[PPT] - Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Alex Deckmyn, Annelies Duerinckx, PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium

Alex Deckmyn, Annelies Duerinckx, Daan Degrauwe, Geert Smet, Julie Berckmans, Lesley De Cruz, Luc Gerard, Michiel Vanginderachter, Olivier Giot, Piet Termonia, Pieter De Meutter, Rafiq Hamdi, Rozemien De Troch, Steven Caluwaerts

ALADIN Forecasters meeting 2014 September 10-11, 2014, Ankara, Turkey

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium 1 / 21

SLIDE 2

Outline

How Alaro is used Pukkelpop storm Pentecost storms CAPE

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Introduction 2 / 21

SLIDE 3

How Alaro is used in Belgium

Where we are now Alaro at 7 and 4 km with 46 vertical levels Coupled to Arp` ege Four runs/day: 00h, 06h, 12h, 18h Since 17 July: switch to cy38

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Alaro used in Belgium 3 / 21

SLIDE 4

How Alaro is used in Belgium

cy38 scores

Forecast time since 0000 UTC

2m Rel. Hum. (%)

BIAS−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel

cy38 ald_op

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 10 Forecast time since 0000 UTC

RMSE−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 −4 4

Forecast time since 0000 UTC

2m Temp. (°C)

BIAS−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel

cy38 ald_op

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 −1.5 0.5 Forecast time since 0000 UTC

RMSE−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 −1.0 0.5

Forecast time since 0000 UTC

30m Wind Speed (m/s)

BIAS−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel

cy38 ald_op

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 −0.5 1.5 Forecast time since 0000 UTC

RMSE−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 −0.4 0.2

Forecast time since 0000 UTC

30m Wind Dir. (degrees)

BIAS−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel

cy38 ald_op

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 −60 20 Forecast time since 0000 UTC

RMSE−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 −60 20

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Alaro used in Belgium 4 / 21

SLIDE 5

How Alaro is used in Belgium

cy38 scores

−1.0

−0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 S A

ALO4 ald_op_cy35 SA score for August 2011

−1.0

−0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 S A

ALO4 cy38_esuite SA score for August 2011

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Alaro used in Belgium 5 / 21

SLIDE 6

How Alaro is used in Belgium

Where we are now Alaro at 7 and 4 km with 46 vertical levels Coupled to Arp` ege Four runs/day: 00h, 06h, 12h, 18h Since 17 July: switch to cy38 Next steps Unsaturated downdrafts Data assimilation

1 Conventional data

2 Radar

3 GNSS (GPS data)

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Alaro used in Belgium 6 / 21

SLIDE 7

Pukkelpop storm

Introduction

H L

5 6 4 5 6 4 564 576 576 576 5 8 8 5 8 8 588

40°N

ECMWF 500 hPa analysis 18 August 2011 1200 UTC Spanish plume Path of downburst (from “het belang van Limburg”) Bow echo with bookend vortex

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pukkelpop storm 7 / 21

SLIDE 8

Unsaturated downdrafts

Predicting the unpredictable

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10

ald_op Omega_DD mass flux (kg m...² s...¹) 18.08.2011 17 UTC

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5

cy36o7_tll Omega_DD mass flux (kg m...² s...¹) 18.08.2011 17 UTC

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 5 5 5 5 10 1 1 1 20 2 20

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pukkelpop storm 8 / 21

SLIDE 9

9 June 2014

Introduction Airmass 1800 UTC 9 June 2014 (from Meteosat)

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 9 / 21

SLIDE 10

9 June 2014

3h Accumulated Precipitation (Alaro)

0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +3h

max= 6.9, mean= 0.02 SURF t+0003 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +6h

max= 5.5, mean= 0.04 SURF t+0006 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 3 to 6 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +9h

max= 3.4, mean= 0.04 SURF t+0009 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 6 to 9 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +12h

max= 6.0, mean= 0.09 SURF t+0012 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 9 to 12 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +15h

max=16.0, mean= 0.10 SURF t+0015 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 12 to 15 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +18h

max= 9.3, mean= 0.07 SURF t+0018 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 15 to 18 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +21h

max=45.9, mean= 0.31 SURF t+0021 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 18 to 21 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +24h

max=33.3, mean= 0.65 SURF t+0024 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 21 to 24

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 10 / 21

SLIDE 11

9 June 2014

MCC

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 11 / 21

SLIDE 12

9 June 2014

MCC

Mesoscale Discussion Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 20:00 to Mon 09 Jun 2014 23:00 UTC Issued: Mon 09 Jun 2014 20:02 Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER / PUCIK An ongoing bow echo with a history of producing extreme severe wind gusts (>32 m/s) and likely an embedded supercell structure continues to move NEward across W Germany. 10-15 m/s low-level shear ahead of the system and low LCL heights suggest that the system will continue to harbour a risk of embedded - possibly strong - tornadoes in addition to the severe wind threat. The system will likely continue for at least several hours as the airmass ahead remains very unstable per sfc

bs and NWP guidance.
P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 12 / 21

SLIDE 13

9 June 2014

No convection?

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 3000 5000

CAPE (J/kg) 1400 UTC

15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45

1 9 19 19 19 19 21 21 2 1 21 21 21 23 23 2 3 2 5 25 25 27 27 27 27 2 7 29 2 9 29 2 9 29 29 31 31 31 3 1 31 31 3 1 3 1 31 33 33 33 33 33 3 5 35 3 5 35 3 5 35 3 7 37 3 9 3 9

Total precipitable water content (mm) 1400 UTC

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 13 / 21

SLIDE 14

9 June 2014

No convection?

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1 1 1 1 1 1 5

Sub-grid scale updraft mass flux 1400 UTC

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 5

Mesh fraction sub-grid scale updraft 1400 UTC

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 14 / 21

SLIDE 15

9 June 2014

MCC

0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +3h

max= 6.2, mean= 0.01 SURF t+0003 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +6h

max= 4.1, mean= 0.04 SURF t+0006 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 3 to 6 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +9h

max= 2.2, mean= 0.04 SURF t+0009 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 6 to 9 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +12h

max= 5.9, mean= 0.09 SURF t+0012 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 9 to 12 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +15h

max=26.8, mean= 0.15 SURF t+0015 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 12 to 15 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +18h

max=26.0, mean= 0.27 SURF t+0018 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 15 to 18 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +21h

max=25.5, mean= 0.46 SURF t+0021 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 18 to 21 0.1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 50 75 100 150 200

be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +24h

max=31.5, mean= 0.56 SURF t+0024 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 21 to 24

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 15 / 21

SLIDE 16

Challenges

Risk of thunderstorms

None will initiate
Thunderstorms will initiate

with following properties (rain rate, gusts, ...) Large scale Alaro

1 2

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 16 / 21

SLIDE 17

CAPE

CAPE values too high in Alaro? Alaro CAPE forecast (left) vs ECMWF CAPE forecast (right)

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium CAPE 17 / 21

SLIDE 18

Namelist changes for test 9 June 2014

LCVGQD=.T. RMULACVG=15 instead of -25 LVERTFE=.F. NVSCH=0 instead of 3 LAPRXPK=.F. GCVALFA=0.3E-4 instead of 0.45E-4

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Additional Slides 18 / 21

SLIDE 19

Data Assimilation

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Additional Slides 19 / 21

SLIDE 20

Pukkelpop

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 5,5 6

Downdraft mass flux 18 August 2011

fc1 fc4 fc4_tun time (UTC) mass flux (kg/(m² s)) 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 5,5 6

Downdraft mass flux 8 August 2011

fc1 fc4 fc4_tun time (UTC) mass flux (kg/(m² s)) 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 5,5 6

Downdraft mass flux 14 July 2010

fc1 fc4 fc4_tun time (UTC) mass flux (kg/(m² s))

P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Additional Slides 20 / 21

SLIDE 21

9 June 2014

3h Accumulated Precipitation (Radar)

RADAR 20140609

prec. 00h - 03h

RADAR 20140609

prec. 03h - 06h

RADAR 20140609

prec. 06h - 09h

1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 RADAR 20140609

prec. 09h - 12h

RADAR 20140609

prec. 12h - 15h

RADAR 20140609

prec. 15h - 18h

RADAR 20140609

prec. 18h - 21h

1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 RADAR 20140609

prec. 21h - 24h
P. De Meutter (RMI)

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Additional Slides 21 / 21