AND A REPORT FROM THE TRENCHES ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY NOAH HOROWITZ - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

THE PATHWAY TO A SAFER CLIMATE FUTURE AND A REPORT FROM THE TRENCHES ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY

NOAH HOROWITZ SENIOR SCIENTIST NHOROWITZ@NRDC.ORG MAY 2019

NRDC Pathways Report: https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/americas-clean-energy-frontier-es.pdf Getting to 80% reductions by 2050

By 2050: Cut energy use, clean up the grid, electrify fy

1. Energy Efficiency 2. Renewable Electricity 3. Clean Electrification 4. Decarbornization of Fuels

• Grid modernization and

expansion vital to support renewable growth and electrification of buildings and vehicles

• Non-CO2 reductions,

(methane, nitrous oxides, and refrigerants) also required to meet targets

CO2 emissions under various scenarios How we achieve NRDC core scenario emissions outcome

Key Strategies

Energy Efficiency - energy demand reduced by 40% Renewables – expand to 70% of total electricity supply, mainly new solar and wind. Modernize the grid (including storage). Electrify – use near zero carbon electricity to displace fossil fuels in transport, buildings, and industry Decarbonize – some of remaining fuel uses (transport and industry)

Energy demand is cut by half due to efficient and electric technologies

• Energy efficiency investments reduce total energy demand by 40%, with

electric heating and vehicles reducing total demand by another 10%.

• Fossil-fuel use drops 70% by 2050 from current levels. Coal consumptions

falls by 80%, and natural gas and oil is reduced by about 65%

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Final Delivered Energy (EJ)

Saved Energy Waste Heat & CHP Oil & Petroleum Natural Gas Nonrenewable Electricity Renewably Derived Fuels Renewable Electricity

Incremental transmission needs total $926 billion over the 35 year period. Improved load factors and reduced peak demand thanks to smarter appliances, off-peak EV charging, and behavioral conservation reduce distribution system spending by $660 billion. Net T&D costs fall to $265 billion (or $7.6 billion a year).

Renewables grow to provide 80% of electricity

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricty Consumed (TWh) CHP Wind Solar Geothermal Hydro Nuclear Biomass Fossil w/ CCS Gas Oil Coal

Electricity use in transportation becomes a significant demand driver

• 50

100 150 200 250 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Millions of EVs on Road In TWH

Electricity Consumption in Light-Duty Vehicles

• Full and plug-in electric

vehicles represent over 70% of passenger vehicle stock by 2050.

• Reflect 85% of

sales in 2050, with

• ther 15% non-

plug-in hybrids.

• Sales of EVs ramp up

significantly post-2030, as replacement

• pportunities before

2050 disappear

• Represent an additional

400 TWh of electricity demand in 2050.

Electric Heat Pump Water Heating – Gets cleaner over time as the grid improves

HPWH -Real-world barriers to overcome

Limited availability (Not on back of plumbers truck) Higher first cost In some states, utilities can’t provide incentives that result in fuel switching (so no rebates from electric utility to existing gas customer who is considering energy efficient electric heat pump water heater) May need electrical upgrade – can be deal breaker due to additional cost or hassle Best near term wins – new construction

St Standar dard d HP HPWH WH Ne New Pl w Plug g and Pla d Play HP HPWH WH

• Requires 240 volt
• Designed for electric

resistance replacement (240 V available)

• Gas retrofit require

costly electrical conduits, and potential panel or service upgrade

• 120 volt
• Can be plugged into

existing shared 15 A circuit

• Due to slower

recharge, requires larger size and/or higher temperature for same home needs

120-volt “Plug and Play” HPWH

• Developed spec with OEMs and CA utilities
• Products expected on the market Q1 2020
• Rebates coming in 2020 to jump start market

Reducing the cost of natural gas to electric heat pump water heater retrofits

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Building Codes – Build it Right the First Time

❑ Applies to new and major retrofits/remodels (no current trigger/reqt to update existing inefficient

• buildings. Coming?)

❑ Two sets of codes – residential (typically up to 4 stories) and commercial (includes >4 story residential) ❑ National model building codes – IECC for residential and ASHRAE 90.1 for commercial buildings ❑ Implementation is at state and local level and is all

• ver the place

Latest Building Code Trends/Goals

• Zero Net Energy (ZNE) – energy efficient plus offsetting

renewables

• All Electric Buildings (removes emissions from burning fossil fuels

for space and water heating, dryers, cooking) –interim step. Some leading cities beginning to incentivize or require this.

• Zero Emissions Buildings (ZEB) or Zero Net Carbon - will require

combination of EE, electrification, PVs, storage and demand

• flexibility. Los Angeles has 2030 goal (details TBD)
• California Title 24 2019 update – first in the nation state code that

requires new homes to offset electricity loads (lighting, AC, plug loads) with renewables (on-site rooftop PV or community solar)

The Path to Appliance Standards

Key Tools – ENERGY STAR and Energy Guide Labels

Current Landscape

• DOE not doing its job – way behind on updating its

standards.

• DOE trying to hamper future standards – “Process

Rule” proposal would make updates harder/slower

• Proposal to hand over test method development to

industry

• DOE (EERE – Energy Efficiency and Renewables) and

EPA Energy Star budgets under attack. >80% cuts proposed for next federal budget

Lighting 101

• About 6 billion light bulb sockets in US (billions still

have inefficient bulb)

• Each home has around 40-50 sockets on average
• Lighting historically responsible for around 15% of

total household electricity use

• Incandescents were incredibly inefficient ➔ 90% of

energy wasted as heat. OUCH

• LEDs use 6 times less energy to deliver same

amount of light as old incandescent and last a lot longer

Background on US Phaseout of Inefficient Lighting Bulbs

In 2007 Philips Lighting Issues “Call to Action” for phaseout Philips, Duke Power and NRDC spoke at National Press Club Event endorsing legislative action (see NY Times article) Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) –after intense negotiation. Statute spells out path to dramatically improve efficiency of new bulbs

22

Biggest Savings of any DOE Standard EVER

Key elements of EISA

Phase 1 – 2012-2014 – 28% improvement (i.e. old 100 Watt,1600 lumen bulb can’t use more than 72 Watts) Phase 2 – at least 45 lumens per watt (LPW) as of 1/1/2020 (1600 lumen bulb shall not use more than 35 Watts. LED shown uses 17W)

California gets to go two years earlier.

24

The First Stage of the Lighting Standards (image from lightopia.com)

Second Phase of the Regulations (exemptions) DOE required to review list of 22 exempted products and update as appropriate. Final rule published 1/19/2017. Removed exemptions for 3-ways, reflectors, candelabra base, shatter resistant, round globe, etc. IMPACT ➔ the bulbs that go into 2.7 billion sockets (just under half of all US sockets) are now subject to the 2020 regulations.

Second Phase of the Regulations – 2020 efficiency levels

The backstop of 45 lumens per watt was triggered. Effectively shifts market to CFLs and LEDs as no incandescent/halogen can meet it today. Incremental benefits from the scope expansion are massive: ➢ $12 billion/year utility bill savings by 2025; Around $100/yr per household ➢ 80 billion kWh/yr (25 power plants) ➔ combined annual electricity use of PA and NJ ➢ Prevent 34 million metric tons of CO2/yr

Additional Background

L Prize - $10 million prize for high performing, long lasting LED bulb that can deliver 900 lumens for only 10 Watts and replace the old 60 Watt incandescent. Orderly and smooth transition – industry given 12 years advance notice. Utilities provided billions in rebates to jump start LED market (and

• btain energy savings). LED bulb sales volumes up, prices came down

Standards Are at Risk

Industry working with DOE to rollback/delay the standards. DOE has proposed to rescind the updated final definition rules from 2017. ➢ Proposal would gut the savings ➢ Proposal is unlawful and lawsuits likely to follow ➢ No technical or economic justification for rollback. US to become dumping ground for inefficient bulbs. (note the European Union phased out these bulbs in 2018, and many developing countries looking to do the same)

Magic Trick – Turn $1 into $50. Yet many still buy the bulb with the lowest price

Bu Bulb b Typ ype Pow

• wer

er (Watt atts) s) Li Life feti time me (hou

• urs)

rs) Purchase rchase Price ce Ten en Year ear Tot

• tal

al Co Cost In Incan andesc escent/ ent/ hal alogen

• gen

43 43 1000 00 to to 2000 00 hou

• urs

rs $1.75 .75 $67 $67 LE LED 10 10 10,000 ,000 to to 25,000 ,000 hou

• urs

rs $3 $3 $13 $13

LED replacement for 60 Watt incandescent only uses 10 Watts

• Just as bright
• Price down to

<$3 in a multipack

• Payback well

under a year

Only part way there to LEDs, DOE standards needed to accelerate and complete full transformation

• Halogen + incand

sales still >50% as

• f 2018
• LED sales exploded

since 2013; CFLs plummeting

• 2020 DOE standards

needed to complete transition

• Also note, data is
• nly for A-lamps;

LED penetration for specialty bulbs likely much lower

Less informed consumer likely to pick “cheaper” four pack of inefficient incandescent reflectors.

32

Ba Bad d de decision cision –For

• r 3 m

3 mor

• re

e do dolla llars, rs, co cons nsumer umer wou

• uld

ld save e >$ >$20 200 o 0 over er lif lifetime time of

• f th

the e four

• ur

bu bulbs. lbs.

Old 3-ways could become substitute for 60 and 100 W incand bulbs

Sales of these bulbs could easily

• explode. Web price under a $1!

Note, these are even less efficient than the old incandescent bulbs!

33

Drop-in LED Bulbs Already Available for Those that Want a 3- Way

34

60 Watt incandescent globe sales could skyrocket if exempted. Cost-effective LED replacement only uses 5.5 Watts

35

LED Replacements Already Exist for Various Light Outputs and Base Types from Lots of Different Manufacturers

36

Thank You UCSB – Dr Nakamura and Dr DenBaars!

Massive Growth in Air Conditioners Coming in Developing Countries

A/Cs due to grow from 1.2 billion to 4.5 billion units by 2050 Potential Impacts Staggering:

• 2,000 Gigawatts of New

Generation =

➢

Annual Electricity Usage by US, Japan and Germany combined

➢

>130 Gigatons of cumulative CO2 emissions by 2050

Need to Act Very SOON

Tighten stringency of current minimum efficiency standards and labels China in process of updating their regulations (fingers crossed). United for Efficiency (U4E project at United Nations Environment) working on model regulations for adoption for interested countries. INCLUDES limits for global warming potential (GWP) of refrigerant. RMI and others working on Global Cooling Prize to reduce climate impacts by 5X!

NRDC Work on Reducing Energy Waste from Consumer Electronics

40

The TV Ecosystem

➢ TVs ➢ Set top boxes ➢ Game Consoles ➢ DVD players ➢ Surround sound speakers

Top 3 in homes – TVs, computers, and STBs

Source: 2017 Fraunhofer Study for CTA

Tuning into TV Energy Use

➢ Flat panel TVs were showing up everywhere – no public data available (only UL rating) ➢ NRDC creatively measured TV energy via “Shrek Test” at Circuit City ➢ TVs use at least 1 %

• f all national

electricity use and growing.

TV Power Use Varies Dramatically

Fast Forward

• Digital TVs now have international test method

(needs to be updated) for measuring power use

• Labels exist for Energy Guide and ENERGY STAR
• California set first in nation efficiency standards in

2008 that cut TV energy use by >50%

• TVs no longer shipped in retail (torch mode), which

dramatically reduces TV on mode power use.

• TVs have super efficient LED backlights and many

have local area dimming

Need to Update Energy Use Test Method, Including HDR Clip

Which Content/Scenes You Pick Really Matters

(you’d get an artificially low and incorrect answer if you picked the scenes from minutes

143-45)

NRDC Field Measurements of STBs: almost no difference between on and standby power!

NRDC 2011 Study - $2 billion and 6 power plants worth of electricity used per year when “off”

NRDC Report Serves as Effective Call to Action: Two DVRs = A New Fridge!

STB Voluntary Agreement (VA)

STBs are unique, agreed to VA in lieu of regulations Key elements: ▪ 90% of new boxes purchased must meet energy allowances spelled out in VA ▪ Must post model-specific energy use data on websites ▪ Annual verification testing in 100 homes ▪ Managed by independent administrator and annual reports published ▪ NRDC and ACEEE serve on steering committee

Voluntary Agreements and Annual Reports:

https://www.energy-efficiency.us/ (note NRDC not participating in SNE agreement)

VA is helping drive down new STB energy use

National Set Top Box Energy Use Down 34% Since 2013

• Total savings:

$3.5 billion

• Total avoided

carbon emissions: 21 million tons CO2

New Upcoming NRDC Study : Smart Speaker and Streaming Devices (OTT)

Smart Speakers

• Google Home
• Google Home Mini
• Harmon Cardon Invoke
• Echo 2nd Gen Speaker
• Apple HomePod

OTT Set-top Boxes

• Amazon FireTV 4k
• Google Chromecast Ultra
• Roku 4
• Apple TV 4k

Xbox One

55

What happens to TV standby power use when you link a Smart Speaker to wake/operate it? TVs annual energy use could double

56