Assessment Final Presentation Andrew Knudtsen, Managing Principal - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Lake County Housing Needs Assessment Final Presentation Andrew Knudtsen, Managing Principal Rachel Shindman, Associate Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. July 2018 Denver Los Angeles Oakland
Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
July 2018
Denver Los Angeles Oakland Sacramento
Andrew Knudtsen, Managing Principal Rachel Shindman, Associate
Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento
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Firm Description
Angeles
analysis
▪ National practice ▪ Colorado mountain community focus since 1990 Regional and Relevant Experience Clients
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Study Overview Data Summary Issues, Goals, and Action Plan Questions
Photo: coloradoguy.com
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Photo: coloradoguy.com
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Community-wide understanding of the need Multi-faceted approach to the problem and solution Action plan that enables the community to align resources and direct them into achievable solutions
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What are the housing needs facing Leadville and Lake County? Who is affected? What resources are available to address housing issues, and how do they match identified needs? What goals are realistic and attainable, and how can they be achieved?
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Data Analysis First Community Meeting Targeted Follow Up Research Second Community Meeting Resource and Strategy Evaluation Goals and Actions
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Population (Lake County, 2017) | 7,900 Households (Lake County, 2017) | 3,200
The region’s population decreased from 2000 to 2010 Mostly due to people moving out Since 2010, trends shifted and the area has recently recovered to 2000 population levels From 2010 to 2017 Lake County grew by an average of 80 new residents per year
0.6% 1.1% Leadville Lake County
Annual Population Growth | 2010-2017
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The most growth since 2000 has been in residents aged 60 to 74 Over this time, there has also been a decline in residents aged 34 and younger
16% 15% 27% 32% 8% 2% 13% 14% 21% 34% 14% 4% 0 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 59 60 to 74 75 and Over
2000 2016
An Aging Population| 2000-2016
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$
Household Income
Median household income in Lake County is approximately $47,000
28% lower than Colorado statewide
Almost 30% of households in Lake County earn less than $25,000 per year
12% 15% 9% 19% 20% 11% 11% 2% 1%
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$
Income by Source
63% of income comes from employment – down from 72% in 2001 18% of income now comes from Transfer Receipts – up from 11% in 2001
63% 19% 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Employment Income Dividends, Interest, and Rent Transfer Receipts
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Economic & Planning Systems
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Total Employment (Lake County) | 3,500 Total Employed Residents (Lake County) | 4,000 Largest Employment Sectors
Education and Health Services, Leisure and Hospitality, Natural Resources and Mining, and Government
$
Wages The average wage in Lake County is $35,000 Proprietors
30% of employment in
Lake County is Proprietors (business owners)
22% 18% 17% 14%
Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Natural Resources and Mining Government
Source: Colorado Department of Labor; Economic & Planning Systems
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Employed in Lake County, Live Outside Employed and Live in Lake County Live in Lake County, Employed Outside
Commuting Patterns
75% of residents commute out of the County for work
Most employees commuting in to Lake County come from Chaffee County Most Lake County residents commuting
Eagle County
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Compared to neighboring counties, Lake County experienced a slower and less drastic, but more prolonged decrease in employment Lake County saw economic recovery beginning in 2014
Total Employment| Indexed to 2006
90 100 110 120 130 140 150 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Employment Index
Lake County Summit County Eagle County Colorado
Source: BLS; Economic & Planning Systems
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Employers have indicated that housing challenges affect recruitment Newly hired employees have turned down jobs because of challenges finding local housing
Employment Vacancies| February – June 2018
Interviews with large and small employers indicate over 100 vacant positions in Lake County This represents 3% vacancy in local employment – a significant piece of the local economy
When appropriate and affordable housing is not available, local economic growth is “capped” based on the housing inventory
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Total Housing Units (2017) | 4,470 Vacancy Rate (2017) | 29%
72% of housing in the County is Single Family Detached homes A large percentage is also mobile homes
72% 5% 8% 16% 1 Unit (Detached) 1 Unit (Attached) to 4 Units 5 Units or More Mobile Home
Units in Structure
Photo: coloradoguy.com
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38 588 252 341 373 399 333 192 271 80 54 92 138 83 211 16 1,062 2010-2013 2000-2009 1990-1999 1980-1989 1970-1979 1960-1969 1950-1959 1940-1949 1939 or Earlier
Leadville Lake County
Leadville has a much older housing stock than the County overall, with 61% of units built before 1940, and only 13% built since 1980
Housing by Year Built
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Leadville has a higher proportion of renters than Lake County, with 44% of housing units in the City being rented
Lake County Leadville
Of the 3,200 occupied housing units in the County:
63% are owner-occupied 37% are rented
Of the 1,300 occupied housing units in the City:
56% are owner-occupied 44% are rented
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Building Permits Planned Development
Since 2011, there have been 140 building permits for single family homes and 17 permits for mobile homes An average of 22 new units/year There are several developments in or planned for the approval process, which could add up to
650 new units.
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Many homes in Lake County are “second homes” – homes
County and not occupied year-round
Vacancy Owner Location
Overall housing vacancy in Lake County is 29% - an increase from 24% in 2000 Most of these are likely second
homes 28% of properties in Lake
County are registered to addresses with a different city from the home location
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On average, 48% of home sales are to non-local buyers
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Local Buyer Out of Town Buyer
Source: Lake County Assessor; Economic & Planning Systems
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There has been a dramatic shift in the housing market since 2014-2015
56 34 45 41 59 59 74 90 133 148
$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Number of Sales Average Sales Price
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The average sales price in the first 2 months of 2018 was $311,271 There were only 15 active listings in the County at the time of analysis
2008 – 2014 2015 – Feb. 2018 Total Sales 368 378 Average Sales Price $173,700 $238,500 Annual Average Sales Price Increase Dollars
$30,370 Percent
12.2%
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Data on rentals needs to be gathered from a variety of sources
Total Units Vacant Vacancy Percent Eagles Nest 162 1 0.6% Tabor Grand 37 1 2.7% Dispersed Rentals 66 1 1.5% Total 265 3 1.1%
Based on interviews with property managers in June and July 2018
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Data on rentals comes from a variety of sources
# of Units Average Rent Studio 6 $672 1 Bedroom 40 $881 2 Bedroom 154 $1,043 3 Bedroom 63 $1,249
Based on interviews with property managers in June and July 2018 and listings from Craigslist and the Leadville Herald over 3 months in 2017-18
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$
Household income reflects all earnings for all members of the household
Income
Housing is “affordable” when a household spends no more than 30% of income on housing costs
Total Household Income
Earner HH
Earner HH Annual Hourly Annual Hourly 30% AMI $14,100 $9,400 $4.52 $7,050 $3.39 60% AMI $28,200 $18,800 $9.04 $14,100 $6.78 80% AMI $37,600 $25,067 $12.05 $18,800 $9.04 100% AMI $47,000 $31,333 $15.06 $23,500 $11.30 120% AMI $56,400 $37,600 $18.08 $28,200 $13.56
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$
A household earning the median income of $47,000 can afford a $194,000 home
Home Ownership
Housing is “affordable” when a household spends no more than 30% of income on housing costs
Household Income
Purchase Price % Affordable 2017 Sales 30% AMI $14,100 $32,500 0% 60% AMI $28,200 $103,600 4% 80% AMI $37,600 $148,800 5% 100% AMI $47,000 $194,000 19% 120% AMI $56,400 $241,500 19%
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$
A household earning the median income
Home Ownership
Housing is “affordable” when a household spends no more than 30% of income on housing costs
36 18 32 33 38 44 50 47 65 42 20 16 13 8 21 15 24 43 68 105 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Affordable up to 100% AMI Affordable to over 100% AMI
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Housing is “affordable” when a household spends no more than 30% of income on housing costs
38% sales in 2017 were affordable to households earning 80 – 120% AMI
14 9 20 24 27 34 32 28 32 14 22 9 12 9 11 10 18 19 33 28 7 7 8 2 12 8 6 13 17 28 13 9 5 6 9 7 18 30 51 77
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Less than 80% AMI 80 - 100% AMI 100 - 120% AMI Over 120% AMI
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Housing is “affordable” when a household spends no more than 30% of income on housing costs $
A household earning the median income of $47,000 can afford $1,175 in monthly rent
Rental Housing
Household Income
Rent % Inventoried Units 30% AMI $14,100 $353 0% 60% AMI $28,200 $705 8% 80% AMI $37,600 $940 18% 100% AMI $47,000 $1,175 52% 120% AMI $56,400 $1,410 19%
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$
A household earning the median income of $47,000 can afford $1,175 in monthly rent
Rental Housing
Housing is “affordable” when a household spends no more than 30% of income on housing costs
Average Rent Required Income AMI Affordability Studio $672 $26,880 57% 1 Bedroom $881 $35,240 75% 2 Bedroom $1,043 $41,720 89% 3 Bedroom $1,249 $49,960 106%
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#1: Inadequate Housing Supply #2: Challenges Facing New Housing Development #3: Location and Regional Context of Lake County #4: Continuing Pressure on Pricing #5: Links to Employment and Economic Development
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#1: Define affordability and the mechanisms for policies and programs #2: Commit sites and establish process to build new affordable inventory #3: Identify options for funding resources and establish process to adopt them #4: Adopt new policies and regulations that address long term needs #5: Find effective partners and establish logistical framework for action #6: Identify local needs and continue to press for regional solutions
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#4 Policy Initiatives #5 Organization and Management #3 Funding Sources #6 Regional Partnerships #2 Land Strategy #1 Affordability Definitions and Framework
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Next Steps
attributes of an affordable housing program, developed as part of this process
for future policies, regulation, and
development Adopt standards for affordability and establish terminology for all future projects, programs, and policies. What it can achieve:
Clarity for all parties – including
governing entities, developers, future residents.
Consistency, which will lead to credibility.
Why it works for Lake County: The City and County are poised for action, both for development and policy adoption.
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Next Steps
prioritization of available public land for housing development
actions, such as the issuance of an RFP , for the identified site(s) Define a strategy to utilize publicly held land for rental and ownership affordable housing developments What it can achieve: Remove land from development costs, reduce overall cost of housing, and
bring new affordable units to
the community Why it works for Lake County: The City and County have available surplus land that is suitable for housing development
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Next Steps
the policy options identified
Short Term Rental Policy, Inclusionary Zoning, or Impact Fees Pass targeted policy initiatives to address key housing issues What it can achieve:
Increased inventory of
affordable housing and/or greater
financial resources to develop
County and City sponsored projects. Why it works for Lake County: Development pressure will only increase
community to keep pace with the anticipated growth.
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Next Steps
with the Chaffee Housing Trust to include Lake County
staffing based in Leadville
related to projects, policies, and agency
Partner with the Chaffee Housing Trust to govern and manage housing activities What it can achieve:
Dedicated organization can
lead the housing initiatives; land trust model can own land, manage development, qualify owners/renters, and manage affordability covenants Why it works for Lake County: Availability and willingness of the Chaffee Housing Trust to be a partner is a significant opportunity.
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Next Steps
group to review potential programs, targeting use tax and impact fees
targets for each, with corresponding time lines for adoption (for fees) and election (for use tax) Dedicate a local funding source for housing activities What it can achieve:
Consistent and sufficient funding is necessary to support
housing initiatives Why it works for Lake County: Revenue is needed to close gaps on future projects as well as manage the program.
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Next Steps
the needs of Lake County in the region
County serves the multi-county region and needs related to commuting employees - such as health care, day care, and social services Identify regional partnerships to address issues related to housing, including transportation and child care What it can achieve: Regional partnerships can focus on
community services, including
transportation, recreation, and child care Why it works for Lake County: Lake County is deeply integrated with its surrounding communities and their economies, and there is an opportunity for those communities to contribute to the needs created in Lake County from that integration
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Issues are pressing, but resources are available to begin addressing them Cooperation and coordination will be key to success Local energy and motivation to take action is a key asset
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