A FTER THE C OUP : E GYPTIAN P UBLIC O PINION IN THE S UMMER OF 2013 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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A FTER THE C OUP : E GYPTIAN P UBLIC O PINION IN THE S UMMER OF 2013 Alex Brezinski David Rae Sam Solomon American Association of Public Opinion Research May 17, 2014 P OLITICS AND P UBLIC O PINION IN E GYPT Role of the public has expanded

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AFTER THE COUP: EGYPTIAN PUBLIC OPINION IN THE SUMMER OF 2013

Alex Brezinski David Rae Sam Solomon American Association of Public Opinion Research May 17, 2014

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POLITICS AND PUBLIC OPINION IN EGYPT

 Role of the public has expanded in Egyptian politics  2011: 25 January Revolution  2012: Protests against SCAF, first presidential elections

and parliamentary elections

 2013: Protests against Morsi, protests in support of coup  2014: TBD  Even in current atmosphere, accurate measurement

  • f attitudes of the Egyptian public is critical

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EGYPT CATI PILOT

 CATI survey of the general public of Egypt,

among households with landline or mobile telephones

 1,001 adult Egyptian nationals, age 18+  Split into two phases to experiment with

methodology

 Phase 1: June 27 – July 1, 2013 (n=501)  Phase 2: July 5 – July 8, 2013 (n=500)  Opportune timing allows for pre- and post- July 3rd

coup comparisons

 Cross-national CATI allows for political surveys

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METHODOLOGY

 35 Arabic-speaking interviewers  List-assisted random digit dialing (RDD) to pulse

for working numbers

 Landline: list of known area codes and exchanges  Mobile: list of known mobile provider codes  Differences between Phase 1 and Phase 2  Mode distribution: 50/50 mobile to landline in Phase

1, 70/30 in Phase 2

 Gender matching: None in Phase 1, respondents

matched with interviewers of same gender in Phase 2

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KEY FINDINGS

 Majority support for coup  Optimism regarding security, economy  Attitudes about the direction the country is going  Attitudes towards leaders, parties, and

institutions related to coup

 Difference of proportions tests used in analysis  Complex sample design incorporated into test using

design effects for individual statistics

 Significance at p < 0.05

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WAS THIS A MILITARY COUP?

34% 64%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Yes No 6

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EGYPT DOES A 180° TURN

37% 67% 58% 30%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Pre Post

Do you think that conditions in Egypt are generally headed in the right direction or are they headed in the wrong direction?

Right Direction Wrong Direction 7

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SUPPORT FOR COUP, BEFORE AND AFTER

70% 25%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Good Bad Do you think it would be very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad, or very bad for Egypt if the armed forces took over for the current government?

73% 26%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Support Oppose Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the action by the armed forces to remove President Morsi from power? 8 Post Pre

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SUPPORT FOR COUP EXTENDS BEYOND MORSI’S REMOVAL

72% 65% 71% 27% 28% 15%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% The removal of President Morsi The suspension of the constitution The installation of the interim government Please tell me whether you have very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinions of the following actions. Favorable Unfavorable 9

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PERCEPTIONS OF CORRUPTION UNCHANGED

76% 70% 12% 15% 5% 8% 7% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Pre Post How serious of a problem is corruption in Egypt? Very serious problem Somewhat serious problem Not very serious problem Not a serious problem at all 10

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PERCEPTIONS OF SECURITY IMPROVE

46% 65% 52% 35%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Pre Post

How would you rate the security situation in Egypt?

Good Bad 11

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PERCEPTIONS OF ECONOMY IMPROVE

30% 55% 68% 44%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Pre Post

How would you rate the economic situation in Egypt?

Good Bad 12

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SLIDE 13
  • 5%
  • 15%
  • 13%
  • 23%
  • 70%
  • 50%
  • 30%
  • 10%

10% 30% 50% 70% Pre Post Pre Post Muhammad Morsi Hisham Qandil*

POLITICAL LEADERS (NET FAVORABILITY)

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POLITICAL LEADERS (NET FAVORABILITY)

  • 9%
  • 13%

+47% +51%

  • 70%
  • 50%
  • 30%
  • 10%

10% 30% 50% 70% Pre Post Pre Post Hosni Mubarak Omar Suleiman 14

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  • 28%
  • 5%
  • 16%
  • 7%
  • 5%

+18% +49% +68% +42% +63% +71%

  • 70%
  • 50%
  • 30%
  • 10%

10% 30% 50% 70% Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Mohammad El Baradei* Hamdeen Sabahi Amre Moussa* Pope Tawadros II Ahmed al- Tayeb Adly Mansour Abdel- Fattah al-Sisi Opposition Religious Leaders Coup Leaders

POLITICAL LEADERS (NET FAVORABILITY)

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POLITICAL LEADERS (NET FAVORABILITY)

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+10% +19% +4% +15%

  • 8%

+6%

  • 20%
  • 26%
  • 13%
  • 27%
  • 70%
  • 50%
  • 30%
  • 10%

10% 30% 50% 70% Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post The National Salvation Front Al-Nour Al-Watan The Muslim Brotherhood Freedom and Justice Party

POLITICAL PARTIES (NET FAVORABILITY)

17 Pro-Coup Anti-Coup

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+86% +78% +42% +56% +41% +54% +39% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post The armed forces* The judiciary The police The interim government

POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS (NET FAVORABILITY)

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DISCUSSION

 The July 3rd coup was indeed popular  Optimism regarding security and the economy

improve

 Attitudes towards direction the country is going  Support for coup associated with increased

favorability

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REFERENCES

“Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.” The Telegraph. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/10156681/Army-chief-Abdel-Fattah-al-Sisi- emerges-as-Egypts-strongman.html.

“Adly Mansour.” Al Jazeera. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/07/20137322150549685.html.

“Al-Nour Party.” Wikipedia. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Nour_Party.

“Al-Watan Party.” Wikipedia. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Watan_Party_(Egypt).

“Ahmed al-Tayeb.” BurNews. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://www.burnews.com/print/news/2013/11/26.

“Amr Moussa.” Al Watan Voice. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://www.alwatanvoice.com/arabic/category/73/110.html.

“Coup Press Conference.” Associated Press. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://bigstory.ap.org/article/egypt-turmoil-grows- army-deadline-expire

“Fireworks Over Tahrir Square.” Tru News. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://www.trunews.com/army-deploys- commandos-across-egypt-morsi-supporters-promise-bitter-fight-after-coup/

“Freedom and Justice Party.” Egyptians News. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://www.egyptian- news.com/2012_11_26_archive.html.

“Game Over.” The Star. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2013/07/02/egypt_president_morsi_defies_army_ultimatum_now_what.html.

“Hamdeen Sabahi.” Egyptian Society. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://www.egyptiansociety.org.uk/come-and-ask-mr- hamdeen-sabahi-the-presidential-candidate/.

“Hisham Qandil.” News24. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/Egypts-PM-focuses-on- economic-growth-20120910.

“Hosni Mubarak.” Wikipedia. Accessed 15 ay 2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hosni_Mubarak.

“It is Not a Coup.” BagNews. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://www.bagnewsnotes.com/2013/07/that-giant-laser- messaging-in-tahrir-square-its-not-a-coup/.

“Mohamed el-Baradei.” Wikipedia. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_ElBaradei.

“Muhammad Morsi.” Salon. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://www.salon.com/2012/12/23/whos_the_real_mohamed_morsi/.

“Muslim Brotherhood.” Wikipedia. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_brotherhood.

“National Salvation Front.” The Cairo Post. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://thecairopost.com/news/69475/news/divisions- inside-national-salvation-front-after-party-leader-departs.

“Omar Suleiman.” Al Jazeera. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/imagecache/318/480/mritems/Images/2011/2/6/20112621261118427_20.jpg.

“Pope Tawadros.” The Orthodox Church. Accessed 15 May 2014. http://theorthodoxchurch.info/main/egypts-pope- mourns-slain-copts-calls-for-wisdom-restraint/.

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