Address to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia Dr - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Address to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia Dr Martin Parkinson Secretary to the Treasury Date Presenter Revisions to IMF growth forecasts Per cent Per cent 4.75 4.75 2011 Pre-GFC average 4.25 4.25 4.1 2015 2014
4.1 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.8 2.75 3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 2.75 3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Per cent Per cent Pre-GFC average 2014 2015 2012 2011 2013
Note: Evolution of IMF forecasts for world growth (calendar year). Source: IMF WEO.
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 to 2013 2014 to 2025 Percentage points contribution, annual average Percentage points contribution, annual average Labour utilisation Net foreign income Labour productivity Terms of trade Per capita income growth
Note: The hatched area represents the additional labour productivity required to achieve long run average growth in real gross national income per capita. Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and Treasury.
Note: Assumes that mining investment has an import share of 50 per cent. Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0, 5302.0, BREE and Treasury.
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Percentage points Percentage points Net resources investment Resources exports Forecasts Projections Forecasts GDP growth Projections Non-resources expenditure Resources expenditure
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1997-98 2001-02 2005-06 2009-10 2013-14 2017-18 Per cent Forecasts Projections 20-year average Per cent
Source: ABS Cat. No. 5204.0 and Treasury.
Source: Treasury.
1 2 3 4 5
2 4 Jun-81 Jun-85 Jun-89 Jun-93 Jun-97 Jun-01 Jun-05 Jun-09 Jun-13 Jun-17 Jun-21 Jun-25 Per cent Per cent (f) Output (LHS) Unemployment (RHS) Cyclical- adjustment Long- run
Source: Treasury.
15 30 45 60 75 15 30 45 60 75 Dec-00 Dec-03 Dec-06 Dec-09 Dec-12 Dec-15 Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP Japan United States euro area Forecasts
Japan 15.7% United States of America 9.5% China 8.5% New Zealand 7.4% Korea 6.6% United Kingdom 6.4% India 3.8% Singapore 3.6% Hong Kong 2.9% Other 35.4% China 32.4% Japan 15.2% Korea 6.7% United States of America 5.0% New Zealand 3.5% Singapore 3.3% India 3.2% Taiwan 2.4% United Kingdom 2.3% Other 26.0%
Source: ABS Cat. No. 5368.0 and 5368.0.55.003.
2009 2020 2030 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Billions (persons) Billions (persons) North America Europe Asia Pacific Central and South America Africa and Middle East India China Other Asia Pacific
Source: 'Kharas, H. and Gertz, G. (2010) The New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East.
Source: ABS Cat. No. 3401.0. Data are monthly.
20 40 60 80 100 120 20 40 60 80 100 120 Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 '000 '000 China New Zealand Japan India
24 25 26 27 28 24 25 26 27 28 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22 2023-24 Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP 2013-14 MYEFO (no tax cap) 2014-15 Budget (tax cap)
Note: A tax-to-GDP cap of 23.9 per cent has been applied to 2014-15 Budget projections. There is no tax cap on 2013-14 MYEFO projections. Source: 2014-15 Budget.
0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5
0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP 2013-14 MYEFO - tax cap 2014-15 Budget - no tax cap 2014-15 Budget - tax cap 2013-14 MYEFO - no tax cap
Source: 2014-15 Budget.
Note: Based on Budget 2014-15 parameters.
13 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07 2010-11 2014-15 2018-19 2022-23 $thousands $thousands First tax threshold 1st tax rate 2nd tax rate 3rd tax rate Average full-time employee hits 2nd highest tax bracket (2015-16) Average ordinary full time earnings