Applying System Dynamics to Childrens Social Care in England UK - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Applying System Dynamics to Childrens Social Care in England UK - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Applying System Dynamics to Childrens Social Care in England UK Chapter er System Dynamics cs Societ ety An Annual Confer ference nce 2018 Systems / Science Complexity Evidence THE LAB Services / User-Centred Interventions Design

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Applying System Dynamics to Children’s Social Care in England

UK Chapter er System Dynamics cs Societ ety An Annual Confer ference nce 2018

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Science Evidence Services / Interventions User-Centred Design Systems / Complexity THE LAB

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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BA BACK CKGRO ROUND UND

Funding for children’s services in England has been and continues to be drastically cut. Most local authorities will have experienced a 40% cut between 2010 and 2020. Early intervention and prevention has been integrated into children services, but at times of deep budget cuts they are the natural place to start making savings. Many local authorities believe that the number of children in care is a function of need in the community, and that they have little control over numbers.

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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HYPOTHESIS OTHESIS 1

R² = 0.34778 50 100 150 200 20 40 60 80 LAC rate (per 10,000) Child Material Deprivation (%)

City of London CMD = 2% LAC rate = 103 Stockon-on-Tees CMD = 47% LAC rate = 101 Waltham Forest CMD = 48% LAC rate = 42

  • St. Helens

CMD = 47% LAC rate = 117 Blackpool CMD = 63% LAC rate = 184 Bradford CMD = 65% LAC rate = 66 Lancashire CMD = 48% LAC rate = 75 Darlington CMD = 51% LAC rate = 96

The numbers of children in care are not explained solely by need; other factors that are within the control of the local authority explain much of the variation. System behaviours contribute to the number of children in care.

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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HYPOTHESIS OTHESIS 2

Reducing the number of children in care is within the control of the Local Authority.

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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HYPOTHESIS OTHESIS 3

Reducing the number of children in care will not cause harm. There is no conclusive evidence to show that care improves outcomes for children.

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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HYPOTHESIS OTHESIS 4

  • 1. Need greatly exceeds the

services available

  • 2. Not all children with high need

are accessing services

  • 3. There are children receiving

services that aren’t high need 23% 12%

All children (9-16) Children with high levels of need Children receiving high end services

There is always more need than service.

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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PROPO POSITI SITION ON

In order to meet savings targets, local authorities could make cuts to the deep end rather than early intervention. This can be done by safely reducing the number of children in care. Due to the complex nature of the social care system, we are using System Dynamics to understand how this can be done best.

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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Stockton-on-Tees Council

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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THE ROLE E OF SY SYSTE STEM M DYNAMICS AMICS

Mapping the system Understanding behaviours Identifying intervention points WORKS KSHO HOPS PS & FOCUS S GROUP UPS SIMUL ULATIO TION N MODELLING LLING Focus staff around a problem Simulating potential interventions

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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THE ROLE E OF SY SYSTE STEM M DYNAMICS AMICS

Understanding behaviours Identifying intervention points SIMUL ULATIO TION N MODELLING LLING Mapping the system Focus staff around a problem Simulating potential interventions WORKS KSHO HOPS PS & FOCUS S GROUP UPS

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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FOCU CUS S ST STAF AFF F AR AROUND ND A SP A SPECIFIC CIFIC PROBL BLEM

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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THE ROLE E OF SY SYSTE STEM M DYNAMICS AMICS

Understanding behaviours Identifying intervention points SIMUL ULATIO TION N MODELLING LLING Mapping the system Focus staff around a problem Simulating potential interventions WORKS KSHO HOPS PS & FOCUS S GROUP UPS

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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  • +
  • +

+ +

  • +
  • +
  • +
  • +
  • +

+ + +

  • +

+

  • Numberofchildren

returninghome Continuity

  • f

social worker Experiencelevel

  • fsocialworks

Workload Stress Intervention quality Interventionquality Availablecapacity Culturetotake childrenintocare Toleranceforrisk Leadership Numberofchildren becomingLAC Supervision Workforce development Tolerance for risk Continuityofsocialworker Agencyworkers Illnessandburnout Numberofsocialworkers Numberofchildrenincare

R4 B1 R3b R2b R1a

R1b

R3a R2a

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

UNDER ERSTA STANDING NDING THE LOCAL AL DYNAMICS AMICS

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UNDER ERSTA STANDING NDING THE LOCAL AL DYNAMICS AMICS

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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THE ROLE E OF SY SYSTE STEM M DYNAMICS AMICS

Mapping the system Focus staff around a problem Understanding behaviours Identifying intervention points Simulating potential interventions SIMUL ULATIO TION N MODELLING LLING WORKS KSHO HOPS PS & FOCUS S GROUP UPS

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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SI SIMULATION LATION MODEL DELLING ING

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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TotalLAC Years

500 650 800 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Nointervention ReduceCINinflow IncreaseCINoutflow ReduceCPinflow IncreaseCPoutflow ReduceCINtoLAC ReduceCPtoLAC IncreaseLACexits

IDENTIFYING NTIFYING INTERVENTION ERVENTION POINTS NTS

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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TESTING STING ST STRATE ATEGIES GIES

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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PROCESS CESS INSIG SIGHTS TS

The e pr process cess of group up model del bu buildi ding g has s be been n va valuable able in its tsel elf

  • 1. Connecting people from across the system
  • 2. Providing an understanding of the system as a whole
  • 3. Staff understanding the interdependence of behaviour
  • 4. Providing alignment between staff at all levels
  • 5. Generating clarity around how complex decisions are made
  • 6. Refining strategies for intervention in the system

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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LEARNING ARNING

  • 1. Once you have a model it tends to be treated as an oracle

Clarity rity and d do document mentati ation

  • n around

und qu questi tions

  • ns th

the e mode del l can a and d canno not t answ swer er

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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  • 2. Agreeing on a reference mode to focus the model is difficult

Questi tioning

  • ning initi

tial al re reference rence mode des s and d sp spending nding ti time se seek eking ing alignm nmen ent t on th the e ke key focus

LEARNING ARNING

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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  • 3. Transitioning from the exploration phase to a model brings expectations that

everything is modelled Use se a sm small all, , highly hly enga gaged ged model delling ing group p with thin n th the e local al auth thority

  • rity

LEARNING ARNING

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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  • 4. Explaining flow and accumulation

Acti tivi viti ties es sp specif ifical cally ly around und accumul mulation ation ri right ht at t th the start

LEARNING ARNING

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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  • 5. Difficult to model intangibles (e.g. case complexity)

Small all group p of engaged gaged so social ial worker ers s for r de deeper eper insi sights ghts and d focuse sed d re review views s of literatu ature re

LEARNING ARNING

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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  • 6. Identifying an intervention point doesn’t tell you how to intervene

Expl plori

  • ring

ng th the be best t pr practice tice literatu ature re and d filling g gaps ps in evide idence ce with th se service ice de desig sign

LEARNING ARNING

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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  • 7. Administrative data is often not enough to understand complex system

behaviours (e.g. intake reasons) Case se file analy alysis sis to su supp pplement ment gaps ps

LEARNING ARNING

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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  • Preliminary model insights to work with
  • Using best practice literature and service design to make

changes around intervention points

  • Modelling out additional structural changes
  • Identifying potential indicators of change
  • Lasting tool for strategic thinking

OPPO PORTU RTUNITIES NITIES

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018

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QUESTIO STIONS NS

UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018