about the so-called Alberta Advantage Gil McGowan President - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Alberta’s deficit and the truth about the so-called “Alberta Advantage” Gil McGowan President Alberta Federation of Labour

100 120 140 160 20 40 60 80 0 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 Source: Alberta Government Economic Dashboard May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 West Texas Intermediate May-09 Sep-09 Monthly, 2005 to 2017 Jan-10 May-10 $US / BBL Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17

Property income and provincial revenue Alberta and other provinces 2008 to 2016 Source: CANSIM 385-0034 40% 35% 30% 25% % of Revenue Alberta 20% % of Revenue All provinces except Alberta 15% 10% 5% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Provincial public service pay as % of average provincial pay 12 months ending September 2016 180% 180% 160% 160% 140% 140% 120% 120% 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% Alberta British Columbia Manitoba New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Nova Scotia Ontario Prince Edward Island Quebec Saskatchewan Provincial ratio National average

Consolidated provincial / local expense share of GDP -- 2016 Source: CANSIM 385-0041 and CANSIM 384-0038 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Alberta British Columbia Ontario Saskatchewan Manitoba Newfoundland and Labrador Quebec Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island New Brunswick

Consolidated provincial / local expense per capita -- 2016 Adjusted for differences in public sector wages and salaries Source: CANSIM 385-0041, CANSIM 051-0042, CANSIM 183-0002 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 -

Own-source revenue excluding resources % of GDP -- 2016 Source: CANSIM 385-0041 and 384-0048 22% 20.5% 21% 20% 19% 18% 17.1% 16.9% 17% 15.6% 16% 14.9% 14.4% 15% 14.0% 13.4% 14% 12.7% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9.2% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Alberta Saskatchewan Ontario British Columbia Manitoba Newfoundland and Labrador New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Quebec

It’s about revenue, stupid…  Moody’s  Standard and Poor  DBRS  Parliamentary Budget Office

If we taxed like (x, y, or z) we’d raise how much more?  B.C. $15 Billion  Sask $11 Billion  Ralph (before the flat tax) $7.4 Billion

Personal Income Tax (over incomes of $100 000)  Ontario $3.6 Billion  B.C. $2.4 Billion  Sask $1 Billion

Corporate Tax Eliminate the preferential tax for small business… $1.9 Billion

Sales Tax Based on revenue raised in Alberta from GST, we know a PST would raise $711 million for each tax point.

If we had a sales tax like…  Sask (5%) $3.8 Billion  B.C. (7%) $5.4 Billion  Ontario (8%) $6.2 Billion

Why I can’t advocate for a sales tax…  Albertan’s don’t want it  It’s regressive  Perception that it’s the political suicide tax (PST)  We don’t do those kinds of things to friends

What we’re asking for…  Name and explain the problem  Commit to educating the public  Commit to putting alternatives to Albertans for consideration