Aviation Demand Forecasts Probabilistic Forecast Peer review - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 11, 2022 •184 likes •258 views

Aviation Demand Forecasts Probabilistic Forecast Peer review Key issues and trends Sensitivity analysis Ongoing monitoring Last forecast refresh June 2016 2045 design day forecast & modeling

Aviation Demand Forecasts • Probabilistic Forecast – Peer review – Key issues and trends – Sensitivity analysis • Ongoing monitoring – Last forecast refresh – June 2016 – 2045 design day forecast & modeling – Review of other industry forecasts • Key Questions: – Are forecasts still appropriate planning inputs for ongoing planning & development? – When will we reach 21 Million Annual Passengers? 1
PDX PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF ENPLANED PASSENGERS 25 Enplaned passengers (millions) 21.3 Planning Forecast 20 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP) 15 13.4 10 Actual Activity through CY 2018 8.4 5 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2 Sources: Historical: Port of Portland records. 2010 Master Plan forecasts (2010 MP): Jacobs Consultancy and NEXTOR,
PDX TOTAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECASTS 700 Total aircraft operations (thousands) 2010 MP High (90%) 600 2010 MP Median (50%) 567 Planning Forecast 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million 500 2010 MP Low (10%) Annual Passengers (27 MAP) 400 378 300 244 200 100 Actual Activity through CY 2018 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Sources: Historical: Port of Portland records. 2008 Master Plan forecasts (2008 MP): Jacobs Consultancy and NEXTOR, April 2008. 3
PDX PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF TOTAL AIR CARGO 1.2 Total cargo (millions of short tons) 2010 MP High (90%) 1.0 Planning Forecast 972 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP) 0.8 732 0.6 524 0.4 0.2 Actual Activity through CY 2018 0.0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Sources: Historical: Port of Portland records. 2010 Master Plan forecasts (2010 MP): Jacobs Consultancy 4
Planning Forecast 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP) Actual Activity through CY 2018 5
Key Issues & Trends • 10 years of airline profitability • Outlook remains strong for business and leisure travel • Rate of growth is slowing • Cargo & e-commerce growth • Growth related to Planning Activity Levels (PALs) – When do we expect to reach 21 Million Annual Passengers? – Why is 21 Million Annual Passengers important? 6
Comparison of Actual to Forecast 7

Download Presentation

Download Policy: The content available on the website is offered to you 'AS IS' for your personal information and use only. It cannot be commercialized, licensed, or distributed on other websites without prior consent from the author. To download a presentation, simply click this link. If you encounter any difficulties during the download process, it's possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.

Recommend

1 Forecasts of Aviation Demand 2 Airpor ort Pa t Past/Fut uture Pe Perfor orman ance

| Vermont Aviation Advisory Council March 11, 2019 1 Forecasts of Aviation Demand 2 Airpor ort Pa t Past/Fut uture Pe Perfor orman ance Airport Performance Metrics Population; Based Aircraft; Fuel Sales (100LL and Jet A)

626 views • 24 slides

Aviation Demand Forecasts Probabilistic Forecast Peer Review Key Issues and

Aviation Demand Forecasts Probabilistic Forecast Peer Review Key Issues and Trends Sensitivity Analysis Ongoing monitoring 1 2 3 4 5

602 views • 5 slides

Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather Retiring Legacy CONUS Area Forecasts (FAs), to Utilize

Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather Retiring Legacy CONUS Area Forecasts (FAs), to Utilize Improved NWS Aviation Weather Products and Services July 13, 2017 Kevin Johnston FAA; Kevin Stone NOAA/NWS NOAA Content Overview of the

873 views • 17 slides

TO MEET THE RAPID INCREASE IN DEMAND FOR AVIATION PROFESSIONALS Capt. Bobby MAMAHIT Head of Human

AVIATION TRAINING DEVELOPMENT IN INDONESIA TO MEET THE RAPID INCREASE IN DEMAND FOR AVIATION PROFESSIONALS Capt. Bobby MAMAHIT Head of Human Resources Development on Transport Agency Trainair Plus Global Symposium, 25-28 September 2012 CONTENT

387 views • 20 slides

Are Load Forecasters Rational? A Statistical Analysis of Electricity Demand Forecasts Issued by

Are Load Forecasters Rational? A Statistical Analysis of Electricity Demand Forecasts Issued by the New York Independent System Operator Arthur A. Small, III Venti Risk Management Third Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

303 views • 16 slides

Verification of nowcasts and short-range forecasts, including aviation weather Barbara Brown

Verification of nowcasts and short-range forecasts, including aviation weather Barbara Brown NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, USA WMO WWRP 4th International Symposium on Nowcasting and Very-short-range Forecast 2016 (WSN16) Hong Kong; July 2016

641 views • 31 slides

The Impact of Covid-19 on Commercial Aviation Supply & Demand Rob Morris Global Head of

22 nd September 2020 The Impact of Covid-19 on Commercial Aviation Supply & Demand Rob Morris Global Head of Consultancy 1 cirium.com Disclaimer of Liability The material and information contained on this presentation is for general

964 views • 29 slides

Aviation Market Overview Martin Sutton, Executive Director Standard Chartered Bank Aviation

School of Aviation Finance Aviation Market Overview Martin Sutton, Executive Director Standard Chartered Bank Aviation Market Overview January 2016 Martin Sutton Standard Chartered Bank Industry Overview AIRCRAFT DEMAND DRIVEN BY GDP

658 views • 40 slides

Huntsville International Airport Master Plan Update Public Information Meeting June 28, 201 7

Huntsville International Airport Master Plan Update Public Information Meeting June 28, 201 7 Agenda Welcome and introductions Master planning process Inventory of existing conditions Forecasts of aviation demand Facility

1.14k views • 65 slides

Federal Ministry of Aviation Nigerias Aviation Sector A Presentation to the Senate Committee On

Federal Ministry of Aviation Nigerias Aviation Sector A Presentation to the Senate Committee On Aviation By Honorable Minister of Aviation, Princess Stella Adaeze Oduah OON Tuesday 10 th December, 2013 The unfortunate Associated Airlines

1.74k views • 152 slides

An Interactive Workshop Prague, 20-23 Sept 2018 Trang Dao, MD, Inc Consultant, Aviation

6 th ESAM Trust and Care for Aviation Safety Joint meeting with ASMA, The Czech Society of Aviation Medicine (CZAAM), & the Czech Aeronautical Institute Psychiatry Clinical Readings Of Aviation Accident Investigators Reports: An

712 views • 36 slides

Federal Aviation Administration Federal Aviation Administration First Regional Aviation Medicine

Federal Aviation Administration Federal Aviation Administration First Regional Aviation Medicine Team Meeting Air Traffic Organization Business Continuity Planning for Pandemic Response Presented to: ICAO Regional Aviation Medicine Team

146 views • 10 slides

Receive 4 forecasts from different NWP models. One problem is resolution: UK NWP models have a

GL Garrad Hassan Short term power forecasts for large offshore wind turbine arrays Require accurate wind (and hence power) forecasts for 4, 24 and 48 hours in the future for trading purposes. Receive 4 forecasts from different NWP models. One

435 views • 39 slides

The Key Players US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) DG-Move/European Aviation Safety

The Key Players US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) DG-Move/European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) EU Member State National Aviation Safety Authorities Aircraft Manufacturers Public Interest Advocacy Groups (Minor role)

491 views • 17 slides

A Rising Player in Aviation Finance HUANG Bo, Chief Commercial Officer, CMB Financial Leasing

A Rising Player in Aviation Finance HUANG Bo, Chief Commercial Officer, CMB Financial Leasing Rising Player in Aviation Finance Huang Bo Chief Commercial Officer CMB Leasing Co., Ltd. Contents Huge Demand of China Aviation Industry

417 views • 26 slides

KANSAS AVIATION B o b B r o c k A v i a t i o n D i r e c t o r D i v i s i o n o f A v i a

KANSAS AVIATION B o b B r o c k A v i a t i o n D i r e c t o r D i v i s i o n o f A v i a t i o n 1 Truck Parking System (TPIMS) Inspection Joint KDOT Aviation & Bridge Effort Public Safety Impact: Goodland to

366 views • 8 slides

Case Study: Finding Factions from Ukrainian Legislative Data Tom Magelinski

<Your Name> Case Study: Finding Factions from Ukrainian Legislative Data Tom Magelinski tmagelin@andrew.cmu.edu Center for Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/ The Problem

504 views • 18 slides

Almost ( MP ) -based substructural logics Petr Cintula 1 Carles Noguera 2 1 Institute of Computer

Almost ( MP ) -based substructural logics Petr Cintula 1 Carles Noguera 2 1 Institute of Computer Science, Czech Academy of Sciences Prague, Czech Republic 2 Artificial Intelligence Research Institute (IIIA - CSIC) Bellaterra, Catalonia Petr

439 views • 20 slides

Partial Trace Regression and Low-Rank Kraus Decomposition Hachem Kadri 1 , St ephane Ayache 1 ,

Partial Trace Regression and Low-Rank Kraus Decomposition Hachem Kadri 1 , St ephane Ayache 1 , Riikka Huusari 2 , Alain Rakotomamonjy 3 , 4 , Liva Ralaivola 4 1 Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, LIS, Marseille, France 2 Helsinki Institute for

515 views • 33 slides

CSE 311: Foundations of Computing Lecture 7: Logical Inference continued Last Class: Proofs

CSE 311: Foundations of Computing Lecture 7: Logical Inference continued Last Class: Proofs Start with hypotheses and facts Use rules of inference to extend set of facts Result is proved when it is included in the set Last class: An

513 views • 35 slides

The Supply Side of the Market The Supply Side of the Market in in Three Parts: Three Parts:

Econ Dept, UMR Presents The Supply Side of the Market The Supply Side of the Market in in Three Parts: Three Parts: I. An Introduction to Supply and I. An Introduction to Supply and Producer Surplus Producer Surplus II. The Production

524 views • 34 slides

Detection of On-Road Vehicles Emanating GPS Interference Gorkem Kar Hossen Mustafa Yan Wang

Detection of On-Road Vehicles Emanating GPS Interference Gorkem Kar Hossen Mustafa Yan Wang Yingying Chen Wenyuan Xu Marco Gruteser Tam Vu Winlab Winter Research Review ACM CCS 2014 1 GPS in Critical Infrastructures 2 GPS Jammers 3

259 views • 21 slides

Designing ESS Machine Protection Systems highly integrated into operations and commissioning

Designing ESS Machine Protection Systems highly integrated into operations and commissioning Enric Bargall Lead Analyst for Machine Protection and Dependability European Spallation Source ERIC Outline Introduction European Spallation

275 views • 25 slides

Optical flow Cordelia Schmid Motion field The motion field is the projection of the 3D scene

Optical flow Cordelia Schmid Motion field The motion field is the projection of the 3D scene motion into the image Optical flow Definition: optical flow is the apparent motion of brightness patterns in the image Ideally, optical

593 views • 44 slides