August 2016
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August 2016 1 This presentation includes forward-looking statements - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
August 2016 1 This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements relate to future events and expectations and involve known and unknown risks and
August 2016
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This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements relate to future events and expectations and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements about our development of new products and product features; our anticipated growth and growth drivers; our future financial condition and results of operations; our future business, operational and financial performance; and the success and/or market adoption of our products and solutions. We have based these forward-looking statements on our current expectations, assumptions and projections. Our actual results or actions may differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and factors that could cause results to differ materially as described in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Except as may be required by law, Calix, Inc. undertakes no obligation to, and expressly disclaims any obligation to, update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, changes in assumptions
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1. 2. 3. 4.
Calix at a Glance Value Shift from Hardware to Software The Access Market Opportunity Financials Update
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Appendix
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2010 2011 2012 2014 2015
acquisition
Australia expansion
access products acquisition
reseller agreement
Link Cable
GigaCenter
platform
NG-PON2 products
GigaCenter platform Serving over 1,200 customers in more than 70 countries
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22% 66% 12%
Customer Mix - 2015
Tier 1 Tier 2/3 International
Data Center Outside Plant
Broadband Aggregation Optimization Success-based Pay- as-you-grow Architecture
Subscriber Edge
Technology & Service Optimization
E3-48C 716E E7-2 E7-20 E5-48 E5-216F GigaFamily
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E3-8G
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The World’s Most Advanced Operating System for Access Networks
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frequent base code changes
(APIs)
Accelerating rate of change
Spaghetti OS
Services Stacks
Native Apps
On-box Off-box Applications
Services Modules
Pristine base gated OS Accelerating rate of change
AXOS Infrastructure MODULES
Compass/OSS/IT Integration REST SNMP NETCONF / YANG CLI
HARDWARE ABSTRACTION LAYER
Multi-Service Protocols OAM Timing Layer 3 Protocols Host Services Open Flow Topology & Discovery Protocols Layer 2 Protocols Multicast Protocols Traffic Management Performance Monitoring QoS Manager Platform Configuration and Upgrade Diagnostics Syslog OF Config
SERVICE ABSTRACTION LAYER/TRANSPARENT MOPS
Merchant Silicon / New Technology
disaggregated model
interfaces (API)
layer
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eliminates the need to constantly re-test the entire OS, thus maximizing reuse, while leveraging industry standards and
independence from the underlying hardware and allow rapid development for any new access technology
ALWAYS ON. Resilient
third-party or open source monitoring tools
through standard, open interfaces
Rapid delivery of new services, superior customer experience and unparalleled reliability
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Controlled environment Short lifecycle / Easy to replace Partially to fully exposed environments Long lifecycle / Difficult to replace
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Source: Infonetics, Morgan Stanley Research, UBS Research, Barclays Research, Company estimates 14
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Mbps/3 Mbps service
accelerate broadband penetration
Source: FCC Broadband in America (January 2015)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Barclays Research, Nielsen Global Digital Landscape Report March 2015, Nielsen Total Audience 4Q14 Report, Comscore 16
Unified Access Bandwidth on demand Transparent quality of experience VDSL2 Unlicensed Spectrum Wi-Fi 4x4 5G / WiFi GPON EPON XGPON-1 NGPON2 DOCSIS 3.0 CCAP G.fast A2 Unmatched subscriber experience G.hn XGS-PON Community Wi-Fi G.fast A1 HotSpot 2.0 Remote OLT DOCSIS 3.1 FTTH
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Gigabit experience
DOCSIS 3.0 24 Bonded Gigabit GPON DOCSIS 3.1 (initial)
10000
Gigabit FTTH
10G PON XGS/NG-PON2
…
10G XGS/NG-PON2
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Lower Operating Costs
Source: RVA LLC: North American FTTH Accelerates, (Q4 2014), RVA LLC North America FTTH Progress and Impact 2015 (June 2015), Google Fiber Kansas City, Bernstein Proprietary Census. Survey conducted by Haynes and Company (May 2014)
Estimated Operating Expense Savings High Customer Take Rates
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Cincinnati Bell continues to see benefits from fiber rollout
Source: Cincinnati Bell (September 2014)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 100% Aerial/0% MDU 100% Aerial/20% MDU 50% Aerial/0% MDU 50% Aerial/50% MDU Non-Electronics/Sub Electronics/Sub
Source: Suburban FTTP Network Scenarios, Telecom & Networking Equipment, The FTTP Renaissance, Implications for Vendors – Jefferies Group LLC May 6, 2015
Electronics represent ~15-25% of the total capex cost per unit served in a fiber deployment after initial build costs
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company in the world to publicly demonstrate a true gigabit experience via bonded G.fast
with speeds up to with 1.5 Gb/s at 250m
loops < 500 m and speeds from 150Mb/s to >1 Gb/s
multi-tenant housing units in the U.S. (per 2013 ACS) with an estimated more than 50% of these units built before 1980
characterized by difficulties in riser access and restricted building access
when fiber is not available
MDU Riser
GPON/GE G.fast 22
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($ in millions, except per share amounts)
Actual Guidance
Revenues
$107.4 $104.0-$108.0
Non-GAAP gross margin
47.5% 46%-47%
Non-GAAP operating expenses
$53.0* $52.0-$53.0**
Non-GAAP EPS – excluding Occam litigation
$0.02 ($0.04) – $0.00
Non-GAAP EPS – including Occam litigation
($0.04) ($0.09) – ($0.05)
Cash flow from operations
$0.1 Negative
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* Includes approximately $2.8M of Occam litigation-related expenses ** Included approximately $2.4M of Occam litigation-related expenses
Please refer to the reconciliations of Non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in the appendix and on the Investor Relations section of our website
$40.0 $42.0 $44.0 $46.0 $48.0 $50.0 $52.0 $54.0
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
OPERATING EXPENSES IN $M
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Revenues +8% y/y
customers
customers, platforms and geographies
Non-GAAP gross margins of 47.5%
and customer mix
continued ramp of turnkey network improvement project
Non-GAAP operating expenses within guidance
support growth initiatives
higher than expected
Non-GAAP EPS above guidance
higher sales and gross profits
items in line with expectations
($0.15) ($0.10) ($0.05) $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
NON-GAAP EPS 44.8% 48.1% 49.2% 51.0% 49.3% 46.5% 48.1% 47.5% 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Gross Margin (%) $60.0M $70.0M $80.0M $90.0M $100.0M $110.0M $120.0M 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Domestic Revenues International Revenues
Please refer to the reconciliations of Non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in the appendix and on the Investor Relations section of our website
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Revenues +8% y/y
customers, platforms and geographies
network improvement project
Non-GAAP gross margins of 47.8%
product and customer mix
network improvement program
Non-GAAP operating expenses +5% ex- litigation
growth initiatives
expenses drove ~50% of total y/y increase
Non-GAAP EPS of ($0.13) $0.00 ex- litigation
expenses and lower gross margins
litigation expenses
45.2% 47.9% 46.9% 50.1% 47.8% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(7.0%) 17.5% (0.6%) 3.5% 8.2% 5.9% 16.7% 3.4% 15.9% 9.6% 13.6% 5.3%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H Revenue (% change) Operating Expenses (% change) Operating Expenses ex-litigation (% change) $0.05 $0.16 $0.07 ($0.00) ($0.13) $0.03 ($0.00) ($0.15) ($0.10) ($0.05) $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EPS EPS ex-litigation $100.0M $120.0M $140.0M $160.0M $180.0M $200.0M $220.0M 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Domestic Revenues International Revenues
Please refer to the reconciliations of Non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in the appendix and on the Investor Relations section of our website
$88.1M $112.0M $97.8M$99.5M $93.9M $73.6M $64.3M$64.2M
$0.0M $20.0M $40.0M $60.0M $80.0M $100.0M $120.0M 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
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Cash of $64.2M
completion of $40M repurchase authorization in Q1 2016
credit expiring September 2018 remains undrawn
Inventory velocity improving
Focus on key platforms Increased commonality of critical components
Positive operating cash flow
flow generation of $0.1M
linearity
capital velocity
Non-GAAP cash conversion cycle improvement
improves by 10 days
focus on working capital
101 Days 91 Days 113 Days 108 Days 90 Days 104 Days 107 Days 101 Days
0 Days 20 Days 40 Days 60 Days 80 Days 100 Days 120 Days 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3.0 x 3.2 x 3.4 x 3.6 x 3.8 x 4.0 x 4.2 x 4.4 x 4.6 x 4.8 x 5.0 x $37.5M $39.5M $41.5M $43.5M $45.5M $47.5M $49.5M 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Inventory Inventory Turns (annualized) $15.1M
$5.0M$5.1M
$5.3M $0.1M
$0.0M $5.0M $10.0M $15.0M $20.0M 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Please refer to the reconciliations of Non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in the appendix and on the Investor Relations section of our website
Revenues $115-$119M Non-GAAP gross margin 45.5-46.5% Non-GAAP operating expenses – excluding litigation $53.0-$54.0M Non-GAAP operating expenses $48.5-$49.5M* Non-GAAP EPS– excluding litigation ($0.01) – $0.03 Non-GAAP EPS $0.08 – $0.12* Cash flow from operations Negative
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*Includes $4.5M (or $0.09 per share) in expected settlement proceeds for Occam litigation
Please refer to the reconciliations of Non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in the appendix and on the Investor Relations section of our website
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Industry and location no longer the key distinction between customers 22% 66% 12% 2015 Customer Mix
Tier 1 Tier 2/3 International
40% 60% Target Customer Mix
Small-to- medium customer Large customer
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($ in millions, except per share amounts)
2015 Long-Term Target
Revenues
$407.5 $600.0
Non-GAAP gross margin
49.0% >50%
Non-GAAP operating expenses (%)
47.4% 38-42%
Non-GAAP operating margin
1.5% >10%
Non-GAAP EPS
$0.12 >$1.25
Predictable, profitable long-term growth Reaccelerated top-line growth rate Increased leverage from Operating Platform investments Accelerated rate of change across industry Demand drivers remain intact
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PARTNERS PARTNERS SALES SALES ENGINEERING ENGINEERING
LEVERAGE
components
innovation
Open Source value
CUSTOMERS CUSTOMERS
VALUE
Behavior
( features + fixes)
PORTFOLIO EFFECT
through sales
End to End
INTEGRATION
portfolio
versus larger vendors 34
Infrastructure Layer Protocol Framework Layer Protocol and Services Layer User Interface Layer Policy and Management Layer
Hardware Abstraction Layer AXOS Merchant Silicon / New Technology Decoupled hardware and software, loosely coupled components
transformed to fine-grained independent software components abstracted from the physical layer
with internal and external APIs DATA PLANE CONTROL PLANE MANAGEMENT PLANE
D1 D2 D3 D4 C1 C2 C3 C4 B1 B2 B3 B4 A1 A2 A3 A4
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Expanded Revenues
& Markets
& SDN Opportunity
Increased Gross Profit
Gross Margin Expansion
R&D Investment
System
Solutions
Long-Term Operating Profit Growth
G.fast
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“Strategic revenues were up more than 25%, compared to the second quarter of 2015 as our fiber expansion continues to drive favorable returns... as we continue to transition customers from legacy-bases copper services to more strategic-based fiber offerings…Our customers' response to our fiber-based products has been outstanding. As video content consumption evolves and demand for increased bandwidth speeds accelerates, it is important for us to remain connected to our customers and to react accordingly to their changing video and data needs.” August 4, 2016 "FiOS total revenue grew 3.7%. FiOS revenue was strong, even with the work stoppage and a high prior-year comparable pay-per-view fight event. The growth in FiOS is driven by a higher customer base and the demand for higher Internet speeds. Approximately 11% of our FiOS Internet base has opted for speeds of 100 megabits or greater…We believe we have an opportunity to further penetrate the markets we serve.” July 26,
2016
“We are upgrading our broadband network to establish a foundation for sustainable growth. This segment
generates attractive cash flow by serving our largely rural footprint and the network enhancements we are making position us well competitively in our markets. During the quarter, we increased Internet availability across all speed tiers and can now offer premium Internet speeds at 50 meg and higher to approximately 23%
“We also are continuing to invest with a ‘network first’ focus on delivering higher broadband speeds and in the transformation and virtualization of our network infrastructure through the deployment of NFV and SDN
40 Mbps or higher speeds, including 1.2 million GPON-enabled addressable units. We expect to reach 11 million 40 Mbps or higher, including 2 million GPON-enabled addressable households and businesses by year- end 2017.” August 3, 2016 37
Source: Company reports
Latest Quarter Wireline revenues +1% y/y Fioptics revenues +34% y/y Latest Quarter Wireline revenues -2% y/y Fios revenues +8% y/y
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$2,478 $2,562 $2,602 $2,678 $2,689 $2,770 $2,761 $2,776 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 FiOS Rev ($M) 30.0% 32.0% 34.0% 36.0% 38.0% 40.0% 42.0% 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 FiOS Internet Penetration FiOS Video Penetration 100 200 300 400 5,900 5,950 6,000 6,050 6,100 6,150 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Broadband Subscribers ('000s) - LHS Prism Subscribers ('000s) - RHS $712 $727 $738 $758 $763 $773 $774 $800 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Consumer Strategic Rev ($M) $37 $40 $42 $45 $49 $55 $58 $62 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Fioptics Rev ($M) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Fioptics availability
“Broadband access has become a necessity in our everyday lives. In the past few years, broadband has brought sweeping changes in the ways Americans communicate, gather information, conduct commerce, and entertain themselves.”
STATEMENT OF FCC CHAIRMAN TOM WHEELER
“Broadband is not just a technology, it’s a platform for opportunity.”
STATEMENT OF COMMISSIONER JESSICA ROSENWORCEL
Source: 2015 BROADBAND PROGRESS REPORT AND NOTICE OF INQUIRY ON IMMEDIATE ACTION TO ACCELERATE DEPLOYMENT, FCC, January 9 2015
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Source: Telecom & Networking Equipment, The FTTP Renaissance, Implications for Vendors – Jefferies Group LLC May 6, 2015 40
14 31 43 65 76 100 122 131 132 134 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016
*Additional customer deployments from Calix customers have been secured but not yet announced. Totals: 134 gigabit deployments (as of July 11, 2016) States: 43 Outside U.S.: 2 Canadian provinces and 4 other countries Calix Gigabit Deployments 41
42 Source: NTCA 2015 Broadband/Internet Availability Survey Report, June 2016 Survey responses 131 (22% of NTCA membership)
41% 45% 55% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 2013 2014 2015
Percent of providers covering 50% of customer with FTTH
61% 67% 78% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 2013 2014 2015
Percent building FTTH to >50% of customers 3-years out
CAPEX $25K CAPEX $8K OPEX $1K OPEX $32K
Central Office Generic
Home
20 Mbps
MDU
1:32 split
BPON ONTs
+ 1 GPON system + 32 GPON ONTs + 2 CO techs (day) + 32 techs in field (simultaneously)
GPON ONTs
GPON OLTs BPON OLTs
Total cash spend = $66K -- or $2,063 per home
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CAPEX $4K OPEX $120
Home MDU
1:32 split BPON OLTs GPON OLTs BPON OLTs + 1 GPON line card + 1 GPON OIM
+ 1 CO tech (2 hrs) + 0 techs in field (no truck roll) 80 Mbps to 1Gbps
GPON ONTs
Auto- detect
PO ONTs
Central Office
GPON OLTs
Total cash spend = $4.12K -- or $128 per home
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* Based on litigation expense reimbursement with estimated timing of settlement accrual in Q3 2016
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016E* Occam Litigation Expense ($M)
($1.7M) ($0.1M) ($0.6M) ($0.8M) ($3.4M) ($2.8M) $4.5M
Per share impact
($0.03) ($0.00) ($0.01) ($0.02) ($0.07) ($0.06) $0.09
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($ in millions, except per share amounts) (Unaudited) Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 GAAP Revenues $105,768 $111,633 $91,.038 $99,129 $112,297 $104,999 $98,375 $107,425 GAAP Cost of revenue $60,689 $60,192 $48,548 $50,840 $59,184 $58,462 $52,893 $57,419 Stock-Based Compensation (206) (206) (175) (211) (163) (160) (127) (183) Amortization of Intangibles (2,089) (2,088) (2,088) (2,088) (2,088) (2,089) (1,663) (814) Acquisition-Related Costs Non-GAAP Cost of revenue $58,394 $57,898 $46,285 $48,541 $56,933 $56,213 $51,103 $56,422 GAAP Gross Profit $45,080 $51,441 $42,490 $48,289 $53,113 $46,537 $45,482 $50,006 GAAP Gross Margin 42.6% 46.1% 46.7% 48.7% 47.3% 44.3% 46.2% 46.5% Stock-Based Compensation 206 206 175 211 163 160 127 183 Amortization of Intangibles 2,089 2,088 2,088 2,088 2,088 2,089 1,663 814 Acquisition-Related Costs Non-GAAP Gross Profit $47,375 $53,735 $44,753 $50,588 $55,364 $48,786 $47,272 $51,003 Non-GAAP Gross Margin 44.8% 48.1% 49.2% 51.0% 49.3% 46.5% 48.1% 47.5%
Q3 2014 – Q2 2016 Cost of Revenue and Gross Profit
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($ in millions, except per share amounts) Unaudited Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 GAAP Operating Expenses $48,824 $54,294 $54,377 $54,054 $52,236 $56,272 $56,220 $55,887 Stock-Based Compensation (3,607) (3,692) (3,487) (4,130) (2,427) (3,052) (2,594) (2,785) Amortization of Intangibles (2,552) (2,552) (2,552) (2,552) (2,552) (2,552) (1,701) Acquisition-Related Costs (978) (190) (52) (106) (24) (275) (76) Non-GAAP Operating Expenses $42,665 $47,072 $48,148 $47,320 $47,151 $50,644 $51,650 $53,026 GAAP Net Income/(Loss) ($3,848) ($2,988) ($11,930) ($5,779) $922 ($9,546) ($10,729) ($5,826) Stock-Based Compensation 3,831 3,898 3,662 4,341 2,590 3,212 2,721 2,968 Amortization of Intangibles 4,641 4,640 4,640 4,640 4,640 4,641 3,364 814 Acquisition-Related Costs 978 190 52 106 24 275 76 Non-GAAP Net Income/(Loss) $4,624 $6,528 ($3,438) $3,254 $8,258 ($1,669) ($4,369) ($1,968) Basic Shares 51,048 51,300 51,732 51,950 51, 756 50,578 48,591 48,371 Diluted Shares 51,552 52,047 51,732 52,455 52,016 50,578 48,591 48,371 GAAP Income/(Loss) per share ($0.08) ($0.06) ($0.23) ($0.11) $0.02 ($0.19) ($0.22) ($0.12) Stock-Based Compensation 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 Amortization of Intangibles 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.02 Acquisition-Related Costs 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 Non-GAAP Income/(Loss) per share $0.09 $0.13 ($0.07) $0.06 $0.16 ($0.03) ($0.09) ($0.04)
Q3 2014 – Q2 2016 Operating Expense and Net Income/(Loss)
Additional information available at http://investor-relations.calix.com/
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