An Egyptian Exporter
Taher G. Gargour
Business Development FY 2005 results presentation March 2006
An Egyptian Exporter Taher G. Gargour Business Development FY 2005 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
An Egyptian Exporter Taher G. Gargour Business Development FY 2005 results presentation March 2006 Corporate Summary Introduction: An Egyptian exporter Lecico Egypt S.A.E. is a leading sanitary ware producer in the Middle East and a large
Business Development FY 2005 results presentation March 2006
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Introduction: An Egyptian exporter
Split of sanitary ware and tiles1 Split of domestic and export1
* All production facilities are controlled by Lecico
Alexandria Khorshid Borg El-Arab Cairo Established 1997 Phases 3&4 expected to be completed end 2006 Sanitary ware capacity 1.2 million pcs 2003 2.0 million pcs 2004 4.0 million pcs end 2007 Borg El-Arab Established 1975 Sanitary ware capacity 2.0 million pcs 2004 2.5 million pcs end 2005 Tiles capacity 9.7 million m2 2002 13.4 million m2 2003 17.0 million m2 2004 21.4 million m2 early 2007 Khorshid Established 1959 Sanitary ware capacity: 600,000 pcs 2004 Tiles capacity 1.1 million m2 2004 Kfarchima Kfarchima Beirut
the Middle East and a large tiles producer
by the Gargour family since 1969
European quality sanitary ware at Egyptian costs
Lecico’s sales going into Europe
will boost capacity to over 7m pieces of sanitary wary
largest sanitary ware producer in the world
type of tiles and location of plant under review
Note: (1) 31 December 2005
Egypt (41%) Lebanon (10%) Export (49%) Sanitary ware (60%) Tiles (40%)
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Investment case
Management and brand history
expatriate management
Regional leadership
sanitary ware in Egypt and
Growing exports
margin exports
Lebanon
Significant cost advantage
Strong historic growth record
26% Revenue CAGR (2000-2005) 30% Net Profit CAGR
Supplier for key European brands Aggressive expansion program
Tile capacity doubled and sanitary ware capacity grew 40% since 2000 Substantial further capacity expansion underway
Sanitec relationship Strong growth despite slowdown in key markets and drop in profitability in 2005
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Strong management & over 40 years brand history
Management team
Gilbert Gargour
Chairman and CEO
Colin Sykes
Group CFO
Mohamed Sorour
General Manager Factory Admin
Elie Baroudi
Managing Director Egypt
Georges Ghorayeb
Group Technical Director and Managing Director, Lebanon Factory Managers Elie Youssef (Sanitary) Nabil Nader (Tiles) Production Director B Dalgarno (Sanitary) Production Managers W Gestner (Khorshid) W Hourani (Borg) A Raimondi (Tiles) S Mancini (Fireclay) Legal Counsel S Hamouda Financial Controller M Hassan Financial Controller C A Khalil
1959 1967 1978 1983 1997 1999 2003 2007+
Lecico founded in Lebanon Tile production started Operations established in Egypt Sanitary ware production started Sanitec becomes indirect shareholder in Lecico via CHME Lecico enters into a sourcing agreement with Sanitec Sanitary ware production started in Lebanon Tile production started in Egypt Sanitary ware factory
Arab (Egypt) Borg El-Arab 2 completed Roll out of European Ceramics (Borg 3 & 4) and tile expansion
Senior management experience: average 16yrs with Lecico and 23yrs industry experience
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Domestic market leadership
12% 11% 9% 9% 8% 7% 6% 38% Lecico Cleopatra Gravena American Standard Aracemco Pharaohs Duravit National Ceramics
Market leadership in Egypt Market leadership in Lebanon
ware market share
sales volume CAGR (00-04)
expansion ongoing
share in sanitary ware
European quality
Sanitary ware market (4.5 million pieces)1 Tile market (80 million m2)1
18% 16% 10% 10% 22% 24% Cleopatra Pharaohs Lecico Al Amir Gemma Other
Sanitary ware market (0.5 million pieces)1
45% 55% Lecico Imports
Tile market (8.5 million m2)1
15% 55% 30% Uniceramic Lecico Imports
support sanitary ware sales through distributors
sales volume CAGR (00-04)
share in tile sales
to complement sanitary ware sales
Note: (1) Management estimates for 2004
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Growing exports
Growth in group’s exports
Lecico’s total export volumes (sanitary ware) Export breakdown (by volume)
Export focus on Europe
UK (39%) Sanitec (18%) France (16%) Other Europe (10%) Middle East (3%) South Africa (2%) Sy ria (2%) Saudi Arabia (2%) Other (8%)
South Africa1,229 1,240 1,431 1,982 2,389 2,267 46% 41% 42% 50% 56% 59% 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Pieces (000) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Exports/total Sanitary ware export volumes Percent of total volume
Europe as percentages of total exports Growth of Lecico brand sanitary ware market share in UK
1,009 1,133 1,622 1,998 1,819 81% 79% 82% 84% 80% 1,000 2,000 3,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Pieces (000) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Europe/exports European sales volumes Europe/total exports (%) 680 650 400 375 470 560 650 200 400 600 800 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Number of pieces sold (000 pcs) UK market share (%)
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Significant cost advantage
International cost advantage
Lecico produces sanitary ware at an all-in average cost of US$10.1 / piece
– In Egypt, manufacturing cost averages US$7.0 / piece of sanitary ware – The difference reflects lower production volumes in 2005, accessories added in Europe, depreciation and significantly higher industrial cost in Lebanon – Our information suggest other low cost producers manufacturing cost averages US$10-15 / piece – While European producers average US$25+ / piece depending on their market
Why is Lecico able to produce so cheaply?
– Egypt factors: Low energy costs, low labour cost, low investment costs, low effective taxes – Size factors: Economies of scale, standard global plant size: 1m pieces – Experience: Over 45 years as a company and almost 40 years as a sanitary ware producer
Investment, distribution and overheads benefit from regional economies of scale
– Sanitary ware investment cost approx US$12-15 / piece vs. US$20-30 / piece global standard – Low shipping cost to Europe: US$1 per sanitary ware piece vs approx US$5+ for Asian manufactures
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Sanitec and other business relationships
Knowledge transfer
Commercial
Sanitec and other brands
Expansion
Indirect equity stake
services to Lecico
CMS management agreement
EQT acquisition of Sanitec good news for Lecico: Continued Sanitec focus on outsourcing production likely
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Long-term sanitary ware growth strategy
− UK, Ireland
− France, South Africa Expand production capacity
Lower production costs while keeping European quality
Expand regional and international exports
expand in the Middle East
− Germany, Italy, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria
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2005: A challenging year
A confluence of negative events hurt performance in 2005
– Sanitary ware market size down 20-30% as part of overall slow down in consumer spending
– Impact on Lecico: Over 50% of Lecico exports go to UK market (direct and OEM combined). In addition to lower sales volumes as result of UK weakness, most new sales generated in markets with lower prices and margins than the UK
– Egyptian pound appreciated by 6.8% against the sterling and euro (2005 average vs. 2004 average)
– Impact on Lecico: Export prices, revenues and margins squeezed. FX losses incurred on cash and credit – Bad news: Exchange rates have worsened sharply in 4Q, Euro and Sterling down by c 16% year-on-year – Bad news: Approximately 70% of Lecico exports (35% of total sales) are in Euro or Sterling
– Political instability in Lebanon and inflationary pressure in Egypt depress local demand
– Impact on Lecico: Egyptian sanitary ware sales down 12% YTD, Lebanese sanitary ware sales down 15% YTD – Good news: Strong steel and cement consumption numbers in Egypt may be lead indicator of stronger demand growth – Good news: Market for tiles in both countries remains fairly buoyant on expanding usage
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Difficult environment likely to continue in 2006…
Exchange rate pressure and sluggish markets to continue in 2006
– Government cuts 2006 growth forecast by 50bps, brokers are forecasting record lows in real household consumption growth (Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch) – UK market for sanitary ware may come under further pressure in 2006 – 22% of Lecico sales (9m 2005) into the UK market (all Lecico-branded or OEM sanitary ware)
– Despite positive indicators in steel, cement and real estate sanitary ware demand has been weak in 2005 – While the hope is that these are lead indicators for our industry in 2006 and February and early March were relatively strong year-on-year, it is too early to call a recovery in the Egyptian market – 13% of Lecico sales value comes from Egyptian sanitary ware sales
– Euro and Sterling vs. Egyptian pound rates are down 20.5% and 13.2% respectively Y-o-Y in the fourth quarter – Assuming these rates hold, consolidated 2006 sales will likely be over 5% lower on price impact alone – Over 35% of Lecico sales is either Euro or Sterling denominated
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…but new sales efforts should still deliver growth
Lecico is aggressively pursuing new opportunities to return to growth
– Recently hired sales representatives for Germany and Latin Europe (France, Italy, Spain) to build/expand direct sales in those markets (first sales expected 2006) – Exploring new OEM partnerships for Europe and elsewhere – Setting up trading joint ventures with in Algeria, Syria and Saudi Arabia as regional distribution hubs (2006) – Goal to expand Middle Eastern and African presence with further possible trading JVs in Iraq and Nigeria (2007)
– New sets and image campaign in Egypt to raise profile and expand high-end sales (ongoing) – Creating unbranded special set to compete with dumped Chinese product in the UK (early 2006) – Exploring possibility of breaking into UK DIY market with unbranded new models (late 2006 or 2007) – Expanding DIY customer base in France (ongoing)
– Fine fire clay capacity to be increased from c60k pieces to 200-250k pieces (ongoing through 2007) – Expanding tile capacity by 4.4m sqm (or 24% capacity growth) over the coming 10-12 months (operational in 2007) – Completing roll-out of Borg 3 & 4 as needed for sales growth in sanitary ware (expected to be operational by mid-2007)
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Outlook for 2006
2006: Expected volume growth but continued FX and business mix pressure
– Initial indicators remain lacklustre for 2006, but entry into new markets, improved market penetration and a hoped-for recovery in Egypt should drive healthy (high single or low double digit) growth in sanitary ware volumes later in the year – Expansion of tile capacity towards the end of 2006 should see some volume-led growth towards the year-end
– Further 4Q 2005 strengthening of the EGP could (if the rates hold) reduce consolidated 2006 revenues by over 5% lower on price impact alone – Business mix will also be a factor with new export sales likely at below average prices and margins
– Double digit volume growth may translate into single digit revenue growth due to currency and business mix effects – Gross margins likely to be squeezed by currency and business mix effect – Operating expenses likely to grow given focus on expanding market share and penetrating new markets – Operating profit likely to be flat, or only marginally changed, despite strong volume growth – Net profit to benefit from lack of FX losses (compared to previous year) due to balance sheet hedging
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Profit and loss
Net sales Cost of sales breakdown (9m 2005)
Raw materials (38%) Other materials (16%) Energy (11%) Salaries and wages (12%) Depreciation (6%) Other costs (16%)
697 382 265 202 559 652 49.6% 44.1% 36.3% 39.1% 43.9% 49.2% 200 400 600 800 1,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 LE million 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Exports (%)
Net Profit (1) EBIT
140 188 72 47 31 108 21.4% 26.9% 19.2% 18.9% 17.9% 15.5% 50 100 150 200 250 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 LE million 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Margin (%) 136 44 28 16 84 89 19.5% 15.0% 11.6% 10.7% 7.9% 13.6% 50 100 150 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 LE million 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Margin (%)
(1) 2005 net profit reduced by LE 20.0 million FX revaluation loss
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Revenues shift of towards tiles and Middle East
Segmental sales breakdown (2004 vs. 2005) Sanitary ware export volumes by geography Sanitary ware sales volume by geography
2005 Sanitary ware (60%) Tile (40%) 2004 Sanitary ware (67%) Tile (33%) 2004 Europe (84%) Middle East (10%) Africa & other (7%) 2005 Egypt (36%) Lebanon (5%) Export (59%) 2005 Europe (80%) Middle East (11%) Africa & other (9%) 2004 Egypt (38%) Lebanon (6%) Export (56%)
Segmental gross profit (2004 vs. 2005) Tile sales volume by geography
2004 Egypt (83%) Lebanon (6%) Export (10%) 2004 Sanitary ware (78%) Tile (22%) 2005 Sanitary ware (68%) Tile (32%) 2005 Egypt (77%) Lebanon (5%) Export (18%)
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Margin growth switch from sanitary ware to tiles
Sanitary ware – sales volumes and revenue Sanitary ware – gross profit and margin Sanitary ware – selling price and cost per piece
389 469 369 249 178 149 3.9 4.3 4.0 3.4 2.7 2.4 100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Revenues (LE m) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Volumes (pcs m) Net sales revenue Total sales volume 164 234 168 110 83 63 42% 50% 46% 44% 46% 42% 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Gross profit (LE m) 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Gross margin (%) Gross profit Gross margin (%) 101 110 93 74 65 62 58 55 51 41 35 36 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 LE per piece Av price/piece Av cost/piece
Tiles – sales volumes and revenues Tiles – selling price and cost per sqm Tiles – gross profit and margin
6 18 39 54 66 78 11% 21% 30% 28% 29% 30% 20 40 60 80 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Gross profit (LE m) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Gross margin (%) Gross profit Gross margin (%) 228 191 133 87 52 263 15.3 14.6 10.8 9.2 4.8 17.7 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Revenues (LE m) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Volumes (sqm m) Net sales revenue Total sales volume 15 15 13 12 9 11 10 11 9 9 8 10 5 10 15 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 LE per sqm Av price/sqm Av cost/sqm
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Balance sheet and cash flow
Working capital
242 209 192 217 266 204 110 78 96 129 208 216 99 126 103 99 126 98 159 73 105 99 226 271 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Days Inventory days (Inventory/cost of sales) Receivables days (Receivables/net sales) Payables days (Payables/Cost of sales) Net working capital days
Returns and leverage Capital expenditures Project Investment cost (LE m) 2006 2007 Khorshid frit plant 5.0 3.5 Fire Clay capacity expansion 28.5 0.0 Tile expansion and upgrade plans 27.0 13.0 Borg El-Arab 3 & 4 11.5 35.5 General maintenance work 30.0 30.0 Total planned specific project capex 102.0 82.0
*2005 numbers annualized with 1Q FX loss added back 14% 20% 26% 18% 13% 9% 14% 26% 19% 15% 11% 9% 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Return on equity ROIC Net debt/equity
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Summary financials (1)
Sanitary ware segmental analysis % % (LE m) 2005 2004 05/04 2005 2004 05/04 Sanitary ware volumes (000 pcs) Egypt (000 pcs) 284 351 81% 1,383 1,600 86% Lebanon (000 pcs) 55 90 60% 211 276 77% Export (000 pcs) 542 556 97% 2,267 2,389 95% Total sanitary ware volumes (000 pcs) 880 997 88% 3,861 4,265 91% Exports/total sales volume (%) 61.5% 55.8% 5.7% 58.7% 56.0% 2.7% Sanitary ware revenue 85.7 120.1 71% 389.0 469.0 83% Average selling price (LE/pc) 97 120 81% 101 110 92% Average cost per piece (LE/pc) 60 61 99% 58 55 106% Sanitary ware cost of sales (52.9) (60.5) 88% (224.7) (234.6) 96% Sanitary ware gross profit 32.8 59.6 55% 164.3 234.4 70% Sanitary ware gross profit margin (%) 38.2% 49.6% (11.4%) 42.2% 50.0% (7.7%) Tile segmental analysis % % (LE m) 2005 2004 05/04 2005 2004 05/04 Tile volumes (000 sqm) Egypt (000 sqm) 3,390 3,190 106% 13,595 12,788 106% Lebanon (000 sqm) 193 213 91% 948 962 99% Export (000 sqm) 843 405 208% 3,155 1,584 199% Total tile volumes (000 sqm) 4,427 3,807 116% 17,698 15,334 115% Exports/total sales volume (%) 19.0% 10.6% 8.4% 17.8% 10.3% 7.5% Tile revenue 65.9 60.7 109% 263.4 227.8 116% Average selling price (LE/sqm) 15 16 93% 15 15 100% Average cost per sqm (LE/sqm) 11 12 90% 10 11 99% Tile cost of sales (47.5) (45.6) 104% (185.3) (162.1) 114% Tile gross profit 18.4 15.1 122% 78.1 65.7 119% Tile gross profit margin (%) 27.9% 24.9% 3.0% 29.6% 28.9% 0.8% 4Q FY 4Q FY
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Summary financials (2)
Income statement % % (LE m) 2005 2004 05/04 2005 2004 05/04 Net sales 151.7 180.8 84% 652.4 696.8 94% Cost of sales (100.5) (106.0) 95% (410.0) (396.7) 103% Gross profit 51.2 74.7 69% 242.4 300.1 81% Gross margin (%) 33.8% 41.3% (7.6%) 37.2% 43.1% (5.9%) Distribution expenses (10.6) (18.5) 57% (44.4) (50.2) 88% Administrative expenses (16.1) (14.0) 115% (62.4) (63.6) 98% Other Operating income 0.6 6.8 9% 4.3 10.7 40% Other Operating expenses 0.1 (9.2)
(9.4) 2% Operating profit (EBIT) 25.2 39.8 63% 139.6 187.6 74% Operating (EBIT) margin (%) 16.6% 22.0% (5.4%) 21.4% 26.9% (5.5%) Investment revenues 0.0 (0.3)
0.3
investment 0.1 0.1
0.3
5.3 1.5 361% 16.0 4.0 398% Financing expenses (7.5) (11.3) 66% (32.5) (39.2) 83% Foreign currencies exchange differences (2.5) 0.3
1.7
(7.1) (7.3) (7.1) (7.3) 97% Profits before tax and minority (PBTM) 13.5 22.8 59% 95.9 147.4 65% PBTM margin (%) 8.9% 12.6% (3.7%) 14.7% 21.2% (6.5%) Income tax 0.8 1.0 72% (3.5) (10.9) 33% Deferred tax (3.5) 0.0
0.0
10.7 23.8 45% 88.9 136.5 65% Minority interest 0.4 4.8 9% (0.1) (0.4) 16% Net Profit 11.2 28.6 39% 88.8 136.1 65% Net profit margin (%) 7.4% 15.8% (8.5%) 13.6% 19.5% (5.9%) 4Q FY
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Summary financials (3)
31-Dec-05 31-Dec-04 9m 05/FY04 (%) Banks overdraft 416.8 113.4 368% Current portion of long-term liabilities 28.1 29.2 96% Trade and notes payable 55.6 62.4 89% Other current payable 56.1 75.0 75% Related parties - credit balances 9.1 11.5 79% Provisions 7.4 7.4 100% Total current liabilities 573.0 298.8 192% Long-term loans 49.1 83.3 59% Other long-term liabilities 11.6 13.9 83% Provisions 6.3 7.1
3.5 0.0
70.5 104.3 68% Total liabilities 643.5 403.1 160% Minority interest 5.2 5.2 99% Issued capital 100.0 100.0 100% Treasury stock (3.7) 0.0
368.1 372.3 99% Retained earnings 162.7 82.8 197% Net profit for the period 88.8 136.1 65% Total equity 716.0 691.3 104% Total equity, minorities and liabilities 1,364.7 1,099.6 124% Balance Sheet (LE m) 31-Dec-05 31-Dec-04 9m 05/FY04 (%) Cash, equivalents and short-term investments 319.4 264.2 121% Current investment 0.0 0.0
271.4 226.8 120% Receivables 197.3 149.0 132% Related parties -debit balances 30.2 42.8 71% Total current assets 818.3 682.8 120% Net fixed assets 409.2 338.8 121% Intangible assets 16.1 16.0 100% Prepaid long-term rent 0.7 0.8 86% Projects in progress 112.7 53.3 212% Available for sale investments 5.5 4.7 117% Long-term notes receivable 2.1 3.2 66% Total non-current assets 546.3 416.7 131% Total assets 1,364.7 1,099.6 124%
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Share structure and history
– Trading history: GDR trades an average of US$ 0.20 million in trading a day and trades on 40% of market trading days (Feb 2005-Feb 2006) – Lack of local liquidity and difficult operating year have led to shrinking liquidity – Lecico hopes to address this by improving local liquidity in late 2006 – Share multiples: Lecico now trades on 2005 multiples of: – 12.9x PER, 5.2% Div Yield, 1.6x P/B and 7.3x EV/EBITDA – Vs. Egypt market: 15.8x 05 PER (13.4x06) and 9.6x 05 EV/EBITDA (7.8x 05)
– Market figures based on EFG-Hermes Egyptian coverage universe as of 16/03/06 Shareholding structure
Sanitec 15% GDR float 43% Local float 9% Intage / Gargour 32%
Share liquidity overview (GDR) Share liquidity overview (Local) GDR and Local share price
100 200 300 400 500 600 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Av daily value (USD 000) Days traded (%) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Av daily value (USD 000) Days traded (%) 5 10 15 20 25 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 GDR price Local price