about the so-called Alberta Advantage Gil McGowan President - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Alberta’s deficit and the truth about the so-called “Alberta Advantage”

Gil McGowan President Alberta Federation of Labour

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17

West Texas Intermediate $US / BBL

Monthly, 2005 to 2017

Source: Alberta Government Economic Dashboard

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Property income and provincial revenue Alberta and other provinces

2008 to 2016 Source: CANSIM 385-0034

% of Revenue Alberta % of Revenue All provinces except Alberta

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% Alberta British Columbia Manitoba New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Nova Scotia Ontario Prince Edward Island Quebec Saskatchewan

Provincial public service pay as % of average provincial pay 12 months ending September 2016

Provincial ratio National average

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Alberta British Columbia Ontario Saskatchewan Manitoba Newfoundland and Labrador Quebec Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island New Brunswick

Consolidated provincial / local expense share of GDP -- 2016

Source: CANSIM 385-0041 and CANSIM 384-0038

• 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Consolidated provincial / local expense per capita -- 2016

Adjusted for differences in public sector wages and salaries

Source: CANSIM 385-0041, CANSIM 051-0042, CANSIM 183-0002

9.2% 12.7% 13.4% 14.0% 14.4% 14.9% 15.6% 16.9% 17.1% 20.5%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% Alberta Saskatchewan Ontario British Columbia Manitoba Newfoundland and Labrador New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Quebec

Own-source revenue excluding resources % of GDP -- 2016

Source: CANSIM 385-0041 and 384-0048

It’s about revenue, stupid…

Moody’s Standard and Poor DBRS Parliamentary Budget Office

If we taxed like (x, y, or z) we’d raise how much more?

B.C. $15 Billion Sask $11 Billion Ralph (before the flat tax) $7.4 Billion

Personal Income Tax (over incomes of $100 000)

Ontario $3.6 Billion B.C. $2.4 Billion Sask $1 Billion

Corporate Tax

Eliminate the preferential tax for small business…

$1.9 Billion

Sales Tax

Based on revenue raised in Alberta from GST, we know a PST would raise $711 million for each tax point.

If we had a sales tax like…

Sask (5%) $3.8 Billion B.C. (7%) $5.4 Billion Ontario (8%) $6.2 Billion

Why I can’t advocate for a sales tax…

Albertan’s don’t want it It’s regressive Perception that it’s the political suicide tax (PST) We don’t do those kinds of things to friends

What we’re asking for…

Name and explain the problem Commit to educating the public Commit to putting alternatives to Albertans for consideration