A VIEW FROM THE REGISTRAR GENERAL Duncan Macniven Registrar - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A VIEW FROM THE REGISTRAR GENERAL Duncan Macniven Registrar General for Scotland General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

KEY DEMOGRAPHICS • Scotland’s population 5.078 million in mid-2004 – 21,000 higher than a year before • Peak of 5.24 million in 1974, gradual declining trend since then • Since 1997, natural decrease (of about 4,000 in 2003-04) • Migration, negative until early 90s, recently fluctuated around zero • In 2005, births highest since 1999 and deaths lowest ever • Some signs of positive net migration in last two years • So total population is projected to rise to 2019 (just over 5.1 million) before slowly declining, falling below 5 million in 2036 and reaching 4.86 million by 2044 General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

GEOGRAPHIC INEQUALITIES • Historic • 1994-2004 • 2004-2024 • Total population • Working age population General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

Larger urban areas (apart from Edinburgh) are declining, while there are increases around the bigger cities and many rural areas (apart from island areas) General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

POPULATION CHANGE 1994-2004 • Biggest losers: Eilean Siar, Inverclyde, Aberdeen City, Dundee City, Glasgow City • Biggest winners: West Lothian, East Lothian, Stirling • Winners include Highland, East Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

Natural change rates Natural change rates ( births minus deaths births minus deaths ( 1994- -2004 as a 2004 as a 1994 proportion of the 1994 proportion of the 1994 population) are a useful population) are a useful indicator when indicator when comparing natural comparing natural change between areas of change between areas of different sizes. different sizes. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

Net migration rates Net migration rates (here, the amount of net (here, the amount of net migration between 1994 migration between 1994 and 2004 as a and 2004 as a proportion of the 1994 proportion of the 1994 population) are a useful population) are a useful indicator when indicator when comparing migration comparing migration between areas of between areas of different sizes. different sizes. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

POPULATION CHANGE 1994-2004 • 10 Councils with negative natural change and negative migration – Eilean Siar – Aberdeen City, Angus, Dundee City – Glasgow City, West Dunbartonshire, Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, North and East Ayrshire • 3 Councils with positive natural change and positive migration – Aberdeenshire, East Renfrewshire, West Lothian General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

POPULATION CHANGE 1994-2004 • 13 Councils with negative natural change and positive migration – Rural north and west: Orkney Islands, Highland, Argyll & Bute – Rural south: Dumfries & Galloway, Scottish Borders – West Central Scotland: South Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire – Central Scotland: Falkirk, Stirling, Perth & Kinross – East Central Scotland: Edinburgh City, East Lothian, Fife General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

This shows the % population change varies across the Highland datazones 2001-2004 General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

LOOKING FORWARD • Basis of population projections General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

LOOKING FORWARD ‘Spirit’ said Scrooge … ‘Tell me if Tiny Tim will live.’ ‘I see a vacant seat’ replied the ghost, ‘in the poor chimney-corner, and a crutch without an owner, carefully preserved. If these shadows remain unaltered by the Future, the child will die.’ General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

Most councils adjacent, or close to, Edinburgh City are projected to increase in size whereas other large urban areas are projected to decline General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

POPULATION CHANGE 2004-2024 • Eastern winners: Aberdeenshire, Fife, West Lothian, Edinburgh City, East Lothian, Scottish Borders • Western losers: East Ayrshire, East Dunbartonshire, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, North Ayrshire, Renfrewshire, South Ayrshire, West Dunbartonshire • Eastern losers: Aberdeen City, Angus, Dundee City, Clackmannanshire, Midlothian • Western winners: East Renfrewshire, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

WORKING AGE POPULATION General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

% change -15 -10 10 -5 0 5 Eilean Siar Inverclyde Percentage change in population of working age East Dunbartonshire Aberdeen City Dundee City (16-59/64), Council area, 1994 - 2004 Angus Shetland Islands Renfrewshire. South Ayrshire West Dunbartonshire Dumfries & Galloway East Ayrshire Argyll & Bute information about Scotland's people General Register Office Moray S C O T L A N D North Ayrshire Council Area for Orkney Islands Midlothian South Lanarkshire Glasgow City Clackmannanshire North Lanarkshire SCOTLAND East Renfrewshire Highland Fife Scottish Borders Perth & Kinross Falkirk Aberdeenshire Stirling East Lothian Edinburgh, City of West Lothian

1 Includes the change in wom en's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 Percentage change -40 -30 -20 -10 10 20 30 0 Aberdeen City working age (16-59/64) 1 (2004-based),Council area, Eilean Siar Dundee City Projected percentage change in population of Shetland Islands Inverclyde East Renfrewshire Angus West North Ayrshire Dumfries & South Ayrshire 2004 - 2024 Clackmannanshire information about Scotland's people General Register Office Orkney Islands S C O T L A N D Midlothian for East Ayrshire Highland North Lanarkshire SCOTLAND Glasgow City Aberdeenshire Perth & Kinross East Renfrewshire Moray South Lanarkshire Argyll & Bute Stirling Fife Falkirk Scottish Borders Edinburgh, City of East Lothian West Lothian

WORKING AGE POPULATION • Significant changes in last 10 years • Variability, from Eilean Siar to West Lothian • Wider range of change in next 10 years • Biggest winners, past and future, Edinburgh and Lothians General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

CONCLUSIONS • Complex: not simply “north-south” or “east-west” split • Migration the key • Importance of forward planning, including by central government and local councils General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

A VIEW FROM THE REGISTRAR GENERAL Duncan Macniven Registrar General for Scotland General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people