Assessing the Effect of Hurricane Sandy Projects on Resilience in the Delaware River Watershed -- (a status update) 2015 DELAWARE ESTUARY SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENT SUMMIT, JANUARY 26 TH , 2015 PETER MURDOCH, SCIENCE ADVISOR, RACHEL MUIR, SCIENCE ADVISOR, U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
“Resilience” – What does it mean? “Resistance” – not the same! 2
Resilience -- Ecological and Social Meaning & Context Ecological -- measure of the persistence of systems and of their ability to absorb change and disturbance and still maintain the same relationships between populations or state variables (Hollings,1973) Social --The ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political, and environmental change (Alger, 2000). Policy-directed -- “… the ability to anticipate, prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and withstand, respond to and recover rapidly from disruptions.” (Executive Order 13653, November 1, 2012) 3
Resilience Defined -- II Ecosystem response to perturbation: y axis = resilience, x axis = perturbation: 4
Hurricane Sandy DOI Response – A Calendar • October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy makes landfall, Atlantic City, NJ -- Nearly 70 national parks and dozens of wildlife refuges damaged:; • March 19, 2013 The Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013, appropriated $786.7 million for DOI to rebuild and repair its assets and make strategic investments in future coastal resilience; • May 7, 2013, DOI released $475.25 million for 234 projects; • August 12, 2013 , DOI selected the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF) to administer the $100 million for the Hurricane Sandy Coastal Resiliency Competitive Grant Program, funding 53 projects; • June 16, 2014 , DOI announces projects selected for the Coastal Resiliency Competitive Grant Program • 2015 – Decisions on use of remaining funds (monitoring, metrics development, resilience assessment) • 2016 – Majority of Projects due for completion. 5
DOI Metrics Expert Group Federal-Wide Goal: “Quantifying benefits of resilience projects and calculating resilience project return on investment in order to better inform future public spending” Federal Disaster Recovery Coordination Workplan, 2013
Challenges in Measuring Resilience • Projects already started • Need metrics to detect short-term change in resilience (for key coastal features, subregions, air/water/land processes?) • Need a baseline of data for detecting change– also fiscally impossible unless leverage capabilities of multiple partners; • Need better-developed socio-economic metrics of coastal resilience; • Need a common, collaborative data-management and sharing strategy (shared protocols); • Detection of changes in resilience take time – need strategies for early detection and long-term monitoring. 7
The DOI Metrics Expert Group (A team of scientists and socio-economists charged by DOI to scope an assessment of changes in coastal resilience resulting from DOI-sponsored projects) Currently in review: Recommendations for assessing improvements in coastal resilience from projects within the DOI Hurricane Sandy Mitigation and Resiliency Program
Assessing Resilience– the DOI Metrics Strategy DOI Metrics Expert Group Task 1: Select core metrics for the restoration and research projects (for 140 restoration and science projects ); Task 2: Determine data and information gaps: Task 3: Establish baseline conditions for individual projects (rapid data collection as needed) Task 4: Design and complete the regional assessment Task 5: Design data management strategy and long- term monitoring for status and trends
Geographic Example: Resilience of Jamaica Bay - Determine: • Key coastal features, socio- economic factors & stressors; • Core metrics for wetlands, communities, beach/dune, etc); • Gaps in must be filled to assess changes in resilience; - Analyze: • Nest project measurements in regional models; • Use pre-post measurements & model applications to define & detect change in resilience. • Track future changes 10
DE Bayshore Coastal Resiliency: Mispillion to Milford Neck (43281) Restoration plan within Milford Neck Conservation area: modeled under current conditions and with potential restoration alternatives Restoring the beach and dune system that protects Mispillion Harbor One of 7 NFWF projects in Delaware Bay Sub-region, and many regional projects that include the Delaware sub-region
Topical Example: Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) Network Entire proposed network will consist of approximately 1,050 sites: − 76 non-USGS stations − 530 temporary storm-tide sensors − 117 coastal stations/tidal streams − 85 rapid-deployment gages − 32 tide crest stage gages − 45 tide gages − 112 surveyed reference points − 63 temporary barometric-pressure sensors Pre-emptive network- brackets pre-installed Northeast Coast from North Carolina to Maine Nor’easters and tropical storms of varying magnitude Data distributed through an online mapper”
Our Short-term Ambitions… • Fill baseline data and study gaps for immediate action on projects underway; • Seamless measurements and data management with other resilience assessment efforts; • Link current or historical data where possible for early trends detection; • Comparison data among projects with similar goals; • Conduct an integrated, resilience assessment . 13
Our Wish List • Secure additional funds for multi-scale, interdisciplinary pre- and post-project monitoring; • Begin to apply efficient monitoring strategies, using alternative accelerated-assessment methods . • Track/anticipate resilience change across the region 14
How do we build a Multi-scale Data Framework? Science within an Multiple issues organizational framework through common measurements Based on CENR Framework for Environmental Monitoring and Research, 1997
Fine Scale Data which can help – Urban Waters Federal Partnership Baltimore Partnership: http://water.bniajfi.org/map/
Honestly … This won’t be easy 17
For More Infromation Contact: Peter Murdoch, pmurdoch@usgs.gov Rachel Muir rmuir@usgs.gov 18
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Global Hierarchical Observing Strategy (GHOST) World Meteorological Organization , 1997(GCOS, GTOS, IOOS) Integration across programs, disciplines, space, and time
SWaTH Network Design and Development Proposed network consists of about 1,000 sites: 62 Non-USGS Stations 103 USGS Long-Term Coastal/Tidal Stream Stations 60 Temporary Rapid-Deployment Gage Locations 566 Temporary Storm-Tide Sensor Locations 193 Temporary Wave-Height Sensor Locations 104 Temporary Barometric-Pressure Sensor Locations Not all stations will be fitted with sensors for any one storm. 21
Science Project Case Study: Surge, Wave, and Tide DOI Metrics Expert Group Hydrodynamics Network (SWaTH) • Compile surge metrics for surge/wave baseline data; • Document weaknesses of existing models for varied coastal features; • Nest an enhanced network of sensors in existing tide and surge network from Maine to Virginia.
DOI Metrics Expert Group Science Project Case Study – (continued) • Apply new data to improve wave and surge models, and real- time data to improve early warning systems; • Quantify reduction in model uncertainty, early warning enhancements as proof of improved resilience.
DOI Metrics Expert Group DMEG First Products First products completed (past 2 months): • First-cut recommended metrics for measuring resilience in specific coastal features, • Grouped DOI projects into common categories (geographic and topical) for assigning metrics and comparing results; • Recommended an assessment strategy (in review); • Recommended a strategy for filling gaps in baseline data and research required for the assessment; • Recommended a strategy for earliest detection of resilience improvement from project activity, at multiple scales over time.
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