Available Water Determinations (AWD) NSW Department of Planning, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Available Water Determinations (AWD) NSW Department of Planning, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 10, 2022 145 likes •472 views

Available Water Determinations (AWD) NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment Water | Deep Singh November 2019 How is an AWD made? Government assumes an extremely dry outlook Low risk 99% Requirements codified in Water

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NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment – Water | Deep Singh November 2019

Available Water Determinations (AWD)

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How is an AWD made?

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Government assumes an extremely dry outlook

  • Low risk – 99%

Requirements codified in Water Sharing Plan

  • Distributed from NSW’s share of the Murray
  • Priority of access to water (towns, domestic, stock, …)
  • Planned Environmental allowances

Annual accounting (July - June)

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Step 1: Assess the supply

  • Water in storage
  • Inflows near certain to eventuate
  • Water in transit that can be

reregulated

  • IVT
  • Snowy
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Step 2: Assess existing commitments

  • Essential / Fixed Requirements
  • Existing allocation
  • Environmental Water Accounts
  • System Losses
  • Evaporation
  • Transmission
  • Operational
  • 2nd year reserves
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Step 3: Assess for AWD

  • =
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Step 4: Announce AWD

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General Security Carryover Env Water Conveyance High Security Towns, S&D Reserves General Security

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How is an AWD made?

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AWDs in the NSW Murray

  • Shared system between NSW, Victoria and SA.
  • NSW and Victoria share the headwater storages and

supply SA.

  • Sharing arrangement governed by the Murray Darling

Basin Agreement.

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AWDs in the NSW Murray

  • Shared system between NSW, Victoria and SA.
  • NSW and Victoria share the headwater storages and supply

SA.

  • Sharing arrangement governed by the Murray Darling Basin

Agreement.

  • Menindee is a shared resource if it is above 480/640 GL

trigger level.

  • Inflows upstream of Albury shared between NSW and Vic.
  • Inflows downstream of Albury belong to generating state.
  • Inflows from the Lower Darling are shared when Menindee is

a shared resource, otherwise they are NSW inflows.

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River Murray system – shared resource

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Climate Conditions

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Allocation Summary

2019-20 High Security General Security Average Carryover Drought Stage Murray 97% 0% 18%

Stage 2

Lower Darling 30% 0% 19%

Stage 4

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Resource Distribution (Nov 2019)

e-water (36* GL) consumptive use (264* GL)

Rules-based Env Water 21 GL Conveyance 140 GL High Security 184 GL (97%)** Towns, S&D 58 GL Wakool Allowance 70 GL Reserves 61 GL 2020/21 high priority needs 126 GL

* indicative breakdown of held environmental water holdings (OEH, TLM, CEWH), refer to note ** includes <1GL (100%) for HS subcategory

Total GS Carryover 300 GL

Total = 960 GL

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Water Balance November 2019

400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 4000 1,540 203 100 214 139 350 203 291 113 960

Supply Distribution Commitments Distribution Gigalitres (GL)

Supply Distribution - NSW share(1) Commitments Distribution - NSW share(1)

SA dilution flow SA non-dilution entitlement MDB Agreement required reserves Water available for allocation (refer to pie chart) Water in storage Estimated use since 1 July IVT Forecast minimum inflows Evaporation River losses upstream of SA

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Comparison to Nov 2018

Item Mid Nov 2018 (GL) Mid Nov 2019 (GL) Comments NSW share of total resources 1,035 960 Low resource due to continuation of dry conditions. less Carryover 520 300 Lower carryover. Environmental 72 21 Primarily RMIF. Towns, Stock, Domestic 54 58 Broken Hill pipeline entitlement added. Conveyance 150 140 Similar. Wakool Loss 40 70 Higher due to June/July 2019 inflows. High Security 185 184 Similar. Reserves 14 187 Higher in anticipation of continued dry conditions, from cumulative resource improvements. General Security 0 Same. Zero due to lack of resource.

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NSW Murray Valley Outlook

as at 15 November 2019

1-Dec-19 1-Feb-20

This figure provides indicative improvements in general security allocations for two forecast snapshots, 1 December 2019 and 1 February

  • 2020. The allocation improvements are indicative only, and do not constitute guaranteed allocations. As of 15 November 2019, General

Security allocation is at 0 per cent, and under 99% inflow conditions, will remain the same for the rest of the water year. Allocation Probability Gigalitres Probability Allocation

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Conveyance Reserves Environmental HS TW, S&D Carryover 0% GS Alloc. 99% Conveyance Reserves Environmental HS TW, S&D Carryover 99% 50% 0% GS Alloc. 0% GS Alloc. 0% GS Alloc. as at 15 Nov 2019

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NSW Murray Valley Outlook

as at 15 August 2019

1-Oct-19 1-Feb-20

This figure provides indicative improvements in general security allocations for two forecast snapshots, 1 October 2019 and 1 February

  • 2020. The allocation improvements are indicative only, and do not constitute guaranteed allocations. As of 15 August 2019, General

Security allocation is at 0 per cent, and under 99% inflow conditions, will remain the same for the rest of the water year. Allocation Probability Gigalitres Probability Allocation 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Conveyance Environmental HS TW, S&D Carryover 0% GS Alloc. 0% GS Alloc. 0% GS Alloc. 8% GS Alloc. 99% 90% 75% 50% Conveyance Environmental HS TW, S&D Carryover 99% 90% 75% 50% 0% GS Alloc. 0% GS Alloc. 9% GS Alloc. 30% GS Alloc. as at 15 Aug 2019

NSW Murray Valley Outlook

as at 15 November 2019

1-Dec-19 1-Feb-20

This figure provides indicative improvements in general security allocations for two forecast snapshots, 1 December 2019 and 1 February

  • 2020. The allocation improvements are indicative only, and do not constitute guaranteed allocations. As of 15 November 2019, General

Security allocation is at 0 per cent, and under 99% inflow conditions, will remain the same for the rest of the water year. Allocation Probability Gigalitres Probability Allocation 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Conveyance Reserves Environmental HS TW, S&D Carryover 0% GS Alloc. 99% Conveyance Reserves Environmental HS TW, S&D Carryover 99% 50% 0% GS Alloc. 0% GS Alloc. 0% GS Alloc. as at 15 Nov 2019

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Climate Outlook

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ENSO

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IOD

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2017/18 and 2018/19 RMS Inflows

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0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

GS AWD Date

General Security AWD 17/18

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Water Availability since 2016

Year Usage (GL) AWD + CO (GL) Trade Out (GL) C/O Forward (GL) 2015/16 860 1330

  • 20

450 2016/17 1370 2400 210 730 2017/18 1540 2050

  • 80

520 2018/19 695 950

  • 85

300

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Bulk Sharing

NSW - Hume 570 GL NSW - Lake Victoria 230 GL NSW - Dartmouth 570 GL SA - Hume 0 GL SA - Lake Victoria 0 GL SA - Dartmouth 342 GL Vic - Hume 570 GL Vic - Lake Victoria 170 GL Vic - Dartmouth 1140 GL

Water In Storages - end of October 2019

TOTAL = 3592 GL

NSW = 1370 GL (38%) SA = 342 GL (10%) Vic = 1880 GL (52%)

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NSW Murray ~ 2250 GL* Victoria ~ 1600 GL SA ~ 750 GL

Approximate values from https://www.mdba.gov.au/managing-water/water-markets-trade/water-markets-product-information

*Excluding supplementary entitlement

Entitlement Volumes (Approximate)

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Thank you

Water Allocation Statements

https://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/water

MDBA Weekly Report

https://www.mdba.gov.au/river-information/weekly-reports

WaterNSW Weekly Report

https://www.waternsw.com.au/supply/regional-nsw/availability

Thank you