THE PATHWAY TO A SAFER CLIMATE FUTURE AND A REPORT FROM THE TRENCHES ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY NOAH HOROWITZ SENIOR SCIENTIST NHOROWITZ@NRDC.ORG MAY 2019
NRDC Pathways Report: https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/americas-clean-energy-frontier-es.pdf Getting to 80% reductions by 2050
By 2050: Cut energy use, clean up the grid, electrify fy CO2 emissions under How we achieve NRDC core various scenarios scenario emissions outcome 1. Energy Efficiency 2. Renewable Electricity 3. Clean Electrification 4. Decarbornization of Fuels • Grid modernization and expansion vital to support renewable growth and electrification of buildings and vehicles Non-CO2 reductions, • (methane, nitrous oxides, and refrigerants) also required to meet targets
Key Strategies Energy Efficiency - energy demand reduced by 40% Renewables – expand to 70% of total electricity supply, mainly new solar and wind. Modernize the grid (including storage). Electrify – use near zero carbon electricity to displace fossil fuels in transport, buildings, and industry Decarbonize – some of remaining fuel uses (transport and industry)
Energy demand is cut by half due to efficient and electric technologies • Energy efficiency investments reduce total energy demand by 40%, with electric heating and vehicles reducing total demand by another 10%. • Fossil-fuel use drops 70% by 2050 from current levels . Coal consumptions falls by 80%, and natural gas and oil is reduced by about 65% 90 80 Saved Energy 70 Final Delivered Energy (EJ) Waste Heat & CHP 60 Oil & Petroleum 50 Natural Gas 40 Nonrenewable 30 Electricity 20 Renewably Derived Fuels 10 Renewable Electricity 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Renewables grow to provide 80% of electricity 5,000 4,500 4,000 CHP Wind Electricty Consumed (TWh) 3,500 Solar Geothermal 3,000 Hydro 2,500 Nuclear Biomass 2,000 Fossil w/ CCS 1,500 Gas Oil 1,000 Coal 500 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Incremental transmission needs total $926 billion over the 35 year period. Improved load factors and reduced peak demand thanks to smarter appliances, off-peak EV charging, and behavioral conservation reduce distribution system spending by $660 billion. Net T&D costs fall to $265 billion (or $7.6 billion a year).
Electricity use in transportation becomes a significant demand driver Electricity Consumption in Light-Duty Vehicles • Full and plug-in electric 450 250 vehicles represent over 70% of passenger 400 vehicle stock by 2050. 200 350 • Reflect 85% of sales in 2050, with 300 other 15% non- Millions of EVs on Road 150 250 plug-in hybrids. In TWH • Sales of EVs ramp up 200 100 significantly post-2030, 150 as replacement opportunities before 100 50 2050 disappear 50 • Represent an additional 400 TWh of electricity 0 - 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 demand in 2050.
Electric Heat Pump Water Heating – Gets cleaner over time as the grid improves
HPWH -Real-world barriers to overcome Limited availability (Not on back of plumbers truck) Higher first cost In some states, utilities can’t provide incentives that result in fuel switching (so no rebates from electric utility to existing gas customer who is considering energy efficient electric heat pump water heater) May need electrical upgrade – can be deal breaker due to additional cost or hassle Best near term wins – new construction
Reducing the cost of natural gas to electric heat pump water heater retrofits 120-volt Standar St dard d Ne New Pl w Plug g and Pla d Play HPWH HP WH HP HPWH WH “Plug and Play” • Requires 240 volt • 120 volt • Designed for electric • Can be plugged into HPWH resistance existing shared 15 A replacement (240 V circuit available) • Due to slower • Gas retrofit require recharge, requires costly electrical larger size and/or conduits, and higher temperature potential panel or for same home needs service upgrade Developed spec with OEMs and CA utilities • Products expected on the market Q1 2020 • Rebates coming in 2020 to jump start market • 11
Building Codes – Build it Right the First Time ❑ Applies to new and major retrofits/remodels (no current trigger/reqt to update existing inefficient buildings. Coming?) ❑ Two sets of codes – residential (typically up to 4 stories) and commercial (includes >4 story residential) ❑ National model building codes – IECC for residential and ASHRAE 90.1 for commercial buildings ❑ Implementation is at state and local level and is all over the place
Latest Building Code Trends/Goals • Zero Net Energy (ZNE) – energy efficient plus offsetting renewables • All Electric Buildings (removes emissions from burning fossil fuels for space and water heating, dryers, cooking) – interim step. Some leading cities beginning to incentivize or require this. • Zero Emissions Buildings (ZEB) or Zero Net Carbon - will require combination of EE, electrification, PVs, storage and demand flexibility. Los Angeles has 2030 goal (details TBD) • California Title 24 2019 update – first in the nation state code that requires new homes to offset electricity loads (lighting, AC, plug loads) with renewables (on-site rooftop PV or community solar)
The Path to Appliance Standards
Key Tools – ENERGY STAR and Energy Guide Labels
Current Landscape DOE not doing its job – way behind on updating its • standards. DOE trying to hamper future standards – “Process • Rule” proposal would make updates harder/slower Proposal to hand over test method development to • industry DOE (EERE – Energy Efficiency and Renewables) and • EPA Energy Star budgets under attack. >80% cuts proposed for next federal budget
Lighting 101 About 6 billion light bulb sockets in US (billions still • have inefficient bulb) Each home has around 40-50 sockets on average • Lighting historically responsible for around 15% of • total household electricity use Incandescents were incredibly inefficient ➔ 90% of • energy wasted as heat. OUCH LEDs use 6 times less energy to deliver same • amount of light as old incandescent and last a lot longer
Background on US Phaseout of Inefficient Lighting Bulbs In 2007 Philips Lighting Issues “Call to Action” for phaseout Philips, Duke Power and NRDC spoke at National Press Club Event endorsing legislative action (see NY Times article) Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) – after intense negotiation. Statute spells out path to dramatically improve efficiency of new bulbs 22
Biggest Savings of any DOE Standard EVER
Key elements of EISA Phase 1 – 2012-2014 – 28% improvement (i.e. old 100 Watt,1600 lumen bulb can’t use more than 72 Watts) Phase 2 – at least 45 lumens per watt (LPW) as of 1/1/2020 (1600 lumen bulb shall not use more than 35 Watts. LED shown uses 17W) California gets to go two years earlier. 24
The First Stage of the Lighting Standards (image from lightopia.com)
Second Phase of the Regulations (exemptions) DOE required to review list of 22 exempted products and update as appropriate. Final rule published 1/19/2017. Removed exemptions for 3-ways, reflectors, candelabra base, shatter resistant, round globe, etc. IMPACT ➔ the bulbs that go into 2.7 billion sockets (just under half of all US sockets) are now subject to the 2020 regulations.
Second Phase of the Regulations – 2020 efficiency levels The backstop of 45 lumens per watt was triggered. Effectively shifts market to CFLs and LEDs as no incandescent/halogen can meet it today. Incremental benefits from the scope expansion are massive: ➢ $12 billion/year utility bill savings by 2025; Around $100/yr per household ➢ 80 billion kWh/yr (25 power plants) ➔ combined annual electricity use of PA and NJ ➢ Prevent 34 million metric tons of CO2/yr
Additional Background L Prize - $10 million prize for high performing, long lasting LED bulb that can deliver 900 lumens for only 10 Watts and replace the old 60 Watt incandescent. Orderly and smooth transition – industry given 12 years advance notice. Utilities provided billions in rebates to jump start LED market (and obtain energy savings). LED bulb sales volumes up, prices came down
Standards Are at Risk Industry working with DOE to rollback/delay the standards. DOE has proposed to rescind the updated final definition rules from 2017. ➢ Proposal would gut the savings ➢ Proposal is unlawful and lawsuits likely to follow ➢ No technical or economic justification for rollback. US to become dumping ground for inefficient bulbs. (note the European Union phased out these bulbs in 2018, and many developing countries looking to do the same)
Magic Trick – Turn $1 into $50. Yet many still buy the bulb with the lowest price LED replacement Bu Bulb b Typ ype Pow ower er Li Life feti time me Purchase rchase Ten en Year ear (Watt atts) s) (hou ours) rs) Price ce Tot otal al Co Cost for 60 Watt incandescent only uses 10 Watts Just as bright • Price down to • Incan In andesc escent/ ent/ 43 43 1000 00 to to $1.75 .75 $67 $67 hal alogen ogen 2000 00 hou ours rs <$3 in a multipack Payback well • under a year LE LED 10 10 10,000 ,000 to to $3 $3 $13 $13 25,000 ,000 hou ours rs
Recommend
More recommend
