1 Forecasts of Aviation Demand 2 Airpor ort Pa t Past/Fut - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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| Vermont Aviation Advisory Council March 11, 2019 1 Forecasts of Aviation Demand 2 Airpor ort Pa t Past/Fut uture Pe Perfor orman ance Airport Performance Metrics Population; Based Aircraft; Fuel Sales (100LL and Jet A)

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SLIDE 1

| Vermont Aviation Advisory Council

March 11, 2019

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SLIDE 2

Forecasts of Aviation Demand

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SLIDE 3

Airpor

  • rt Pa

t Past/Fut uture Pe Perfor

  • rman

ance

▪Airport Performance Metrics

‒ Population; Based Aircraft; Fuel Sales (100LL and Jet A)

▪Vermont State Performance vs. National Trends

‒ Fuel Sales; Based Aircraft; Hours Flown Benchmark

▪High Growth

‒ Franklin County (FSO), Northeast Kingdom Int’l (EFK), Burlington Int’l (BTV), Morrisville-Stowe (MVL), and Middlebury (6B0)

▪Baseline Growth

‒ Hartness (VSF), Shelburne (VT8), John Boylan (5B1), Post Mills (2B9), Deerfield Valley (4V8)

▪Lower Growth

‒ Caledonia (CDA), Rutland (RUT), William H. Morse (DDH), Basin Harbor (B06), Warren-Sugarbush (0B7)

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SLIDE 4

Based Aircr craf aft

▪ Historic Trends

‒ (-1.33%) - 12 year Trend (2005: 581 -> 2017: 448) ‒ (-1.7%) - Nationwide 2010-2016 Piston (Single/Multi)

▪ Future Projections

‒ (-0.8%) Average Annual Growth in Piston ‒ 1.9% Average Annual Growth in Turbine/Jet

▪ Notable Disproportionate Aircraft Type Breakdown

‒ 33/501 (6.5%) are Jet or Multi, Remainder Single/Glider/Ultralight

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SLIDE 5

Fuel Sales Trend nds (Operat ation

  • ns)

▪ Jet-A

‒ 1.43% Statewide 2013-2016 (GA VTrans Airports Only) ‒ -3.9% Statewide 2006-2016 ‒ Top Performers: FSO, EFK, MVL ‒ Greatest Declines: DDH, VSF, BTV (Airline Related)

▪ Avgas

‒ 0.64% Statewide 2013-2016 (GA VTrans Airports Only) ‒ -3.24% Statewide 2006-2016 ‒ Top Performers: VSF, MVL, EFK, BTV, MPV, FSO ‒ Greatest Declines: CDA, RUT

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SLIDE 6

VT vs. FAA Nation

  • nal

al Foreca cast

Historic Vermont FAA Aerospace 100LL 0.025%

  • 1.00%

Jet A

  • 0.01%

0.40% Based AC

  • 1.33%
  • 1.70%

(pistons) Projected Vermont FAA Aerospace 100LL 0.038%

  • 0.40%

Jet A 0.048% 1.90% Based AC

  • 0.626%
  • 0.80%

(pistons)

▪FAA Aerospace Forecast

‒ Hours Flown: Piston -0.60%, Turbine 2.4% ‒ GA Aircraft: Piston -0.80%; Turbine 1.9%

Industry Trends Favor Jet and Turbine Growth

VT Aircraft Mix Consistent with VT Performance vs. National Trends (Higher Piston/100LL 6

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SLIDE 7

Prop

  • pos
  • sed VASP Growt

wth h Rates

Decline Represents Retirement or Elimination of Older, Typically Less-Active Aircraft Flying Clubs and Fractional Ownership in GA Aircraft Will Allow Operations to Increase While Based Aircraft Decrease

Operations Base 0.42 High 0.84 Low 0.21 Based Aircraft Base

  • 1.61%

High 1.20% Low

  • 2.39%

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SLIDE 8

Foreca cast Su t Summar ary

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For

  • recas

ast t Period

  • d

His istor

  • ric

ical al 20 20-Year ar Air irpor

  • rt

2004 2004 2017 2017 CAGR TAF Low Ave verag age Hig igh Bas asin in Harbor

  • N/A

2,211 2,305 2,506 Burlin lington

  • n Internati

tion

  • nal

al 95,106 67,110

  • 2.25%

73,743 79,307 82,697 89,897 Cale ledon

  • nia

a Cou

  • unty

2,050 7,380 12.35% 7,380 7,696 8,025 8,724 Deerfie ield ld Vall alley y Region

  • nal

al

  • N/A

3,233 3,376 3,665 Edwar ard F.

  • F. Knap

app 32,000 24,125

  • 2.54%

24,125 25,159 26,234 28,518 Fr Fran ankli klin Cou

  • unty

21,400 10,095

  • 6.60%

10,095 10,528 10,978 11,933 Har artn tness Sta tate 9,300 6,611

  • 3.05%

6,611 6,894 7,189 7,815 Jo John H. Boyl ylan an

  • N/A

425 448 497 Mid iddle lebury y St State te 35,250 10,900

  • 10.12%

10,900 11,367 11,853 12,885 Mor

  • rris

isvill ille-Stow

  • we

18,020 11,976

  • 3.65%

6,358 6,658 6,972 7,643 Nor

  • rth

theas ast t Kin ingdom

  • m Inter

ternati tion

  • nal

al 7,140 9,452 2.58% 9,452 9,552 9,652 9,856 Pos

  • st

t Mil ills ls 9,510 4,330

  • 6.90%

4,330 4,516 4,709 5,119 Ru Rutlan and – S.

  • S. VT Region
  • nal

al 29,376 31,770 0.71% 13,901 12,881 13,432 14,601 Sh Shelb lburne

  • N/A

4,418 4,326 4,418 Warren-Su Sugar arbush 22,500 17,620

  • 2.20%

17,620 18,375 19,161 20,829 Wil illi liam am H. Mor

  • rse

26,250 14,377

  • 5.33%

14,377 14,863 15,498 16,847 St State te Total al 307,902 215,746

  • 2.90%

198,892 218,083 226,855 245,753

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SLIDE 9

Future System Performance

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SLIDE 10

System Pe Perfor

  • rman

ance ce Analysis

System-Wide Airside & Landside Priori rioriti ties Airside Runways Taxiways Lighting NAVAIDS Approaches Landside Terminal(s) Management/Staffing Aeronautical Businesses/Services Geo eographic Se Service/Coverage Area Perf erform rmance Performance “Reach” Identifies Land Area, Population, and Economic Centers Served and Highlights Towns/Regions, People, and Businesses of State that May be Underserved Minimum Facility y & Se Service Obj bjecti tives Perf erformance System Goa

  • als

Identifies Facility Targets within each VTSASP Category that Align with System Goals and Highlights Deficits

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SLIDE 11

0% 0% 20% 0% 40% 0% 60% 0% 80% 0% 100 00% App pproa

  • ach

Sno now R Rem emov

  • val

al Ligh ghting ng Fu Fuel el Staff ffing ng Ru Runw nway

Category y 3 3 Performan ance

0% 0% 20% 0% 40% 0% 60% 0% 80% 0% 100 00% Re Rental al Car ars Re Repai air S Service App pproa

  • ach

Ameni nities Secur urity Saf afety Inter ermoda dal Net etwork Airline S Service Te Terminal al

Category y 4 4 Performan ance

Curren ent Pe Perfor

  • rman

ance ce - Minimums

0% 0% 20% 0% 40% 0% 60% 0% 80% 0% 100 00% Fu Fuel el Basi sic She helter er Man anag agement nt Ru Runw nway

Category y 1 1 Performan ance

0% 0% 20% 0% 40% 0% 60% 0% 80% 0% 100 00% App pproa

  • ach

NAVA VAID FB FBO Staff ffing ng Man anag agement nt Fu Fuel el Ru Runw nway Categ egor

  • ry 2 Perfor

forman ance

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SLIDE 12

Curren ent Pe Perfor

  • rman

ance ce - Reach

VASP P Air irpo ports Cover erage (30 (30-Minute Driv ive e Tim Time) e) Co Cover erage (% (% Tot

  • tal)

l)

Land Area Coverage 57% Population Coverage 93% Employment Center Coverage 88%

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SLIDE 13

Curren ent Pe Perfor

  • rman

ance ce - Ru Runwa ways

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SLIDE 14

Curren ent Pe Perfor

  • rman

ance ce - Approa

  • ache

hes

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SLIDE 15

Curren ent Pe Perfor

  • rman

ance ce - Fuel

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SLIDE 16

System Needs Prior

  • riti

tiza zation

  • n

▪ Priority 1

  • Meeting Minimum Facility & Service Objectives

▪ Priority 2

  • Maximizing Existing Facilities and Infrastructure (Partial Credit)

▪ Priority 3

  • Facilities & Services Above/Beyond VASP
  • Private Owned/Public Use Infrastructure
  • Large/Comprehensive Projects

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SLIDE 17

VASP SP – Prior

  • rity

ty 1

Airport Projects to Improve Future Performance

Bas asin in Har Harbor

  • Basic Terminal Building/Shelter

Burlin lington Inter ternatio ional

  • Meets Objectives

Cale aledonia ia County State

  • Meets Objectives

Deerfie ield Valle lley Regional1/

  • Full-Time Airport Manager On-Site (Seasonal OK)

Edw dward F. Knap napp State

  • Meets Objectives

Frankli klin County State

  • Meets Objectives

Har Hartness State

  • Meets Objectives

Joh

  • hn H. Boyl
  • ylan State
  • Basic Terminal Building/Shelter
  • Part-Time Airport Manager On-Site (Seasonal OK)

Middle lebury State

  • Non-Precision Approach Capability

Mor

  • rris

isvill ille-St Stowe State

  • Runway Extension/Maximize Runway Length
  • Jet-A Fuel Service

Nor Northeast t King ngdom

  • m Inter

ternatio ional

  • Precision Approach Capability

Pos

  • st Mills

lls1/

  • Basic Terminal Building/Shelter

Rutla tland-So South thern Vermon

  • nt Regio

ional

  • Meets Objectives

She helb lburne1/

  • Non-Precision Approach Capability

War arren-Su Sugarbush1/

1/

  • Non-Precision Approach Capability

Wi Willi lliam H. Mor

  • rse State
  • Runway Extension/Maximize Runway Length

1/ Privately Owned

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SLIDE 18

VASP SP – Prior

  • rity

ty 2

Airport Projects to Improve Future Performance

Bas asin in Har Harbor

  • Meets Objectives

Burlin lington Inter ternatio ional

  • Meets Objectives

Cale aledonia ia County State

  • Aircraft/Avionics Maintenance Svcs. On-Site
  • Full-Time Airport Manager On-Site
  • Full-Time Operations Staff On-Site
  • 100LL and Jet-A Self Service Aviation Fuel
  • Full Service FBO On-Site Full-Time

Deerfie ield Valle lley Regional1/

  • 100LL Self-Service Aviation Fuel on Site
  • Single-Svc. SASO/Full-Svc. FBO on Site (Part-Time OK)
  • Part-Time Operations Staff On-Site or Contracted
  • GPS Instrument Approach Procedure

Edw dward F. Knap napp State

  • 100LL and Jet-A Self Service Aviation Fuel on Site

Frankli klin County State

  • Full-Time Airport Manager On-Site
  • Full-Time Operations Staff On-Site
  • 100LL & Jet-A Self Svc. Aviation Fuel on Site
  • Full Service FBO On-Site Full-Time
  • Aircraft /Avionics Maintenance Svcs. On-Site
  • Full-Time Airport Manager On-Site

Har Hartness State

  • Meets Objectives

Joh

  • hn H. Boyl
  • ylan State
  • MoGas or 100LL On-Site

Middle lebury State

  • GPS Instrument Approach Procedure
  • 100LL Self-Service Aviation Fuel on Site
  • Full-Time Airport Manager On-Site (Seasonal OK)
  • Part-Time Operations Staff On-Site or Contracted
  • Single-Svc. SASO/Full-Svc. FBO on Site (Part-Time OK)
  • Lighted Windsock

Mor

  • rris

isvill ille-St Stowe State

  • Full-Time Operations Staff On-Site
  • 100LL and Jet-A Self Service Aviation Fuel on Site
  • Full Service FBO On-Site Full-Time
  • Aircraft /Avionics Maintenance Services On-Site

Nor Northeast t King ngdom

  • m Inter

ternatio ional

  • Meets Objectives

Pos

  • st Mills

lls1/

  • MoGas or 100LL On-Site

Rutla tland-So South thern Vermon

  • nt Regio

ional

  • Airport Security Measures (SIDA, Badging, Staff etc.)
  • Aircraft/Avionics Maintenance Svcs. on Site
  • Rental Cars
  • On-Site Concessions or Restaurant

She helb lburne1/

  • Full-Time Airport Manager On-Site (Seasonal OK)
  • Part-Time Operations Staff On-Site or Contracted
  • Single-Svc. SASO/Full-Svc. FBO on Site (Part-Time OK)
  • Lighted Windsock
  • 100LL Self-Service Aviation Fuel on Site

War arren-Su Sugarbush1/

1/

  • GPS Instrument Approach Procedure
  • 100LL Self-Service Aviation Fuel on Site
  • Full-Time Airport Manager On-Site (Seasonal OK)
  • Part-Time Operations Staff On-Site or Contracted
  • Single-Svc. SASO/Full-Svc. FBO on Site (Part-Time OK)
  • Lighted Windsock

Wi Willi lliam H. Mor

  • rse State
  • Full-Service FBO On-Site FT (Enhanced Service)
  • Full-Time Operations Staff On-Site
  • 100LL and Jet-A Self Service Aviation Fuel on Site
  • Aircraft /Avionics Maintenance Services On-Site

1/ Privately Owned

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SLIDE 19

VASP SP – Prior

  • rity

ty 3

Airport Projects to Improve Future Performance

Basin Harbor

  • MoGas or 100LL On-Site

Burlington International

  • Meets Objectives

Caledonia County State

  • Terminal Building with Pilot and Visitor Amenities
  • Runway and Taxiway Edge Lighting
  • Runway Extension/Maximize Runway Length

Deerfield Valley Regional1/

  • Runway Extension/Maximize Runway Length

Edward F. Knapp State

  • Meets Objectives

Franklin County State

  • Terminal Building with Pilot and Visitor Amenities
  • Runway and Taxiway Edge Lighting
  • Runway Extension/Maximize Runway Length

Hartness State

  • Meets Objectives

John H. Boylan State

  • Meets Objectives

Middlebury State

  • Runway Extension/Maximize Runway Length

Morrisville-Stowe State

  • Own/Operate Snow Removal Equipment (Additional)

Northeast Kingdom International

  • Meets Objectives

Post Mills1/

  • Meets Objectives

Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional

  • Intermodal Transportation Connections at/near Site
  • ARFF Capability
  • Precision Approach Capability
  • ATCT
  • Improvements to Network/Legacy Airline Service

Shelburne1/

  • Runway Extension/Maximize Runway Length

Warren-Sugarbush1/

  • Runway Extension/Maximize Runway Length

William H. Morse State

  • Terminal Building with Pilot and Visitor Amenities
  • Runway and Taxiway Edge Lighting

1/ Privately Owned

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SLIDE 20

Next Steps

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SLIDE 21

2019 Policy cy Draft Themes

▪Preserving Vulnerable Infrastructure ▪Economic Development ▪Financial Sustainability ▪Project/Investment Prioritization ▪Embracing Technological Developments ▪Aviation Connectivity with Other Modes

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SLIDE 22

Next St Steps

▪ Economic Benefits Assessment Spring/Summer 2019 ▪ Recommendations and Policy Spring 2019 ▪ Public Meetings/Project Completion Summer 2019 ▪ Public/User Engagement Opportunities:

‒ VAAC Briefings (Quarterly) ‒ E-mail/Written Comments (RLucas@MJinc.com) ‒ Summary Public Meetings (Summer)

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SLIDE 23

Proj

  • jec

ect Team

VTrans Staff ▪ Daniel Delabruere- Rail & Aviation Bureau Director ▪ Paul Libby- Senior Project Manager ▪ Costa Pappis– Policy & Planning Manager Consultant Team ▪ Rick Lucas – Project Manager ▪ Scott LeCount - Lead Planner ▪ Subconsultants

‒ Randal Wiedemann - Economic Impact Study ‒ Michael Webber (Webber Air Cargo) – Air Cargo Analysis 23

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SLIDE 24

Questions?

Project Contacts Rick Lucas – Rlucas@mjinc.com (MJ) Paul Libby Paul.Libby@Vermont.gov (Vtrans)

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