Applying a Planning Tool for the Louisiana Coastal Master Plan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Applying a Planning Tool for the Louisiana Coastal Master Plan

David Groves, Ph.D. Christopher Sharon, M.Phil. Debra Knopman, Ph.D.

State of the Coast Conference www.stateofthecoast.org New Orleans, Louisiana June 26, 2012

Groves-2 Jun-2012

For More Information….

Louisiana’s 2012 Coastal Master Plan

– www.coastalmasterplan.louisiana.gov/

Technical Documentation of the Planning Tool

– http://www.lacpra.org/assets/docs/2012%20Master%20Plan/Final %20Plan/appendices/FINAL-Appendix-E- PlanningToolFINAL_2012_03_28-topost.pdf

Groves-3 Jun-2012

Presentation Outline Planning Challenge CPRA Planning Tool Use of Planning Tool to Support Master Plan

Groves-4 Jun-2012

CPRA’s Louisiana Coastal Master Plan Seeks Coastal Sustainability …

Flood Risk Reduction Restoration

Groves-5 Jun-2012

Decision Criteria and Ecosystem Services

Distribution of flood risk across socioeconomic groups Flood protection of historic properties Flood protection of strategic assets Operation and maintenance costs Sustainability Support for navigation Use of natural processes Support for cultural heritage Support for oil & gas Oyster Shrimp Freshwater Availability Alligator Waterfowl Saltwater Fisheries Freshwater Fisheries Carbon Sequestration Nitrogen Removal Agriculture/Aquaculture Other Coastal Wildlife Nature-Based Tourism

… While Balancing Diverse Objectives

Groves-6 Jun-2012

Master Plan Considered Hundreds of Different Projects to Address Flood Risk and Land Loss

Nonstructural Measures

Groves-7 Jun-2012

Models Used To Evaluate Projects Generated Significant Amounts of Data

Groves-8 Jun-2012

Uncertainty About Future Conditions Yielded Different Predictions of Project Effects

Scenarios Describe Different Plausible Future Conditions

Groves-9 Jun-2012

There is No Optimal Solution—Important Tradeoffs Must Be Made Risk reduction Use of river

diversions .

Near term

benefits

Restoration Maintenance of

current salinity gradients

Long term

sustainability

Groves-10 Jun-2012

• RAND Gulf States Policy Institute
• Master Plan Delivery Team members

– CPRA – University of New Orleans – Brown and Caldwell

The CPRA Planning Tool Was Developed to Support the Formulation of the Master Plan

Groves-11 Jun-2012

New Orleans

• 1. Compares and ranks

individual projects

• 2. Develops different

combinations of projects for comprehensive strategy

• 3. Uses interactive

visualizations to display tradeoffs and support decisionmaking

The Planning Tool Is a Computer-Based Decision Support Tool

CPRA Planning Tool

Groves-12 Jun-2012

Planning Tool Evaluates Hundreds of Restoration and Risk Reduction Projects

43 Sediment diversion 101 Marsh creation 96 Other restoration Implementing all projects would cost more than $200 billion 34 Structural risk reduction 112 Non-structural risk reduction

Groves-13 Jun-2012

Structural Project Non-Structural Project

Planning Tool Compares Individual Projects

• - Risk Reduction Cost Effectiveness --

Groves-14 Jun-2012

Near Term Land (Year 20) Long Term Land (Year 50)

Planning Tool Compares Individual Projects

• - Near and Long Term Land --

Groves-15 Jun-2012

Example: Upper Breton Diversion 250,000 cfs

Alligator Carbon Sequestration Coastal Wildlife Freshwater Fisheries Nature Based Tourism Oysters Saltwater Fisheries Shrimp Storm Surge/ Waves Freshwater Availability Waterfowl Crawfish Upper Pontchartrain Mid Pontchartrain Lower Pontchartrain Upper Barataria Lower Barataria Birdsfoot Delta

Planning Tool Compares Individual Projects

• - Effects on Ecosystem Services --

Groves-16 Jun-2012

Planning Tool Assembles Different Project Combinations to Meet Louisiana’s Objectives

Uses constrained mixed integer

program to select combinations of projects that maximize land building and risk reduction

Risk Reduction Land Area

Objective Function

Groves-17 Jun-2012

Planning Tool Assembles Different Project Combinations to Meet Louisiana’s Objectives

Choices are constrained by funding,

available sediment, and river flow

Groves-18 Jun-2012

Planning Tool Assembles Different Project Combinations to Meet Louisiana’s Objectives

Combinations balance ecosystem health,

navigation, and other coastal interests

Coastal habitats Decision Criteria

Groves-19 Jun-2012

Planning Tool Analysis Based on Few Key Assumptions

Individual project effects are additive Risk reduction projects affect flood risk only Restoration projects affect land and ecosystem

metrics only Analysis in progress relaxes these assumptions by modeling the Master Plan as a single comprehensive project

Groves-20 Jun-2012

Example: Which Projects Should Louisiana Choose

to Maximize Land Building and Risk Reduction?

12 Sediment diversion 25 Marsh creation 52 Other restoration 15 Structural risk reduction 33 Non-structural risk reduction

$

$50 billion budget

Groves-21 Jun-2012

Restoration Projects Would Lead to Significant Increases in Land

5,000 4,500 4,000

Total land in coastal study area (square miles)

2012 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061

Year

Maximize land building Do nothing (future without action)

Groves-22 Jun-2012

Planning Tool Used To Formulate Master Plan in Iterative Sequence of Steps

• 1. Compare

Individual Projects

• 2. Formulate

Alternatives

• 3. Define Draft

Master Plan

• 4. Define Final

Master Plan

Develop Alternatives Deliberate

• ver

tradeoffs

Interactive visualizations Revised instructions Planning Tool Team Planning Team and stakeholders

Groves-23 Jun-2012

Explored Funding Scenarios and Allocation Between Risk Reduction and Restoration Projects

Long Term Risk Reduction Long Term Land Building (relative to current levels)

Groves-24 Jun-2012

Evaluated Balance Between Near Term and Long Term Benefits

Groves-25 Jun-2012

Compared Alternatives Effects on Land Area

Groves-26 Jun-2012

600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

• 2.5
• 2
• 1.5
• 1
• 0.5

0.5 1 1.5

Significant decline in land building as navigation decision criterion score is increased further

Supports Navigation

Land Area Effect of Alternative by Year 50 (sq km)

Increasing navigation decision criteria has minimal effects on land initially

Max Land

Compared Alternatives Effects on Decision Criteria

Groves-27 Jun-2012

1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 41,000 42,000 43,000 44,000 45,000 46,000 47,000 48,000 49,000 50,000 51,000

Decline in land building as the amount of potential shrimp habitat is increased

Land Area Effect of Alternative by Year 50 (sq km)

Max Land

Suitability for Shrimp Habitat (Index)

Compared Alternatives Effects on Ecosystem Metrics

Groves-28 Jun-2012

Planning Tool Developed Draft Alternative for the Draft Master Plan (January 2012) Identified risk

reduction and restoration projects

Broad Project

implementation schedule

Estimated

combined effect

• f all projects

Groves-29 Jun-2012

Planning Tool Evaluated Public Comments to Develop Final Master Plan (April 2012) Example: Lake Charles Levee was included

in draft master plan and was of concern

– Planning Tool showed that eliminating it would increase risk too much – Instead, final plan defers construction until later years to permit additional study

Increased risk w/o levee

Groves-30 Jun-2012

CPRA Planning Tool Summary Workbook Presents Results from Analyses

Interactive results presented

in Tableau visualization environment

Public version of the

summary workbook to be available soon