associated risk for growth and survival in arboreta along Atlantic - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Assessing Forest Species tolerance and associated risk for growth and survival in arboreta along Atlantic climate gradient António H. Correira 1* ; Christophe Orazio 2 ; M. Helena Almeida 1 ; et al. 1.Centro de Estudos Florestais, ISA, Universidade de Lisboa 2.EFI Planted Forests Facility / IEFC * ahcorreia@isa.ulisboa.pt

REINFFORCE main aim Build a research tool to meet the climate change challenges. ❖ Better knowledge of tree species performance response to future climate scenarios, improving uncertainty; ❖ Test effectiveness of adaptive forest management; ❖ Accompanying Scientific cooperation on climate change adaptation

REINFFORCE infrastructure Take advantage of the Atlantic network of IEFC and EFIATLANTIC partners ->compare sites from longitudes 37 to 57º, under a strongly oceanic influenced climate ❖ 12 partner Institutions ❖ Arboreta network (38 sites), ❖ Demonstration site network (41sites), ❖ Common protocols (growth measurements, phenology, health, etc.).

The arboreta network Aim: expose the same genetic material produced in the same conditions to various climate/soil contexts. ❖ Each of the 38 arboretum is about 2 hectares with 2000 trees; ❖ 35 species ; 3 provenances/species; 12 trees/ provenance. ❖ Arboreta sites represent typical site conditions for managed forests in each region, with Weather monitoring ❖ Sites will be monitored for at least 15 years with standardized methods.

First results - Survival • Broadleaf Survival responds to Precipitation Transfer Distance ; Conifer Survival responds to Growing Season Degree Days >5 ° C (Correia et al , 2018) Estimated Survival Conifer Broadleaf

First results - Growth • Overall growth responds to Annual Dryness Index (Correia et al, 2018) Estimated Survival

Within-Species variation BLUP for provenance variation from mean estimated Conifer species Survival probability Thuja plicata Pinus pinea Pinus elliotti Calocedrus decurrens

Risk assessment for Survival (Broadleaf species) -Under Publication process-

Key messages ❖ A strategical tool for forest adaptation to climate change; ❖ key parameters for growth and survival: Transfer Distance for Precipitation, Annual Dryness Index, Growing Season Degree Days >5⁰C ❖ Broadleaf survival at installation (first years) will not present significant loss under moderate RCP scenario; ❖ Conifer survival will vary accordingly to each Species, yet there is associated risk even for moderate RCP scenario for mid term projection; ❖ Global risk for growth loss , except for Eucalyptus globulus and gundal .

Building an Interface for knowledge application In order to facilitate the dissemination of the fitted models and predictions, a mobile app is being built, focusing on: ❖ risk calculation per species ❖ Growth and survival estimation under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2080 ❖ Suggestion of the species presenting best results ❖ Species characterisation and silviculture information

Bibliography ❖ Correia, A.H. et al (2018) Early survival and growth plasticity of 33 species planted in 38 arboreta across Europe Atlantic Area. Forests, 2018, 9(10), 630; https://doi.org/10.3390/f9100630 ❖ Orazio, C. et al (2013) Arboretum & Demonstration Site Catalogue – Resource INFrastructure for monitoring, adapting and protecting European FORests under Changing climatE. IEFC/EFI-ATLANTIQUE. Bordeaux.

Thank you! António Henrique Correia - ahcorreia@isa.ulisboa.pt (REsource INFrastructure for monitoring and adapting european Atlantic FORest under Changing climatE) http://reinfforce.iefc.net