AAPA Safety Briefing Martin Eran-Tasker Technical Director - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AAPA Safety Briefing

Martin Eran-Tasker Technical Director Association of Asia Pacific Airlines 10h COSCAP-NA Steering Committee Guilin, China 13-15 April 2010

Overview

• Asia Pacific aviation
• Current challenges
• Safety
• AAPA efforts

AAPA Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

• Regional trade association
• Current members include 15 major

international airlines based in Asia Pacific

• Open to all scheduled international

airlines based in Asia Pacific region

• Committed to promoting sustainable

growth of the aviation industry serving both passenger and freight needs

• Permanent secretariat headquartered in

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

• Representation in Washington and

Brussels

always open to new members

• Diverse geographic region
• Home to 4 billion people
• 62% of the world’s population
• Generates 27% of global GDP
• Wide range of income levels
• Dynamic economies leading the

global recovery

• Aviation widely recognised as a key

contributor to economic and social development

Asia Pacific

Asia Pacific Aviation

Data: 2009 Estimate Source: Combined AAPA + non-AAPA airlines GMT+5 to GMT+12

US$ 128 billion revenue 647 million passengers 421 million domestic 226 million international 15 million tonnes of cargo 4,300 aircraft

Asia Pacific carriers overall market share: 29% of global passenger traffic 40% of global cargo traffic

Improving global economic outlook, led by developing Asian economies

• Rebuilding damaged balanced sheets, working towards

profitability

• Aviation projected to lose in 2009 USD 9.4b with USD

2.8b in 2010

• Fuel price remains volatile
• Future aviation growth cautiously optimistic

Airlines response to the downturn

• Trimmed route networks and capacity in response to

lower demand

• Implemented wide range of measures to reduce staff

costs, retrenchment as a last resort

• Reduced utilisation, grounded surplus aircraft, some

deferrals of new deliveries

• Conserve cash, strengthen balance sheet
• Working with industry partners to reduce unnecessary

costs

Airlines focused on survival whilst preserving ability to respond to the upturn

Future growth postponed

Significant implications for investment and capacity management, throughout the value chain

Loss of two years of previously anticipated growth

Source: IATA

Long term growth prospects still bright

Source: Airbus

Asia Pacific’s share of world traffic will keep on growing

Safety

Asia Pacific: regulatory perspectives

• Diverse region: multiple governments and regulators
• Need for multilateral cooperation
• Harmonisation is more about sharing best practices

before legislating, not about resolving differences after unilaterally imposed regulations

• Positive bias towards consensus, but sometimes slows

the process

• Institutional framework remains fragmented, although

APEC and ASEAN do touch on aviation policy issues

Asia Pacific still lacks bloc negotiating power

Safety

• ICAO Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme
• Low regional compliance to ICAO Annexes
• FAA International Aviation Safety Assessment Programme
• Downgrade to Cat 2 – Indonesia & Philippines
• Others under consideration
• EC Safety Assessment of Foreign Aircraft (SAFA)
• EU Operational ban – “Blacklisting”
• Increase in regional ramp inspections
• Safety Management Systems – Jan 09
• Media reporting and perceptions

• One of the safest years in aviation history
• One major accident for every two million flights
• 25% fewer than the average for recent years
• One third involved freighter aircraft
• One third occurred during the approach and landing

phase

• One quarter were due to runway over-runs
• Only one major accident involving a carrier based in the

Asia Pacific region

Observations: Safety Performance in 2009

Aviation Safety – Media Focus

Global Safety Performance Review

Industry Safety Record Western-built jet aircraft

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* Major Accidents 18 18 15 14 17 12 2 Accident Rate^ 0.78 0.76 0.61 0.52 0.63 0.46

• Fatal Accidents

5 8 8 7 10 9 1 Fatalities 235 757 549 576 396 414 90

^ per million sectors * Year to date 5 April

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Major Accident Rates (per mil sectors)

Western-built Jet Aircraft Major Accident Rates

by Operator Region 2001 - 2009 3-year moving averages World IATA North America Europe Asia Pacific AAPA

Safety performance – by operator region

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Major Accident Rates (per mil sectors)

Western-built Jet Aircraft Major Accident Rates

Asia Pacific Regional Breakdown 2001- 2009 3-year moving averages Asia Pacific total AAPA P.R. China India Others

Safety performance – ASPAC region

AAPA Efforts

AAPA Safety Strategy

• Enhance safety in the Asia Pacific region

–

senior management commitment, SMS, cost-effective training packages/technology, just culture, language proficiency, avoid duplication

• Engage regulators and industry safety stakeholders

–

Encourage effective oversight, support the establishment of a regional safety regulatory body, forums and dialogue sessions

–

Encourage effective and timely safety investigations

• Safety data management and analysis

–

Develop key safety performance indicators, analytical tools, threat and error management, and risk management assessment tools

• Communicate on regional safety performance and action plans

–

Act as a regional safety spokesman and offer a regional viewpoint

AAPA Safety Focus

• Flight Operations Safety Working Group
• Meets twice per year
• Comprises Heads of Safety
• Open door policy to ASPAC carriers
• Data sharing, lessons learnt , review of incidents and

causal factors

• Cabin Safety Task Force - new
• Safety Management Systems implementation
• Safety surveys
• Regional risk assessment

AAPA Safety Focus 2009/2010

• Wildlife hazards
• Cost industry USD 1.5b per annum
• Problematic airports – DEL – PEN – SGN –BKK
• Need for a regional forum
• TCAS RA
• Ground safety
• Runway Safety - Need for a regional forum
• Developing a “Just culture” implementation best

practice document

• Safety Performance indicators
• Asia Pacific Aviation Safety Seminar 29-30 Sep 2010
• Venue – Manila - Host Philippines Airlines

AAPA Projects

Safety Performance Indicators

• Better manage operational safety performance and

reduce associated costs

• Identify, document, and measure “leading edge”

safety performance metrics

• Proactive methodology to enable timely identification
• f escalating risk
• Safety performance management tool
• Applicable to all SMS Stakeholder organizations
• Safety Performance Indicators pilot
• Philippine Airlines + 1

Finally

Aviation remains the safest mode

• f transportation
• Aviation is at the heart of global economic development
• Asia Pacific aviation maintains a very good safety record
• Need to strengthen regional safety oversight and make better

use of available regulatory resources

• Acceptable levels of safety performance can only be achieved

through transparency, collaboration and cooperation

• Asia Pacific carriers safety performance continues to improve

and is comparable to industry standards.

• Strong reservations about unilateral imposition of operational

bans on airlines, and effects of category downgrading of national authorities

www.aapairlines.org

Association of Asia Pacific Airlines 9/F Kompleks Antarabangsa Jalan Sultan Ismail Kuala Lumpur 50250 MALAYSIA Tel: +60 3 2145 5600 Fax: +60 3 2145 2500

Ground Safety

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Others Aircraft-to-Aircraft FOD Aircraft-to-Facilities Aircraft-to-GSE Loading Aircraft-to-Vehicles Number of Incidents Types

Ground Incidents by Type

(33rd vs 34th FOSWG) Jul - Dec 2009 Jan - Jun 2009

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 DEL SFO JNB BOM LAX MXP CDG AMS ANC FRA Incident Rates (per 1,000 sectors) Airport

Ground Incidents by Airport

TCAS - RA

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00

KUL HKG SIN TPE LAX SFO

Rates (per 1,000 sectors) FIR / Aerodrome

TCAS Incident Rates by FIR

Bird Hazards

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 SIN LHR BKK PVG PEN CGK HAN SGN TAO DEL Rates (per 1,000 sectors) Airports

Non-Damage Bird Strike Incident Rates by Airport

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 SIN KUL HKT FRA JFK Rates (per 1,000 sectors) Airports

Damage Bird Strike Incident Rates by Airport

Bird Hazards

• A number of airports in the region demonstrated

consistently high bird strike rate: DEL PEK MNL SGN BKK CGK PEN