PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION
PRIVATE & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
PRIVATE & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION
Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.
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Source: Ambit Capital
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“Which company’s stock should I buy?” “For how long should I hold this stock?”
Type 1:
Volatile earnings (could be due to external or internal factors)
Type 2:
Consistent earnings
Type 1:
Time it well
Type 2:
Forever (as long as its competitive strengths sustain)
Source: Bloomberg, Company, Ambit Capital
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1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year Upper Bound of 95% 96% 49% 38% 36% 33% Median 21% 23% 23% 23% 24% Mean 28% 24% 24% 24% 24% Lower Bound of 95%
- 41%
0% 10% 11% 15% 28% 24% 24% 24% 24%
- 60%
- 40%
- 20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Shareholder returns for 95% confidence interval (CAGR %)
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Grey = Sensex Red = Coffee Can Blue = 10 yr Govt bond Bubble size = Holding period
Worst quadrant – high risk and low return Best quadrant – low risk and high return
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Stock delivered positive returns while Sensex was negative Stock delivered negative returns while Sensex was positive
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NEGATIVE RETURNS POSITIVE RETURNS FY98 FY05 FY07 FY08 FY94 FY97 FY11 FY00 FY95 FY99 FY14 FY04 FY93 FY03 FY02 FY96 FY17 FY06 FY09 FY01 FY12 FY16 FY13 FY18 FY15 FY10 Less than
- 30%
- 20% to
- 30%
- 10% to
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0% to +10% +10% to +20% +20% to +30% More than +30% NEGATIVE RETURNS POSITIVE RETURNS FY94 FY95 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY10 FY11 FY93 FY03 FY12 FY13 FY96 FY01 FY08 FY97 FY14 FY15 FY07 FY02 FY09 FY18 FY16 FY17 <<
- 30%
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- 30%
- 10% to
- 20%
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0% to +10% +10% to +20% +20% to +30% >> +30% NEGATIVE RETURNS POSITIVE RETURNS FY94 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY95 FY06 FY93 FY96 FY05 FY08 FY03 FY98 FY11 FY10 FY97 FY16 FY07 FY12 FY13 FY09 FY99 FY01 FY18 FY14 FY17 FY15 <<
- 30%
- 20% to
- 30%
- 10% to
- 20%
0% to
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0% to +10% +10% to +20% +20% to +30% >> +30% NEGATIVE RETURNS POSITIVE RETURNS FY97 FY98 FY00 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY07 FY15 FY99 FY02 FY12 FY11 FY17 FY09 FY01 FY03 FY16 FY14 FY13 FY18 <<
- 30%
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- 30%
- 10% to
- 20%
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0% to +10% +10% to +20% +20% to +30% >> +30%
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* Return for period starting July 2016 is absolute return till Feb 2017 ** Return from inception till Feb 2017 *** TSR = Total Shareholder Return which assumes that dividends received are reinvested
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Overview Business Verticals Global Partnerships
ASSET MANAGEMENT
- Portfolio Management Services
CORPORATE FINANCE
- Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) and Divestures
- Alternative Capital Raising
- Equity Capital Markets (ECM)
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES
- Differentiated research/Bespoke strategies
- Derivatives and Technical analysis
- Block Trading
PRIVATE WEALTH
- Proprietary Investment Products
- Open Architecture Model
- Asset Allocation, Tax and Estate Planning
SME FINANCE
- Small Business Loans
- Loans against Properties
STRUCTURED FINANCE
- Lending Solutions
- Loan Syndication
PRINCIPAL INVESTMENT
- Investing in high potential value discovery stories
- Small-Cap and Mid-Cap Public Companies
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Mean revert (42%) Remain in top quartile (35%) Remain in top quartile (36%) Mean revert (45%)
- Alpha of MFs for 1-year-rolling has shrunk
from 6.5% (pre 2010) to 3.2% (post 2010)
- Alpha of MFs for 10-year-rolling has shrunk
from 4.1% (pre 2010) to 0% (post 2010)
- Half of the top performing mutual funds
mean revert every 3 years
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