A Tool for Enabling Anticipatory Thinking in Smart City Planning - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Computer Science

A Tool for Enabling Anticipatory Thinking in Smart City Planning

Muhammad Shahzad (CSC, NCSU) Yannis Viniotis (ECE, NCSU) Kathleen Vogel (PP, UMD)

Computer Science

Agenda

• Introduction of Anticipatory Thinking
• Introduction of Futures Wheel
• Anticipatory Thinking in Smart Cities
• Objectives of Our Tool
• Demo

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What is Anticipatory Thinking (AT)

• Foreseeing and preparing for problems and
• pportunities in advance
• Exploratory by nature

– Identify consequences – Identify consequences of consequences – And so on…

• Best done by domain experts

– One can not anticipate what one does not know about – Knowledge and Experience: both are needed

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How is AT different from Prediction?

• My view

– Prediction of a consequence is done when the consequence is known apriori – AT is more open ended: consequences are explored, and not necessarily known apriori

• Other views

– AT is functional

• Preparing for future, not simply predicting what might happen
• AT also involves establishing connections between

events – Appreciate and utilize their interdependencies

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Examples

• Prediction

– How will increase in temperature affect total power demand of a city? – The focus is on a specific quantity

• Anticipatory Thinking

– What consequences might the increase in temperature have on routine city operations?

• Increase in power demand
• Increase in water consumption
• Reduction in outdoor activities

– Change in traffic patterns

» Congestion on roads

• AT can help identify low probability - high impact events

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What is Futures Wheel

• A visualization method to apply AT

– It basically entails asking what else or what’s next – Helps brainstorm the direct and indirect consequences of an event, decision, change, or trend

• Consequences can be positive, negative, or neutral

– The organization it brings can help reduce uncertainty about the event, decision, change, or trend – A qualitative method

• At least for now!

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How to Construct a Futures Wheel

• Write the event, decision, change, or trend in the center

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How to Construct a Futures Wheel

• Brainstorm possible direct consequences of this event
• Positive as well as negative
• These are "first-order" consequences
• Write each consequence in a circle, and connect it from

the central event

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How to Construct a Futures Wheel

• Brainstorm possible direct consequences of the first-
• rder consequences.
• These are “second-order" consequences
• Add them to the diagram in the same way
• Repeat the process for third-order, fourth-order

consequences and so on

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Source: https://www.mindtools.com/pa ges/article/futures-wheel.htm

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Example: Department Budget Cut

Source: https://www.mindtools.com/pa ges/article/futures-wheel.htm

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Example: Flint Water Crisis

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Benefits of Futures Wheel

• A broad range of possible consequences identified

quickly

• Consequences are connected, so one can see their

pathways

• One can study complex interrelationships between

consequences

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A TOOL TO FACILITATE ANTICIPATORY THINKING FOR SMART CITY PLANNING

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The Need for AT in Smart Cities

• As cities grow, various services that the city offers can

interact and impact each other in numerous ways

• Anticipatory thinking can enable to identify such

interactions and impacts

• AT can also help in identifying the best method to

achieve a goal

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City Planners Already using AT… Implicitly!

• Indirect Statements in Policies (many)

– Policy AP-FON 1: Falls of Neuse Corridor Character. Protect the character of the corridor. Maintain the sense of place created by the extensive roadside vegetation, the Falls Lake dam, and Falls Community.

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Collaboration with City Planners & Smart City Technology Designers

• We plan to interview 10-30 professionals who are either city planners or smart city

technology designers in order to better understand their: – work and its constraints – thoughts about so-called “smart cities” – ideas about the tools future city planners will need – perceptions of policy changes that will need accompany smart technologies – reactions to a proposed “anticipatory thinking” software designed to assist them in their work

• From these interviews, we will derive a robust description of their activities, the

constraints they operate within, and their perceived technological needs.

• By relaying this information to the engineers/designers, we will better ensure that

the software produced is of use to city planners -- furthermore, our research may allow us to uncover technical needs that are not being addressed, but could be addressed (by future LAS projects).

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Current Objectives of Our Tool

• Using the Futures Wheel concept

– Visual

• Enable exploration of consequences of any given event/action
• Help identify good paths from bad paths

– Analytical

• Calculate likelihoods of occurrences of various consequences

– Conventional Futures wheel was qualitative

• Provide hints to smart city planners in identifying consequences

– Hard coded – Basic text analysis based

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Future Objectives of Our Tool

• Gather the wisdom of many city planners over the years

and use it to benefit future smart city planning. – Recall the Knowledge and Experience discussion

• Automatically identify similar consequences in the wheel
• Automatically generate a preliminary Futures Wheel
• Automatically generate the Futures Wheel for any given

situation

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A DEMO