towards global agribusiness 0'06 1-Where we are: Black Sea Grain - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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towards global agribusiness 0'06 1-Where we are: Black Sea Grain - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 20, 2024 189 likes •540 views

0'00 CERISY September, 23r, 2011 CIS countries A far East moving towards global agribusiness 0'06 1-Where we are: Black Sea Grain region 0'45 Kazakhstan 1'01 Kazakhstan corn belt Sky view over Pavlodar region 1'17 Kazakhstan

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CERISY September, 23r, 2011

CIS countries A “far East” moving towards global agribusiness

0'00

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1-Where we are: Black Sea Grain region

0'06

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Kazakhstan

0'45

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Kazakhstan corn belt Sky view over Pavlodar region

1'01

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Kazakhstan agriculture

  • 29,1 M ha of arable farm land

Of which 1,3 M ha under irrigation

  • 70% for husbandry is extensive
  • 20% of workers
  • From 7% to 15% of PDV
  • Average wheat yield from 1t/ha to 3,5t/ha

1'17

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La Russie

1'46

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Dry more than cold Russia

2'29

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Russian agriculture

  • Cultivated Farm land 220 M ha
  • Average grain production from 70 to 85 M mt
  • Grain consumption 72M mt
  • Average wheat yields 2.8t/ha

2'40

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... Ukraine ...

2'57

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Ukrainian agriculture

  • 38 M ha of farm land
  • 15 M rural inhabitants
  • Grain production from 38 to 56 M mt
  • Average wheat yield 3,02 t/ha

3'10

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2- Three independent countries with huge Agricultural potential

  • i- Farm land resources with high yield

potential

  • ii- Privilege geographical position close to

Middle and Far East markets through

  • ld but operational basic infrastructure

3'33 3'33

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Crop Land resources

3'55

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tc tcher herno nozem em

  • Deep soils
  • High water reserve
  • High mineral content
  • Structural stability

4'07

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Large Crop land resources & crop potential

cultivated Farm land Crop potential Crop land reserves Additional crop potential RUSSIA 220 M ha 120 Mt 400 M ha 150 Mt UKRAINE 38 M ha 80 Mt 4 M ha 20 Mt KAZAKHSTAN 30 M ha 30Mt 15 M ha 40 Mt BLACK SEA GRAIN MARKET 290 M ha 230 M t 420 M ha 210 Mt

4'58

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Finlande Iran Kazakhstan Mongolie Chine Océan Pacifique Sibérie

Moscou Rostov

Transport & export facilities

Méditerranée Chine/Corée Japon Europe Amérique Japon voie nord 1 2 3 4 5

M SP V

6

A N R O

Mer blanche

1

Dniepr

2

Don

3

Volga

4

Canal Volga - Don

5

Canal Volga - golfe de Finlande et mer Blanche Drainent l’essentiel du bassin de production

6

Axe du transsibérien

A = Astrakhan M = Mourmaryk SP = Saint Peters bourg R = Rostow sur le Don N = Novorossisk O = Odessa V = Vladivostok

5'29

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6'43

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7'00

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7'10

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From

distant hinterland

to

Grain port Terminals

7'20

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Privatization of Agriculture “Land Payes” “Capital Payes”

7'46

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Family farms (Ukraine) subsidiary farms (Russia)

12'30 14'02

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Past collective farms

14'33

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14'58

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Result of Privatization & International Financial institutions

  • Enormous debts of past collective farms
  • Ag sector looses its 1st function, unable to

compete with Food cheap import

15'04

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1998 devaluation

  • Beginning of revival
  • 1st Agro holdings

– Vertical integration – Intensive techniques from US & South America – Minimal investments – No subsidy – Legal State support

16'38

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18'46

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18'56

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2008 New financial crisis

  • Growth of large Holdings
  • Use of IPO’s for capital restructuring
  • Mironovski

30 000 ha 180 000 ha 500 000 t poultry Avangard 600 000 ha 3,5 billions eggs Mriya 5000 350 000 ha 200 000t sugar a.s.o.

19'03

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Yield e Yield evolution

  • lution

crop Average yield in Ukraine & Russia Average yield France Yields in Agroholdings Ukraine et Russie wheat 3,2 t/ha 7,6 t/ha 6 to 7 t/ha barley 2,5 t/ha 6,7 t/ha 5,5 to 6 t/ha corn 3,8 t/ha 9 to 10 t/ha 8 to 11 t/ha Sugar beet 24 t/ha 79 t/ha 50 to 60 t/ha

20'39

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Source : FAO

Russie Ukraine Australie

Brésil Argentine

Pologne Canada Inde Chine Etats-Unie France

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Rendements céréaliers moyens 1992-2001 (en quintaux/ha) Ecart-type par rapport À la moyenne 1992-2001

Instabilité des rendements céréaliers

21'08

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What’s going on ?

  • Land property versus Land lease

– Law adopted in Russia in 2001 – Moratorium in Ukraine , but new law is to be adopted before January 2012 – Lease only in Kazakhstan – Bu have most of Farmers enough capital?

21'28

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What’s going on ?

  • Market regulation

– Ukraine has joined WTO in 2008 – Russia declined several times – “Futures” are depending on finance market liquidity – Quotas, export taxes, retail food price control…

25'30

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What’s going on

  • Agribusiness is safer than pure speculation
  • Large offshore savings are to come back
  • Small family farms survive
  • Competition increases between large Agroholdings

and medium size enterprises

  • In the frame of large State corruption ? Or State

support to more efficient structures?

27'01

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What we do

  • EU has still no wording on Agribusiness
  • Private western groups try to develop on a

tough market, comparing two risks

– Settling down Versus – not settling down

30'22

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Merci pour votre attention

  • Thank you for attention
  • До побачення
  • До свидания