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1 ETSAP semi-annual Workshop, Oxford, UK Models and Studies - - PDF document

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ETSAP semi-annual Workshop, Oxford, UK Models and Studies Analysing Long Term Strategies of the Electric Sector in the Italian Regions Rocco De Miglio, Maurizio Gargiulo, Evasio Lavagno Laboratorio di Analisi e Modelli Energetici - Dipartimento

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Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

Analysing Long Term Strategies of the Electric Sector in the Italian Regions

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop, Oxford, UK Models and Studies

Rocco De Miglio, Maurizio Gargiulo, Evasio Lavagno Laboratorio di Analisi e Modelli Energetici - Dipartimento di Energetica - Politecnico di Torino

Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

Local Energy System Modeling (Piemonte Region, Provinces, Metropolitan Areas, ..) ETSAP semi-annual Workshop, Oxford, UK

Laboratorio di Analisi e Modelli Energetici Rocco De Miglio, Maurizio Gargiulo, Raffaella Gerboni, Evasio Lavagno, Laura Schranz, Paolo Squillari Dipartimento di Energetica - Politecnico di Torino Corso Duca dei Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino - I

Analysis of Long Term Strategies of the Electric Sector in Italian Regions Main activities of the LAME Team on energy analysis and modelling sectors: TIMES-UK for NEEDS Integrated Project LCA and externalities studies on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells technologies

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Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

Analysing Long Term Strategies of the Electric Sector in the Italian Regions

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop, Oxford, UK Models and Studies

Rocco De Miglio, Maurizio Gargiulo, Evasio Lavagno Laboratorio di Analisi e Modelli Energetici - Dipartimento di Energetica - Politecnico di Torino

Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

* EDEN aimed to analyse the evolution of the electricity demand * OFFGEN aimed to analyse the generation options * EVAMB and MONAMB on the environmental impacts and their monitoring * STRUDEL aimed to assess the sustainability analysis methodology cooperation among LAME (POLITO), AI EE (Italian Association of Energy Economists) and CESI (Italian Electrical System Research Centre, project leader), in the framework of a wider SCENARI National Project, which includes other five sub-projects: The activity has been developed with reference to a project, called SCESEL SCESEL is intended to built and evaluate, with TIMES, developing scenarios (time horizon 2000-2030) for the whole Italian electricity system.

The project

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

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Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

Demand (base year situation and evolution in the time horizon) Fuel (cost and availability for coal, oil, natural gas and electricity import, base year situation and evolution in the time horizon Structure of the RES with inter-regional links (detail level, spatial resolution, grid voltage) Steps: Technologies (base year situation, past investments, new plants and devices available in the future, national and regional Energy Plans) Scenario Constraint (base year situation and evolution in the time horizon) steps

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

RES structure

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

The functional scheme for the Model of the Electricity System presents 40 Segments of electrical services demand 150 End use technologies supplied with different voltage levels 400 Supply technologies (thermal, hydro and other renewables power plants, combined heat and power plants) 8 Time-slices (Winter, Spring, Summer, Fall and D/N) 5 Voltage levels

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Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

The figure represents (in a simplified way) the typical RES structure inside a generic region, with electricity import/export and trade with neighbouring regions.

WIND BGS HYD SOL BIO

PIEMONTE

ELCP (Pie) Domanda elettrica (VdA)

  • Gen. Distribuita in BT

(VdA) KER GSL OIL GAS

VALLE D’AOSTA

ELCP (VdA) ELCAA (VdA) ELCD (VdA) ELCP (Lom) ELCAA (Lom) ELCA (Lom) Domanda elettrica (Lom) Generazione centralizzata e Locale AT e MT (Lom) SOL, HYD, WIND, BIOM (Lom)

  • Gen. da fonti

rinnovabili (Lom)

LOMBARDIA

ELCAA (Pie) ITA COMIMP (Pie) COMIMP(Lom) Vettoriamento PIEGASCCCE1 PIEGASCCCE3 PIEGASTBGE1 PIEBIOCTEE PIEGASTBGE2 PIEGASTBGE3 PIEGASTBGE4 PIEGASCTEE1 PIEGASCCCE4 PIEHYDPOME COAL Vettoriamento IMPORT/EXPORT ENV Estrazione (Pie) IMPEXPE Valle d’Aosta IMPEXPE Valle d’Aosta Vettoriamento ELCA (VdA) SOL, HYD, WIND, BIOM (VdA) Generazione centralizzata e Locale AT e MT (VdA) COMIMP (VdA) ENV Nuovi impianti IMPEXPE Piemonte IMPEXPE Piemonte PIEGASCCCE2 GRIDAAT (Pie) GRIDAAT (Vda) GRIDAT (VdA)

  • Imp. Aut/Cost

Trade Piemonte/ Valle d’Aosta Trade Piemonte/ Valle d’Aosta PIEGASCCCE5 PIEBIOCTEE3 PIEBIOCTEE2 PIEGASCCCE6 PIEMIXCTEE PIEBGSCTEE ELCA (Pie) ELCM (Pie) GRIDAT (Pie) GRIDMT (Pie) GRIDBT (Pie) PIEWINIMPE PIESOLIMPE PIEHYDBACE ELCD (Pie) LTH (Pie) Domanda elettrica (Pie) GRIDMT (VdA) ELCM (VdA)

  • Gen. da fonti

rinnovabili (VdA) PIEGASMCIE PIEGASMCIE2 PIEGASCHPE PIEGASCHPE1 Domanda elettrica (Lig)

  • Gen. Distribuita in BT

(Lig)

Liguria

ELCP (Lig) ELCAA (Lig) ELCD (Lig) IMPEXPE Liguria IMPEXPE Liguria Vettoriamento ELCA (Lig) SOL, HYD, WIND, BIOM (Lig) Generazione centralizzata e Locale AT e MT (Lig) COMIMP(Lig) ENV GRIDAAT (Lig) GRIDAT (Lig) GRIDMT (Lig) ELCM (Lig)

  • Gen. da fonti

rinnovabili (Lig) PIEHYDFLUE Trade Piemonte/ Liguria Trade Piemonte/ Liguria Generazione Locale in BT (Pie) Trade Piemonte/ Lombardia Trade Piemonte/ Lombardia GRIDAAT (Lom) GRIDAT (Lom) ELCM (Lom) GRIDMT (Lom) GRIDBT (Lom) ELCD (Lom) ENV

  • Gen. Distribuita

in BT (Lom) IMPEXPE Lombardia IMPEXPE Lombardia H2 (Pie)

The other energy vectors which supply the power plants are described as in-flows coming from a virtual region representing the aggregated I talian Energy scheme. RES structure

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

\\\\ RETE DI TRASMISSIONE NAZIONALE 400 kV / 220 kV RETE DI DISTRIBUZIONE AT REGIONALE (o subtrasmissione) RE TE DI DISTRIBUZIONE MT MT UTENZE BT SISTEMA DI GENERAZIONE COLLEGATO IN AAT 400 kV / 220 kV 132 kV / 150 kV 132 kV / 150 kV MT SISTEMA DI GENERAZIONE COLLEGATO IN MT BT RETE DI DISTRIBUZIONE BT SISTEMA DI GE NERAZIONE COLLEGATO IN AT UTENZE MT SISTEMA DI GENERAZIONE COLLEGATO IN BT UTENZE AT UTENZE AAT PROGETTO SCENARI DEFINIZIONE CONVENZIONALE DEI CONFINI TRA LE DIVERSE COMPONENTI DEL SISTEMA ELETTRICO Da altre Regioni GRIDAAT Alle altre Regioni GRIDAT GRIDMT GRIDBT C C C C C C C C C C C C C Commodities Markal-TIMES ELCP ELCAA ELCA ELCM ELCB C C C C C

5 voltage levels AAT produced & imported AAT national grid AT MT BT distribution 5 electricity commodities ELCP

  • ECLAA
  • ECLA

ECLM

  • ELCD

The grids are represented through 4 GRI D technologies GRIDAAT GRIDAT GRIDMT GRIDBT grids

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

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plant typologies

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

The plant typologies taken into consideration are listed in the table: Medium size and large plants are spatially identified and characterised. Only small plants are aggregated (minihydro, mni-chp, …).

steam cycle/condensation gas steam cycle/condensation

  • il

steam cycle/condensation coal new coal fuelled steam plants coal turbogas gas turbogas diesel oil steam cycle with repowered turbogas gas steam cycle with repowered turbogas

  • il

combined cycle gas natural gas derivate fuelled combined cycle gas derivate internal combustion engine diesel oil incinerator usw biomass combustion plant biomass combined cycle integrated with gasification heavy oils natural gas fuelled small thermal plant gas wind plant wind solar plant solar hydro plant hydro geothermal plant geothermal diesel oil fuelled combined diesel oil

  • il fuelled combined cycle
  • il
  • il fuelled turbogas
  • il

diesel oil fuelled small thermal plant diesel oil biogas combustion plant biogas combined cycle chp gas natural gas turbogas chp gas steam cycle chp

  • il
  • il fuelled turbogas chp
  • il

steam cycle/condensation chp gas steam cycle/condensation chp

  • il

combined cycle chp diesel oil steam cycle/condensation chp coal Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

new technologies

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop TechName TechDesc Comm-IN ENGNATG1A Gas turbine < 80 MW – High Voltage ELCGNATG ENGNATG1P Gas turbine < 300 MW – Very High Voltage ELCGNATG ENGNATV1P Gas turbine < 2500 MW - Very High Voltage ELCGNACV ENOLITV1P Steam turbine USC-FGD < 2500 MW oil - Very High Voltage ELCOLICV ENGSLCI1M Internal Combustion Engine < 20 MW – Intermediate Voltage ELCGSLCI ENGNACC1A Combined Cycle (turbogas) < 200 MW - High Voltage ELCGNACC ENGNACC1P Combined Cycle (turbogas) < 3000 MW - Very High Tens ELCGNACC ENSOLIM1B PV plant (urban areas) - Low Voltage ELCSOLRI ENSOLIM2B PV plant (rural areas) - Low Voltage ELCSOLRI ENGNAMT1M Micro-turbine < 0.5 MW - Intermediate Voltage ELCGNATG ENCARTV1P Steam turbine cycle USC >500 MW coal - (AAT) ELCCARCN ENWINIMAA Wind plant type A ELCWINRI ENWINIMBA Wind plant type B ELCWINRI ENWINIMCA Wind plant type C ELCWINRI ENWINIMDA Wind plant type D ELCWINRI ENBIOIM1M Biomass plants - Media Tens ELCBIORI ENBIOIM1A Biomass plants - High Voltage ELCBIORI ENHYDMIN Mini hydro ELCHYDRI ENGEOIM1A Geothermal plant - High Voltage ELCGEORI ENSOLIM1B PV plants (PV roofs) - Low Voltage ELCSOLRI ENSOLIM1M PV plants multi MW) - Intermediate Voltage ELCSOLRI ENGNAMCG1 Residential micro-chp North - Intermediate Voltage ELCGNAMC ENGNAMCG2 Residential micro-chp Centre - Intermediate Voltage ELCGNAMC ENGNAMCG3 Residential micro-chp South - Intermediate Voltage ELCGNAMC ENGNACKN1 Combine cycle Plant (CG) ELCGNACK

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Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

The figure shows the Power Plants contribution to the load curve: gas fuelled Combined Cycle Plants base-load

  • il and gas fuelled Steam Cycle Plants

modulation load curve

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

A detailed analysis of the evolution of the inter-regional electricity exchange under different scenarios and plant siting policies (national, regional, utilities) has been required for evaluate planning alternatives for the development of National and Regional transport/distribution grids. IRE-Trade-grids

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

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Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO ENEL Edison Edipower Endesa Tirreno Power AEM MI ASM BS

Repowering and conversion

  • f existing plants

Termini I merese (PA) Sulcis (CA) Sermide (MN) Ostiglia (MN) Torrevaldaliga Sud (RM) Chivasso (TO) Cassano (MI ) Tavazzano (LO) Piacenza (PC) Sarmato (PC) Ponti S.M. (BS) Santa Barbara (AR) Porto Corsini (RA) Pietrafitta (PG) La Casella (PC) Priolo G. (SR) Torrevaldaliga Nord(RM) Mercure

about 13.500 MW

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

repowering&conversion

Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO Edison Enipower Energia AEM TO AceaElectrabel Atel Candela (FG) Altomonte (CS) Torviscosa (UD)

  • S. Nazzaro (PV)

Ravenna (RA) Brindisi (BR) Voghera (PV)

about 8.500 MW

Moncalieri (TO) Simeri Crichi (CZ) Mantova (MN) Termoli (CB) Vercelli (VC) Novara (NO)

GreenField Combined Cycle Plants

new plant programs

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

new plant programs

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Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

About 20.000 MW. North Italy 44% Central-South Italy 8% South Italy 48% 2,4 23,8 15,0 23,2 2,0 8,1 7,6 3,9 4,0 9,9 ENEL Edison Municipalizzate Enipower Endesa EGL Energia Mirant E.ON Italia Altri new Power Plants new Power Plants approved approved by by MAP

MAP

PP approved

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

Fuel costs (from AIEE Team)

Oil, natural gas, coal costs

  • il

natural gas coal

fuel costs

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

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Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

GRTN Demand of energy services TWh/year ∆ TWh/year ∆ demand evolution

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

AIEE

Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

evaluation procedure

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

Energy Services Demand Evaluation Procedure

Energy service demand 2000 2030 I ntensity / Elasticity 2000 2030 Drivers 2000 2030 Population Added Value Households Buildings Employees Space heat requirements in households (kcal/ mq) I ndividual requirement for HW preparation (l/ day) . … Electricity intensity per Added Valued kWh/ €) Added value Elasticity Average lighting in households (lumen/ mq)

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Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

energy services

2000 Acqua calda sanitaria mld l/a 277,7 Illuminazione mld lumen/a 410,7 Frigorifero mld litri 5,93 Congelatore mld litri 2,01 Domanda lavaggio biancheria mld lavaggi/a 6,22 Domanda lavaggio stoviglie mld lavaggi/a 1,87 Domanda condizionamento TWh fr / a 3,1 Domanda riscaldamento MMcal/a 618,3 Domanda entertainment Televisore

  • n. televisori

38239841 Videoregistratori

  • n. videoregistratori

14441216 Videocamera

  • n. videocamere

4456835 Hi-Fi

  • n. Hi-Fi

12046110 PC

  • n. PC

7608926 Modem

  • n. modem

5480523 Segreteria

  • n. segreterie

3260755 Fax

  • n. fax

1592224 Videogame

  • n. videogames

3664633 Domanda cottura Forno elettrico

  • n. forni elettrici

14659173 Forno a microonde

  • n. forni a microonde

2449908 Fornello elettrico

  • n. fornelli elettrici

432488 Domanda servizi per la casa GWh/a 5683 Domanda servizi generali edifici GWh/a 6864

Assessment of the demand for energy services (input from AIEE Team)

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

Domande di servizi energetici nel settore terziario (n. indice 2005 = 100)

60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2000 2005 2010 2015 APPARECCHIATURE UFFICI FREDDO CLIMATIZZAZIONE AMBIENTI RISCALDAMENTO AMBIENTI COTTURA ACQUA CALDA ILLUMINAZIONE TRASPORTI E ALTRI SERVIZI

Domande di servizi energetici nel settore residenziale (n. indice 2005=100)

50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2005 2010 2015 acqua calda sanitaria illuminazione freddo (frigo) freddo (cong) lavaggio biancheria asciugabiancheria lavaggio stoviglie raffrescamento ambienti riscaldamento ambienti entertainment cottura servizi della casa servizi generali degli edifici Domande di servizi energetici soddisfatti da energia elettrica nei comparti industriali (n. indice 2005=100) 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 2000 2005 2010 2015 Metallurgia Meccanica Agroalimentare Tessile e Abbigliamento Materiali da costruzione, Vetro e Ceramica Chimica e Petrolchimica Cartaria e grafica Altre Industrie manifatturiere Edilizia

Residential sector - Energy service demand 2005 = 100 Service sector - Energy service demand 2005 = 100 Industrial sector - Electrical service demand 2005 = 100

Demand for energy services (input from AIEE reports) energy services

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

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Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

results: regional production

Regional Production Base Scenario 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 Time [year] Production [GWh]

ABR BAS CAL CAM EM R FVZ LAZ LIG LOM M AR M OL PIE PUG SAR SIC TAA TOS UM B VDA VEN

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

results: electricity import

Electricity Import Base Scenario 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 Time [year] Energy [GWh]

FVZ LIG LOM PIE PUG VDA VEN

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

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results: grid improvements

New Grid Capacity Requirements - Piemonte Base Scenario 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 Time [year] Capacity [MW]

AT BT MT

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

The figures represent two examples

  • f the trade mechanism with

neighboring regions, the situations for Emilia and Puglia in the BASE Scenario.

Trade - Emilia Region

  • 35000
  • 30000
  • 25000
  • 20000
  • 15000
  • 10000
  • 5000

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3 Years Energy [GWh] From Veneto to Emilia From Toscana to Emilia From Lombardia to Emilia From Liguria to Emilia From Emilia to Toscana From Emilia to Marche From Emilia to Lombardia IMPORT EXPORT Trade - Puglia Region 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3 2 3 1 2 3 2 Years Energy [GWh] From Puglia to Molise From Puglia to Campania From Puglia to Basilicata

Some results: TRADE

results: trade

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

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results: electricity flows

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

Lombardia Region Balance 2010 year

Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

results: fuel use

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop Fuel Use Base Scenario

200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 Time [year] Energy [GWh]

Import (elc) Coal Havy oil Natural gas Diesel oil Biori Gade HHDIG BGSR

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results: CO2 emissions

Regional CO2 Emissions Base Scenario

25000 50000 75000 100000 125000 150000 175000 200000 225000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 Time [year] Emissions [kt]

Abruzzo Basilicata Calabria Campania Emilia - R Friuli- V.G. Lazio Liguria Lombardia M arche M olise Piemonte Puglia Sardegna Sicilia Trentino-A.A. Toscana Umbria Valle d'Aosta Veneto

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

results I/O table for IRE

VDA PIE LIG LOM TAA VEN FVZ EMR TOS UMB MAR LAZ ABR MOL CAM PUG BAS CAL SIC SAR VDA 3982 PIE

  • 3982

1523 10618 LIG

  • 1523

2655 6636 LOM

  • 10618

4098 16591 TAA 129 VEN

  • 4098
  • 129
  • 7892

5973 FVZ 7892 EMR

  • 2655
  • 16591
  • 5973

6388 2689 TOS

  • 6636
  • 6388

664 5383 122 UMB

  • 664
  • 374
  • 738

MAR

  • 2689

LAZ

  • 5383

374 885 105 ABR 738 MOL

  • 3105

CAM

  • 885
  • 6636
  • 6195

PUG 3105 6636 12802 BAS 6195

  • 12802

5479 CAL

  • 5479

1404 SIC

  • 1404

SAR

  • 122
  • 105

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

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Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

3982 129 7892

2010

4098 10618

Base Scenario

16591 2655 1523 6636 6388 2689 664 738 374 122 5383

3105

105 885 6636 6195 12802 5479 1404

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

results: trade graph

Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

results: CO2 emissions from coal plants

CO2 Emissions from Coal Plants Base Scenario 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 Time [year] Emissions [kt]

FVZ1 FVZ2 LAZ1 LAZ2 LIG1 LIG2 LIG3 LIG4 LOM PUG1 PUG2 PUG3 SAR1 SAR2 SAR3 SAR4 UM B1 UM B2 VEN2 VEN3 VEN1

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

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results: CO2 emissions/permits

Regional CO2 Emissions Env-Permit Scenario

  • 100000
  • 50000

50000 100000 150000 200000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 Time [year] Emisions [kt]

ABR BAS CAL CAM EM R FVZ LAZ LIG LOM M AR M OL PIE PUG SAR SIC TAA TOS UM B VDA VEN Permit trade

Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO

future work

ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

A Phase II of the Project is planned, in the following two directions :

  • Scenario analyses

(in addition to Base, Kyoto and K+permit trade already done) specific constraints in IRE and import plant siting, fuel mix, distr/conc electricity production, regional plans LNG terminals siting pipeline terminals, effects of taxation and subsidy policies effects of externalities

  • Modelling improvement

industry demand cogeneration plants peak behaviour trade tch (not only exchange) CO2 limits as national (not regional) level links with GIS representations

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Oxford (UK) November 2005 LAME - POLITO ETSAP semi-annual Workshop

Thank you