The Overall Cost of Renewable Energies Gerd H. Wolf Zagreb, November 14 th , 2014 Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Also orally presented at the Council of EU Energy Ministers Dublin April 2013 Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Ref. 1130862 EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AREA 8 May 2014 Oslo CONSULTATIVE COMMITTEE RESOLUTION AND REPORT on renewable energies and economic competitiveness Rapporteurs: Mr Gerhard WOLF (European Economic and Social Committee, Group III Various Interests – Germany) Mr Per ANKER ‐ NILSSEN (EFTA Consultative Committee, Employers – Norway) Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Rise of the CO 2 ‐ Conzentration now already exceeding 400 ppm Can this rise be drastically converted within the next 36 years? Presently, Germany contributes with about 2,5%, the EU as a whole with about 11% to these global emissions. Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Climate Change – Energy ‐ Transition – the Political Goal : a fast and significant reduction of the global CO2 ‐ emissions , primarily by an increased use of renewable energies. Coal, oil and gas (finite resources!) will become increasingly scarce and Implicit claim: expensive. • Renewables will become increasingly cheaper (learning ‐ curve). • Developing and installing renewable technologies will result in a leading position on the global market ‐ the EU becomes avant ‐ garde, technologically The fight against climate change and and morally! • Nuclear energy, by including „external costs“ and because of growing the need for affordable energy can be investments in safety, will become more expansive. • Consumption of energy can be reduced and consumers can be educated reconciled. • The costs of the energy ‐ transition are lower than the costs caused by climate change (Stern ‐ Report) Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Energy ‐ Transition – the assumptions : • Coal, oil and gas (finite resources!) will become increasingly scarce and expensive. • Renewables will become increasingly cheaper (learning ‐ curve). • Developing and installing renewable technologies will result in a leading position on the global market ‐ the EU becomes avant ‐ garde, technologically and morally! • Nuclear energy, by including „external costs“ and because of growing investments in safety, will become more expansive. • Consumption of energy can be reduced and consumers can be educated • The costs of the energy ‐ transition are lower than the costs caused by climate change (Stern ‐ Report) Gerd H. Wolf ‐ ZAGREB ‐ 14. November 2014
Low‐Carbon Economy Roadmap 2050 of the European Commission (March 2011) 100% 100% Power Sector 80% 80% Basis of scenarios Electricity Policy before 2011 Current policy 80% domestic GHG reduction in Residential & Tertiary 60% 60% 2050 Industry Efficient pathway: 40% 40% Roadmap 2050 -25% in 2020 Transport -40% in 2030 20% 20% -60% in 2040 Non CO 2 Agriculture Non CO 2 Other Sectors 0% 0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 7 Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
This resulted in aims such as e.g. the 20 – 20 – 20 targets These targets, known as the "20 ‐ 20 ‐ 20" targets , set three key objectives for 2020: A 20% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels; (new: a 40% reduction in 2030) Raising the share of EU energy consumption produced from renewable sources to 20%; (new: to 27% in 2030) A 20% improvement in the EU's energy efficiency. Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Europe reports that 14% of its primary energy came from renewable sources in 2012. However, two thirds of this amount came from hydropower (most viable locations have already been harnessed) and the burning of wood. Another 13% came from biofuels (which are associated with nutrient leaching, soil erosion and increased CO 2 issues). Only 22% of its renewable energy, or 3% of total primary energy, came from solar and wind. From J.P. Morgan 2014 – The Arc of History – An Eye on the Market Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
2020: • Raising the share of EU energy consumption produced from renewable sources to 20%; Germany 2013: Total energy Consumption Fraction of renewables: ~ 12%. Of these contributed: • Photovoltaics ~ 7% ( 1%) • Wind ~ 12% ( 1.5%) • Hydro ~ 5% ( 0.6%) • Biomass and waste ~ 75% ( 9%) (from BMWi data) Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Biom Biomass ass (m (main ainly wood) ood) contributes butes rela lativ tively ly mo most st but but wha what ar are the the pr problem oblems? • Monoculture • Competition with food production • Endangering species diversity • Low power density ! While biomass can be stored and used on demand, the overarching problem of its use for electricity generation is that a piece of land, covered by PV panels produces a factor of >100 more electricity than the alternative use via biomass could provide. Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
2020: • Raising the share of EU energy consumption produced from renewable sources to 20%; Germany 2013: Total energy Consumption Fraction of renewables: ~ 12%. Of these contributed: massively • Photovoltaics ~ 7% ( 1%) upgrading solar • Wind ~ 12% ( 1.5%) and wind! • Hydro ~ 5% ( 0.6%) • Biomass and waste ~ 75% ( 9%) (from BMWi data) Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Not only Wind but also Solar Energy have been Mouchot´s used since long Sun ‐ Engine MOUCHOT, Augustin. Herald of Desertec ! La Chaleur solaire et ses used in Algiers Applications industrielles. The first book explicitly devoted to solar energy. French Its publication coincided with the unveiling of Patent Mouchot’s largest solar steam engine, the so ‐ 1860 called ‘Sun Engine’, in 1869 Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Introducing instruments of a planned economy: the German Feed ‐ in Law Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Übergabe des EFI ‐ Jahresgutachtens 2014 am 26. Februar GERMANY Expert ‐ Commission Research and Innovation GUTACHTEN ZU FORSCHUNG, INNOVATION UND TECHNOLOGISCHER LEISTUNGSFÄHIGKEIT DEUTSCHLANDS 2014 The commission concludes that the feed ‐ in ‐ law is neither a cost ‐ efficient instrument to prevent climate change nor is it a measurable driver of innovations. These two arguments show that there is no justifiable reason for continuing with this law. Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
OPINION EESC April 2013: Feed ‐ in rules for RES are therefore to be carefully (re)de fined, in order to provide for security of supply at all times and ensure that renewable electricity production can meet demand. Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Present developments of RES costs Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Übergabe des EFI ‐ Jahresgutachtens 2014 am 26. Februar Expert ‐ Commission Research and Innovation GUTACHTEN ZU FORSCHUNG, INNOVATION UND TECHNOLOGISCHER LEISTUNGSFÄHIGKEIT DEUTSCHLANDS 2014 The German Feed ‐ in law made each kWh el ( from any source!) Auszug zum EEG: Die Expertenkommission kommt zu dem Schluss, dass das EEG more expensive (2014) for normal consumers by 6,4 cent. weder ein kosteneffizientes Instrument für Klimaschutz ist noch Last year normal consumers paid in average a factor 5 more eine messbare Innovationswirkung zu entfalten scheint. Aus for renewable electricity than for fossil or nuclear. This year diesen beiden Gründen ergibt sich deshalb keine Rechtfertigung the subsidies paid by consumers will add up to 24 Bio €. für eine Fortführung des EEG. Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
In Germany : the consumers supports RES by additional 6.24 cent for each KWhel from any source ! 2014 in total 22.4 Bio € solar Falling installation costs wind Growing costs for RES Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
From US Department of Energy 2014 Data courtesy of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Chart by Daniel Wood . coal Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
From: Electricity generation by intermittent sources F. Wagner Max ‐ Planck ‐ Institut für Plasmaphysik, Greifswald, Germany Presentation at the Joint EPS ‐ SIF International School on Energy 2014 Varenna EPS ‐ European Physical society SIF ‐ Italian Physical Society Development of the average electricity price in Germany for households Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Matthew Karnitschnig: Germany's Expensive Gamble on Renewable Energy Aug. 26, 2014 Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
While this rise of energy ‐ costs – caused by an increased installation of RES – may perhaps saturate indeed, however, these costs show only the tip of the iceberg. Because those costs are not yet included, which are caused by the intermittent character of wind and sunshine and which affect the energy system as a whole. What are the underlying problems of intermittent renewables (RES)? Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
2013 Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
Performance of Pe of RE RES (G (Germ ermany) Annual ener Annual energy gy yield yield from ins nstalle lled capacit apacity (po power) r) in in Ger German any Year 2011 2012 Wind ~19.8 % ~19.2% Solar ~10.3% ~10.4% see also later „firm capacities“ What are the consequences ? Gerd H. Wolf ‐ Zagreb ‐ November 14th, 2014
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