Atmosphere Modelling Group Atmosphere Modelling Group (with a - - PDF document
Atmosphere Modelling Group Atmosphere Modelling Group (with a strong focus on new particle formation) (with a strong focus on new particle formation) University of Helsinki University of Helsinki Department of Physics Department of Physics
MALTE S OS A S CADIS seconds days months years cm meters kilometers ECHAM5- HAM UHMA PENCIL- COUD
MALTE S OS A S CADIS seconds days months years cm meters kilometers ECHAM5- HAM UHMA
Luxi Zhou Ditte M ogensen Risto M akkonen Henri Vuollekoski Rosa Gierens J
K.V. Gopalkrishnan Sampo Smolander Anton Rusanen Sanna-Liisa Sihto He Qingyang Chatriya Watcharapaskorn
PENCIL CLOUD
Natalia Babkovskaia M ichael Boy (group leader)
coagulation cloud droplet activation nucleation condensation
Figure: Miikka Dal Maso
Vuollekoski, H., et al. Journal of Aerosol Science,41, 1080-1089, 2010.
UHMA
UHMA
0 m 15 m 3000 m METEOROLOGY EMISSIONS CHEMISTRY KPP MCM MEGAN SCADIS Aerosol UHMA
Lauros et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. 10, 20005-20033, 2010
Measurements: DMPS J = K * [H2S O4]2 (K = 5* 10-13 cm3 s-1) J = Korg1 * * [H2S O4] * {[Mont.][O3]} J = Korg2 * * [H2S O4] * {[Mont.] [OH]}
p > 10 nm
Observation Organic induced nucleation Kinetic nucleation (H2S O4)
Long term statistical comparison of different compounds
dark green: days > 75 % of the yearly mean value between 9 am and 3 pm green: days > 60 & < 75 % of the yearly mean value between 9 am and 3 pm light green: days > 50 & < 60 % of the yearly mean value between 9 am and 3 pm
Long-term data analyses: 2003-2008
4 2
OH-reactivity = loss rate of OH ROH = kOH+X [X] Unit of OH-reactivity, ROH is [s-1] kOH+X is the rate coefficient [cm3mol-1s-1] [X] is the concentration of chemical compound X
Modeled (blue) and 30 minute resolution, measured OH-reactivity (black) from the 13th to the 27th of August, 2008 at 14 meters.
We seem to be able to predict 30-50% of the OH-reactivity! 13-27Aug 13-18Aug 19-27Aug Modeled 2.5 s-1 2.3 s-1 2.6 s-1 Measured 6.5 s-1 8.6 s-1 5.1 s-1 Missing 4s-1 / 61% 6.2 s-1 / 73% 2.5 s-1 / 49%
peak near ground during night night deposition and suppression of boundary layer
Vertical profile of OH-reactivity [s-1]
Contributions from inorganic compounds, isoprene, methane, monoterpenes, and other VOCs.
Clathrate destablize Methane release Temperature rise [Kennet et al. 2000]
Methane clathrate is crystalline
solid which looks like ice, and in which a large amount of methane is trapped within a crystal structure of water Clathrates naturally occur in permafrost and seabed. Total reservoirs on earth ranges from 103 to 104 GtC.
(ESAS) bottom waters and greater than 50% of surface waters are supersaturated with methane regarding to the atmosphere.
ESAS is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world's oceans.
7.12.2010 29 Osasto / Henkilön nimi / Esityksen nimi
RCP database: By 2100, total methane emission may increase 300%.
15.09.2010 30
CH4 CH3O2 OH O2 CH3OOH HO2 HCHO NO CH3O CO CO2 hv Deposition O2 OH OH OH OH hv
CH4 + OH + O2 CH3O2 + H2O CH3 O2 + NO NO2 + CH3O CH3O + O2 HCHO + HO2 HO2 + NO NO2 + OH CH4+2O2+2NO HCHO+H2O+2NO2 2(NO2 + hv NO + O) 2(O + O2 +M O3 +M) Net: CH4+4O2+2hv HCHO+2O3+H2O
Oxford University Press, New York, 2000
RF in CH4
A set of models were used to assess the effects of adding NOx
Radiative forcing (RF) is the change in net irradiance at the tropopause/top of atmosphere.
Baseline scenario:
10M/100M, 1N scenario:
10M, 2N scenario:
Increase the methane by 10 in the atmosphere would result in a radiative forcing change of 2.514 W/m2. Scen Scenario ario O3 radiat radiative ive forcin forcing (W/ g (W/m2) CD CDNC-alb NC-albedo relat edo related ed rad radiat iative f ive forc
ing (W/m2) CH CH4 li lifetime (ye fetime (years) ars) 1M,1N 0.0 0.0 12 10M, 1N 0.76 2.06 22.2 10M, 2N 1.10 1.70 19.8
+0.34
methane life time change is small RF change due to ozone and aerosol indirect effect are comparable
EFFECT Magnitude (J/m2)
CH4 removal
O3 increase + 10.72×106 CDNC increase
Net
Scenario with CH4 concentration increased 10-fold Doubling of the NOX concentration for a year
We do get a net cooling effect!!! But....
Net cooling effect: -6.58 J/ m2 -0.21 W/ m2* year It is too small compared to the initial warming due to methane increase ( 2.51 W/m2) as well as associated ozone warming (0.76 W/m2) and aerosol indirect effects (2.06W/m2). 0.21 W/m2 << (2.51 + 0.76 + 2.06) W/m2
Not an effctive way to save us! Elevated methane level leads to strong CDNC reduction
CDNC reduction leads to positive aerosol indirect effects CDNC reduction leads to positive aerosol indirect effects
aerosol dynamics and vice versa inside a cloud
the cloud boundary
at the outflow of a cloud
SCADISis a high-resolution 3D model capable of computing the physical processes with both plant canopy and atmospheric boundary layer simultaneously Horizontal and Vertical Resolution – As per specific requirement
Past Present Future
(diameter > 3 nm) Cloud condensation nuclei (diameter > 70 nm)
#/cm3
Aerosol indirect effect (W/m2 (anthropogenic effect: present-day/future compared to pre-industrial)
Aerosol indirect effect (W/m2) (anthropogenic effect: present-day/future compared to pre-industrial)