Anticipatory hybrid governance testing a conceptual model for a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Anticipatory hybrid governance

– testing a conceptual model for a peer-to-peer-driven urban landscape

Thursday 9 November 2017 Anticipation Conference: Session 33 Senate House, London

Joni Karjalainen, Marjukka Parkkinen, Sirkka Heinonen & Juho Ruotsalainen joni.karjalainen@ utu.fi University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre, Project researcher University of Sussex, Science Policy Research Unit, SPRU, Visiting Fellow

Neo-Carbon Energy – Transformative Energy Futures 2050 (NEO-FORE)

• The foresight part of the project has aimed to study a possibly distributed

energy production system, related economic, political, cultural and social changes, driven by low-carbon technologies and emerging issues

• Key research question: what kinds of novel business opportunities,
• rganisational models and lifestyles does the peer-to-peer neo-carbon

society enable to companies, citizens and society?

• See: www.neocarbonenergy.fi

University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) Professor Sirkka Heinonen Project researchers J uho Ruotsalainen, M arjukka Parkkinen and J

• ni Karjalainen

Tekes – The Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation

Economically viable city centre and urbanizing downtown (ENCORE)

• The aim of the project has been to explore the novel success factors of city

centres and illustrate the future possibilities of urban planning

• Key research question: how the interaction between different actors

(citizens, city management, companies, and organisations) can improve the attractiveness and liveability of a city?

University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) Professor Sirkka Heinonen Project researchers J uho Ruotsalainen, M arjukka Parkkinen and J

• ni Karjalainen

Turku Urban Research Programme

FORESIGHT METHODOLOGY

• In ENCORE project, building on previous research, urban

futures were probed using three analytical lenses

1. meaningful urban environment 2. grassroots approaches and local democracy 3. hybrid spaces

• Emphasis of horizon scanning in emerging issues and

especially weak signals, early signs of phenomena with potential for strategic relevance. 100 collected, 10 more closely examined

• Not only identification,

interpretation of weak signals is important

Heinonen & Hiltunen 2012, Hiltunen 2010, Kuusi & Hiltunen 2007; Hiltunen 2016, Lesca & Lesca 2012, Mendonça et al 2012

WAITING WALL

Waiting Wall, art by Alan Donohoe and Steven Parker in Brighton train station. A digital display displaying confessions of anonymous people. The contents of these messages vary from work-related confessions to disclosures of love life and worries about health. Contemporary adaptation of Jerusalem’s Wailing Wall.

UVAs in MEDELLÍN

http:/ / www.archdaily.com/ 782851/ uva-el-paraiso-edu-empresa-de-desarrollo-urbano-de-medellin

In Colombia, the City of Medellín experienced a metamorphosis from a city with high criminal rates into

• ne of the most liveable and

equitable urban environments. Various infrastructural improvements were made, with an emphasis on sustainability and inclusiveness. The idea of UVAs is to create public spaces that bring further opportunities for the citizens.

UVAs, Unidades de Vida Articulada (Articulated Life Units) can be described as neighbourhood-level urban interventions.

SELF-PRODUCERS OF ENERGY

Photo: BP

Utility bought electricity has placed citizens as passive users. Energy prosumerism would allow citizens to self-produce their own energy. Further transformations could come with self- driving, electric cars and eco-friendly technologies.

The cost of solar PV is now less than 1/100 of what it was in the 1970s, in use already in the 1990s, but have begun to spread only in recent

• years. China has now risen as a mass-
• manufacturer. Emergence from a marginal

phenomenon to a trend, the technology is increasingly accessible to citizens.

”PROSUMER” = PRODUCER+ CONSUMER

Self-organising and activism in a peer-to-peer society

1) community activism 2) sharing economy, platform economy (e.g. community exchange, neighbourhood rental services) 3) spatial activism (e.g. art projects as activism, squatting) 4) ICT-aided digital activism 5) activism in support of other activities

(Pasi M äenpää & M aija Faehnle)

• City as commons: city environment

created and upheld by its citizens and community groups

• Attention to the growing recognition

and potential of ‘self-organizing’ and ‘P2P networks’ in shaping urban futures

• Self-organizing peer-to-peer networks

networks (no central and hierarchical coordination) produce commons freely,

• penly exchanged resources (cf. Linux,

Wikipedia)

Read: Michel Bauwens (2003), Y

• chai Benkler (2006), David Harvey (2013)

PEER-TO-PEER

WHAT IS THE ROLE OF DECISION-MAKERS?

Recognise power and constant change as crucial elements of

• rganizational life …

Inspire people from the bottom-up… Overcome the silo effect… Communicate…

governance = ”steering the society”

• M ulti-level governance

(Hooghe & M arks 2001; M arquardt 2017)

• Deliberative

” (Dryzek 2012; Hendriks 2009)

• Adaptive

” (Chaffin 2014; Hurlbert & Gupta 2016)

• Reflexive

” (Voß et al., 2011)

• Anticipatory

” (Barben et al. 2008; Guston 2014, Poli 2017)

• Hybrid

” (Colona & Jaffe 2016)

EMERGING GOVERNANCE APPROACHES

?

EMERGING GOVERNANCE THEORIES

Anticipatory governance as…

• 1) how research, development, application and use of a technology are

developed and steered, between adapting to a coming revolution and halting development in the context of emerging technologies (Barben, Fisher, Selin, & Guston, 2008).

• 2) a stance in urban planning approaches (Quay 2010)
• 3) bringing forward engagement, with a whole-of-government

(governance) approach to complex issues, to be cultivated as a systemic culture (Fuerth 2009) (Poli 2017)

ANTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE

• Hybrid = questioning conventional structures, ways of
• rganising, a phenomenon combining previously distinct

spheres

• Attempt to understand the mutual entanglement of actors

through ‘hybrid governance’ arrangements

• Added value of the hybridity approach lies exactly in the

blurring of lines between the different actors involved

HYBRID GOVERNANCE

(Colona & Jaffe 2016)

ANTICIPATOR Y HYBRID GOVERNANCE

Proposing a set of principles: 1. accounts systematically for foresight knowledge, prepares for alternative outcomes and risks 2. allows for flexibility in the governance approaches for best possible outcomes, with multi-level actors 3. harnesses the logics of peer-to-peer and digitalisation 4. allows spontaneous behaviour, such as piloting potential solutions 5. is to be cultivated across all organizational levels, as a systemic culture

When analyzing weak signals through an anticipatory lens of governance, the following questions are important:

• What implications will the occurrence of

these weak signals have on urban governance?

• How should urban governance react to

such changes?

• How to follow these suggested principles?

ANTICIPATOR Y HYBRID GOVERNANCE: IMPLICATIONS

Conducting fores ight s ys tematically Collaborating w ith citizens as partners – acros s ’conventional’ s iloes Pioneering – for a divers e, liveable s

• ciety and culture

Harnes s ing the logic and tools of digital communications and peer-to-peer (P2P) networks Defining actions bas ed on ecological, s

• cial s

us tainability and cultural divers ity

Model of anticipatory hybrid governance

DISCUSSION

• We propose anticipatory hybrid governance for identifying weak

signals, designing new principles – allowing a range of governance approaches for proactively shaping the future.

• What gaps could potentially emerge?
• Combining ‘anticipation’ and ‘hybridity’ is appealing for peer-to-

peer futures. In a self-organizing city, could the private strengthen over the public sphere? If so, is this a desirable or non-desirable future?

KEY REFERENCES

Batty, M ichael (2013). The New Science of Cities. M IT Press, M assachusetts. Benkler, Y. (2006) The Wealth of Networks How Social Production Transforms M arkets and Freedom. London: Yale University Press. Budhathoki, N.R & Haythornthwaite, C. (2012) M otivation for Open Collaboration: Crowd and Community M odels and the Case of OpenStreetM ap. American Behavioral Scientist, 57:5, 548–575. Colona, F. & J affe R. (2016) Hybrid Governance Arrangements. The European J

• urnal of Development Research 28: 2, pp 175–183

Forte, A. & Lampe, C. (2013). Defining, Understanding, and Supporting Open Collaboration: Lessons From the Literature. American Behavioral Scientist, 57:5, 535–547. Guston, D.H. (2014) Understanding Anticipatory Governance. Social Studies of Science, 44: 2, 218-242. Girardet, Herbert (2014). Creating Regenerative Cities. Hiltunen, E. (2010) Weak Signals in Organizational Futures Learning, Doctoral dissertation, Helsinki: Aalto University School of Economics, http:/ / epub.lib.aalto.fi/ fi/ diss/ ?cmd=show&dissid=400 Harvey, D. (2012) Rebel Cities: From the Right to the City to the Urban Revolution. London: Verso. J acobs, J ane (1961) The Death and Life of Great American Cities Karinen R, Guston DH (2010) Toward anticipatory governance: The experience with nanotechnology. In: Kaiser M , Kurath M , M aasen S, Rehmann- Sutter C (eds.) Governing Future Technologies: Nanotechnology and the Rise of an Assessment Regime. Dordrecht: Springer, pp. 217–232. Kostakis, V. & Bauwens, M . (2014). Network Society and Future Scenarios for a Collaborative Economy. Palgrave M acmillan, New York. Pierre, J . (2014) Can Urban Regimes Travel in Time and Space? Urban Regime Theory, Urban Governance Theory, and Comparative Urban Politics Poli, R. (2017) Introduction to Anticipation Studies. Anticipation Science 1. Springer. 275 p, 10.1007/ 978-3-319-63023-6

ENCORE and NEO-CARBON ENERGY Research Projects: https:/ / www.utu.fi/ en/ units/ ffrc/ research/ project-archive/ foresight-nat/ Pages/ encore.aspx https:/ / www.utu.fi/ en/ units/ ffrc/ research/ projects/ energy/ Pages/ neo-fore.aspx Peer-reviewed articles Heinonen S, Parkkinen M, Karjalainen J, Ruotsalainen J (2017), Energising Peer-to-Peer Urban Futures - Challenges for Urban Governance. Procedia Engineering. 198, 267-282 https:/ / doi.org/ 10.1016/ j.proeng.2017.07.160 Heinonen, S. & Minkkinen, M. (2016). Interpreting built cityscape: Deconstructing the metaphorical messages of futuristic buildings, Futures, ISSN 0016-3287, http:/ / dx.doi.org/ 10.1016/ j.futures.2016.03.015. Juho Ruotsalainen, Sirkka Heinonen, Joni Karjalainen and Marjukka Parkkinen (2016), Peer-to-peer work in the digital meaning society 2050, European Journal for Futures Research 4:10, Dec 2016, https:/ / doi.org/ 10.1007/s40309-016-0092-2 Open access link: http:/ / paperity.org/ p/ 78129453/ peer-to-peer- work-in-the-digital-meaning-society-2050 Ruotsalainen Juho, Joni Karjalainen, Michael Child & Sirkka Heinonen (2017) Culture, values, lifestyles, and power in energy futures: a critical peer-to-peer vision for renewable energy, Energy Research & Social Science 34: 231– 239, http:/ / www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/ pii/S2214629617302402

Joni Karjalainen, Project researcher University of T urku, Finland Futures Research Centre University of Sussex, Science Policy Research Unit, SPRU joni.karjalainen@utu.fi Twitter: @jonikarjalainen researchgate.net/ profile/Joni_Karjalainen https:/ / www.utu.fi/ en/ units/ ffrc/ research/ project-archive/ foresight-nat/ Pages/encore.aspx https:/ / www.utu.fi/ en/ units/ ffrc/ research/ projects/ energy/ Pages/ neo-fore.aspx

Read more:

Heinonen S, Parkkinen M, Karjalainen J, Ruotsalainen J (2017), Energising Peer-to-Peer Urban Futures - Challenges for Urban Governance. Procedia Engineering. 198, 267-282 https:/ / doi.org/ 10.1016/ j.proeng.2017.07.160