3353 Energydemandincity-regions-methods - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

EUROPEAN INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY RESEARCH ECEEE
Summer
Study
 1-6
June
2009
 EUROPÄISCHES INSTITUT FÜR ENERGIEFORSCHUNG EUROPÄISCHES INSTITUT FÜR ENERGIEFORSCHUNG INSTITUT EUROPEEN DE RECHERCHE SUR L’ENERGIE INSTITUT EUROPEEN DE RECHERCHE SUR L’ENERGIE EUROPEAN INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY RESEARCH EUROPEAN INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY RESEARCH 3353
 Energy
demand
in
city-regions
-
methods
 to
model
dynamics
of
spatial
energy
 consumption
 Sébastien
GIRARD,
Christian
KEIM,
Markus
PETER



Agenda
 Agenda
 Introduction to urbanisation and its dynamics Urbanisation and energy – scale and interaction – Scales of assessment and localisation – Localisation of energy demand – Dynamics of urban development – Modelling and simulating the time and spatial evolution of urban spaces Conclusion 2

Urbanisation
 Urbanisation
 3

Challenging
situation
 Challenging
situation
 4

Growing
urban
population
 Growing
urban
population
 National Bureau of Statistics of China (BVSC), 2006 United Nations Population Division (UNPD), 2006 5

6

Building
density

in
Ile
de
France
-
Paris
 Building
density

in
Ile
de
France
-
Paris
 7

Patterns
of
former
greenfield
development
 Patterns
of
former
greenfield
development
 8

9

Building
stock
 Building
stock
 10

Building
typologies
 Building
typologies
 Institut für Wohnen und Umwelt (IWU), Darmstadt 11

Energy
standards
 Energy
standards
 12

Life
cycle
analysis
of
buildings
 Life
cycle
analysis
of
buildings
 ressource consumption & impacts energetic refurbishment time (years) Use + maintenace Use + maintenace Use + maintenace new partial total deconstruction construction refurbishment refurbishment evolution of standards initial value use value end of life time lost resources time (years) 13 Kohler, N. (2003). Lebenszyklusanalyse im Planungsprozess von Gebäuden. Darmstadt.

Demolition
rates
 Demolition
rates
 Hassler, U. and N. Kohler (2004). Das Verschwinden der Bauten des Industriezeitalters: Lebenszyklen industrieller Baubesta¨nde und Methoden transdisziplinärer Forschung. Berlin, Wasmuth. 14

Survival
function
 Survival
function
 Bradley, P., E. K. N. Buergel-Goodwin, et al. (2005). "Survival functions of building stocks and components." 15

Localisation
/
Simulation
 Localisation
/
Simulation
 16

Modelling
and
simulation
 Modelling
and
simulation
 Demand and supply depend on various local characteristics Time and space simulation: land use evolution, interaction between components of the urban system Geographical Information Systems (GIS) Cellular automata Agent-based modelling (ABM) 17

CORINE
Land
Cover
(100
m*100
m)
 CORINE
Land
Cover
(100
m*100
m)
 18 18

Infoterra
LaND
25
(25
m*25m)
 Infoterra
LaND
25
(25
m*25m)
 19 19

Basics of spatial simulation 20

Energy
demand
mapping
 Energy
demand
mapping
 21 21

Energy
demand
mapping
 Energy
demand
mapping
 22 22

Energy
demand
mapping
 Energy
demand
mapping
 23 23

Localisation
 Localisation
 24

Sectoral
dynamics
 Sectoral
dynamics
 0 City 1 Habitation 2 Industry 3 Tertiary 4 Infrastructure energy about 30% about 30% about 10% about 30% consumption appropriate 500 – 1000 m 2 - 4 km 500 – 1000 m spatial scale time scale 30-60 years 5-30 years 5-30 years 50-100 years adaption slow fast fast slow process based on private based on global based on global based on political decisions decisions decisions decisions split private ownership “unified” ownership “unified” ownership 25

Energy
typology
of
urban
space
 Energy
typology
of
urban
space
 Initial situation: Classification / Typology Breakdown of demand Breakdown of end- complex urban system Energy demand per end-uses uses per energy carriers kWh/yr Objects kWh/yr Objects kWh/yr kWh/yr Objects Objects 26

Buildings
and
processes
 Buildings
and
processes
 100% 0% Industry Proc. Bldg. Tertiary Residential 0% 100% Energy demand 27

Constitution
and
sources
of
energy
typology
 Constitution
and
sources
of
energy
typology
 Building Existing Economic Specific typologies energy classifi- classifi- typologies cations cations Developed energy typology 28

Tool
development
 Tool
development
 Software resources: • AnyLogic: ABM, SD, DE, GIS impl. • NetLogo: ABM, GIS impl. 29

Conclusion Localisation of energy demand Methods of simulation on different scales Prognosis of urban development and resulting energy needs Integration to existing methods Communication to local authorities and spatial and energy planners 30

Thank you for your attention ! Contact: peter@eifer.org girard@eifer.org keim@eifer.org 31 EIFER 2009 / Infas

32

Cell
fuzziness
–
250x250
aggregation
 Cell
fuzziness
–
250x250
aggregation
 33

34

Integrated
urban
planning
 Integrated
urban
planning
 Local Planning Authority Energy Supply Company City Planner Energy Services City Architect Engineer Building Builder HVAC Planner Source: EIFER 2008 35

Dichte Dichteparameter als Grundlage für die Energienachfrage 36

CONSENS - Cooperative Networks for Sustainable Energy Solutions ´ Outlook - Simulation to predict urban development - Moduls of Visualisation - Complementary knowledge to urban development (EnyCity) - Communication to planners and local authorities - Basics for local energy planning 37

Life
cycle
model
of
urban
fragments
 Life
cycle
model
of
urban
fragments
 38

Introduction
to
urban
spaces
 Introduction
to
urban
spaces
 The infrastructure and building stock is one of the largest physical, economical and cultural capital of European societies. 39 39

Urban
dynamics
 Urban
dynamics
 • Main
questions
 Main
questions
 – Which
are
the
driving
forces
for
urban
transformation?
 – Which
are
the
resulting
energy
demands?
 – Which
data
are
usable
for
the
simulations?
 • Methods
 Methods
 – Regional
spatial
analysis
 – Model
of
the
transformation
of
building
stock
 – Possible
influences
of
transportation
 – Case-study
Metropolregion
Stuttgart
 – Definition
of
criteria
for
adaptation
and
classification
of
 existing
tools
 • Simulation
methods
 Simulation
methods
 – Develop
an
allocation
methodology
of
energy
demand
 (data
management,
spatial
statistics)
 – Create
a
simulation
and
visualization
methodology
in
a
 forecasting
approach
(Geosimulation)
 – Develop
a
tool
in
a
regional
energetic
and
urban
 planning
framework
 40

Agenda
 Agenda
 • Auswirkungen
der
Stadtentwicklung
auf
die
Energienachfrage
 41

Agenda
 Agenda
 • Auswirkungen
der
Stadtentwicklung
auf
die
Energienachfrage
 42

Research
scheme
 Research
scheme
 Views Content Methods buildings, job market, urban structure statistics, random sample, cluster analysis Scope of Building stocks Land use, fallow ground, infrastructure statistics, random sample, ALK, aerial view Product-modelling, building research, Type of buildings, infrastructures Composition of building history building stocks Building history, statistics, Construction technique, morphology production of building material Alternative model, history of buildings, Dynamic of one building Dynamic of renovation of buildings, survival functions Building stocks Building history, urban geography, Dynamic of building stocks survival functions, pattern analysis GIS, maps, plans, land register, ALK, Urban fragments, towns Localisation of aerial view Building stocks cluster analysis, satellit views, Building stocks historical research 43

Adressaten:
Levels
and

actors
 Adressaten:
Levels
and

actors
 owners, developers, users, facility managers, Buildings planning professions, construction industry. Groups of buildings owners, users, facility managers, planners, construction industry. owners,developers, planers, users, state Towns , Neighbourhoods administration, political parties Infrastructures utility companies, state administration and technical service, planning authorities. utility companies, IT companies, state Actual and virtual systems admnistration, users 44

Kritische Bestands Parameter Zustand Bestand Überalterung Ökosystem Demographie Urbanisierung Altersvorsorge Anforderungen Kulturerbe Energieversorgung Umwandlungsgeschwindigkeit Institutionelle Regimes Finanzierungsmodelle 45

Technologien
auf
Quartiersebene
 Technologien
auf
Quartiersebene
 46

Fields
of
acting
–
what
should
we
know
 Fields
of
acting
–
what
should
we
know
 47