Investor Presentation
May 2015
Banco Galicia Investor Presentation May 2015 Agenda The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Banco Galicia Investor Presentation May 2015 Agenda The Argentine Economy The Argentine Financial System Banco Galicia Annex 2 Economic Activity 12% 900 9,1% 9,2% 8,8% 9,0% 8,4% 9% 8,6% 8,0% 7,9% 800 6% 5,0% 700 3,2%
May 2015
2
8,8% 9,0% 9,2% 8,4% 8,0% 3,1% 0,1% 9,1% 8,6% 0,9% 2,9% 0,5%
7,9% 5,0%
3,2%
200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
Billons of Ps. GDP % Change Real GDP growth Official Figures Private estimates (LatinFocus - Market Consensus) GDP, 1993 constant prices
As of March 2015.
3
100 200 300 400 Dic-01 Jun-03 Dic-04 Jun-06 Dic-07 Jun-09 Dic-10 Jun-12 Dic-13
4 8 12 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015E 2016E
% Developed economies Emerging and developing economies World
World GDP Growth Agricultural Commodity Prices
Dec’01=100.
1.4
1 2 3 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Bilateral (Ps./US$) Multilateral
Real Exchange Rate
Annual Average. Adjusted by INDEC CPI until 2006, and by private estimates since 2007. As of March 2015. As of April 30, 2015. International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook, January 2015.
1.1
4
0,2
10 20 30
2 4 6 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 2015E
Billons of US$ As a % of GDP Overall Fiscal Balance as a % of GDP Overall Fiscal Balance (in millions of US$)
Fiscal Performance (Federal Government only)
1 2 3 4 5 6 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
As a % of GDP Millions of US$
Monetary Financing
Argentine Central Bank advances Argentine Central Bank profits Use of international reserves Total Argentine Central Bank financing (as % of GDP) - r.h.s.
5
42.8 18.0 11.7
50 100 150 200 250 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2011 2013 2014
As a % of GDP
Sovereign Debt
Gross public sector debt Public debt net of intra public sector holdings Public debt net of intra public sector holdings and International Financial Institutions
199
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 50 100 150 200 250
Debt stock
5 10 15 20 25 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Projected annual debt payments(*)
Foreign currency Pesos Billions of US$
(*) Net of Central Bank advances, treasury bills and non-transferable bills held by Central Bank.
As of June 30, 2014.
6
Pesos 5% Pesos indexed to CER 5% USD 60% Euros 26% Other 4%
Debt by Currency
0.8% 0.1% 0,0%
20 40 60 80 100 120
0,0% 2,5% 5,0% 7,5% 10,0% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 2015E
Billons of US$ As a % of GDP Current Accout (accrued basis) Exports Imports
0,0% 2,5%
5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
As a % of GDP Billons of US$
Net External Asset Accumulation
Source: INDEC
External Sector 7
80 160 Ene-04 Ene-06 Ene-08 Ene-10 Ene-12 Ene-14
Central Bank’s FX Market Average Daily Intervention
(In millions of Dollars)(*) (In billions of Dollars)(*)
International Reserves
(*) As of March 31, 2015.
8
35 70 105 140 175 210 245 280 Ene-04 Ene-06 Ene-08 Ene-10 Ene-12 Ene-14
Stock of Lebac
(In billions of Pesos)(*) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Ene-04 Ene-06 Ene-08 Ene-10 Ene-12 Ene-14
YOY % chg Monthly average in billions of Ps.
M2
15 30 45 60 Ene-04 Ene-06 Ene-08 Ene-10 Ene-12 Ene-14
CCI: Cost of Construction Index PBPI: Producers Basic Prices Index CPI: Consumer Prices Index(*) IWPI: Internal Wholesale Prices Index As of December 2014. (*) Published up to Dec’13. New index 2 months 2015: 2.1%.
27.9 13.2 16.8 18.0 10,9
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
C C I C P I P B P I I W P I
%
Other Measures
(12 months trailing variation)
1
41 4 6 12 10 18 19 16 23 21 24 26 41 26
10 20 30 40 50 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15E
CPI
(end of period, annual variation)
%
INDEC CPI until 2006, and private estimates since 2007.
9
500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
461 707 533 773 4.372 1.562 1.045 550 499 216 410 1.704 660 496 925 991 808 719 588
Basis points over U.S. Treasury Risk Premium (end of period)
(2)
(1) As measured by the EMBI+ for Argentina except for the period between 2002 and 2004 when it corresponds to the spread
(2) As of April 8, 2015.
(1)
250 500 750 1.000 1.250 1.500 1.750 2.000 Ene-07 Ene-09 Ene-11 Ene-13 Ene-15 Embi+ Embi+ Arg
From January 1, 2007
10
11
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Mar-15
(12)% 25% 38% 40% 43% 22% 10% 37% 47% 31% 30% 20% 22%
Loans to the Private Sector
(in billions of Pesos) 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Mar-15
23% 13% 21% 22% 25% 8% 20% 30% 27% 29% 28% 32% 35%
Deposits from the Private Sector
(in billlons of Pesos) CAGR: Dec-02 / March-15. As of March 31, 2015. CAGR: 26.1% CAGR: 23.2%
12
10 20 30 40 50 60 Dic-03 Jun-05 Dic-06 Jun-08 Dic-09 Jun-11 Dic-12 Jun-14
% Deposits Loans
Y-O-Y Monthly % Change
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Dec-06 Jan-08 Feb-09 Mar-10 Apr-11 May-12 Jun-13 Jul-14
Deposits in Pesos Deposits in Dollars (In US$)
Dec'06=100
As of March 31, 2015.
13
(*) Adjusted by INDEC CPI until 2006, and by private estimates since 2007. In millions of Ps.of March 2015.
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14E '15E 26 22 21 19 18 19 19 15 13 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 24 19 10 8 9 10 11 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 13
Deposits from the Private Sector Loans to the Private Sector
As a % of GDP 14
As of March 2015. Central Bank of each country. 80 180 280 380 480 580 680 780 Ene-97 Ene-00 Ene-03 Ene-06 Ene-09 Ene-12 Ene-15
Deposits from the Private Sector Loans to the Private Sector
In billions of constant Pesos (*)
20 40 60 80 100 Chile Brazil Peru Colombia Mexico Argentina
77 37 39 42 21 21 81 58 38 35 19 15
Deposits to GDP Loans to GDP
Financial Depth (as a % of GDP)
(1) Private Banks’ 30-day time deposits rate, for deposits over Ps. 1 million. (2) Adjusted by INDEC CPI until 2006, and by private estimates since 2007. 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 Dic-04 Jun-06 Dic-07 Jun-09 Dic-10 Jun-12 Dic-13
%
Nominal Interest Rates
(monthly averages)
As of March 31, 2015.
6 12 18 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015E
%
Real Interest Rates
(annual averages) (2) BADLAR Private Banks (1)
15
Deposit data is not shown for the period January-March 2002, because as a result of the devaluation and the pesification measures, figures are not homogeneous for that period. As of March 31, 2015.
16
91% 9%
20 40 60 80 100 Jun-01 Dic-02 Jun-04 Dic-05 Jun-07 Dic-08 Jun-10 Dic-11 Jun-13 Dic-14
By Currency
(as a % of CA+SA+Time Deposits)
Pesos CER Adjusted Foreign Currency
51% 49%
40 60 80 100 Jun-01 Dic-02 Jun-04 Dic-05 Jun-07 Dic-08 Jun-10 Dic-11 Jun-13 Dic-14
By Type of Deposit
(as a % of CA+SA+Time Deposits)
Current Accounts + Savings Accounts Time Deposits
December 2001 January 2015
Number Market Share Private-Sector Deposits (%) Number Market Share Private-Sector Deposits (%)
Banking Institutions 86 86 100 100 65 65 100 100 Government-Owned Banks 13 30 12 36 Private-Sector Banks 73 70 53 64
34 15 33 31
39 55 20 33
17
15 30 45 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Feb'15
18 23 48 50 34 24 19 15 13 16 13 11 10 9 9 9
Exposure to the Public Sector (*)
%
As of February 28, 2015. (*) Not including Central Bank Paper.
1.8 140 140.6
60 90 120 150 180 5 10 15 20
NPLs / Total Credit Loan Loss Reserves / NPLs
Loan Portfolio Quality
NPLs / Total Credit Loan Loss Reserves / NPLs
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2000 Ene-15
26 45 74 55
INDIVIDUALS COMPANIES
Composition of Loans 18
0,9 1,9 1,5 1,6 2,3 2,8 2,7 2,9 3,4 4,1 4,2 (59,2) (22,7) (4,2) 7,0 14,3 11,0 13,4 19,2 24,4 25,3 25,7 29,5 32,7 32,5
20 40
3 6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Feb-15
ROA ROE
R.O.A. and R.O.E
46.2 46.2 52.5 52.5
20 40 60 80 40 80 120 160 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Feb-15
Efficiency Ratio Coverage of Administrative Expenses with Income from Services
Efficiency
% %
As of February 28, 2015.
19
Strengt gths
» High liquidity (with increased allocation to Central Bank paper). » Peso-based intermediation with high proportion of transactional deposits. » Improved asset mix – Increase in business with private sector.
Opport rtunit ities ies
» Low level of financial depth. » Increase in concentration.
Challen lenges
» Lack of long-term funding. » Reach a greater customer base - Bancarization. » Increase cross-selling of financial products. » Sustain profitability in the face of price controls (on interest rates and fees).
Threats
» Domestic macro: Stagflation and balance of payments pressures. » Government intervention in financial and exchange markets. » “Holdouts vs. Republic of Argentina” conflict.
20
21
Processing
EBA HOLDING
58.0% Votes 100.0% 87.5% 12.5% 21.6% Shares 97% 77% Insurance 3% 95% 100% 100% 95% 5% 5% Collection
22
Number of
Branches Employees Clients (*)
Bank 260 5,485 3,011
209 5,174 4,701 CFA 95 1,119 431
Total
564 564 11,778 8,143
(*) In thousands. (**) 59 branches and 36 offices.
(Consolidated figures)
(**)
US$ bn.
(8.82 Ps./US$)
Assets 114.8 13.0 Net Loans 72.1 8.2 Deposits 68.6 7.8 Equity 10.8 1.2
23
13,8% 9,1% 8,4% 8,3% 3% 7,2% 6,7% 4,5% 4,1% 3,9% 3,6%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Nación Santander Provincia Galicia Macro BBVA HSBC Ciudad Patagonia Credicoop
Market share of loans to the private-sector (1) Market share of private-sector deposits
(1) Includes securitized loans and leasing. (2) Considering CFA, the Bank’s market share of loans to the private-sector would be 8.9%. Source: Argentine Central Bank.
(P) Goverment owned banks
As of January 31, 2015.
18,4% 9,5% 9,3% 8,6% 6% 7,0% 6,2% 5,0% 4,8% 3,6% 3,4%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
Nación Santander Provincia Galicia BBVA Macro Credicoop HSBC Ciudad ICBC
(P) (P) (P) (P) (P) (P)
TOP 10 = 76 % TOP 10 = 70 %
Galicia Galicia (2) 24
(1) Includes securitized loans and leasing. Source: Argentine Central Bank (except for the regional credit-card companies). As of January 31, 2015. 0,0 4,0 8,0 12,0 Santander Galicia Macro BBVA HSBC
Market Share of Loans to the Private Sector (%) (1)
+T.Reg.+CFA
8,0 12,0 Santander Galicia BBVA Macro Credicoop
Market Share of Private-Sector Deposits (%) 25
6.000 9.000 12.000 Santander Galicia BBVA Macro HSBC
Credit Cards Managed (in thousands)
+T.Reg.+CFA 200 400 600 800 Macro Santander Galicia BBVA HSBC
Branches (number)
+T.Reg.+CFA
Source: Argentine Central Bank. As of January 31, 2015.
2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5 7,5 8,5 9,5 10,5 Dic-07 Jun-08 Dic-08 Jun-09 Dic-09 Jun-10 Dic-10 Jun-11 Dic-11 Jun-12 Dic-12 Jun-13 Dic-13 Jun-14 Dic-14
Market Share of Private-Sector Deposits
26
Total: 8.1 million, 42%(1) of Argentina’s economically active population
23% 56% 9% 9% 3%
Consumer Banking Total: 2,931,497
Low Income Medium Income
High Income In Process of Classification
12.1% CAGR since December’02
24% 2% 74%
Corporate Banking Total: 79,024
Agribusiness Corporations Small and Middle-Market Business
60% 30% 10%
Regional Credit-Card Companies Total: 4,701,032
Low Income Middle Income Middle/High Income
58% 39% 3%
CFA Total: 431,239
Low Income Middle Income Middle/High Income
(1) Estimated. As of March 31, 2015.
27
Large Corporations 13% Middle-Market Companies 16% Agribusiness 13% Individuals (Bank) 30% Individuals (Regional Credit-Card Companies) 23% Individuals (CFA) 4% Financial Sector 1% As of March 31, 2015
Consolidated: Ps. 75.1 billion
Large Corporations 18% Middle-Market Companies 22% Agribusiness 18% Individuals 41% Financial Sector 1%
Bank: Ps. 55.1 billion
28
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 <1 month 1-6 months 6-12 months 1-3 years 3-5 years >5 years
43% 34% 10% 12% 1% 0.2%
Billions of Ps.
Maturing within 1 year: 87.1%. US$-denominated loans: 5.4%. Consolidated figures, as of March 31, 2015.
29
Deposits 78% Bonds 3% Subordinated Bonds 2% Other(*) 17%
Bank: Ps. 87.0 billions
Deposits 46% Bonds 36% Financial Entities 18%
CFA: Ps.2.0 billions
Merchants 41% Bonds 23% Financial Entities 36%
Credit Cards: Ps.17.9 billions
20 40 60 80 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar'15
Billions of Ps.
Total Deposits Growth (consolidated)
CAGR: 29%
Time Deposits 52% Checking accounts 24% Savings accounts 24%
Bank Deposits Breakdown by Type
(*) Includes among other: repos, financial institutions, collections on account of third parties, debt with merchants. US$ -denominated deposits: 6.7%.
As of March 31, 2015.
30
3.7% 2.0% 8.6% 107.2%
40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Dic-07 Jun-08 Dic-08 Jun-09 Dic-09 Jun-10 Dic-10 Jun-11 Dic-11 Jun-12 Dic-12 Jun-13 Dic-13 Jun-14 Dic-14
Loan loss reserves / NPLs NPLs / Total loans to the private sector
NPLs / Total loans to the private sector Bank NPL ratio Consumer (T. Reg. + CFA) NPL ratio Loan loss reserves / NPLs As of March 31, 2015. Acquisition of CFA
31
10 12 14 16 18 Dic-07 Jun-08 Dic-08 Jun-09 Dic-09 Jun-10 Dic-10 Jun-11 Dic-11 Jun-12 Dic-12 Jun-13 Dic-13 Jun-14 Dic-14
15.9%
Banco Galicia consolidated.
As of March 31, 2015.
Total Capital Ratio (%)
Minimum Requirement Ps. 7.5 bn Regulatory Capital Ps. 10.7 bn Excess Capital
32
5,8 8,3 10,1 11,7 12,1 12,8 13,4 13,5 5 10 15 20
%
Net Interest Margin - NIM
72,6 65,1 66,1 63,4 64,2 61,6 56,3 56,5 0,0 25,0 50,0 75,0 100,0
%
Efficency Ratio
195 172 469 1.107 1.301 1.837 3.158 881 10,5 8,4 20,4 36,6 30,88 32,1 37,9 34,1 10 20 30 40 50 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000
Millions of Ps.
Net Income and ROE
Net Income ROE
%
5,4 3,8 1,5 1,7 1,7 2,8 3,4 3,7
19 23,4 33,7 50,7 62,8 82,2 106,0 114,8 0,9 0,8 1,9 2,9 2,6 3,4 3,6 3,6 1 2 3 4 5 30 60 90 120
Billions of Ps.
Total Assets, Public Sector Exposure and ROA
Total Assets Exposure to the Non-Financial Public Sector ROA
33
34
2.756 1.971 4.727 524 2.672 (9) 641 881 Net Income Net Financial Income Income Tax Net Income from Services Operating Income Net Charge for Loan Losses Administrative Expenses Net Other Income/Losses 58% 42% 100% 11% 57% 0% 14% 19% 224 625 849
683
96 107
% Change 9 46 22 (18) 34 (113) 18 14 Variation 3M 2014
3M 2015
35
544 195 739 75 254
265 46
2.756 1.971 4.727 524 2.672 (9) 641 881 Net Income Net Financial Income Income Tax Net Income from Services Operating Income Net Charge for Loan Losses Administrative Expenses Net Other Income/Losses
% Change 25 11 19 17 10
71 6 % Change 9 46 22
34
18 14 Variation 4Q14 Variation 1Q14 1Q15
224 625 849
683
96 107
36
58% 42% 100% 11% 57% 0% 14% 19%
Dec-02 Mar-15 Abs. %
·Employees 6,058 11,785 5,727 95
4,057 5,485 1,428 35
1,904 5,174 3,270 172
1,119
97 7 (90) (93) ·Distribution Platform Branches
229 260 31 14
87 209 122 140
95 ·Electronic Banking Transactions (1)(in thousands, per month) 4,996 48,645 43,649 874 ·Products Deposit Accounts (*) 1,063 3,028 1,965 185 Credit Cards (*) 1,596 12,181 10,585 663
498 2,970 2,472 496
1,098 9,045 7,947 724
166 Debit Cards(*) 801 1,219 418 52 ·Client Base (*) 2,013 8,064 6,051 301
(*) In thousands.
Variation
37
» Consumer finance to medium and low income segments. » Merchant acquirer and payment processing services provider to proprietary credit cards. » Largest credit card issuer in Argentina with over: » 3.1 million active accounts and 8.6 million cards issued. » 209 branches and 55 offices across the country. » 36% market share in purchase volume in the interior of Argentina (excluding the city and the
province of Buenos Aires) and 14% nationwide.
» Second largest merchant acquirer with over 250,000 affiliated merchants. » Largest independent payment processor with more than 142 million annual transactions.
In millions of Ps.
3M 2014 3M 2015 Assets 13,795 17,475 Loans 12,323 16,175 Net Worth 2,501 3,202 Net Income 131 131 339 339 ROE 21.6% 43.1%
38
39
» Consumer finance to medium and low income segments. » Leader in Personal Loans within consumer finance institutions. » More than 20 years in the market with strong brand: » 645,000 current clients (segment C1, C2, C3, D1) – more than 1 million historical clients. » 295,000 loans granted in 2014 and 77,000 during the 2015. » 244,000 statements as of March 31, 2015 (vs 155,000 as of March 31, 2014). » Loans in pesos, no guarantee, fixed interest rate. » 130 branches (59 Branches and 71 minibranches).
In millions of Ps.
3M 2014 3M 2015 Assets 4,341 4,561 Loans 3,918 4,050(*) Net Worth 1,129 1,318 Net Income 44 42 ROE 16.0% 13.1%
(*) Includes $176M loan portfolio managed by third parties
March 2015
(In millions of Ps. except percentages). It does not include accrued interest.
Cash loans. Granted in branches. 1,460 47% Pay ayroll ll loans. Government employees, pensioners, military and members of mutuals. 331 11% Loans for the the acquisit isitio ion of goods. Granted through retail merchants associated with CFA. 231 7% Microfin inanc ance. Entrepreneurs and Self-employeed.
suer of Visa and Master erCard credit dit cards. Cross-selling to current clients and to open market clients. 1,094 35% Total al 3,116 100% Insu suran ance (casu sualty alty, , life, , burial al, , purchase ase). ). Issu suer of debit cards associat iated ed with sav avin ing accounts and time depo posit sits, , for ret etir ired people ple and pens nsio ione ners.
40
12.5% 87.5%
Insurance company founded in 1996 and originally aimed at individuals' insurance that is currently broadening its strategy to cover corporate insurance. Retirement insurance company. It manages voluntary retirement and pension plans. Insurance broker of the corporate segment, which offers coverage in those lines not marketed by Galicia Seguros. 41
Positioning Certifications Risk Rating
Homeowners Insurance Ranked 1st 11.3 % Market Share Theft Ranked 1st 15.7% Market Share Group Life Ranked 5th 6.0% Market Share Personal Accidents Ranked 3rd 8.3% Market Share Miscellaneous Risks Ranked 8th 1.9% Market Share FixScr (Affiliate of Fitch Ratings): domestic rating of financial strength AA-(arg) Category. Bureau Veritas Certification: ISO 9001:2008 certification for the following processes: -receipt of claims
Annual Turnover: AR$ 1.7 billion (2014) Policies in force: 3.3 million (credit-related insurance) and 5.4 million (voluntary insurance).
General Data
42
Nevada and Compañía Financiera Argentina).
Main Business Partners
Business Partners' Branches Telemarketing Specialized Insurance Stands ATMs Specialized Salesforce Internet
43
Fiscal Year: July 1st to June 30th
31% 60% 64% 71% 70%
ROE
44