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The 7 th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan CO 2 Emission Reduction from the Power Sector in Selected Asian Countries Ram M. Shrestha Ram M. Shrestha Asian Institute of Technology Asian Institute of Technology Thailand

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CO2 Emission Reduction from the Power Sector in Selected Asian Countries

Ram M. Shrestha Ram M. Shrestha Asian Institute of Technology Asian Institute of Technology Thailand Thailand

The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

Overview of Presentation Overview of Presentation

ARRPEEC power sector project. Status of power sector CO2 emission during 1980-1997. Least cost generation options without CO2 emission

targets.

Least cost generation options under CO2 emission

targets.

Marginal cost of CO2 mitigation in selected countries. Implications on local/regional environmental emissions Conclusions

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT ARRPEEC ARRPEEC --

  • - Power Sector Project: Objectives

Power Sector Project: Objectives

  • Assessment of least cost supply-side options for mitigating GHG and
  • ther harmful emissions subject to emission reduction targets
  • Identification of some CDM projects and assessment of their GHG and
  • ther harmful emissions mitigation potential
  • Assessment of environmental and utility planning implications of

Independent Power Producers (IPP) and Decentralized Power Generation (DPG) Countries Covered: Yunan (China), NREB (India), Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

Share of Power Sector CO Share of Power Sector CO2

2 Emissions

Emissions (1990 (1990-

  • 1999)

1999)

Power sector’s share in total CO2 emission: 12% in Sri Lanka to

  • ver 42% in China and India

Increase in the sector’s share in China, India, Indonesia, Sri

Lanka.

Decrease in the share in Thailand and Vietnam.

Share of the Power Sector CO 2 Emission 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

C h i n a I n d i a I n d

  • n

e s i a S r i L a n k a T h a i l a n d V i e t n a m A s i a O E C D W

  • r

l d

Percent 1990 1999

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

CO CO2

2 Emission from the Power Sector

Emission from the Power Sector (1980 (1980-

  • 1997), 10

1997), 106

6 tons

tons

Sri Lanka

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 CO2 Emissions (million ton) Oil

Thailand

10 20 30 40 50 60 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 CO2 Emissions (million ton) Gas Oil Coal

Vietnam

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 CO2 Emissions (million ton) Gas Oil Coal

Indonesia

10 20 30 40 50 60 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

CO2 Emissions (million ton) Gas Oil Coal

India

100 200 300 400 500

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

CO2 emission (million tons) Gas Oil Coal

China

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

CO2 emission (million tons) Gas Oil Coal

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

Least Least-

  • cost Generation Planning Model

cost Generation Planning Model

Capacity Mix Optimal expansion plan Generation Mix/Fuel Mix Emission Factors Total Cost CO2, SO2 and NOx Emissions

Electricity Generation Planning Model

Demand-side Data Electricity Demand Emissions constraints Supply-side Data

Minimize: Total System Costs

(capital + O&M +Fuel + DSM Cost)

Subject to:

  • Power demand constraints
  • Annual energy constraints
  • Hydro-energy constraints
  • Reliability constraints
  • Fuel or resource availability

constraints

  • Emission constraints
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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

Candidate Generation Technologies Candidate Generation Technologies

Note:

BIGCC = Biomass Gassification Combined Cycle, PFBC = Pressurized Fluidized Bed Combustion, IGCC = Integrated Gassification Combined Cycle

Vietnam Thailand Sri Lanka Indonesia NREB -- India Yunan -- China

Region/ Countries Generation Technology Options

PFBC, Combined Cycle Combined Cycle, PFBC, IGCC Combined Cycle, PFBC, IGCC PFBC Combined Cycle, PFBC, IGCC PFBC

Cleaner and Efficient

Wind, Minihydro, Dendro, Hydro Conventional Coal and Oil, Diesel, Combustion Turbine Hydro Conventional Coal and Oil, Nuclear Hydro Conventional Coal and Oil, Combustion Turbine, Geothermal, Minihydro Conventional Coal, Combustion Turbine BIGCC, Wind, Hydro Conventional Coal, Nuclear Geothermal, Hydro Solar PV, Wind Conventional Coal

Renewable Conventional Thermal

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

Least Cost Generation Options Least Cost Generation Options

Cost effective generation technologies without CO2 emission reduction targets

Conventional Coal, Diesel, Combustion Turbine Sri Lanka Conventional Coal, Combined Cycle, Hydro Vietnam Conventional Coal, Combined Cycle Thailand Conventional Coal, Combined Cycle Indonesia Conventional Coal, Combined Cycle, Nuclear, PFBC, IGCC, Hydro, Wind NREB -- India Conventional Coal, Hydro Yunan -- China

Generation Technology Region/Country

  • Under the BAU scenario (i.e.without a CO2 emission reduction

target), cleaner, energy efficient and non-hydro renewable electricity generation technologies are not found cost effective in the selected countries except NREB (India).

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

CO CO2

2 Emission during 2003

Emission during 2003-

  • 2017, 10

2017, 106

6 tons

tons

NREB - India 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 CO2 Emissions (million tons) Gas Coal Yunan -- China 5 10 15 20 25 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 CO2 Emissions (million tons) Coal

  • Yunan Province (China): The power sector CO2 emission in 2017 would be 1.6 times that in

2003.

  • NREB (India): CO2 emission in 2017 would be 2.78 times that in 2003. Increase in share of

coal based generation in the power sector CO2 emission from 70% in 2003 to 90% in 2017.

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

CO CO2

2 Emission during 2003

Emission during 2003-

  • 2017, 10

2017, 106

6 tons

tons

(contd.) (contd.)

Vietnam 10 20 30 40 50 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 CO2 Emissions (million tons) Gas Oil Coal Thailand

50 100 150 200 250 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 CO2 Emission (million tons) Gas Oil Coal Lignite

  • Thailand: The CO2 emission from the power sector in 2017 would be 2.85 times that in
  • 2003. The contribution of coal based generation in CO2 emission would increase from 25%

in 2003 to 84% in 2017.

  • Vietnam: The CO2 emission from the power sector in 2017 would be 2.34 time that of 2003.

The contribution of coal based generation in CO2 emission would increase from 70% in 2003 to 82% in 2010 and would decrease to 61% in 2017.

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

CO CO2

2 Emission Intensity during 2003

Emission Intensity during 2003-

  • 2017

2017 (kg CO (kg CO2

2/kWh)

/kWh)

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 CO2 Emission Intensity (kg/kWh) Yunan (China) NREB (India) Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam

  • CO2 intensity to increase in NREB (India), Thailand and Sri Lanka and decrease in

Yunan (China)

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

Least Least-

  • Cost Options at Selected CO

Cost Options at Selected CO2

2 Emission Targets

Emission Targets

Cost-Effective Cleaner/Energy Efficient and Renewable Technologies

  • Yunan

Yunan (China): (China): IGCC, PFBC, Wind, Geo-thermal and Solar options selected at CO2 reduction target of not less than 5%.

  • NREB (India):

NREB (India): IGCC, PFBC and Nuclear selected even without CO2 reduction target; BIGCC selected at 5% and higher targets.

  • Indonesia:

Indonesia: Geo-thermal selected even without CO2 reduction targets.

  • Sri Lanka:

Sri Lanka: Wind selected at 10% and higher targets; Dendro at 20% target

  • Thailand:

Thailand: Emission targets met by higher share of combined cycle plants; IGCC selected only at 20% reduction target.

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

Marginal Abatement Costs, Marginal Abatement Costs, $/ton C at 1998 prices $/ton C at 1998 prices

23.2 NA 17.9 NA Sri Lanka Thailand Indonesia NREB – India Yunan -- China Country 43.0 NA 20.7 15.7 52.6 NA 13.8 11.0 NA 19.7 12.5 6.6 NA 17.6 14.3 11.8 20% 15% 10% 5% CO2 Emission Reduction Targets

Note:

NA = not applicable Marginal abatement costs are expressed in 1998 US $.

Ranges of MAC values:

  • 6.6 to 15.7 $/ton of Carbon at 5% reduction target
  • 12.5 to 20.7 $/ton of Carbon at 10% reduction target
  • 23.2 to 52.6 $/ton of Carbon at 20% reduction target
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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

CO CO2

2 Mitigation (

Mitigation (“ “Supply Supply” ”) Curves ) Curves

Cost of CO2 reduction relatively low in Yunan (China) and NREB (India). CO2 emission reduction during 2003-2017, from Yunan (China), NREB (India),

Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand:

1.3 billion tons at MAC of 20 $/ton C or lower. 1.6 billion tons at MAC of 40 $/ton C or lower.

Estimates of Full Global Trading price of carbon ranges from 22 to 88 $/ton C

[Ellerman (1998), Painuly (2001)]

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 CO2 Reduction (million tons) Abatement cost ($/ton C) NREB -- India Thailand Indonesia 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 10 20 30 40 50 60 CO2 Reduction (million tons) Abatement cost ($/ton C) Yunan -- China Sri Lanka

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

SO SO2

2 and NO

and NOx

x Emission Reductions

Emission Reductions

Disproportionately large % reduction in SO2 emission (over 30%) to take place at

15% CO2 emission reduction target in Yunan (China), NREB (India) and Thailand.

NOx reduction by 36% at 15% CO2 reduction target in Yunan (China).

10 20 30 40 50 60 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% CO2 reduction target SO2 Reduction (%) Yunan (China) NREB (India) Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% CO2 emission reduction target NOx Reduction Yunan (China) NREB (India) Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam

SO2 Reduction NOx Reduction

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

Conclusions Conclusions

At present costs, cleaner/energy efficient and renewable options are

not cost effective under the BAU case, except in NREB (India).

Clean coal technologies would be cost effective at 5% CO2 reduction

target in Yunan (China) and at BAU case in NREB (India).

1.3 billion tons of CO2 emission could be cost effectively reduced

during 2003-2017 from power generation in Yunan (China), NREB (India), Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand at marginal abatement cost of not more than 20 $/ton C (which less than the estimate Full Global Trading price of 22-88 $/ton C).

Disproportionately large percentage reduction in SO2 emission (I.e.,

  • ver 30%), would take place at 15% CO2 emission reduction target

in Yunan (China), NREB (India) and Thailand.

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The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT

Thank You