All models are wrong, but some are useful George Box London open - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶

Dec 31, 2022 395 likes •632 views

All models are wrong, but some are useful George Box London open spaces expenditure and income 2008 to 2019 Presented by Occams Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd To find verifiable, publicly available data

SLIDE 1

“All models are wrong, but some are useful” George Box

London open spaces expenditure and income 2008 to 2019 Presented by Occam’s Razor Consulting Ltd

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 2

Purpose of the exercise

To find verifiable, publicly available data instead of rumour and anecdote To collect and process data in a repeatable way To present data in a way that allows comparisons to be made To assist the creation of meaningful performance indicators

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 3

Where are the data from?

Base data - annual returns to the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government Inflation data - H M Treasury Population data – Office for National Statistics Area managed by each authority – Ordnance Survey

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 4

Base data

Local authorities report income and expenditure data for all activities Information is categorized into broad activity areas, e.g. Housing, Culture Within each broad category there are more specific sections, e.g. Waste management, Cemeteries, Open spaces, Golf courses

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 5

More detail

MHCLG publishes guidance to assist authorities Expenditure is sub-divided into employee costs and running costs Income is sub-divided into fees and charges and other income The difference between total expenditure and total income represents the net expenditure on the service

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 6

An example

All values are in £ 000s
These figures have been adjusted for

inflation

Year 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Employee costs £ 807 £ 836 £ 668 £ 693 £ 689 £ 357 £ 404 £ 493 £ 539 £ 953 £ 1,126 Running expenses £ 3,629 £ 3,897 £ 3,751 £ 3,984 £ 4,086 £ 4,231 £ 4,600 £ 4,311 £ 4,475 £ 3,601 £ 4,121 Fees and charges £ (334) £ (312) £ (887) £ (824) £ (850) £ (663) £ (674) £ (563) £ (508) £ (292) £ (830) Other income £ (1,020) £ (1,073) £ (72) £ (619) £ (473) £ (352) £ (638) £ (513) £ (169) £ (735) £ (25) Net expenditure £ 3,083 £ 3,348 £ 3,459 £ 3,234 £ 3,452 £ 3,572 £ 3,692 £ 3,728 £ 4,337 £ 3,527 £ 4,392 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 7

The same data represented as a chart

£(2,000) £(1,000) £- £1,000 £2,000 £3,000 £4,000 £5,000 £6,000

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Expenditure and income (£ 000s)

Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 8

Some charts tell a different story…

£(4,000) £(2,000) £- £2,000 £4,000 £6,000 £8,000 £10,000 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Expenditure and income (£ 000s)

Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 9

04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Four highest and four lowest total expenditure - maintenance

f open spaces 2018-19

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Annual expenditure £2,252,000 - £2,511,000 £7,100,000 - £9,987,000 £2,511,000 - £7,100,000 Annual expenditure £2,252,000 - £2,511,000 £7,100,000 - £9,987,000 £2,511,000 - £7,100,000

SLIDE 10

Financial data can be related to the area managed by each authority

Areas managed are challenging to calculate Ordnance Survey has released a map of Great Britain showing Greenspace Greenspace is categorized as Public park or garden, golf courses, religious grounds etc. We have created an algorithm to create a usable proxy for the area managed by councils

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 11

Financial information related to area of one authority

£(10,000) £(5,000) £- £5,000 £10,000 £15,000 £20,000 £25,000 £30,000 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Open spaces income and expenditure per hectare

Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure £15,000

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 12

04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Four highest and four lowest expenditure per hectare - maintenance of open spaces 2018-19

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Expenditure per hectare £2,213 - £6,599 £54,542 - £88,079 £6,599 - £54,542 Expenditure per hectare £2,213 - £6,599 £54,542 - £88,079 £6,599 - £54,542

SLIDE 13

Financial data can also be related to population data

Annual estimates of population for each borough are readily available from ONS Almost all authorities have seen population increase between 2008 and 2019 Estimated numbers for London have increased by 16% over that time Charts incorporate population changes for each year

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 14

Here is one of the few authorities to see population fall

£(10.00) £(5.00) £- £5.00 £10.00 £15.00 £20.00 £25.00 £30.00 £35.00 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Open spaces expenditure and income per head

Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure £20 line

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 15

Population in this authority has increased by 30% between 2008 and 2019

£(10.00) £(5.00) £- £5.00 £10.00 £15.00 £20.00 £25.00 £30.00 £35.00 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Expenditure and income per head

Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure £20 line

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 16

04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Four highest and four lowest expenditure per head - maintenance of open spaces 2018-19

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Expenditure per head £6.91 - £10.00 £26.16 - £281.00 £10.00 - £26.16 Expenditure per head £6.91 - £10.00 £26.16 - £281.00 £10.00 - £26.16

SLIDE 17

Summarizing and aggregating

Aggregating and averaging conceal as well as clarify There do seem to be some identifiable trends The net cost across London appears to be reducing in line with overall expenditure Employee costs appear to be fairly stable

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 18

Expenditure and income for 33 London authorities, GLA and LVRPA (£ 000s)

04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

£(100,000) £(50,000) £- £50,000 £100,000 £150,000 £200,000 £250,000 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Open spaces expenditure and income in £ 000s – London including GLA and LVRPA

Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure

SLIDE 19

Expenditure and income per head for 33 London authorities, GLA and LVRPA (£ 000s)

04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

£(10.00) £(5.00) £- £5.00 £10.00 £15.00 £20.00 £25.00 £30.00 £35.00 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Open spaces expenditure and income per head all London inc. GLA and LVRPA

Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure £20 line

SLIDE 20

What conclusions can we draw?

In most cases data appears to be collected and presented consistently Consistency is more evident over time than necessarily across different councils Comparisons between authorities should be made with care

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 21

What happened

ver the last

decade?

Most authorities have seen reductions in expenditure since 2008/9 – the hardest hit quartile by 50% over that time 6 authorities saw an increase over the last decade Over the same time period London councils saw an average reduction of 23%

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 22

What happened

ver the last

three years?

Most authorities have seen reductions in expenditure over the last three years – the hardest hit quartile by 32% over that time 9 authorities saw no reduction or an increase over the last three years Over the same time period London councils saw an average reduction of 13%

Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020

SLIDE 23

That concludes the presentation

Thank you for your attention
This presentation with notes will be made available through Parks for

London.

Three spreadsheets of data will be available from Occam’s Razor, total

income and expenditure from 2008/9 to 2018/19, the same data related to area managed and expenditure per head.

For further details info@orcl.co.uk

04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd