INTERNATIONAL FOOD TRADE AND THE WORLD FOOD SECURITY Benot Daviron, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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INTERNATIONAL FOOD TRADE AND THE WORLD FOOD SECURITY Benot Daviron, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 29, 2023 128 likes •446 views

MAJOR PLAYERS OF THE INTERNATIONAL FOOD TRADE AND THE WORLD FOOD SECURITY Benot Daviron, Mathilde Douillet CIRAD Introduction Two standard hypothesis in the literature on international trade and food security (mainstream economics or

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MAJOR PLAYERS OF THE INTERNATIONAL FOOD TRADE AND THE WORLD FOOD SECURITY

Benoît Daviron, Mathilde Douillet CIRAD

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Introduction

  • Two standard hypothesis in the literature on

international trade and food security (mainstream economics or critical rural sociology):

– H1 : Some countries dominate international food markets (price makers) – H2 : A global food system connects producers and consumers at the world level through international prices

 Agricultural and trade policies of the dominant countries drive world food security Hope to solve part of the world food security with policy changes in the dominant countries

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Plan

1/ Are some countries dominating international food markets? (H1) 2/ How connected to international markets are undernourished people? (H2) 3/ Conclusions and perspectives

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Are some countries dominating international food markets?

Import side

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The asian shift

0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% 25,00% 30,00% 35,00% 40,00% 45,00% 50,00% 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Food Imports (% of world food import excluding intra EU trade)

Europa Asia

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15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% 40,0% 45,0% 50,0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

%

Food imports (% of world food imports intra-EU excluded)

EU+USA+Japan Developing Asia

The decline of the “North”

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The multiplicity of Asian importing countries

0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,00% 10,00% 12,00% 14,00% 16,00% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 %

Food imports (% of world imports excluding intra-EU trade)

S/E Asia Western Asia China Japan East Asia excluding China South Asia excluding India India

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The Chinese « relève »

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 1993-1995=100

Food Import Quantity Index, 1961-2010

China EU(15)ex.int Japan United States of America

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Japan, China and India : Composition of food imports by product groups; 2009-2011

Japan China India

Live animals other than animals of division 0,3% 0,4% 0,1% Meat and meat preparations 18,0% 4,4% 0,1% Dairy products and birds' eggs 2,5% 3,2% 1,1% Fish, crustaceans, molluscs and preparations thereof 22,4% 8,4% 0,4% Cereals and cereal preparations 13,0% 2,8% 0,8% Vegetables and fruits 12,1% 7,0% 24,1% Sugar, sugar preparations and honey 1,9% 2,5% 9,0% Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and manufactures thereof 5,4% 1,3% 4,1% Feedstuff for animals (excluding unmilled cereals) 6,2% 4,3% 1,1% Miscellaneous edible products and preparations 2,8% 3,2% 1,0% Beverages and tobacco 7,4% 5,8% 1,9% Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits 5,6% 40,1% 0,7% Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes 2,5% 16,5% 55,7%

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Are some countries dominating international food markets ?

Export side

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The Cairns Group victory

0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% 25,00% 30,00% 35,00% 40,00% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Non tropical food Exports (% of world exports excluding intra EU trade)

Cairns Group USA EU

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1990-1992 2009-2011 Three major exporting countries Market share

  • f the

leader Sum of their market share Three major exporting countries Market share of the leader Sum of their market share Corn USA, China, Argentina 69% 92% USA, Argentina, Brazil 36% 61% Rice Thailand, USA, Vietnam 33% 61% Thailand, Vietnam, India 23% 62% Wheat USA, UE, Canada 31% 72% USA, EU, Australia 21% 49% Oilseeds USA (soybean), Brazil (soybean), Argentina (soybean) 55% 76% USA (soybean), Brazil (soybean), Canada (rapeseed) 33% 76% Vegetable

  • il

Malaysia (palm), Argentina (soybean), Indonesia (palm) 32% 58% Indonesia (palm), Malaysia (palm), Argentina (soybean) 32% 68% Dairy products EU, New Zeeland, Australia 52% 74% EU, New Zeeland, USA 29% 61%

Supply dispersion : Main exporting countries 1990-92, 2009-11

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The US retreat

0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 1960/1961 1965/1966 1970/1971 1975/1976 1980/1981 1985/1986 1990/1991 1995/1996 2000/2001 2005/2006 2010/2011

Cereal : Stocks-to-Use Ratios

United States European Union

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2 4 6 8 10 12 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Million tons

Food aid all products, USA and EU

USA EU

The end of food aid

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How connected to international markets are undernourished people?

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Pragmatic approach

  • 1. Where are living undernourished people?
  • 2. How connected to international food markets are their

domestic food markets ?

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% of world undernourished population (2010-2012)

  • 1. Where are living undernourished people?

11 pays Asie 20 pays Afrique 5 pays Asie du S et de l'W 3 pays Amérique du Sud Haiti Autres pays Inde (25 %) Chine (18 %) Pakistan (4%) Ethiopie (4 %) RDC (4 %) 40 Countries (90%) (10 %)

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% of world undernourished population (2010-2012)

  • 1. Where are living undernourished people?

11 pays Asie 20 pays Afrique 5 pays Moyen Orient 3 pays Amérique du Sud Haiti Autres pays

45% 12% 51% 15% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Prevalence (2010- 2012) Inde (25 %) Chine (18 %) Pakistan (4%) Ethiopie (4 %) RDC (4 %) 40 countries (90%) (10 %)

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% of world undernourished population (2010-2012)

  • 1. Where are living undernourished people?

11 pays Asie 20 pays Afrique 5 pays Moyen Orient 3 pays Amérique du Sud Haiti Autres pays

45% 12% 51% 15% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Prevalence (2010- 2012)

0%

  • 1%

3%

  • 1%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4%

Rate of growth (1990-2012)

Inde (25 %) Chine (18 %) Pakistan (4%) Ethiopie (4 %) RDC (4 %) 40 countries (90%) (10 %)

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  • 2. How connected to international food markets

are their domestic food markets?

Exhaustive (almost) review of the literature dealing with food price transmission

  • Structural component
  • Political component
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  • 2. How connected to international food markets

are their domestic food markets?

  • Structural component:

– What are the products consumed in these countries? – How tradable are these products? – What is the cereal trade balance of these countries?

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Food availability structure (calories, FAO) Wheat Rice Maize Sorghum +millet Starchy roots

  • 10000
  • 8000
  • 6000
  • 4000
  • 2000

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Inde Chine Bangladesh Indonesie Philippines Birmanie RD Korée Vietnam Nepal Sri lanka Thailand RDC Ethiopie Sudan (former) Tanzanie Nigeria Kenya Uganda Mozambique Madagascar Burundi Somalie Zambie Angola Burkina faso Chad Côte d'ivoire Eritrea Malawi Zimbabwe Cameroon Pakistan Afghanistan Iraq Yemen Iran Brazil Colombia Guatemala Haiti

Cereal trade balance (FAO)

  • Structural component
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Food availability structure(calories, FAO) Wheat Rice Maize Sorghum +millet Starchy roots

  • 10000
  • 8000
  • 6000
  • 4000
  • 2000

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Inde Chine Bangladesh Indonesie Philippines Birmanie RD Korée Vietnam Nepal Sri lanka Thailand RDC Ethiopie Sudan (former) Tanzanie Nigeria Kenya Uganda Mozambique Madagascar Burundi Somalie Zambie Angola Burkina faso Chad Côte d'ivoire Eritrea Malawi Zimbabwe Cameroon Pakistan Afghanistan Iraq Yemen Iran Brazil Colombia Guatemala Haiti

Cereal trade balance (FAO)

  • Structural component
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Food availability structure (calories, FAO) Wheat Rice Maize Sorghum +millet Starchy roots

  • 10000
  • 8000
  • 6000
  • 4000
  • 2000

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Inde Chine Bangladesh Indonesie Philippines Birmanie RD Korée Vietnam Nepal Sri lanka Thailand RDC Ethiopie Sudan (former) Tanzanie Nigeria Kenya Uganda Mozambique Madagascar Burundi Somalie Zambie Angola Burkina faso Chad Côte d'ivoire Eritrea Malawi Zimbabwe Cameroon Pakistan Afghanistan Iraq Yemen Iran Brazil Colombia Guatemala Haiti

Cereal trade balance (FAO)

  • Structural component
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  • In relation to short term fluctuations
  • Trade measures (tariffs, quotas, embargo)
  • Fiscal measures (taxes, subsidies)
  • Other price regulation measures (public stocks)
  • Aid (financial, food, employment)
  • In relation to long term fluctuations
  • Agricultural Policy
  • Trade Policy
  • Monetary policy
  • Social safety net

Prevention Mitigation Prevention Mitigation

  • Political component: What are the policies implemented

by these countries governments?

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  • 2. How connected to international food markets

are their domestic food markets?

Different groups

  • Short term :

+ Poor countries and countries afflicted by war: Bangladesh (wheat), S W Asia

  • « Isolationnist » countries: India, China
  • Poor and landlocked countries dependent on non-

tradable products (many African countries)

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  • 2. How connected to international food markets

are their domestic food markets?

Different groups

  • Long term :

+ Countries opened to international trade (South Africa)

+ Net importing countries

  • Self-sufficient countries protecting their domestic

market (India, +/- China)

  • Exporting countries protecting their domestic market

(Pakistan for rice)

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Synthetic conclusion

  • In international food trade, dominant

countries able to control international food prices do not exist anymore

  • Food security of a large part of the world

undernourished population is independent of international prices but can be very dependent of the national food policy

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China

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India