Aiymgul Kerimray, Rocco De Miglio, Aidyn Bakdolotov, Igor Kolyagin, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

National Laboratory Astana TIMES-Kazakhstan: from a national to a regional analysis and modelling Aiymgul Kerimray, Rocco De Miglio, Aidyn Bakdolotov, Igor Kolyagin, Bakytzhan Suleimenov, Yerbol Akhmetbekov June 1st 2015 ETSAP Workshop Abu Dhabi, Dusit Thani Hotel

ENERGY BALANCE OF KAZAKHSTAN IN 2012 TFC/TPES = 55% High energy industry own use and losses High exports IEA (2013)

GDP ENERGY INTENSITY OF KAZAKHSTAN • Kazakhstan takes 11 th place in the world with its GDP energy intensity • There are some differences in IEA and NU assessments (8-15%) GDP energy intensity in 2011 GDP Energy intensity over 2007- 2012 1.4 1.2 toe/1000 $2005USD 1.2 1 1 toe/1000$2005USD 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 NURIS 0.4 0.2 IEA 0.4 0 0.2 0 Kazakhstan IEA Kazakhstan-NURIS

REASONS FOR INEFFICIENCIES Geographical: the continental climate, large TFC/TPES (2012) territory, low population density 6 people/sq.m. 0.83 0.9 0.8 0.70 0.71 0.68 0.67 and uneven distribution of power generating 0.7 0.61 0.60 0.56 0.6 capacities over the territory 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Administrative and economic: lack of 0.1 0.0 metering for energy saving, low profitability Technical: high wear of the equipment in the energy intensive sectors, high wear of electric lines, dilapidation of the housing stock • Low efficiencies of power plants, almost 50 % of generating capacities has run for more than 30 years • Huge transmission (5%) and distribution (13%) losses of electricity • Up to 35% of losses of heat in distribution

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY Total primary energy supply over 2007-2012, ktoe (NU) 40000 35000 30000 2007 25000 2008 20000 2009 15000 2010 10000 2011 5000 2012 0 Coal &peat Crude oil Natural gas RES&Nuclear Oil products -5000 -10000

ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTORS Energy consumption by sectors, 2007-2012, ktoe (NU) 14000 2007 12000 2008 2009 10000 2010 8000 2011 6000 2012 4000 2000 0 Industry Transport Residential Other Non-energy use

GHG EMISSIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN GHG emissions historical dynamics, 1990-2012 400000 350000 300000 250000 kt CO2 eq. 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 -50000 Fuel combustion Industrial processes Agriculture LULUCF Waste

TIMES-KAZAKHSTAN MODEL Developed since 2011 under the project funded by Ministry of Education and Science of RoK GOAL: to explore the evolution of the system in the long-term, to design and test national energy-environmental related policies and strategy Collaboration: ASATREM, E4SMA Geographical boundaries: national (monoregional) Time horizon: 2009-2050 System boundaries: the entire energy system (from the upstream to the demand) Additional modules and features: • Own-price elasticities for the end-use demands • Endogenous retirement profiles of the power plants • Domestic and/or International ETS • LULUCF and industrial processes emissions (III-VI National Communication UNFCCC) • Scenarios considered:  GHG reduction potential  Energy efficiency improvement potential  Impact of ETS

DRIVERS OF THE MODEL • The population is assumed to grow at 1.25%pa • GDP was expected to rise at an annual rate of 6%pa until 2020, and 5%pa until 2030: IMF projections in 2013)

MODELING RESULTS – ENERGY EFFICIENCY Two scenarios were : • reducing energy intensity of GDP by 40% by 2020 (compared to the 2008 level) as set in the Energy Saving-2020 programme • introducing an incentive of US$20 (at 2000 prices) per ton of CO 2 equivalent reduced starting from 2020 (CO 2 TAX). The efficiency gaps (EFF(ET)j <= EFF(NTi )j) between an existing “reference” technology (ET) and the new ones (NTi) available for the same energy sector/service (j), as well as the “virtual” savings due to the use of more efficient technologies (Q(NTi)j).

MODELING RESULTS – ENERGY EFFICIENCY Energy Efficiency Improvements (EEI) in different part of Energy System and CO2 emissions 50 600 40 CO2 emissions in Mt 400 Mtoe 30 20 200 10 0 0 2009 202020252030 202020252030 202020252030 BaU Energy intensity CO2TAX reduction target Coal Transformation 220 kV - transmission 500 kV - transmission ELC - End-use ELC - distribution ELC - after meters NGA - End-use NGA - transformation NGA - distribution grids NGA - transport Heat - distribution Heat - transport Oil - End-use TOTCO2

MODELING RESULTS – ENERGY EFFICIENCY Dynamics of TPES, Electricity and Heat Consumption of Kazakhstan Coal Oil Natural gas Renewables Electricity Electric District heat 140 25 120 Primary Energy (Mtoe) 20 Consumption (Mtoe) 100 15 80 60 10 40 5 20 0 0 2009 202020252030 202020252030 202020252030 BaU Energy intensity CO2TAX reduction target

MODELING RESULTS – ENERGY EFFICIENCY

KAZAKHSTAN’S 16 REGIONS TIMES MODEL Kazakhstan has a large territory of 2.7 mln km 2 (9 th place in the world ) 3000 km from west to east and 1700 km from south to north Geographical boundaries: 14 regions and 2 cities: Astana (capital) and Almaty (financial center) Time horizon: 2011-2050 System boundaries: the energy system GOAL: to explore the potentials and the need of the different oblasts, the synergies across the regions (energy exchanges), and to assess the energy related investment location decisions. State of development: early stage (electricity and heat chains are described) 14/19

MAP OF PIPELINES IN KAZAKHSTAN

AVERAGE YEAR TEMPERATURE IN KAZAKHSTAN, ˚C Heating season varies from 143 to 231 days from region to region Average year temperature varies from 2ºС in the north to 13ºС in the south

FUEL-ENERGY BALANCE – REGIONS LEVEL (ASTANA CITY E.G.) • Combustible 48 FEBs for 16 Astana city 2011 (ktoe) Coal Crude Oil Oil Products Renewables & Electricity Heat Total Waste regions were Production - - - - - - - Imports 1,179.45 1,016.89 2,839.87 - 380.25 - 5,416.46 reclassified (2010- Exports -12.55 -1,018.94 -2,532.07 - -278.51 - -3,842.07 International marine bunkers - - - - - - - 2012) to IEA format International aviation bunkers - - - - - - - Stock changes 5.55 1.14 104.70 0.04 - - 111.41 Total primary energy supply 1,172.45 -0.91 412.50 0.04 101.73 - 1,685.81 Transfers 12.80 - -17.39 - - - -4.59 • Different data Statistical differences -0.17 0.92 -1.33 0.08 0.03 -0.04 -0.51 Main activity producer electricity plants - - - - - - - Autoproducer electricity plants - - - - - - - sources Main activity producer CHP plants -1,039.44 - - - 204.26 464.78 -370.40 Autoproducer CHP plants - - -0.06 - - - -0.06 Main activity producer heat plants -71.04 - - - - 45.60 -25.44 • Analysis of statistical Energy industry own use -0.02 - -23.21 -0.04 -46.26 -32.42 -101.93 Losses -5.33 - -14.49 - -37.10 -149.72 -206.65 differences Final consumption 69.25 0.01 356.02 0.08 222.67 328.20 976.22 Industry 20.83 - 38.90 0.04 32.63 18.86 111.26 Iron and steel 12.60 - 0.10 - 0.44 0.16 13.30 • Country balances Chemical and petrochemical - - 0.00 - 0.00 0.01 0.01 Non-ferrous metals - - - - - - - were updated Non-metallic minerals 5.64 - 9.21 0.00 3.59 6.37 24.82 Transport equipment - - - - 0.17 - 0.17 Machinery 0.03 - 0.28 - 0.48 1.01 1.80 accordingly Mining and quarrying - - 0.05 - 0.01 - 0.06 Food and tobacco 2.20 - 1.32 - 2.13 3.02 8.67 Paper, pulp and print - - - - - - - • For the first time Wood and wood products - - 0.05 - 0.03 0.05 0.13 Construction 0.34 - 27.10 0.04 22.96 7.63 58.07 regions level FEB Textile and leather - - 0.01 - 0.03 0.04 0.09 Non-specified (industry) 0.02 - 0.77 - 2.78 0.58 4.15 Transport 0.05 - 219.39 - 0.38 0.14 219.97 Road 0.01 - 208.58 - - - 208.59 Domestic aviation - - 10.35 - - - 10.35 Rail 0.04 - 0.35 - 0.14 - 0.53 Pipeline transport - - 0.10 - 0.25 0.14 0.50 Domestic navigation - - - - - - - Non-specified (transport) - - - - - - - Other 48.36 0.01 90.83 0.04 189.66 309.20 638.09 Residential 32.66 - 68.78 - 53.41 215.82 370.67 Commercial and public services 15.65 0.01 18.98 0.04 136.18 93.17 264.03 Agriculture/forestry 0.00 - 0.46 - 0.01 - 0.48 Fishing 0.04 - 2.61 - 0.05 0.21 2.91 Non-specified (other) - - - - - - - Non-energy use - - 6.90 - - - 6.90 Non-energy use industry/transformation/energy - - 6.90 - - - 6.90

REGIONAL INDICATORS TFC/TPES CO2 emissions per capita, t/person 85% 0.90 84% 83% 80.0 77% 76% 0.80 66.8 70.0 0.70 Kazakhstan average 58% 57% 60.0 57% 57% 0.60 54% 53% World average 47% 50.0 46% 0.50 44% 40.0 0.40 32.6 34% 29% 30.0 0.30 14.7 20.0 0.20 11.7 8.7 10.2 5.8 8.2 9.9 5.3 6.6 4.7 3.4 8.7 5.3 0.10 10.0 3.7 0.00 0.0 Akmola obl. Aktobe obl. Almaty obl. Atyrau obl. WKO Zhambyl obl. Karaganda obl. Kostanay obl. Kyzylorda obl. Mangistau obl. SKO Pavlodar obl. NKO EKO Astana city Almaty city WORLD AVERAGE