A Policy Model for Diffusion of Electricity Saving Technologies - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Drivkraft for fremtidsrettede energiløsninger

A Policy Model for Diffusion of Electricity Saving Technologies

Even Bjørnstad and Sverre I. Heimdal Enova SF

The Norwegian Energy Sector

• Dominated by rich renewable energy

resources.

• Cheap hydro power has resulted in

– Electricity intensive industry structure – Electricity as the dominant space heating source

• World’s highest electricity consumption

per capita

• Challenge: How to build flexibility and

increase energy efficiency in a strong economy with moderate energy prices?

The Norwegian Energy Market with a Strategy Perspective

• Factor condition

– Reduced fear of shortage of supply – Challenges in some regions.

• Demand

– Energy use in residential sector marginally declining – Energy use in industry and service sectors increasing, but with less growth

• Structure and rivalry

– Energy prices will rise due to increased import/export capacity of electricity

• Related and supporting

– New building codes – Climate politics

Competition

• Input

Factors Demand Clusters

Enova SF tools to promote energy efficiency

• Industry

– Investment support

• Public and commercial buildings

– Investment support – Demonstration projects

• Households

– Information, Advice – Investment support

• Children and Youths

– Television and Schools – Internet

• Targets for Efficiency and Renewable

production are comparable to other European countries

Sales Air-to-air heat pumps 1993 - 2008

499 859 585 759 1195 1160 1648 1671 18974 65210 4637 32012 73301 51448 76832 32754

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 Year

• No. of units

Introduction of air to air heat pumps

• The 2003 exit

The 2003 governmental support scheme

The Enova SF toolbox and planned behaviour theory

Enova SF Marketing

• Awareness
• Social influence

Financial support

• Self efficacy

Energy Result

• Behaviour

Motivation

• Attitudes
• Intention

Facts

• Self efficacy

Consumer groups and technology diffusion

• Innovators (2,5 %)

– Technology enthusiasts, price not relevant

• Early adopters (13,5 %)

– Visionaries, strategic advantage

• Early majority (34 %)

– Peer reference, adopt with willingness

• Late majority (34 %)

– Sceptical, adopt out of necessity

• Laggards (16 %)

– Still using black and white TV Early market:

• Risk takers
• Frontrunners
• Strategic

Mainstream market:

• Risk averse
• Seeks references
• Driven by current problems
• Analytic

Early adopters should be supported to reduce uncertainty for mainstream market consumers

Residential sector: Diffusion of new technologies

The chasm

Main stream market Early market

III IV V II I

Making 2 mill. households to take actions

Time

Immature technologies Immature markets ”Exit-market”

Recommend Support Demonstrate

Highlight promising technology Develop markets Best available Build knowledge Competitions Support Financial support Marketing

Motivate / Communicate to initiate actions Advice / Trade fairs / Internet / Brochures / Magazine

{ Market } { Target } { Measure }

Building codes / Labelling / Appliance standards

Investment Support for Households

• Launched August 2006
• Supported technologies:

– Pellet stoves – Pellet boilers – Central control systems – Brine to water heat pumps – Air to water heat pumps – Solar collectors (From August 2008)

• Status May 2009:

– 32.000 applications – 10.000 projects completed

• There is filed a complaint against the support

scheme that is expected to be concluded by ESA in June or July 2009.

A shift for air to water heat pumps

Sales Air-to-water heatpumps 1993 - 2008

76 32 43 119 133 227 98 189 3318 388 3985 509 2383 523 119 655

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Year

• No. of units

The 2006 governmental support scheme

Public subsidies – must prices increase?

Supported air-to-air heat pumps 2003

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Des

Month Units installed

3800 4000 4200 4400 4600

Average grant [NOK]

Conclusions

• An Energy Agency should plan its initiatives in stages

– It’s easier to work with markets than against markets – The Agencies’ brand value may be good backing

• Consumers are not homogeneous

– Early adopters should be supported to reduce uncertainty for mainstream market consumers

• Crises may be helpful

– if they don’t last to long

• Entry and exit are essential

– Entry as a lightning from clear sky – Exit as smooth as possible

• Social marketing works