All models are wrong, but some are useful George Box London open - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

“All models are wrong, but some are useful” George Box London open spaces expenditure and income 2008 to 2019 Presented by Occam’s Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

To find verifiable, publicly available data instead of rumour and anecdote To collect and process data in a repeatable way Purpose of the exercise To present data in a way that allows comparisons to be made To assist the creation of meaningful performance indicators 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Base data - annual returns to the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government Where are Inflation data - H M Treasury the data from? Population data – Office for National Statistics Area managed by each authority – Ordnance Survey 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Local authorities report income and expenditure data for all activities Information is categorized into broad Base data activity areas, e.g. Housing, Culture Within each broad category there are more specific sections, e.g. Waste management, Cemeteries, Open spaces, Golf courses 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

MHCLG publishes guidance to assist authorities Expenditure is sub-divided into employee costs and running costs More detail Income is sub-divided into fees and charges and other income The difference between total expenditure and total income represents the net expenditure on the service 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Year 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Employee costs £ 807 £ 836 £ 668 £ 693 £ 689 £ 357 £ 404 £ 493 £ 539 £ 953 £ 1,126 Running expenses £ 3,629 £ 3,897 £ 3,751 £ 3,984 £ 4,086 £ 4,231 £ 4,600 £ 4,311 £ 4,475 £ 3,601 £ 4,121 Fees and charges £ (334) £ (312) £ (887) £ (824) £ (850) £ (663) £ (674) £ (563) £ (508) £ (292) £ (830) Other income £ (1,020) £ (1,073) £ (72) £ (619) £ (473) £ (352) £ (638) £ (513) £ (169) £ (735) £ (25) Net expenditure £ 3,083 £ 3,348 £ 3,459 £ 3,234 £ 3,452 £ 3,572 £ 3,692 £ 3,728 £ 4,337 £ 3,527 £ 4,392 An example • All values are in £ 000s • These figures have been adjusted for inflation 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

The same data represented as a chart Expenditure and income (£ 000s) £6,000 £5,000 £4,000 £3,000 £2,000 £1,000 £- 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 £(1,000) £(2,000) Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Some charts tell a different story… Expenditure and income (£ 000s) £10,000 £8,000 £6,000 £4,000 £2,000 £- 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 £(2,000) £(4,000) Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Four highest and four lowest total expenditure - maintenance of open spaces 2018-19 Annual expenditure Annual expenditure £2,252,000 - £2,511,000 £2,252,000 - £2,511,000 £7,100,000 - £9,987,000 £7,100,000 - £9,987,000 £2,511,000 - £7,100,000 £2,511,000 - £7,100,000 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Financial Areas managed are challenging to calculate data can be Ordnance Survey has released a map of Great related to Britain showing Greenspace the area Greenspace is categorized as Public park or managed by garden, golf courses, religious grounds etc. each We have created an algorithm to create a authority usable proxy for the area managed by councils 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Financial information related to area of one authority Open spaces income and expenditure per hectare £30,000 £25,000 £20,000 £15,000 £10,000 £5,000 £- 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 £(5,000) £(10,000) Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure £15,000 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Four highest and four lowest expenditure per hectare - maintenance of open spaces 2018-19 Expenditure per hectare Expenditure per hectare £2,213 - £6,599 £2,213 - £6,599 £54,542 - £88,079 £54,542 - £88,079 £6,599 - £54,542 £6,599 - £54,542 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Annual estimates of population for each borough are readily available from ONS Financial data can Almost all authorities have seen population increase between 2008 and 2019 also be related to Estimated numbers for London have population increased by 16% over that time data Charts incorporate population changes for each year 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Here is one of the few authorities to see population fall Open spaces expenditure and income per head £35.00 £30.00 £25.00 £20.00 £15.00 £10.00 £5.00 £- 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 £(5.00) £(10.00) Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure £20 line 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Population in this authority has increased by 30% between 2008 and 2019 Expenditure and income per head £35.00 £30.00 £25.00 £20.00 £15.00 £10.00 £5.00 £- 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 £(5.00) £(10.00) Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure £20 line 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Four highest and four lowest expenditure per head - maintenance of open spaces 2018-19 Expenditure per head Expenditure per head £6.91 - £10.00 £6.91 - £10.00 £26.16 - £281.00 £26.16 - £281.00 £10.00 - £26.16 £10.00 - £26.16 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Aggregating and averaging conceal as well as clarify There do seem to be some identifiable trends Summarizing and aggregating The net cost across London appears to be reducing in line with overall expenditure Employee costs appear to be fairly stable 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Expenditure and income for 33 London authorities, GLA and LVRPA (£ 000s) Open spaces expenditure and income in £ 000s – London including GLA and LVRPA £250,000 £200,000 £150,000 £100,000 £50,000 £- 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 £(50,000) £(100,000) Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Expenditure and income per head for 33 London authorities, GLA and LVRPA (£ 000s) Open spaces expenditure and income per head all London inc. GLA and LVRPA £35.00 £30.00 £25.00 £20.00 £15.00 £10.00 £5.00 £- 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 £(5.00) £(10.00) Employee costs Running expenses Fees and charges Other income Net expenditure £20 line 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

In most cases data appears to be collected and presented consistently What conclusions Consistency is more evident over time can we than necessarily across different councils draw? Comparisons between authorities should be made with care 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Most authorities have seen reductions in expenditure since 2008/9 – the hardest hit quartile by 50% over that time What happened 6 authorities saw an increase over the over the last last decade decade? Over the same time period London councils saw an average reduction of 23% 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

Most authorities have seen reductions in expenditure over the last three years – the hardest hit quartile by 32% over that time What happened 9 authorities saw no reduction or an over the last increase over the last three years three years? Over the same time period London councils saw an average reduction of 13% 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd

That concludes the presentation • Thank you for your attention • This presentation with notes will be made available through Parks for London. • Three spreadsheets of data will be available from Occam’s Razor, total income and expenditure from 2008/9 to 2018/19, the same data related to area managed and expenditure per head. • For further details info@orcl.co.uk 04/05/2020 Occam's Razor Consulting Ltd