A realistic view on the future of aviation Dont expect too much - PDF document

18-5-2018 A realistic view on the future of aviation Don’t expect too much Joris Melkert Faculty of Aerospace Engineering Content • Snowball effect in aviation • Developments so far • Supersonic aircraft • Electric aircraft • Alternative fuels • An airport in the North Sea • New configurations • Conclusion 1

18-5-2018 Snowball effect in aviation 1 kg more mass -> 1 kg more lift required lift is not for free - > more aerodynamic drag more drag -> more thrust more thrust -> bigger engines } -> more mass -> more fuel Snowball effect in aviation Quick estimate numerical value snowball factor Airbus A380: Maximum take-off weight 548,000 kg = 6.60 = Payload 83,000 kg 2

18-5-2018 Developments so far - spot the differences 1967 1987 2017 Sources: airliners.net, @zhangmx969, Shimin Gu Developments so far – fuel consumption Source: Lee, IEA 3

18-5-2018 Developments so far – fuel consumption 180 160 140 CO_2 emission (gramme/ seat ‐ km) 120 propeller (560 km) 100 short haul (900 ‐ 1200 km) 80 short haul (1900 km) medium haul (4000 ‐ 5560 km) 60 long haul (9300 ‐ 14100 km) 40 20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year of first flight Developments so far - noise 4

18-5-2018 Developments so far - manufacturers Developments so far - manufacturers 5

18-5-2018 Developments so far - airlines $6.94 $16.32 $4.96 - $1.50 $2.87 $4.96 Net profit per ticket Source: IATA Supersonic flight flight speed  M Mach number : speed of sound M < 0.8 subsonic aircraft 0.8 < M < 1.2 transsonic aircraft 1.2 < M < 4 supersonic aircraft M > 4 hypersonic “vehicles” 6

18-5-2018 Supersonic flight Supersonic flight 7

18-5-2018 Supersonic flight 1.6 1.4 1.2 drag coefficient 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Mach number Supersonic flight Bron: Aerion 8

18-5-2018 Supersonic flight Bron: Aerion Supersonic flight Bron: Aerion 9

18-5-2018 Supersonic flight Source: Medium Supersonic flight Source: EADS 10

18-5-2018 Supersonic flight Source: Lockheed Martin Supersonic flight Source: Avherald 11

18-5-2018 Supersonic flight Source: TU Delft Electric Aircraft Source: Pipistrel, Airbus 12

18-5-2018 Electric Aircraft Source: Pipistrel, Airbus Electric Aircraft Source: Pipistrel, Airbus 13

18-5-2018 Electric Aircraft Source: Hartzellprop.com Electric Aircraft 40 Jet A / Jet A-1 volumetric energy density 35 F-T kerosene Biodiesel 30 25 MJ/ liter Ethanol LNG 20 15 Methanol 10 Liquid hydrogen 5 Lithium Battery 0 0 50 100 150 gravimetric energy density MJ/ kg 14

18-5-2018 Electric Aircraft Electric flight will be there! However: - It will not be the next generation commercial aircraft - It will come via two routes 1. General aviation 2. Hybrid passenger aircraft Source: Hartzellprop.com Alternative fuels Source: KLM 15

18-5-2018 Electric Aircraft 40 Jet A / Jet A-1 volumetric energy density 35 F-T kerosene Biodiesel 30 25 MJ/ liter Ethanol LNG 20 15 Methanol 10 Liquid hydrogen 5 Lithium Battery 0 0 50 100 150 gravimetric energy density MJ/ kg Alternative fuels Cessna Citation II - P&W JT15Ds GTL 0-50% in two base fuels for ground testing GTL 0-90% in flight testing Area-averaged probe Measurement of ICAO LTO emissions by DLR Direct particle size and number 16

18-5-2018 Alternative fuels Alternative fuels Cessna Citation II - P&W JT15Ds GTL 0-50% in two base fuels for ground testing GTL 0-90% in flight testing Area-averaged probe Measurement of ICAO LTO emissions by DLR Direct particle size and Soot filters in undiluted sampling line number 17

18-5-2018 Alternative fuels Is hydrogen an option? Yes, you can use hydrogen in jet engines. But you will need some modifications. A better alternative would be to make use of hydrogen fuel cells and electric motors. Source: Olivier Cleynen An airport in the North Sea Source: tix.nl, By Wylkie Chan - Wylkie Chan, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11251117 18

18-5-2018 An airport in the North Sea Source: tix.nl, By Wylkie Chan - Wylkie Chan, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11251117 An airport in the North Sea Source: tix.nl, By Wylkie Chan - Wylkie Chan, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11251117 19

18-5-2018 An airport in the North Sea Source: Vlucht naar Voren An airport in the North Sea Source: kwaliteitsatlas.nl 20

18-5-2018 An airport in the North Sea Source: kwaliteitsatlas.nl An airport in the North Sea Source: kwaliteitsatlas.nl 21

18-5-2018 An airport in the North Sea Source: kwaliteitsatlas.nl Future developments on airports Ultra–green Highly customer oriented Highly time efficient Source: TU Delft 22

18-5-2018 Future developments on airports Efficiency & Airport Performance Resilience Optimization Responsible Innovation Safety & Security Emergency Airports Seamless door-to- Big Data door journeys Passenger Experience Biofuels Noise & Emissions Autonomous & electric vehicles Circular Economy Baggage Aircraft design & Propulsion Better Airport Regions Multimodal Transport systems New configurations Source: orbitalvector.com 23

18-5-2018 New configurations Source: DLR New configurations Source: NASA 24

18-5-2018 New configurations Source: theverge.com New configurations Source: Airbus 25

18-5-2018 New configurations Sources: GE, NASA, aerobuzz.fr,Entrevoisins, NLR New configurations Sources: NASA 26

18-5-2018 New configurations – quick change New configurations – quick change 27

18-5-2018 New configurations – quick change New configurations – quick change 28

18-5-2018 New configurations – quick change Source: Mets747, CNN, Airbus New configurations – quick change Source: blogs.wsj.com 29

18-5-2018 Conclusions There are no major quick changes to be expected We need more research and development We need to look into alternative “drop-in” fuels We need better procedures (Single European Sky) For more rapid changes we need stronger incentives (legislation + societal pressure) 30