Aaron T Wolf, PhD Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Aaron T Wolf, PhD Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 12, 2022 345 likes •840 views

Aaron T Wolf, PhD Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State University, USA International Symposium on Water Diplomacy Stockholm, Sweden 16-17 November 2016 EMAIL: WOLFA@GEO.ORST.EDU WWW.TRANSBOUNDARYWATERS.ORST.EDU Aaron T Wolf, PhD

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Aaron T Wolf, PhD Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State University, USA International Symposium on Water Diplomacy Stockholm, Sweden 16-17 November 2016

EMAIL: WOLFA@GEO.ORST.EDU WWW.TRANSBOUNDARYWATERS.ORST.EDU

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Aaron T Wolf, PhD Program in Water Conflict Management

Oregon State University, USA

International Symposium on Water Diplomacy Stockholm, Sweden 16-17 November 2016

EMAIL: WOLFA@GEO.ORST.EDU WWW.TRANSBOUNDARYWATERS.ORST.EDU

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Aaron T Wolf, PhD Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State University, USA International Symposium on Water Diplomacy Stockholm, Sweden 16-17 November 2016

EMAIL: WOLFA@GEO.ORST.EDU WWW.TRANSBOUNDARYWATERS.ORST.EDU

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  • Promotes a global

water governance culture

  • Facilitates

“customized” solutions

  • Enhance cooperation

among stakeholders.

  • 17 partners on five

continents.

  • A state-of-the-art GIS

collection of international river basins

  • Online databases

documenting transboundary water treaties & events

  • Can be used to better

understand water-related conflict and cooperation Oregon State University Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation Professional/Graduate Certificate Program Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database (TFDD) Universities Partnership for Transboundary Waters Certificate

  • Skill-building training
  • Practicum and real-world

problem solving Collaborative Facilitations and Mediations

  • Skills-building workshops

to promote cooperation between stakeholders

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Framework for Analysis

Benefits, Risks, and Opportunities

Political Opportunity Political Risk Economic Benefit Economic Cost

Countries may pursue unilateral development given high risks and high costs Countries most likely to make a deal Countries likely to consider a deal; risk reduction and

  • pportunity enhancement

would improve likelihood Countries likely to consider a deal; benefit expansion would improve likelihood

Source: Subramanian, Brown & Wolf 2013

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Framework for Analysis

Benefits, Risks, and Opportunities

Political Opportunity Political Risk Economic Benefit Economic Cost

Countries may pursue unilateral development given high risks and high costs Countries most likely to make a deal Countries likely to consider a deal; risk reduction and

  • pportunity enhancement

would improve likelihood Countries likely to consider a deal; benefit expansion would improve likelihood

Source: Subramanian, Brown & W DIPLOMACY WATER

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What have academics learned (while everyone else was doing all the work…)? 1. More cooperation than conflict; water as entry way to dialogue

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

  • 7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 21 17 6 68 227 420 122 682 276 242 334 7 164

Increasing Conflict

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  • 2. Relationships are more complicated

than events -> water interactions

  • 3. Not all conflict is bad, not all

cooperation is good

  • 4. Agreements can solidify power

imbalances: “hydro-hegemony” London School (Zeitoun, Mirumachi, et al.):

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  • Hydro-hegemony ?
  • > Counter-hegemony (Petersen-Perlman)
  • Polluter pays?
  • >Whoever has $$ pays
  • Transparency?
  • > “creative ambiguity”
  • RBO? Not necessarily
  • Basin-wide agreement? Ditto

You do what works, now

Everything you thought you knew is wrong: Politics is the art of the possible, or

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Lesson 1: Hydro-politics is about hydro AND politics… and all politics is local (or, countries don’t make decisions, people do)

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 Hydromet (1961), entirely

technical, eventually led to:

 Undugu (1983), and,  Tecconile (1993) – annual

academic meeting, and finally to:

 Nile Basin Initiative

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Lesson 2: If you get stuck on a problem, make it bigger…

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Dams and Hydroelectric Schemes

Source: UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Europe 2006 21

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Regional Power

Development

Strategy

Source: NBI RPTP 2011 22

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Lesson 3: If you get stuck on a problem, make it bigger… ...or smaller

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Manage through Existing Institutions?

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Negotiated Basin Development Space

Environmental Sensitivity Rankings

(Reflecting Interest and Values)

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Negotiated Basin Development Space

Development Pressure Rankings

(Reflecting Interest and Values)

Green Least Impact Orange More Impact Red Most Impact

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Lesson 4: Secrecy is dead…

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LESSON 5: Don’t forget the spirit – and fun! – of water

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Water is sexy!!

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Balance in Conflict

Justice/Self Mercy/Other Compassion Anger/ The Other Side

Universal?

Al-Hakam/ Father Ar-Rahman/ Son Ar-Rahim/ Holy Spirit

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Yin Yang

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Sulha: Reconciliation

  • From musalaha, reconciliation: hostilities ended, honor re-

established, and peace restored in the community.

  • Two basic elements: rights and honor.
  • Tarrahdhin: “Resolution of a conflict that involves no

humiliation.”

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Kampung Spirit: Singapore Kindness Movement

  • Spirit of neighborliness of village life
  • Being revived for vertical living
  • Community Mediation Centre – 70% of cases resolved
  • Community Disputes Resolution Tribunals, since Oct. 2015
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NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL POLICY STATEMENT for Freshwater Management 2014

 “Addressing ta̅ngata whenua values and interests

across all of the well-beings, and including the involvement of iwi and hapū in the overall management of fresh water, are key to meeting

  • bligations under the Treaty of Waitangi (1840).”

 All things in the natural world have mauri (life

force) and wairua (a spiritual dimension). Respect for the spiritual integrity of the environment and the atua (God) that created it will ensure that the taonga (treasure) can be protected and passed on to succeeding generations.

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Thank you!