculation Risk Adjusted spread(*) settlement Synthesis judgment Loan proposal (amount, risk adjusted spread, commercial spread) Loan dossier sent to entitled credit structure Loan Decision (amount, risk adjusted spread, commercial spread) Loan activation Collateral perfection Contract Underwriting
Evaluation Proposal and Decision Underwriting/ Loan Activation
Activities
Risk adjusted spread settlement will impact on Origination phase of the Credit Process; real time calculation makes RMs aware of the credit risk impact
Impact on Relationship Manager MBO
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
External Ratings
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B
CDS median + 2 σ CDS median - 2 σ CDS median
Internal Ratings
0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 4,0%
0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 4,0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0,0%
0,0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CDS median + 2 σ CDS median - 2 σ Insurance Price + Cost of Funding Commercial spread
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Short term loans (Capitalia Banking Group) M/L term loans (Capitalia Banking Group)
term issues
spread differential is negative above risk class 14
(rating classes) and return (interest margin on average volume) for clients with new short term loan until class 19
spread and risk adjusted spread, on exception of high risk classes
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
The he appl pplication
n Pricing ng mode
hows pot potent ntial mispr pricing ng actions
during ng credi dit c cycle dow downt ntur urn Short T Term F Facilit ilitie ies Long T Long Term facilities
3m 3m 6m 6m 12m 12m 24m 24m 60m 60m 12m 12m E EVA b break eak ev even en EVA Break eak Even en
expected maturity
~300% 300% unde underpr pricing f ng for
Long T Long Term Facilit ilitie ies
Cre redit it Treasury pric ricin ing methodol hodology
is market orien ented (Nelson Siegel) Credit dit pr pric icing mode dels ls are mor
curate te than 1 yea ear EVA VA frame mework: the figure shows that short term facilities are overpriced using 1yr EVA (when compared to market prices), while long term Facilities are underpriced
~40% ov
pricing ng for r Short rt Term rm Facilit ilitie ies
ILLUSTRATIVE
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
0,00% 0,50% 1,00% 1,50% 2,00% 2,50% 3,00% 3,50% 4,00% 4,50% mar-70 apr-71 mag-72 giu-73 lug-74 ago-75 set-76
nov-78 dic-79 gen-81 feb-82 mar-83 apr-84 mag-85 giu-86 lug-87 ago-88 set-89
nov-91 dic-92 gen-94 feb-95 mar-96 apr-97 mag-98 giu-99 lug-00 ago-01 set-02
nov-04 dic-05 gen-07 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% All corp - Default Rate Capital Requ. ~1,5 yrs delay ~2 yrs delay
RWA are backward looking
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Rischi hio di
unding ng Ris ischio io d di i Credito ito
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Pricing discipline can improve the Loan Banking Book risk - return profile because:
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
In 2002, the market’s opinion of Capitalia was not positive
Merril Lynch
“…We estimate that Capitalia will not be able to reach European standards on asset quality …”
2002 O 2002 OPINION
UBS
“…weak profitability and low credit quality…”
Deutsche Bank
“…Capitalia has some problems in relation to asset quality, lack
capital and
Moody’s
“…the profitability
the group remains modest, with pre-provision profitability declining …”
Fitch Ratings
“…the ratings reflect the continuing risk in the credit portfolio, weak income generation and a low capital base….”
management techniques
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
On short term loans the introduction of insurance price allowed the price mismatch balancing
Illustrative
On mid-term loan the introduction of insurance price has allowed the credit rationing on riskier classes
risk for new mid to long-term issues
is negative above risk class 14
rationale of LGD effect for acquiring collaterals (22% of products at maturity is covered by collaterals, even if focused on higher risk counterparties)
and return (interest margin on average volume) for clients with new short term loan until class 19
risk adjusted spread, on exception of high risk classes
market pressure (competitors) especially for low and mid-low risk profile
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 120,0 140,0
t
d i c
f e b
a p r
g i u
a g
t
d i c
f e b
a p r
g i u
a g
t
d i c
f e b
a p r
g i u
a g
t
d i c
f e b
a p r
g i u
a g
t
d i c
f e b
Equity €
0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 8,00
Capitalia Equity from 1€ to 7€ + 600%
Capitalia 5yrs CDS from 120 to 10 bps
CDS - bps
from 120 bps to 11 bps
54 bps
profitability: ROE up from 0.5% to 15.5%
From 2002 to beginning 2007
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
The market’s perception of Capitalia changed:
Credit Suisse FB
2006 O 2006 OPINIONS
UBS Deutsche Bank Fitch Ratings
“…we recognize that the bank is clearly in a better position as a credible restructuring story… ” “…we believe Capitalia remains the most attractive restructuring story among Italian banks…” “Capitalia is the Italian restructuring story, in our opinion” “Capitalia’s asset quality trend is better than the average for the Italian banks and it will continue to improve faster than the other Italian banks, mainly due to new risk management procedures” “… Risk management across the group has been strengthened since 2002. Better credit risk management has led to better quality of performing loans …”
Goldman Sachs
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Key features Insurance Model (liquid clients)
Liquid counterparties with quoted CDS (ex.: Large Corporate) The spread curve can be interpolated from available market data Client
Is there a liquid CDS quote?
Yes No
Is rated by Official Rating Agencies?
Yes
CDS average (eg. Nelson Siegel) Is rated by IRB internal model
No Yes No
Rating System TTC Rating System PIT Forward looking adjustement Forward looking adjustement
Internal Pricing Unit
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Spr pread d Cur urves A Adjus ustm tments nts:
spread1yr ≥ EL + + kUL UL*
respect rating scale and term structure
equal to 50% of 1-yr spread
year computed by linearly interpolating overnight and 1- yr spread. Defi fini niti tion
the fi fina nal spr pread c d cur urves is pe perfor formed d thr through
the fol follow
ng adj djus ustm tments nts:
AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- 0 bps 10 bps 20 bps 30 bps 40 bps 50 bps 60 bps 70 bps 80 bps 90 bps
n 6 m 1 y r 2 y r 3 y r 4 y r 5 y r 6 y r 7 y r 8 y r 9 y r 1 y r
In Inves estmen ent-Grad ade Cu e Curves es
BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- 0 bps 100 bps 200 bps 300 bps 400 bps 500 bps 600 bps 700 bps 800 bps 900 bps
n 6 m 1 y r 2 y r 3 y r 4 y r 5 y r 6 y r 7 y r 8 y r 9 y r 1 y r
Sub In Inves estmen ent-Grad ade Cu e Curves es
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
econciled ed using a for
d look
ng appr pproa
point and migration matrices).
Market (CDS 5yrs) Internal parameters (PD, LGD) CDS 5yrs EL k * UL = PD * LGD * EaD
Forward looking Anchor point and Forward looking Migration Matrices implicit in CDS market curves
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
Following a loan request by a client (1), the RM
(2) The data retrieved from the legacies (3) are needed by the RM in order to start the loan evaluation phase and to operate the pricing tool (4-5) The tool interrogates the dedicated CFO pricing engine (6) (with relevant financial and market data) and returns the Risk Adjusted Spread to the RM (7) Functional support on the pricing methodology will be provided by GCT (8); technical support on the Pricing Tool will be provided by CA (9) Based on the Risk Adjusted Spread (non-binding), the RM determines the proposed spread to the client (10) and finalizes insertion of the proposal in the legacy procedures Pricing Tool archive spread and input data only if data will be saved by RMs Feedbacks about IT and process structure are received in GCT by RMs Each interaction within RM and GCT/ CA are memorizing in a log called “Light Monitoring”
CFO Data Base
RM
Pricing Tool Market Data Pratica Elettronica Pricing Engine Legacies
Financing Credit cards Pool Basel II Facilities
Check.Acc.
Anagrafe … Direct RM action Automatic system action Client 1 7 2 4 3 5 6
10
(*) The target architecture has been defined and will be implemented in Phase II 6 6
Holding
GCT CA 8 9
Conv
gno ABI I – 20 20 Giugno ugno 201 2011 Bas asilea 3 ea 3 e B e Ban anking Busin siness M ss Models ls
CFO Data Base
RM
Market Data Pratica Elettronica Pricing Engine Legacies
Financing Credit cards Pool Basel II Facilities
Check.Acc.
Anagrafe … Direct RM action Automatic system action Client 2 3
Holding
GCT CA 5 6 1 4
Once the request is inserted, the legacies procedures send all loan data to the CFO Database (1), which integrates them with the relevant consolidated market data (2) The CFO Database using the pricing engine, compute ex-post the Risk Adjusted Spread (3) and compares it to the Transfer Spread manually inserted by the RM In case of a mismatch, a notification e- mail is sent to the UBI (4): support is provided by GCT and CA (5-6) In case of a mismatch, after verification with GCT and CA, RM (7) receive a feedback by UBI (7) Each interaction within RM vs GCT and UBI are memorizing in a log called “Light Monitoring” Risk adjusted spread is valid 30 days (between the proposal data and decision
(*) The target architecture has been defined and will be implemented in Phase II
Pricing Tool UBI
7