8 MIL ILLIO ION (AND DIG IGIT ITAL) AT 2056: MANAGIN ING GROWTH - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

8 MIL ILLIO ION (AND DIG IGIT ITAL) AT 2056: MANAGIN ING GROWTH IN IN OUR CIT ITIES – THE CASE OF SYDNEY

Dr Tim Williams Chief Executive, Committee for Sydney

My preso will be about

• Key global urban and economic trends
• What they mean for Australian cities, particularly Sydney
• Some reflections on digital innovation and urbanism: towards data driven and

responsive cities

• Advertising, information and IOT: convergence in our cities: now and direction of

travel

• If the future is about smaller homes, shared spaces and bigger lifestyles – and

Sydney much denser than it is at the moment – what might this mean for outside media?

• Will we see more tech based congestion management, new forms of transit , more

sharing of streets(more sharing of everything), and more use of Australian city centres at night: no ‘shared econonmy’ without a night time econ

• public realm management even more important: how to marry great tech, great

advertising and great city planning?

• Look at how Sadik-Khan and business worked together to transform Times Square

Great city planning and new promo tech

Google in pedestrianised Times Square (2014): more visitors than Disney

Digital media and public spaces

co production of this between private and public sectors

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Convergence of services/technology

regulating data driven responsive city: all singing/dancing bus stops

The future’s here

Adshel & Philips Newtown/ demo of web-enabled LED

:

The whole notion of PT changing

Bridj – tech enabled MicroTransit in Boston & Washington

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The internet of things and digital media

data analytics re consumers but also city users..

• Monit

itorin ing customer data through mobile apps: smartphones, tablets, etc

• All

ll consumer products as advertis isin ing media ia (Diageo’s bottles with personalised videos from gift-givers embedded in labels)

• Trackin

ing product fl flow to customers in production and distribution operations

• Dig

igit ital l sensors in products where business is conducted: in stores, branches, offices

• Wearable digital devices to track customer

usage of f products and services

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In the digital age

World cities are being talked of not just as locations of the ‘internet of things’ and data gathering but as…

In the digital age

In the digital age

In the digital age

Who is the Committee for Sydney?

• Independent champion for Greater Sydney, ‘challenging the city to be great’
• Evidence-based thought leader within Sydney but now also around cities

policy

• Representing diverse membership organisations

– public, private & not-for-profit sectors – broad range of industries – covering the geographic spread of Greater Sydney

Hope it’s already clear why we need Business Leadership Groups

• Overcome constraints which bind city authorities:

– Think beyond short term electoral cycles – Look beyond political geography / electoral boundaries – Members have experience in branding, sales, marketing, agenda setting, prioritizing – Strong bargaining position with central government as ‘customers’ rather than subordinates.

• Develop strategies and advocate for policies to enhance a city’s

competitiveness.

• Often work coll

llaborativ ively with local government and other city stakeholders

• More dynamic and proactive than traditional Chambers of Commerce.
• Concerned with making contributions to urban and metropolitan

development: governance , public transport and affordable housing current obsessions: data driven cities/IoT

• Not just a thinktank but a do-tank: Fintech Hub for example

Source: The Business of Cities Ltd

Cities matter

Most Aussie wealth is urban; most (sub)urban nation…

• 23 m now: 35 m in 20 years
• Sydney 6m in 15years ;8m in 40; Melbourne 8.1m :1.7% a year
• 1% of Australia’s landmass creates 80% of wealth: more urban economy than the US. 10% alone

comes from an area the size of Rottnest Island

• 30% more patents where job density doubles.
• Becoming more important in knowledge economy
• Business gets cities: and is clustering in fewer higher value locations/as business re-urbanises in

the post manufacturing era

• and people are voting with their feet for cities and city living globally – and here :though

focussing on certain places within cities

• Overall trend: ‘smaller homes, shared spaces, bigger lifestyles’.
• Sydney doing well at the moment :though Melbourne will be biggest
• But there are challenges : the externalities of growth which we find difficult to manage leading to

divisions: spatial, intergenerational, inner and suburbia and increasingly ethnic?

• Two Sydneys: older compact city near the sea/10ks of cbd: public transport; and newer/sprawl

city: basically Greater WS

• Feds begun to recognise this and new Fed policy emerging – and GSC in NSW

New National Approach to Cities

“Historically the federal government has had a limited engagement with cities, and yet that is where most Australians

• live. It is where the bulk of our economic growth can be found. We
• ften overlook the fact that liveable cities, efficient productive

cities, the environment of cities, are economic assets. Making sure

• ur cities and indeed our regional centres are wonderful places to

live should be a key priority of every level of government”.

• Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull

To cut to the chase - this is the way the world is going

To cities in the S and E, wealth shifting too: closer to a really nice neighborhood near us…

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Cities – where the world’s population and wealth going

2010 m metropoli litan popula lation

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2050 metropolitan population

Growth since 2000. Source: Brookings Global Metro Monitor (2015)

New patterns of growth and change

blue is the one to watch

The south is the north of 21stC...

A wealthier Australia in a booming south

grown 20% since 2008, surpass UK in 20 years

Pouring into a small number of very large cities

1% = 80% more than US

Very different model….

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Cities of low density: sprawl, dispersed suburbia = about 40% density of LA!

Will Sydney carry on with this model as we go from 4 to 8m? Up/out? Roads spread/PT agglomerates

Source: Bernard Salt, KPMG

Sydney growing twice as fast as London but Melbourne faster: will surpass

Source: Bernard Salt, KPMG

Source: Bernard Salt, KPMG

City economies are increasingly recognized as the heart of the national economic picture

Sydney’s GDP growth: 4% in 2014 Greater Sydney share of wealth rose to 23% and national FS exceeded contribution of mining: 30% of national growth in 2014/15 came from Sydney

One example of why cities matter to Australia

Sydney Financial Services alone = Mining in WA Bigger by value than HK and Singapore FS

So overall: competitive global cities

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Sydney overtaken by Amsterdam and Vienna since 2011

PwC Cities of Opportunity AT Kearney Global Cities Index MORI Global Power Index IESE Cities in Motion EIU City Competitive ness Index Average percentile score 1 London

1 1 1 1 2 2%

2 New York

2 2 2 2 1 4%

3 Paris

7 3 3 4 4 9%

4 Singapore

3 6 5 9 3 10%

5 Tokyo

14 4 4 7 6 16%

6 Hong Kong

10 5 7 17 4 17%

7 Amsterdam

4 25 9 5 17 22%

8 Seoul

15 11 6 3 20 23%

9 Vienna

• 18

10 6 25 25%

10 Sydney

9 15 12 27 15 28%

11 Toronto

5 13 16 36 12 28%

12 Melbourne

• 19
• 16

16 28%

13 Zurich

• 31

13 12 7 29%

14 Frankfurt

• 26

11 28 11 30%

15 Berlin

12 17 8 25 31 32%

16 San Francisco

6 22 21 21 13 32%

17 Los Angeles

13 6 14 41 19 33%

18 Chicago

11 7 27 18 9 33%

19 Boston

23 23 11 10 34%

20 Washington

10 30 19 8 36%

Melbourne has reached a new high Source: Greg Clark

City Projects

1 Singapore 409 2 London 334 3 Shanghai 245 4 Dubai 234 5 New York 169 6 Hong Kong 162 7 Sydney 125 8 Beijing 97 9 Bangalore 97 10 Tokyo 96 11 Dublin 91 12 Paris 90 13 San Francisco 90 14 Melbourne 88 15 São Paulo 87 16 Kuala Lumpur 69 17 Helsinki 68 18 Amsterdam 63 19 Mexico City 62 20 Toronto 62

Australian cities: very strong investment destinations

Global greenfield FDI 2014

Source: fDi Markets

Brisbane ranked 5th and Perth 16th globally for FDI Strategy

City

10 Munich 11 Sydney 16 Stockholm 17 Berlin 23 Melbourne 24 Hamburg 29 Toronto 37 Copenhagen 47 Brisbane 56 Stuttgart 57 Calgary 65 Perth 78 Montreal 86 Adelaide 90 Vancouver

Cross- border real estate investment

Source: JLL Global 300

Source: Greg Clark

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Where is the money going?

Top 20 cities for commercial real estate momentum, 2015

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

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Economic performance since 2000 among HQoL cities: Syd does better than Melbourne from 2011

Source: Brookings Institution (2015)

Arthur D Little Urban Mobility Index 4 Copenhagen 1 Helsinki 11 Munich 1 3 Berlin 3 6 Montreal 3 8 Toronto 4 6 Sydney 5 Melbourne IESE Cities in Motion, Transport, 2015 4 Copenhagen 9 Helsinki 10 Munich 15 Stockholm 17 Berlin 32 Oslo 35 Melbourne 63 Toronto 89 Vancouver 95 Sydney 111 Montreal 122 Ottawa

Based on traffic, subway provision, modal split, bike sharing, smart cards etc

Australian cities: weak transport and infrastructure platforms

Source: Greg Clark

Vertical fiscal imbalance – cities underfunded

with no metro self-Gov (although Sydney has GSC)

Sydney’s structural disadvantage

importance of effective job density, amenity and connectivity: jobs and homes not well connected but Sydney’s polycentric nature may become bonus

Source: SGS Economics & Planning

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Challenges: GDP is concentrated east of Parramatta already while population is growing west

Source: Pwc

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Knowledge economy jobs vs housing dispersal

Dis Dispe persed ho housi using & & job

• bs

mo model del (19 (1930-2001) Kno nowl wledg dge eco econo nomy agglomeration since 1990’s

Economic divide spatially linked to

• ther city KPIs: education….

The health divide is following the economic divide

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Two Sydneys?

• Dickens wrote his novel, A Tale of Two Cities, about London and Paris. A writer with similar

ambitions today could easily stay in one city and write a tale of two Sydneys.

• In one Sydney, people live within 10 kilometres of the city centre, where there is almost one

job for every resident, and public transport is close by and comes fairly frequently.

• The inner suburbs, which from 2006 have soaked up more than half the city’s overall

employment growth, stand in stark contrast to the Sydney more than 20 kilometres from the city centre.

• There are three jobs for every 10 western Sydney residents, compared to eight in 10 for

people in suburbs within 10 kilometres of the centre. Outer suburban jobs also pay much less: across the nation, an average of $56,000 a year compared to $77,000 for those near the centre.

• Yet today more than half of Sydney’s population lives more than 20 kilometres from the city
• centre. And it is this outer Sydney where most population growth is occurring. By 2030s a

majority of Sydney’s population will be west of Parramatta. The increasing separation between jobs and people in our large cities is Australia’s great new divide: the city of short and indeed walkable journeys v city of long commutes

The Great Inversion: global trend; human side of ‘agglomeration economics’

• 30 years ago : we thought US style doughnut syndrome with inner city

depopulating/losing jobs – now the economic driver

• ‘Who’d want to live downtown if they had a choice?’
• Now fastest growing population centres
• Market seeking smaller homes, shared spaces abut bigger lifestyles
• Time hungry
• Close to amenity/jobs/childcare for two graduate families.

Demographic shifts – population and migration

• Changing family structure; delayed marriage and fewer kids:

graduate women – two graduate households

• Quality of life is understood by young people without kids to mean

proximity to restaurants, retail, cultural and educational institutions and other urban amenities

• ‘they want a vibrant street life, historic neighbourhoods mixed with

new stuff, and public transit

• Within 5ks of CBDs
• Drop in driving / can’t text/ facebook/ access internet/ work and

drive

• Template for events/venue experience sought by this rising

demographic?

A new nexus between innovation and urbanism fitting new demography

• Place preferences of firms and people changing: the very link between

economy shaping and place-making: from suburban /exurban to urban centres where the talent wants to be in knowledge econ

• Innovation districts: cluster and connect leading edge anchor

institutions and innovative firms with supporting and spin off companies, mixed use housing and 21s century amenities and transport

• Walkable urbanism/thick labour markets :dense mixed use

neighbourhoods with cultural, recreational and retail amenities will attract highly educated, innovative, entrepreneurial individuals and benefit the neighbourhood’s existing residents: a new nexus between innovation and urbanism

• Venues mixed up /close to other stuff

Just as affluent young professionals seem to be staying in the inner-city longer, turning places such as Dalston (in Hackney) and Peckham (in Southwark) into hipster enclaves, so too are the outer suburbs getting poorer, as people who cannot afford inner-London rents are pushed further

• ut. By contrast, the places that have

gone downmarket are in Metroland— the 1920s and 1930s railway suburbs stretching west of Acton and Willesden or around Ilford. These are the middle-class suburbs where commuters move when they have

• children. But of late, house prices in

those parts of suburban London have stagnated, even as inner-London ones have soared ahead.

LONDON is turning inside out

It’s happening in Chicago and here..

Reinforced by: business has definitively rediscovered cities and is re-urbanising services

Sustainability / Eco-Cities

Siemens GE Arup Bombardier The ‘City of the Future’ Audi Deutsche Bank Microsoft Atkins GDF Suez

Liveability

Mercer Monocle Grosvenor Global Cities JP Morgan Aecom AT Kearney Smart Cities + Networks Cisco Ericsson IBM Cap Gemini Bird + Bird

City Brands

(Re)Urbanisation – Evidence

Australia

• 42 major tenants moved from suburban locations to Melbourne CBD

between 2008 and 2013 (JLL). UK

• 8/10 of Britain’s largest cities have seen private sector jobs become

more concentrated in city centres since 2008 (Centre for Cities).

• Cities with high proportions of Knowledge Intensive Business

Services (KIBS) jobs have experienced particularly strong re- urbanisation.

• Larger cities tend to have higher proportions of KIBS jobs e.g. London

– almost 50% jobs are KIBS.

• Examples
• Google, Amazon and LinkedIn: acquired major new premises in

central London

• BUPA, Jacobs (engineering): Business parks of Cheshire to

Manchester city centre

Distribution of Private Sector jobs in Milton Keynes, 2011 (Centre for Cities)

But externality challenges of agglomeration: the price of success

• High costs: housing, labour, goods, living
• Infrastructure investment demand
• Social cohesion and integration
• Two-tier labour market
• Sprawl
• Traffic congestion
• Pollution
• Opposition to growth model

Greater Metro coordin inatio ion requir ired

If that weren’t enough we now have this

What does this data driven digital/shared econ /IoT future/present mean for city management?

Early in to this #wethecity Issues Paper (2013)

Some examples: Kansas Smart City Corridor

more than just transit: city management

But…we can and must think like this re infrastructure and the internet of things with our Metro

• It hardly feels correct to call the Kansas City streetcar, a two-mile route that will
• pen in the spring of 2016, a transit project. But it will also be the spine of a body
• f LED sensitive streetlights , sensors, screens and wireless Internet. Future tram

users, walking at night, will watch as lights brighten at their arrival and fade behind

• them. A network of digital kiosks will serve as portals to listings for local businesses,

events, maps and transit arrival times. CityPost, the maker of those kiosks, will broadcast information to smartphone users in the vicinity — over a municipal WiFi

• network. Parking spot sensors will funnel information about empty spaces to an

app for drivers. Cameras mounted on lampposts will send tram drivers warnings about obstacles on the tracks. All sorts of mapping and analytics made possible by this ‘internet of things’: with the right city management to exploit it and leverage it fully.

• Welcome to the future, as envisioned by the technology systems giant Cisco: a

public sector Internet of Everything. Although there is a lot more to a Smart City than this implies: but it is great! 64

And then...Home of ‘Madame La Maire J’ai une idee’

Not just govt creating public services: co-production

• nline Waze: Community Based Traffic and Navigation

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ChicagoWorksforYou

Using 311 open-source data – allows citizens to track requests like Fed ex but also by ward/area

NYC 311: data analytics and platform for understanding your place/service and changing it: what does it mean?

Like I said, the future is here already just not evenly distributed Optimod’Lyon

I also love this: GoodSAM app

co-production of outcomes on shared digital platforms!

Big city analytics complemented by local data and responses Microsoft- HereHereNYC

Seoul – Sharing City

Bringing all types of the collaborative economy together

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Paris – smart shelters – JC Decaux

• Real time info beyond the bus:
• Map & neighbourhood information
• USB ports for charging

– Bike share stations nearby & number of available bikes – Municipality facilities nearby – Car share facilities nearby – Search engine

Nokia – smart cities & smart shelters

“Assuming that an ultra-broadband infrastructure is in place, the next step on the road to a smart community is to leverage the infrastructure to enable platforms that permit more things to be connected and smart. With these connected elements, the infrastructure can have a positive impact on public administration, citizens, visitors, and workers that make up the

• community. And, new business models can be created that

make a smart community economically sustainable and self- funding.” + harnessing the Internet of Things: sensors, surveillance – interactivity, safety features, real time mobility information

Nokia – the new bus shelter model

Tech trends changing how councils and government operate

• Open data
• Data analytics
• Online citizen engagement
• GIS

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• 1. Top-down Control Mechanisms

– Deliver efficiency through sensing, gathering and adjusting. – Apply to waste, water, energy, transport etc.

• 2. Public Information Tools and the Visible

City

– Combination of sensors, data and computing unlocks the city to all citizens.

• 3.Predictive Tools

– Intelligent data analytics to provide real time predictive services. – Includes: weather, crime, health, traffic etc.

Mechanisms & tools

• 4. Individual Control Mechanisms/Building

Management

– Control, monitor and automate smart homes. – Making homes more thoughtful, convenient and much safer

• 5. Mutual Support Tools

– Mobilising the under-utilised assets of the city through collaborative economy sharing. – Eg; Airbnb, peer-to-peer car share

• 6. Decision-making and Creativity Tools for City

Authorities

– Engaging with citizens in decision making and idea sharing. – Drawing on collective intelligence for smarter decisions. Eg: Better Reykjavik

Mechanisms & tools

• 7. Sharing Information/Horizontal Administrative

Coordination

– Smart cities can collect data from a range of sources; smart phone apps, social media, data collectors or city wide distributed sensors. – Sharing this information will enable horizontal administrative coordination

• 8. Smart Collective Action Tools

– Participatory citizen platforms. – Crowdfunding as a source of community action. – Collective action technologies now enable citizens to connect, discuss and develop community projects.

Mechanisms & tools

• 9. Smart Memory Tools

– Capturing a city’s experience, culture and memories. – Eg: HistoryPin, Talking Statues

• 10. Smart Future Visioning

– Drive innovation. – Invest in smart people, not just technology. – Combine the best of ‘top-down’ with ‘bottom- up’ approaches.

Mechanisms & tools

Renew Government: everyone wins

• Ultimately, when cities make data public, ask the right questions, and adopt

lessons from home-grown innovators, everybody wins.

• Local governments become more transparent and accountable to their

citizens, urban tech ecosystems grow, and taxpayers gain targeted and effective tools at their fingertips that hopefully make the complexities of the modern world easier to navigate.

• This

is is is n no lo longer ju just about websit ites o

• r

r socia ial l media ia; it it is is a about how technolo logy can break down tradit itio ional l sil ilos and create servic ices that are faster, cheaper and result lt in in b better r outcomes for cit itiz izens.

• Government as pla

latform: but a als lso communit ity a and busin iness as pla latform and part rtner

Councils should be more like lean start-ups

• With a financial model that isn’t sustainable, councils need to become more

li like start rtups, shri rinkin ing the b back offi fice and hir irin ing more technic icall lly skil ille led staff

• They need to enable frontline workers to focus on the important stuff, by

cutting down on travel time and paper work.

• And they need to radic

icall lly dis isru rupt their ir models ls of f servic ice-deli livery ry, movin ing away fr from sil iloed servic ices and shari ring data and resources across agencie ies and wit ith c communit itie ies/consumers/co producers to tackle le cross-cuttin ing chall llenges.

• Lean philosophy of rapid iteration and prototyping rather than over

specified and expensive procurement - and user centric design

• Procurement needs to change….radically

Procurement eats innovation for lunch

• PROCUREMENT SUCKS: fix it

– Or, , to put it it another way, th the means by which government buys and builds gadgets is is b broken. Government in the UK isn’t set up to acquire or make many of the neat tech tools taking the rest

• f

f th the worl rld by storm. . In In government-land, technology is is something th that generally ly comes pre- packaged and off th the shelf, , or r made by a known, oft ften quite la large, IT IT vendor. . Pro rocurement as a Barr rrier

• There is a profound mismatch between the current procurement rules and the best

ways to develop and deploy tech in cities

• These old practices block open ended experiments and innovative solutions that

blend multiple providers and open source tech

• Implementing smart cities hard because of procurement : convoluted processes

which require us to prescribe solutions in detail

• Compare that to the way that even the web’s biggest companies and most powerful

tools got their start. In many cases, curious geeks whip something up on the cheap and quickly push it out to see if other people like it

• We need a more exploratory approach to building software — “everything is sort of

a thesis”; this will bring in new suppliers and broaden the range of possible ways that government can innovate 83

Transport for NSW: developing trip app through cheap hackers

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The future’s here? Smart cities need smart governance

• It’s just not evenly distributed….
• That’s the challenge for Sydney
• To build on the best that’s happening globally
• Some barriers : smart cities need smart governance
• Fractured governance in Sydney: 41 councils and 9 on Parramatta Road

alone ; and NSW government silos:

• GSC a breakthrough?
• City Deals coming
• Amalgamations
• New forms of collaboration on new shared platforms between city

government/business/public: cities collaborate to compete!

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