Ensuring prosperity through our Bicentennial Since its birth in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
1 Ensuring prosperity through our Bicentennial Since its birth in 1836, Texas has fostered a culture of bold, creative, and enduring people who have seized the opportunities this special land offers to build lives, communities, and
Since its birth in 1836, Texas has fostered a culture
seized the opportunities this special land offers… to build lives, communities, and an economic engine that powers prosperity.
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Texas has outperformed the US economy for the last quarter century.
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Texas Prosperity
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 400
OIL PRICE COLLAPSE EMERGING MARKETS TAKE OFF US HOUSING CRASH GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS LOW OIL PRICES MID-1990s EXPANSION 2000s EMERGING MARKETS BOOM POST CRISIS
1978
2.1% 3.1%
STAGFLATION & CRISES
3.1% 5.4% 3.2%
350 300 250 200 150 100 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Texas CAGR (%)
Real GDP in Texas and the US, Index 100 = 1977
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Texas Prosperity
Individual Texans and their families have benefited from rising wages and a low cost of living.
Source: BOC: CPS, Missouri Economic Research and Information Center 53
OIL PRICE COLLAPSE EMERGING MARKETS TAKE OFF US HOUSING CRASH GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS LOW OIL PRICES MID-1990s EXPANSION 2000s EMERGING MARKETS BOOM POST CRISIS
1984 2014 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42
Real Household Median Incomes in Texas and the US, 1984-2015
Texas CAGR (%)
1.0% 2.0% 0.2% 1.4%
Cost of Living Index
U.S. Index
Texas in $1,000
Significant population growth and demographic shifts will occur over next two decades,
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THE CASE FOR ACTION
Source: Steve Murdock
Population Growth by Ethnicity
Persons
45M 40M 35M 30M 25M 20M 15M 10M 5M 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Non-Hispanic White Total Black Total Hispanic Total Other Total
Significant population growth and demographic shifts will occur over next two decades,
THE CASE FOR ACTION
Must add 4.5 - 7.8 million new jobs by 2036 to maintain today’s rate of 3.4% unemployment
Roughly the equivalent of the number of jobs in DFW & Houston metro areas today
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm employment, November 2017
necessitating substantial job creation.
Yet the current talent pipeline is insufficient,
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in 2018
in 2025 THE CASE FOR ACTION
Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce; Houston Endowment
and educational outcomes are slipping.
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Grade/Subject Texas’ US Rank 2015 Texas’ US Rank 2017 Change in Ranking 4TH READING 40th 46th 6 4TH MATH 11th 19th 8 8TH READING 39th 41st 2 8TH MATH 23rd 24th 1
State Rankings On National Assessment Of Educational Progress (NAEP)
Yet the current talent pipeline is insufficient,
THE CASE FOR ACTION
Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress; Education Week
Category Texas’ US Rank 2018 Overall 41st K-12 Achievement 29th Chance for Success 42nd School Finance 41st
Quality Counts Report State Rankings
Healthcare costs are rising, crowding out investments in other priorities.
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$49B
in total state HHS spend
Growth in health and human services (HHS) costs will outpace tax base growth going forward…
6%
annual healthcare spend increase
2%
growth of tax base (to fund costs)
STATE HEALTHCARE EXPENDITURES
while Texans struggle to access appropriate care, and poor outcomes persist.
50th
in uninsured rate
45th
in primary care physicians per capita
200+
counties have mental health physician shortage
40th
in obesity ranking
43rd
in maternal health outcomes
33rd
in mental health
THE CASE FOR ACTION
Source: Texas Comptroller Data, America Health Ratings, 2016 Annual Report
Transportation Infrastructure needs and costs are increasing while funding falls short.
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THE CASE FOR ACTION
Source: Texas Transportation Institute, Moody’s, TXDOT, Texas Comptroller
Cost of congestion per auto commuter by metro area (non-truck), USD (2014)1 Vehicle miles traveled and revenue from gas tax, (actuals through 2017, projected 2018-2036)
Since 2000, congestion costs in Texas have risen 1.7% per year while falling in the US overall, reducing one of Texas’s historical advantages
2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2005 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 2040 1995
Texas US
2000 2014
$999 $1166
2000 2014
$1223 $1189
+16.7%
State government must be equipped to perform well in an age of increasing scale and complexity.
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THE CASE FOR ACTION
dedicated to maintaining current systems
Nearly
Percent of State Agencies with Substantial Data Analytic Capabilities
LACK Substantial Analytic Capability HAVE Substantial Analytic Capability
$100-$500M $500M-$1B $1B-$5B $5B+
state contracts
The largest contract is more than $16 BILLION
Source: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Information Resources
Preface, Texas 2000 Commission Report
Rather than yield the future to a course of events imposed from outside, we are confident that Texans will choose to rely on a great, long-standing asset: the determination to shape their own destinies.
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Setting a Long-Term Vision with the 2036 Strategic Plan
Focusing on 6 Pillars to influence policy at the state level
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Education & Workforce Health & Human Services Infrastructure Natural Resources Safety & Justice Government Performance
Continuously Measuring Progress
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Monitor performance indicators through implementation & adjust course Use insights to shape policy Extract business intelligence from state data
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Insights for Action: dataplatform.texas2036.org
A first-of-its-kind Texas data platform for informing policy- and decision-making
Our optimism is rooted in the belief that we can influence our future before trouble comes… creating the future for our children and grandchildren to live the Texas dream.
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T.R. Fehrenbach
Out of the frontier experience, certainly, came much of the characteristic empirical, hard, non-ideological, & belligerent mentality.
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