towards global agribusiness 0'06 1-Where we are: Black Sea Grain - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

0'00 CERISY September, 23r, 2011 CIS countries A “far East” moving towards global agribusiness

0'06 1-Where we are: Black Sea Grain region

0'45 Kazakhstan

1'01 Kazakhstan corn belt Sky view over Pavlodar region

1'17 Kazakhstan agriculture • 29,1 M ha of arable farm land Of which 1,3 M ha under irrigation • 70% for husbandry is extensive • 20% of workers • From 7% to 15% of PDV • Average wheat yield from 1t/ha to 3,5t/ha

1'46 La Russie

2'29 Dry more than cold Russia

2'40 Russian agriculture • Cultivated Farm land 220 M ha • Average grain production from 70 to 85 M mt • Grain consumption 72M mt • Average wheat yields 2.8t/ha

2'57 ... Ukraine ...

3'10 Ukrainian agriculture • 38 M ha of farm land • 15 M rural inhabitants • Grain production from 38 to 56 M mt • Average wheat yield 3,02 t/ha

3'33 3'33 2- Three independent countries with huge Agricultural potential • i- Farm land resources with high yield potential • ii- Privilege geographical position close to Middle and Far East markets through old but operational basic infrastructure

3'55 Crop Land resources

4'07 tc tcher herno nozem em  Deep soils  High water reserve  High mineral content  Structural stability

4'58 Large Crop land resources & crop potential cultivated Farm land Crop land reserves Crop potential Additional crop potential RUSSIA 220 M ha 400 M ha 120 Mt 150 Mt UKRAINE 38 M ha 4 M ha 80 Mt 20 Mt KAZAKHSTAN 30 M ha 15 M ha 30Mt 40 Mt BLACK SEA GRAIN MARKET 290 M ha 420 M ha 230 M t 210 Mt

5'29 Europe Amérique Finlande M Japon SP voie nord Mer blanche 5 Moscou 1 2 3 O Rostov 4 Sibérie Océan R Pacifique N V Chine/Corée A Japon 6 Méditerranée Kazakhstan Chine Mongolie Iran 1 4 Dniepr Canal Volga - Don A = Astrakhan N = Novorossisk Drainent l’essentiel du 2 Canal Volga - golfe de Don M = Mourmaryk O = Odessa 5 bassin de production Finlande et mer Blanche 3 SP = Saint Peters bourg V = Vladivostok Volga 6 Axe du transsibérien R = Rostow sur le Don Transport & export facilities

6'43

7'00

7'10

From 7'20 distant hinterland to Grain port Terminals

Privatization of Agriculture 7'46 “Land Payes” “Capital Payes”

12'30 14'02 Family farms (Ukraine) subsidiary farms (Russia)

14'33 Past collective farms

14'58

15'04 Result of Privatization & International Financial institutions • Enormous debts of past collective farms • Ag sector looses its 1st function, unable to compete with Food cheap import

16'38 1998 devaluation • Beginning of revival • 1 st Agro holdings – Vertical integration – Intensive techniques from US & South America – Minimal investments – No subsidy – Legal State support

18'46

18'56

19'03 2008 New financial crisis • Growth of large Holdings • Use of IPO’s for capital restructuring • Mironovski 30 000 ha 180 000 ha 500 000 t poultry Avangard 0 600 000 ha 3,5 billions eggs Mriya 5000 350 000 ha 200 000t sugar a.s.o.

Yield e Yield evolution olution 20'39 crop Average Average Yields in yield yield Agroholdings France in Ukraine & Ukraine et Russia Russie wheat 3,2 t/ha 7,6 t/ha 6 to 7 t/ha barley 2,5 t/ha 6,7 t/ha 5,5 to 6 t/ha corn 3,8 t/ha 9 to 10 t/ha 8 to 11 t/ha Sugar 24 t/ha 79 t/ha 50 to 60 t/ha beet

21'08 Instabilité des rendements céréaliers Ecart-type par rapport À la moyenne 1992-2001 20 Ukraine Russie 18 16 Australie 14 Brésil Argentine Etats-Unie 12 Pologne 10 Canada Inde France 8 Chine 6 Rendements céréaliers moyens 1992-2001 (en quintaux/ha) 4 2 Source : FAO 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

21'28 What’s going on ? • Land property versus Land lease – Law adopted in Russia in 2001 – Moratorium in Ukraine , but new law is to be adopted before January 2012 – Lease only in Kazakhstan – Bu have most of Farmers enough capital?

25'30 What’s going on ? • Market regulation – Ukraine has joined WTO in 2008 – Russia declined several times – “Futures” are depending on finance market liquidity – Quotas, export taxes, retail food price control…

27'01 What’s going on • Agribusiness is safer than pure speculation • Large offshore savings are to come back • Small family farms survive • Competition increases between large Agroholdings and medium size enterprises • In the frame of large State corruption ? Or State support to more efficient structures?

30'22 What we do • EU has still no wording on Agribusiness • Private western groups try to develop on a tough market, comparing two risks – Settling down Versus – not settling down

Merci pour votre attention • Thank you for attention • До побачення • До свидания