A Quantum Leap in Investment Technology Rule No. 1: Neve ver lose - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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A Quantum Leap in Investment Technology Rule No. 1: Neve ver lose - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 07, 2024 258 likes •510 views

A Quantum Leap in Investment Technology Rule No. 1: Neve ver lose money. Rule No. 2: Dont forget rule No. 1. --Warren Buffett $18,000,000 $17,427,603 $17,000,000 In Portfol rtfolio io A, the manag nager er invests ts in 100 0 stocks

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SLIDE 1

A Quantum Leap in Investment Technology

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SLIDE 2

Rule No. 1: Neve ver lose money. Rule No. 2: Don’t forget rule No. 1.

  • -Warren Buffett
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SLIDE 3

$15,036,567 $17,427,603 $10,000,000 $11,000,000 $12,000,000 $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $16,000,000 $17,000,000 $18,000,000 Dec 2018 Dec 2019 Dec 2020 Dec 2021 Dec 2022 Dec 2023 Portfolio A Portfolio B

In Portfol rtfolio io A, the manag nager er invests ts in 100 0 stocks ks per year: r: 70 increa rease e by 25%; %; 30 decli line e by -30% 0% Avera erage ge rate te of return: rn: 8.5% 5% In Portfol rtfolio io B, the manager nager inves ests in 100 0 stocks cks per r year: r: 70 increa rease e by 25%; %; 25 decli line e by -24%; %; 5 increa rease e by 5% Avera erage ge rate te of return: rn: 11.75% 75% 5-yea ear r net differe erenc nce, e, per $10 0 milli lion

  • n: $2,391

91,036

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SLIDE 4

Big Losers of 2011

Symbol bol Company Date te at High High Price ice Price ice Risk Fin. Risk Low w Price ce Years rs Later ter Loss AIG America rican Int'l 2/8/ 8/2011 2011 $42. 2.37 37 87 87 57 57 $20 20.07 07 0.8 0.8

  • 53%

3% APA Apache he 4/29 29/2 /201 011 $133.3 33.37 7 39 39 34 34 $25 25.40 40 7.7

  • 81%

1% CRR Carb rbo

  • Ceramics

ics 7/25 25/2 /201 011 $180.2 80.25 100 6 $61. 1.00 1.3

  • 66%

6% CAT Cate terp rpill llar 4/29 29/2 /2011 011 $115 15.4 .41 1 67 67 23 23 $57.9 7.91 1 4.7

  • 50%

0% GLW Corn rnin ing 2/4/2 /2011 11 $23 23.37 37 27 27 9 $10. 0.88 8 1.8

  • 53%

3% DE DE Deere e & Co 4/4/20 /2011 $99 99.24 24 92 92 35 35 $61. 1.72 72 0.5 0.5

  • 38%

8% FCX Freepo eport-McM McMoR

  • Ran

1/12 12/2011 2011 $60 60.92 92 80 80 55 55 $3.74 74 5.0 5.0

  • 94%

JNPR Junip iper er Networ works ks 3/8/ 8/2011 2011 $44.46 46 84 84 61 61 $17.79 79 1.4

  • 60%

0% LM LM Legg g Mason

  • n

4/27/2 7/201 011 $37.5 7.53 90 90 67 67 $22 22.38 38 1.1

  • 40%

NTAP NetApp pp 2/11/ 11/2011 2011 $60 60.60 60 67 67 27 27 $21. 1.22 2 5.0 5.0

  • 65%

5% NEM Newmon

  • nt Mining

ng 11/7/ /7/2011 2011 $72. 2.13 13 21 21 25 25 $15. 5.56 6 3.8 3.8

  • 78%

8% OXY Occid ident ntal l Petro.

  • .

5/2/ 2/2011 2011 $111. 11.02 2 60 60 64 64 $65 65.78 78 0.4 0.4

  • 41%

SHLDQ Sears Hold ldin ings gs 2/16 16/20 /2011 11 $62 62.23 23 67 67 49 49 $0.16 16 7.9

  • 100

00% MOS Mosaic ic 2/14/20 14/2011 11 $89 89.06 06 41 41 12 12 $19. 9.39 9 6.6 6.6

  • 78%

8%

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SLIDE 5

Big Losers of 2012

Symbol bol Company Date te at High High Price ice Price ice Risk Fin. Risk Low w Price ce Years rs Later ter Loss CTL CTL CenturyL yLin ink 9/6/ 6/2012 2012 $42. 2.95 95 100 78 78 $11. 1.56 6 6.5 6.5

  • 73%

3% DLR Digit ital l Realt lty y Trust 7/30 30/2 /201 012 $78. 8.83 83 100 54 54 $45. 5.48 48 1.4

  • 42%

EXC Exelon lon 1/3/2 3/201 012 $42. 2.07 07 42 42 45 45 $25 25.46 46 3.9 3.9

  • 39%

9% FAST ST Fas aste tenal al 4/2/2 /2012 12 $54.65 4.65 98 98 20 20 $38 38.3 .37 7 0.2

  • 30%

0% GRPN Groupon pon 2/8/ 8/2012 2012 $24.5 4.58 100 21 21 $2.63 3 0.8 0.8

  • 89%

9% JCP JC Penney ey 2/9/ 9/2012 2012 $43. 3.13 13 77 77 58 58 $0.97 6.9 6.9

  • 98%

8% NUAN Nuance ce Comms. 2/9/ 9/2012 2012 $30 30.45 45 100 77 77 $13. 3.10 1.8

  • 57%

7% TPR TPR Tapestr pestry 3/26/ 26/201 012 $79. 9.03 03 89 89 46 46 $27.4 7.44 4 3.5 3.5

  • 65%

5% TDC Tera radata ta 9/6/ 6/2012 2012 $80 80.62 62 99 99 67 67 $22 22.60 60 3.4 3.4

  • 72%

2% ZNGA Zynga ga 3/2/ 2/2012 2012 $14.69 9 100 12 12 $2.10 10 0.7 0.7

  • 86%

6%

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SLIDE 6

Big Losers of 2013

Symbol bol Company Date te at High High Price ice Price ice Risk Fin. Risk Low w Price ce Years rs Later ter Loss CIT CIT Group 12/3 /31/2 1/201 013 $52 52.13 13 93 93 43 43 $25 25.65 65 2.1 2.1

  • 51%

1% DKS Dick's Sporti ting 12/3 /31/2 1/201 013 $58 58.10 10 77 77 33 33 $24.3 4.39 3.8 3.8

  • 58%

8% EMR Emer erson

  • n Electri

ctric 12/3 /30/2 0/201 013 $70. 0.26 26 90 90 29 29 $42. 2.29 29 2.1 2.1

  • 40%

FOSL SL Fossil il Group 8/6/ 6/20 2013 13 $126 26.5 .55 86 86 30 30 $5.6 .67 4.3

  • 96%

6% IBM Int'l l Bus. Machi hines es 3/15 15/20 /2013 13 $214.9 14.92 100 75 75 $117. 17.19 19 5.7 5.7

  • 46%

MDGL Madrig drigal l Pharma rma. 1/28/ 28/2013 2013 $14,345 45 96 96 70 70 $6.89 9 3.5 3.5

  • 100

00% MAT Mattel 12/3 /30/2 0/201 013 $47.82 82 90 90 43 43 $9.26 6 5

  • 81%

1% PCOA Pendr drell ell 7/12 12/20 /2013 13 $675, 75,000 00 93 93 43 43 $115 15,250 250 2.5 2.5

  • 83%

3% RL RL Ralph ph Lauren en 5/21 21/20 /2013 13 $189.5 89.56 90 90 7 $83 83.18 18 2.7 2.7

  • 56%

6% S Sprin int 12/2 /27/2 /2013 13 $10. 0.79 79 100 91 91 $2.45 45 2.1 2.1

  • 77%

77% TWTR Twit witter er 12/2 /26/2 6/201 013 $73. 3.31 31 100 15 15 $14.01 1 2.4 2.4

  • 81%

1%

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SLIDE 7

Big Losers of 2014

Symbol bol Company Date te at High High Price ice Price ice Risk Fin. Risk Low w Price ce Years rs Later ter Loss CRR Carb rbo

  • Ceramics

ics 7/3/2 3/2014 14 $149. 49.81 81 80 80 16 16 $2.95 5 4.5

  • 98%

8% CTRL Control4 l4 1/17/20 17/2014 14 $27.79 7.79 100 14 14 $6.83 3 2

  • 75%

5% DISH DISH Networ work 11/28 /28/2 /201 014 $79. 9.41 1 100 73 73 $23 23.98 98 4.1

  • 70%

0% KODK Eastm tman Kodak dak 1/8/2 8/201 014 $37.2 7.20 100 100 $2.3 .30 4.8

  • 94%

XOM Exxon

  • n Mobi

bil 6/23/ 23/201 014 $104. 04.38 38 62 62 60 60 $65 65.51 51 4.5

  • 37%

7% FOSL SL Fossil il Group 11/12 /12/20 /2014 14 $112 12.48 48 79 79 50 50 $5.67 3

  • 95%

5% GPS Gap 9/4/2 /2014 14 $46. 6.59 59 83 83 44 44 $17.09 9 1.7

  • 63%

3% HOG Harle rley-David idson

  • n

4/30 30/2 /201 014 $73. 3.94 94 58 58 29 29 $31. 1.91 1 4.7

  • 57%

7% HTZ Hertz tz Glob

  • bal

2/27/2 27/201 014 $115 15.01 01 100 71 71 $8.70 70 3.3 3.3

  • 92%

2% MRO Marat ratho hon Oil 8/29/ 29/201 014 $41.69 9 52 52 50 50 $6.73 73 1.5

  • 84%

MAXR Maxar Tech 12/3 /31/2 1/201 014 $81. 1.74 74 100 90 90 $4.92 92 4.1

  • 94%

ORCL Ora racle le 12/2 /23/2 3/201 014 $46. 6.01 01 91 91 69 69 $33 33.94 94 1.1

  • 26%

6% RAD Rite te Aid 6/4/2 /2014 14 $8.50 100 66 66 $0.71 71 4.8

  • 92%

2% SLB Schlumberger er 6/27/2 27/201 014 $117. 17.80 80 63 63 16 16 $35 35.19 19 4.5

  • 70%

0% VIA Viacom com 3/10 10/20 /2014 14 $88 88.94 94 100 82 82 $27.6 7.67 7 4.8

  • 69%

9% VMW Vmwa ware 4/1/2 /201 014 $111. 11.80 93 93 63 63 $43. 3.84 84 1.9

  • 61%

1% WYNN NN Wynn Resor

  • rts

3/4/2 /2014 14 $247 47.95 5 98 98 75 75 $51. 1.71 71 1.6

  • 79%

9%

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SLIDE 8

Big Losers of 2015

Symbol bol Company Date te at High High Price ice Price ice Risk Fin. Risk Low w Price ce Years rs Later ter Loss AGN Aller erga gan PLC 7/28 28/2 /201 015 $33 339. 9.50 100 82 82 $129.8 29.82 3.4 3.4

  • 62%

2% BHC Bausch h Healt lth 8/4/2 /2015 15 $25 259. 9.98 8 100 80 80 $8.51 1 1.7

  • 97%

7% BBBY Bed Bath & B Beyo yond nd 4/8/2 /2015 15 $77.68 68 87 87 51 51 $10. 0.62 2 3.7 3.7

  • 86%

6% CVS CVS Healt lth 7/29 29/2 /201 015 $113 13.45 .45 98 98 66 66 $52 52.3 .36 3.6

  • 54%

DBD Diebol bold d Nixdor dorf 11/6/ /6/2015 2015 $37.6 7.60 95 95 69 69 $2.49 49 3.2 3.2

  • 93%

3% FIT FitBit it 8/5/ 5/2015 2015 $51. 1.64 100 9 $4.33 33 3.2 3.2

  • 92%

2% HAIN Hain n Celestia ial 8/3/ 3/2015 2015 $67.6 7.68 97 97 63 63 $15. 5.49 49 3.4 3.4

  • 77%

77% LB LB L Brand nds 11/4 /4/2 /2015 15 $100.2 00.22 100 69 69 $24.5 4.59 3.1 3.1

  • 76%

6% SHLDQ Sears Hold ldin ings gs 5/28/ 28/201 015 $44.31 31 100 87 87 $0.16 16 3.6 3.6

  • 100

00% TEVA Teva Pharma. rma. 7/27/2 7/201 015 $72. 2.00 00 100 92 92 $11. 1.78 78 2.3 2.3

  • 84%
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SLIDE 9

Big Losers of 2016

Symbol bol Company Date te at High High Price ice Price ice Risk Fin. Risk Low w Price ce Years rs Later ter Loss BBBY Bed Bath & B Beyo yond nd 3/7/20 7/2016 16 $52 52.09 09 74 74 64 64 $10. 0.62 2 2.8 2.8

  • 80%

0% GME GME GameStop top Corp rp 4/27/2 7/201 016 $33 33.38 38 80 80 80 80 $10. 0.97 2.9 2.9

  • 67%

7% GE GE General ral Electric ctric 7/19 19/20 /2016 16 $32 32.93 93 97 97 70 70 $6.71 71 2.4 2.4

  • 80%

0% HTZ Hertz tz Glob

  • bal

al 7/26 26/2 /201 016 $52 52.6 .61 1 100 76 76 $8.70 .70 0.9

  • 84%

LB LB L Brand nds 1/1/2 1/201 016 $95 95.82 82 100 73 73 $24.5 4.59 3.0 3.0

  • 74%

LCI Lannet ett 1/1/2 1/201 016 $40. 0.12 12 100 84 84 $3.43 43 2.8 2.8

  • 91%

1% LC LC Lendin ingClu gClub 1/1/2 1/201 016 $11. 1.05 5 92 92 46 46 $2.54 3.0 3.0

  • 77%

77% MAT Mattel 4/1/2 /201 016 $34.2 4.26 98 98 66 66 $9.26 6 2.7 2.7

  • 73%

3% PRGO Perr rrig igo 1/26/ 26/2016 2016 $148. 48.94 94 100 84 84 $36 36.50 50 2.9 2.9

  • 75%

5% PBI Pitney ey Bowes wes 4/18/ 8/2016 2016 $21. 1.70 70 100 72 72 $5.66 6 2.7 2.7

  • 74%

RRC Range ge Resou

  • urce

ces 6/21 21/20 /2016 16 $46. 6.45 45 93 93 65 65 $10. 0.23 3 2.7 2.7

  • 78%

8% TEVA Teva Pharma rma. 1/1/2 1/201 016 $65 65.64 64 94 94 42 42 $11. 1.23 3 1.8

  • 83%

3%

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SLIDE 10

Big Losers of 2017

Symbol bol Company Date te at High High Price ice Price ice Risk Fin. Risk Low w Price ce Years rs Later ter Loss MO MO Altria ria Group 6/20/ 20/201 017 $77.33 33 100 94 94 $43. 3.33 33 1.6

  • 44%

44% CBS.A CBS 4/6/2 /2017 17 $70. 0.31 31 100 78 78 $43. 3.16 16 1.7

  • 39%

9% CELG Celgen gene 10/4 /4/20 /2017 17 $146. 46.52 52 100 68 68 $59 59.21 21 1.2

  • 60%

0% DISH DISH Network work 7/14/ 4/20 2017 17 $66 66.0 .00 100 94 94 $23 23.9 .98 1.4

  • 64%

GME GME GameStop top 1/1/2 1/201 017 $25 25.26 26 100 94 94 $10. 0.97 2.2 2.2

  • 57%

7% GE GE General ral Electric ctric 1/1/2 1/201 017 $31. 1.60 99 99 85 85 $6.71 71 1.9

  • 79%

9% KHC Kra raft t Heinz nz 2/17/20 17/2017 17 $96 96.65 65 100 92 92 $32 32.09 09 2

  • 67%

7% NWL Newe well ll Brand nds 6/16 16/20 /2017 17 $54.8 4.85 100 76 76 $15. 5.40 40 1.4

  • 72%

2% PCG PG&E 9/11/ 11/2017 2017 $71.56 6 96 96 76 76 $6.36 6 1.4

  • 91%

1% SLB Schlumberger er Ltd 1/1/2 1/201 017 $83 83.95 95 98 98 81 81 $35 35.19 19 2.0 2.0

  • 58%

8% SPB Spectrum trum 4/27/2 7/201 017 $124. 24.43 43 100 88 88 $41.68 8 1.7

  • 67%

7% KR KR The Kroger

  • ger Co

1/18 18/2017 2017 $34.9 4.91 1 91 91 70 70 $19. 9.94 0.7 0.7

  • 43%
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SLIDE 11

Big Losers of 2018

Symbol bol Company Date te at High High Price ice Price ice Risk Fin. Risk Low w Price ce Years rs Later ter Loss ABBV ABBV AbbVie bVie 1/26/ 26/2018 2018 $123.2 23.21 100 75 75 $77.14 14 1

  • 37%

7% AIG American Int‘l 1/25/ 25/2018 2018 $64.8 4.80 97 97 70 70 $36 36.59 59 0.9 0.9

  • 44%

44% AAPL Appl ple 10/3 /3/20 /2018 18 $23 232. 2.07 100 63 63 $142. 42.19 19 0.3 0.3

  • 39%

9% KHC Kra raft t Heinz nz 1/23/ 23/2018 2018 $80 80.27 27 100 88 88 $32 32.06 06 1.1

  • 60%

0% NCS NCI Buildi ding ng Sys 6/8/ 8/2018 2018 $23 23.00 00 97 97 65 65 $6.21 1 0.8 0.8

  • 73%

3% NVDA NVIDIA IA 10/1/ /1/2018 2018 $28 289. 9.36 6 100 2 $127. 27.08 08 0.2 0.2

  • 56%

6% BID Sothebys ebys 6/8/ 8/2018 2018 $59 59.67 67 86 86 57 57 $40. 0.93 93 0.8 0.8

  • 31%

1% VHI Valh lhi 4/26 26/2 /201 018 $8.79 79 92 92 35 35 $1.67 67 0.6 0.6

  • 81%

1% WTW Weigh ght Watch cher ers 6/20/ 20/201 018 $103.0 03.09 100 82 82 $20 20.36 36 0.7 0.7

  • 80%

0% ZFGN GN Zafgen gen 9/25/ 25/201 018 $12. 2.01 1 100 82 82 $3.00 0.5 0.5

  • 75%

5%

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SLIDE 12

Big Losers of 2019

Symbol bol Company Date te at High High Price ice Price ice Risk Fin. Risk Low w Price ce Years rs Later ter Loss CTL CTL CenturyL yLin ink 1/8/2 8/201 019 $16. 6.72 72 100 84 84 $12. 2.30 0.2 0.2

  • 19%

9% CVS CVS Healt lth 2/19 19/20 /2019 19 $69 69.88 88 100 92 92 $54. 4.47 47 0.2 0.2

  • 17%

HSIC Henry Schein 1/15 15/2019 2019 $81. 1.14 99 99 68 68 $60 60.22 22 0.2 0.2

  • 26%

6% IMGN Immunog

  • gen Inc

2/25 25/2 /2019 019 $5.9 .91 1 100 88 88 $2.5 .51 1 0.0

  • 58%

8% KHC Kra raft t Heinz nz 2/20/ 20/201 019 $48. 8.26 26 100 74 74 $32 32.06 06 0.1 0.1

  • 34%

M Macy cy's 1/9/2 9/201 019 $31. 1.72 72 80 80 41 41 $23 23.72 72 0.2 0.2

  • 20%

0% MAXR Maxar Tech 1/2/2 2/201 019 $12. 2.50 100 96 96 $5.32 2 0.2 0.2

  • 56%

6% NLS NLS Nautil ilus 1/17/20 17/2019 19 $11. 1.79 79 77 77 31 31 $6.12 12 0.1 0.1

  • 48%

NTGR Netg tgear ear 1/1/2 1/201 019 $52 52.03 03 82 82 58 58 $35 35.79 79 0.2 0.2

  • 31%

1% NWL Newe well ll Brands ds 2/4/2 /2019 19 $21. 1.75 75 100 61 61 $15. 5.58 8 0.2

  • 16%

6% TSLA Tesla la Inc 1/17/20 17/2019 19 $347 47.31 1 88 88 56 56 $276. 76.24 0.1 0.1

  • 20%

0% WTW Weigh ght Watch cher ers 1/2/2 2/201 019 $39 39.89 89 100 64 64 $20 20.36 36 0.2 0.2

  • 47%

ZFGN GN Zafgen gen 1/4/2 /201 019 $5.30 88 88 77 77 $3.00 0.2 0.2

  • 39%

9%

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SLIDE 13

Symbol bol Company Date te at Low Low w Price ce Price ice Risk Fin. Risk Sell Sell Pric ice Years rs Later ter Gain

AMZN ZN Amazon zon 1/27 27/2 /200 009 $48.4 .44 41 41 7 $1,9 ,944. 44.30 30 9.7 3,914% 4% AAPL PL Apple 4/17/2 /200 003 $0.94 94 5 13 13 $232. 2.07 07 15.5 .5 24,66 664% AAPL PL Apple 6/28/ 8/20 2013 $56.6 .65 15 15 2 $232. 2.07 07 5.3 310% ADSK Auto todesk 10/2 /27/1 /199 999 $4.28 28 7 14 14 $159. 9.94 94 19.3 .3 3,636 36% SAM Boston ton Beer 9/17/1 /199 999 $7.50 17 17 11 11 $294.9 4.95 19.0 .0 3,833 33% STZ Constellati ation Brands 4/8/ 8/199 992 $1.6 .61 7 17 17 $234.2 4.22 26.1 14,40 406% 6% DDS DDS Dillard rd's 11/2 /21/2 /200 008 $2.78 43 43 $97.51 51 9.6 3,408 08% IDXX Idexx xx Laborat atori ries 4/23/ 3/199 997 $2.50 50 3 2 $253. 3.48 21.4 .4 10,0 ,039 39% ISRG Intuiti tive Surg rgical al 3/2/ 2/20 2009 $28.44 .44 15 15 8 $561.1 .18 9.6 1,87 873% JBSS John B Sanfilippo 12/1 /19/ 9/20 2011 $7.23 21 21 $79.01 01 6.6 993% 993% LULU Lululemon Athleti tica a 3/9/ 9/20 2009 $2.25 25 9 $162. 2.49 49 9.6 7,138% 8% MSFT Micro rosoft 7/11/198 989 $0.37 37 28 28 12 12 $113.5 3.57 29.2 30,468 468% MSFT Microso rosoft 3/23/ 3/20 2004 04 $24.1 .15 30 30 4 $113. 3.57 57 14.5 370% NVDA Nvidia Corp 10/9 /9/2 /200 002 $1.6 .64 7 $289. 9.36 36 16.0 .0 17,568 68% RHT Red Hat 9/19/ 9/20 2001 01 $3.11 18 18 12 12 $180. 0.02 02 17.4 5,688 88% REGN Regene neron Pharm rma a 3/11/20 2009 09 $12.0 .05 21 21 14 14 $592. 2.40 6.4 4,816% 6% SIG Signet Jewelers 2/3/ 3/20 2009 $6.24 24 42 42 $150. 0.94 94 7.2 2,319% 9% SBUX Starb rbuc ucks ks Corp 9/17/1 /199 998 $1.8 .82 12 12 3 $70.84 84 20.4 3,783% 3% TSCO CO Tractor tor Supply 12/3 /31/20 2000 $0.13 8 $97.13 17.9 73,033 33%

Many compan anies es which ich have e risen en signi gnifi fican cantly tly were re once low

  • w-risk

risk. . ERS’s technology identifies safe companie anies at safe prices es with th exception ional al gro rowt wth potential ial.

slide-14
SLIDE 14

$3,371,64 1,648 $1,910, 10,829 829 $5,021,02 1,027 $0 $0 $1, $1,000 000,00 ,000 $2 $2,00 ,000,0 0,000 00 $3 $3,00 ,000,0 0,000 00 $4 $4,00 ,000,0 0,000 00 $5 $5,00 ,000,0 0,000 00 $6 $6,00 ,000,0 0,000 00 AMZN MZN AAPL WC WCG

Examine ERS’s Risk Score of WellCare = 4 Examine WellCare’s Performance = +4,921%

Appl ple CRI score: e: 11 Amaz azon

  • n CRI score:

e: 22 WellCa lCare CRI score: e: 4

slide-15
SLIDE 15

$2,891,858 $5,000 $10,000 $20,000 $40,000 $80,000 $160,000 $320,000 $640,000 $1,280,000 $2,560,000 $5,120,000 BKNG S&P 500

Booking Holdings: S&P 500: 28,819% 257%

10/9/02, /9/02, Bookin

  • king Holdings:

dings: Price ice Risk sk Indicator: icator: 25 Financial nancial Risk sk Indicator: icator: 19

slide-16
SLIDE 16

$1,837 37,82 ,820 $5 $5,00 ,000 $10 $10,00 ,000 $2 $20,0 0,000 00 $4 $40,0 0,000 00 $8 $80,0 0,000 00 $16 $160,0 0,000 00 $3 $320, 20,000 000 $6 $640, 40,000 000 $1, $1,280 280,00 ,000 $2 $2,56 ,560,0 0,000 00 Apple ple S&P 5 &P 500 00

Apple: 18,278% S&P 500 212% Price Risk 5 Financial Risk 12

slide-17
SLIDE 17

The only way to reduce the number and size of your losses is to avoid risky investments. The only way to avoid risky investments is to have a reliable system to ide

dentify fy & measu asure re inve vestme tment nt risks.

identifies & measures investment risks so you have fewer and smaller losses.

slide-18
SLIDE 18

The most profitable times to buy a stock are:

  • 1. When the company is financially strong and very liquid,
  • 2. When it has demonstrated a strong, growing need for its products,
  • 3. When management has demonstrated their capacity to prudently and

profitably manage the company, and

  • 4. When the company’s shares can be purchased at a bargain price.

ERS identifies companies which meet these criteria. Nimble investors have enjoyed exceptional profits by actively buying and selling such companies, rather than by being long- term holders. Even the strongest companies fall in price when valuation metrics indicate great risk. ERS distinguishes inguishes strong g compan anies ies from m we weak k compan anies es. ERS’s valuation metrics distinguish bargain prices from risky prices. The next slide demonstrates ERS’s value proposition.

slide-19
SLIDE 19

$0.25 $0.50 $1.00 $2.00 $4.00 $8.00 $16.00 $32.00 $64.00 $128.00

Micron Technology

2/9/16: $9.98 Price Risk: 5 12/9/14: $35.66 Price Risk: 62 11/23/12: $5.68 Price Risk: 7 3/9/09: $2.58 Price Risk: 18 11/21/08: $1.87 Price Risk: 25 9/19/06: $17.74 Price Risk: 37 5/3/05: $9.70 Price Risk: 12 2/13/03: $6.76 Price Risk: 39 7/14/00: $96.56 Price Risk: 41 5/25/99: $17.50 Price Risk: 72 7/31/96: $9.44 Price Risk: 7 9/13/95: $46.56 Price Risk: 38 1/17/90: $0.90 Price Risk: 0 2/26/19: $42.96 Price Risk: 28 12/24/18: $29.02 Price Risk: 13 5/30/18: $62.57 Price Risk: 44 8/7/97: $29.25 Price Risk: 35 9/2/84: $3.83 Price Risk: 100

slide-20
SLIDE 20

$0.50 $1.00 $2.00 $4.00 $8.00 $16.00 $32.00 $64.00

Urban an Outfitt itters

4/3/19: $31.96 Price Risk: 8 6/19/18: $45.34 Price Risk: 70 6/8/17: $16.35 Price Risk: 5 1/20/16: $20.95 Price Risk: 33 2/25/15: $38.83 Price Risk: 48 12/6/06: $24.26 Price Risk: 78 8/2/06: $14.30 Price Risk: 32 3/18/03: $3.12 Price Risk: 19 1/2/01: $1.02 Price Risk: 1

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Low Date te Low Price Price Risk High Date te High Price Gain 1/17/1990 $0.90 9/13/1995 $46.56 5,074% 4% 7/31/1996 $9.44 7 8/7/1997 $29.25 210% 5/3/2005 $9.70 12 12 9/19/2006 $17.74 83% 83% 11/21/2008 $1.87 25 25 12/9/2014 $35.66 1,80 807% 3/9/2009 $2.58 18 18 12/9/2014 $35.66 1,28 282% 2% 11/23/2012 $5.68 7 12/9/2014 $35.66 528% 528% 2/9/2016 $9.98 5 5/30/2018 $62.57 527% 12/24/2018 $29.02 13 13 2/26/2019 $42.96 48% High Date te High Price Price Risk Low Date te Low Price Loss 9/2/1984 $3.13 100 1/17/1990 $0.90

  • 71%

9/13/1995 $46.56 38 38 7/31/1996 $9.44

  • 80%

80% 7/14/2000 $96.56 41 41 2/13/2003 $6.76

  • 93%

93% 9/19/2006 $17.74 37 37 11/21/2008 $1.87

  • 89%

89% 2/17/2011 $11.80 31 31 10/26/2012 $5.47

  • 54%

12/9/2014 $35.66 62 62 2/9/2016 $9.98

  • 72%

5/30/2018 $62.57 44 44 12/24/2018 $29.02

  • 54%

ERS S - Indicat icatio ions ns of Pot

  • tent

ntial ial Gai ains ns ERS S - Indicat icatio ions ns of Pot

  • tent

ntial ial Loss sses

ERS’s technology measures and rates the financial and price risks of individual stocks. The tables below provides clear indications of how ERS’s technology helps advisors avoid losses and identify safer companies, at safer prices, that can produce very significant gains. Not all risky stocks fall greatly, but most do. Not all safer stocks rise greatly, but some do. By investing primarily in stocks which ERS identifies as much safer than average, investors will likely experience fewer losses, and their losses will be less severe.

slide-22
SLIDE 22

10% 13% 43% 43% 74% 75% 75% 78% 78% 90% 90% 100% 100% 100% 90% 90% 87% 87% 57% 57% 26% 26% 25% 25% 22% 22% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20 20% 40 40% 60 60% 80 80% 100 100% Highe hest st Ri Risk sk 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Lo Lowe west Ri Risk sk Proba robabilit bility of y of Gai Gain as as % Proba robabilit bility of y of Lo Loss ss as %

Based ed on long-term erm probabi bili lity ty studies, ies, ERS identi tifies ies the safes est t prices es to to buy any sto tock

  • ck. This

is re reduc uces s the e pro robabi bili lity ty of

  • verp

erpayin aying for a s stock ck and increase eases s the e pro robabi bilit lity of making g the highe hest st re retur urns ns on stocks. cks. This chart shows the probability of a gain or a loss for a stock based on the risk level indicated by ERS’s proprietary price risk metrics. This study finds the “safest” prices to pay for a stock, which have the highest probability of producing gains. The green en bars indicate icate the prob

  • babi

bili lity ty of gain in, and d the red bars indicat icate the prob

  • babil

ilit ity y of a loss. As the risk k metric ic improves es, the probabi bili lity ty of makin ing g a gain in can increas ease e very signi nifica icantl tly, to to 100% 0%, based ed on the past t .

slide-23
SLIDE 23

serves fiduciaries:

1. Price Risk Reports & Price Risk Alerts

  • Daily, weekly or monthly

2. Financial Risk Reports & Financial Risk Alerts

  • Daily, weekly or monthly

3. Custom Research

  • Identify the safest price for stocks that you like
  • Unique Equity Searches
  • The “safest” Income Stocks
  • Index Price Risk Ratings
  • Sector Financial & Price Risk Ratings
  • NVP studies and Risk & Price Trajectory Studies
  • Select any criteria, ERS will find what you’re looking for
  • Back-testing research models
  • “Best-Fit” metric studies for individual companies
  • Mutual Fund Risk Research
  • Find the “safest” stocks in any sector or market cap category
  • …and more; ask us, we’re here to help.
slide-24
SLIDE 24

ERS RS te tech chnolo

  • logy

gy is unequ equaled aled in provi viding ding Fi Finan anci cial al Risk Alerts ts years s before re a c company any fails ils. .

Aerop ropostal tale, , Inc. Agway ay Inc. Avaya aya holdings Bally Fitness Beechc hcraf aft Bethlehe hem m Ste teel Blockbus uster ter Boston ton Chicken Bro rooks kstone tone Caesar ars Ente tert. t. Chesap apeak ake Corp. Chiquita ta Brands Circ rcle K Circ rcuit City Color Tile Columbia a Gas Cumulus us Media Days ys Inns Delta a Air Dow Corning ng Eastman tman Ko Kodak ak Eddie Bauer Emerson Radio Enro ron eToys ys Formica ca Corp. Fruit of the Loom General ral Moto tors Global al Cro rossing ng Gre reat at Atlanti ntic Gre reyhoun yhound Lines Hartmar arx Hechinger Co High Voltage House of Fabrics cs Imperi rial al Sugar Inte terstat ate Bakeries ITT Educat ational nal Serv. Kaiser r Aluminu num Kinder r Care re Learni ning ng Kmart Lear Corp Lehman an Bro rothe hers Levitz z Furni nitur ure Loral Space ce Marvel Ente tertai tain. n. Mattr tress Firm Mayflower Gro roup up Memorex x Telex Morri rison Knudsen National al Gypsum um National al Ste teel Nortel tel Netwo works rks Northw hwest t Airlines NTL Comm. Orion Pictures Outboar ard Marine ne Owens ns Corning Pan Am Payless Cashways hways Peabody y Energ rgy PG&E &E Pilgrim’s Pride Polaroi roid Corp R.H. . Donne nelley RadioShac hack Refco Financ nce Relian ance ce Gro roup up Rockp kport Safelite te Glass Safety ty Kleen Sbarr rro Sea Contai ainers Sears Holdgs. Service Merc rch. h. Sharper r Image Singer Six Flags Sports ts Autho hority ty Sunbeam am Syms Texac aco Toys “R” Us Trans World Air Tribune ne Tweeter Home U.S. . Home UAL United ted Artists ts US Airways ways USG Corp Vlasic Foods W.R.

  • R. Grace

Wang Labs Wet Seal Winn-Di Dixi xie Wire reless One Worldcom Zale Corp. Zenith

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Ca Call ll Toda day y fo for a Fr a Free ee De Demon monstration stration

Thank k yo you. Ra Raymond mond M Mullaney aney

Fo Founder der & C CEO