5 th International Food Security Symposium University of Illinois, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ashok

• k G

Gulati ti

Infosys Chair Professor for Agriculture Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)

5th International Food Security Symposium University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign April 1-3, 2019

 Hunger within the overarching concept of

Food Security

 Institutions and Innovations- Past and

presently unfolding

 Political Economy of Food and Agri-Policies in

India and its implications

 Global Hunger Index (GHI) and India’s

challenge

 Not getting two square meals a day…  NSSO…hungry…those who slept without a

meal (<2%)

 But FAO’s food security concept:

• Sufficient Availability of Food
• Economic and physical access
• Absorption in terms of nutrition
• Stability of food systems

 Large

ge a and G Growing P g Populat ation:



1.35 billion in mid 2017, likely to surpass China by 2024 (1.44 billion), and touch 1.5 billion in 2030; 1.66 billion by 2050; and 1.52 billion by 2100; 65 percent of population currently below 35 years of age

 Fas

Fast growi wing G GDP DP:



Since economic reforms of 1991, GDP growth around 7 percent p.a, and likely to remain so by 2030;

 Urb

Urbaniza zatio ion:



from 380m in 2018 to 600m by 2030; need to build one Chicago each year till 2030…will put pressure on scarce land, water, energy and logistics

 Hig

igh e exp xpenditure o

• n f

food:



Avg HH exp on food 45% (NSSO, 2011); per capita income likely to grow at 5-6 percent p.a till 2030.

 Number of agri-holdings

more than doubled, from around 71 million in 1970- 71 to 145.7 million in 2015-16.

 Average holding size fallen

from 2.3 hectares in 1970- 71 to 1.1 in 2015-16.

 In 2015-16, 86% of

holdings were small and marginal (<2 ha) operating 47 percent area.

2. 2.29 29 2. 2.00 00 1. 1.84 84 1. 1.69 69 1. 1.55 55 1. 1.41 41 1. 1.33 33 1. 1.23 23 1. 1.15 15 1. 1.08 08

1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40

Aver erage Size of holdings (ha)

Sour urce ce- Agric icult ltura ral Censu sus s of Indi dia

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Percen entage e of asse sess ssed d blocks Over Exploited Critical Semi critical Safe Saline

 Paddock brothers (1966)…Famine 1975  IFPRI (1998): India will be importing 63 mt of

foodgrains by 2020

 Govt of India (2006) (Planning Commission)

projecting deficit of 10 mt by 2011-12

 Hans Binswanger (2012): 73 mt imports of

grains by 2039

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Import Export

26.5 7.8 13.5 6.0 42.4 37.8 2.6 15.9 24.3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 US$ Bn Trade surplus Agricultural Exports Agricultural Imports

Source: FTPA, MoCI

 How did India overcome food shortages in

the past?

 What is happening on food front in recent

years?

 What is likely to happen in future, say by

2030?

• Post introduction of HYV in 1966, very first wheat harvest in 1967-68 shot up by 45 percent from 10.4 MMT in 1966-

67 to 16.5 MMT in 1967-68. In Punjab (Seat of Green Revolution), production increased 2.5 MMT to 5.6 MMT between 1966-67 and 1971-72.

Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance (2016) Directorate of Economics and Statistics Department of Agriculture Cooperation and Farmers

All India wheat production

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Product ction ( (MMT) T) Period of Green Revolutio n 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Product ction ( (MMT) T) Period of Green Revolution in Punjab

Wheat production in Punjab

“From Ship to mouth” to Green Revolution: Wheat

(second largest producer, up from 6.5MMt in 1950-51 to 99.7 MMT in 2017- 18)

All India rice production

Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance (2016), Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Product ction ( (MMT) T) Period of Green Revolution 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Produc uction n (MMT MMT) Period of Green Revolution in Punjab

Rice production in Punjab

• IR8 from Philippines in 1966: Rice production increased by 24% from 30.4 MM
• In Punjab, it increased from 0.3 MMT to 0.9 MMT respectively between 1966-6

 Policy decision to import 18,000 tonnes of

HYV wheat (Lerma Rojo and Sonara-64) from Mexico; and IR-8 from IRRI

 Role of ICAR and SAUs, plus agri-extension  Critical Role of Pricing and procurement

institutions: APC and FCI came in existence in Jan 1965

• Operation Flood  Production soared from 20 MMT in 1970-71 to 30.4 MMT in 1979-80 to 44

MMT in 1985-86 and 69.1 MMT in 1995-96, a jump of 50 MMT in 25 years!

India’s White Revolution

largest producer at 176.4 MMT in 2017-18

(Innovations in institutions and technologies for small holders)

Source: NDDB FAO USDA Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics Department of Animal Husbandry Dairying & Fisheries (DoAHDF)

10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Product ction ( (MMT) T) Business as usual OF I OF II OF III

Compl plete De De-lice cens nsing ng

4. 4.2% 2% 3. 3.8% 8% 4. 4.7% 7% Vajapayee’s de-licensing Effect 0. 0.2% 2% 4. 4.6% 6% 6. 6.9% 9%

All India Egg and Poultry Meat production

• Production - Egg production from 1.83 billion in 1950-51 to 88.1 billion in 2016-17 (3rd largest)

and poultry meat production from 0.06 MMT in 1961-62 to 3.46 MMT in 2016-17 (5th largest);

• Consumption – From 400 grams and 25 eggs per person/year respectively to 3.35 kg and 69 per person/year from 1990-91

to 2016-17;

• Feed conversion ratio – From 2.2 to 1.6 (Broilers);; Egg laying capacity - From 200 to 320+ eggs per year (layers).

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1 2 3 4 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Eggs ( (Billio illion N Nos.) Poul ultry Me Meat (MMT MMT) Poultry Meat Eggs

• Liberalized grandparent

breeding stock imports

• Vertical integration &

contract farming

Source: Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics, Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying & Fisheries (DoAHDF), f

2 4 6 8 10 12 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Pro Production (M (MMT)

Source: Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics, DoAHD&F, Government of India

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Produc ucti tion (

• n (MMT)

2002: Policy decision to introduce Bt cotton in India

Source: USDA, 2017

Polit litical ical Economy y of POLICY CY SETT TTING NG

19 19

Indian agricultural policies have DUAL (but conflicting) aims

Farm rmers ensure remunerative prices Consumer ers

ensure access to food at affordable prices

Do Domestic ic market t regul ulations ns Tra rade de po polic licie ie s Fo Food d subs bsidi dies Budgetary ry payments nts (Input ut subs bsidi dies) Translati ting the the p pol

• licy s

sett tting i into numb nto numbers OECD Prod

• duc

ucer a and nd Cons

• nsumer S

Sup uppor

• rt E

t Esti tima mates me meth thod

• dol
• log
• gy

Result lt: I : India dia t taxes it its f farm rmers rs a and d heavily ily s subs bsidis idises it its consumers

20 20

www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

India “implicitly taxes” its agriculture…large input subsidies do not fully offset the effect of price-depressing policies (on average,

taxation amounted to 14 percent of gross farm receipts, 2000-01 to 2016-17)

• 5
• 5
• 7
• 15
• 15
• 18
• 31
• 24
• 12
• 19
• 26
• 22
• 29
• 13
• 2
• 4
• 32
• 28
• 24
• 20
• 16
• 12
• 8
• 4

4 8

• 160
• 140
• 120
• 100
• 80
• 60
• 40
• 20

20 40 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % PSE Budgetary transfers Market price support (MPS) % Producer Support Estimate (right scale) MPS and budgetary support,

Domestic and trade policies in place reduced Gross Farm Receipts by 6 % in 2014-16

21 21

www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Pro rodu ducer S r Suppo pport rt E Estim imate (PSE): : India dia t taxes it its farm rmers Consumer S r Suppo pport E Estim imate ( (CSE): :

India ia heav avily ily subsid idises it its consumers

How does India compare with OECD and other emerging economies?

Policies that depressed farm prices together with food subsidies reduced consumption expenditure by 25% on average across all commodities Negative PSE in India as producers receive prices below those on world markets

• 150
• 100
• 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PSE (billion dollar) OECD China India

 Innovations in policies, from higher MSPs or

highly subsidized inputs, and loan waivers to income/investment policies…beginning in 2019 (PM-KISAN) (Rythu Bandhu, KALIA, etc)

 Invest in R&D- marginal returns are 5 to 10

times higher than on subsidies…yet to realise

 Invest in Sustainable Agriculture- especially

taking care of Water resource, and saving on chemicals…yet to realise

Child Mortality (1/3) Child Undernutrition (1/3) Inadequate Food Supply (1/3) Undernourishment:

Share of the population that is undernourished (whose calorie intake is insufficient)

Under five Mortality Rate:

• The mortality rate of

children under the age of five Wasting (1/6); Stunting (1/6):

• Share of children under

age of five who have low weight for their height (child wasting)

• Share of children under

the age of five who have low height for their age (Stunting)

21 25 31 60 73 103 6.1 7.6 8.5 14.5 21.9 31.1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 20 40 60 80 100 120 Russia China Brazil South Africa Indonesia India GHI GHI S Scor

• re

GHI R Ranki king Ranking 2018 GHI Score 2018

 India likely to remain self-reliant on food at least

till 2030; after that a lot depends on incentive policies…

 But India real challenge now is not on food

adequacy but of nutrition, GHI heavily tilted towards that

 Our research shows that it needs massive

investments and fixing of sanitation (safe drinking water, toilets, etc) and women education

26/04/2019