Applying a Planning Tool for the Louisiana Coastal Master Plan David Groves, Ph.D. Christopher Sharon, M.Phil. Debra Knopman, Ph.D. State of the Coast Conference www.stateofthecoast.org New Orleans, Louisiana June 26, 2012
For More Information … . � Louisiana’s 2012 Coastal Master Plan – www.coastalmasterplan.louisiana.gov/ � Technical Documentation of the Planning Tool – http://www.lacpra.org/assets/docs/2012%20Master%20Plan/Final %20Plan/appendices/FINAL-Appendix-E- PlanningToolFINAL_2012_03_28-topost.pdf Groves-2 Jun-2012
Presentation Outline � Planning Challenge � CPRA Planning Tool � Use of Planning Tool to Support Master Plan Groves-3 Jun-2012
CPRA’s Louisiana Coastal Master Plan Seeks Coastal Sustainability … Flood Risk Reduction Restoration Groves-4 Jun-2012
… While Balancing Diverse Objectives Decision Criteria and Ecosystem Services Oyster Distribution of flood risk Shrimp across socioeconomic groups Freshwater Availability Flood protection of historic properties Alligator Flood protection of strategic Waterfowl assets Saltwater Fisheries Operation and maintenance costs Freshwater Fisheries Sustainability Carbon Sequestration Support for navigation Nitrogen Removal Use of natural processes Agriculture/Aquaculture Support for cultural heritage Other Coastal Wildlife Support for oil & gas Nature-Based Tourism Groves-5 Jun-2012
Master Plan Considered Hundreds of Different Projects to Address Flood Risk and Land Loss Nonstructural Measures Groves-6 Jun-2012
Models Used To Evaluate Projects Generated Significant Amounts of Data Groves-7 Jun-2012
Uncertainty About Future Conditions Yielded Different Predictions of Project Effects Scenarios Describe Different Plausible Future Conditions Groves-8 Jun-2012
There is No Optimal Solution—Important Tradeoffs Must Be Made � Risk reduction � Restoration � Use of river � Maintenance of diversions current salinity . gradients � Near term � Long term benefits sustainability Groves-9 Jun-2012
The CPRA Planning Tool Was Developed to Support the Formulation of the Master Plan • RAND Gulf States Policy Institute • Master Plan Delivery Team members – CPRA – University of New Orleans – Brown and Caldwell Groves-10 Jun-2012
The Planning Tool Is a Computer-Based Decision Support Tool 1. Compares and ranks CPRA individual projects New Orleans Planning Tool 2. Develops different combinations of projects for comprehensive strategy 3. Uses interactive visualizations to display tradeoffs and support decisionmaking Groves-11 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Evaluates Hundreds of Restoration and Risk Reduction Projects 43 Sediment diversion 101 Marsh creation 96 Other restoration Implementing all projects would 34 Structural risk reduction cost more than 112 Non-structural risk reduction $200 billion Groves-12 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Compares Individual Projects -- Risk Reduction Cost Effectiveness -- Non-Structural Project Structural Project Groves-13 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Compares Individual Projects -- Near and Long Term Land -- Long Term Land (Year 50) Groves-14 Jun-2012 Near Term Land (Year 20)
Planning Tool Compares Individual Projects -- Effects on Ecosystem Services -- Example: Upper Breton Diversion 250,000 cfs Freshwater Carbon Coastal Freshwater Saltwater Nature Based Storm Surge/ Availability Alligator Sequestration Wildlife Fisheries Oysters Fisheries Shrimp Crawfish Tourism Waves Waterfowl Upper Pontchartrain Mid Pontchartrain Lower Pontchartrain Upper Barataria Lower Barataria Groves-15 Jun-2012 Birdsfoot Delta
Planning Tool Assembles Different Project Combinations to Meet Louisiana’s Objectives � Uses constrained mixed integer program to select combinations of projects that maximize land building and risk reduction Risk Reduction Objective Function Land Area Groves-16 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Assembles Different Project Combinations to Meet Louisiana’s Objectives � Choices are constrained by funding, available sediment, and river flow Groves-17 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Assembles Different Project Combinations to Meet Louisiana’s Objectives � Combinations balance ecosystem health, navigation, and other coastal interests Coastal habitats Decision Criteria Groves-18 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Analysis Based on Few Key Assumptions � Individual project effects are additive � Risk reduction projects affect flood risk only � Restoration projects affect land and ecosystem metrics only Analysis in progress relaxes these assumptions by modeling the Master Plan as a single comprehensive project Groves-19 Jun-2012
Example: Which Projects Should Louisiana Choose to Maximize Land Building and Risk Reduction? 12 Sediment diversion 25 Marsh creation 52 Other restoration 15 Structural risk reduction $ $50 billion 33 Non-structural risk reduction budget Groves-20 Jun-2012
Restoration Projects Would Lead to Significant Increases in Land 5,000 Maximize land Total land building in coastal study 4,500 area (square miles) Do nothing (future without 4,000 2012 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 action) Year Groves-21 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Used To Formulate Master Plan in Iterative Sequence of Steps 1. Compare Individual Planning Projects Tool Team Develop Alternatives 2. Formulate Alternatives Revised Interactive instructions visualizations 3. Define Draft Master Plan Deliberate Planning over 4. Define Final Team and tradeoffs Master Plan stakeholders Groves-22 Jun-2012
Explored Funding Scenarios and Allocation Between Risk Reduction and Restoration Projects Long Term Land Building (relative to current levels) Long Term Risk Reduction Groves-23 Jun-2012
Evaluated Balance Between Near Term and Long Term Benefits Groves-24 Jun-2012
Compared Alternatives Effects on Land Area Groves-25 Jun-2012
Compared Alternatives Effects on Decision Criteria Increasing navigation Land Area Effect of Alternative by Year 50 (sq km) 1800 decision criteria has minimal effects on Max Land 1600 land initially 1400 1200 Significant decline in land 1000 building as navigation decision criterion score is increased further 800 600 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 Supports Navigation Groves-26 Jun-2012
Compared Alternatives Effects on Ecosystem Metrics Land Area Effect of Alternative by Year 50 (sq km) 1,750 1,700 Max Land 1,650 1,600 Decline in land building as 1,550 the amount of potential shrimp habitat is 1,500 increased 1,450 41,000 42,000 43,000 44,000 45,000 46,000 47,000 48,000 49,000 50,000 51,000 Suitability for Shrimp Habitat (Index) Groves-27 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Developed Draft Alternative for the Draft Master Plan (January 2012) � Identified risk reduction and restoration projects � Broad Project implementation schedule � Estimated combined effect of all projects Groves-28 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Evaluated Public Comments to Develop Final Master Plan (April 2012) � Example: Lake Charles Levee was included in draft master plan and was of concern – Planning Tool showed that eliminating it would increase risk too much – Instead, final plan defers construction until later years to permit additional study Increased risk w/o levee Groves-29 Jun-2012
CPRA Planning Tool Summary Workbook Presents Results from Analyses � Interactive results presented � Public version of the in Tableau visualization summary workbook to be environment available soon Groves-30 Jun-2012
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