2019: THAT Just Happened Scott Irwin Daily Closing Price for the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2019: THAT Just Happened Scott Irwin Daily Closing Price for the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 05, 2023 145 likes •451 views

2019: THAT Just Happened Scott Irwin Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 10.25 10.00 9.75 Dollars per Bushel 9.50 9.25 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25 Daily Closing Price for the

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2019: THAT Just Happened

Scott Irwin

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8.25 8.50 8.75 9.00 9.25 9.50 9.75 10.00 10.25 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

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8.25 8.50 8.75 9.00 9.25 9.50 9.75 10.00 10.25 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

February 7, 2018: US implements a 30 percent tariff on all solar panel imports, except for those from Canada and a 20 percent tariff on washing machine imports

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8.25 8.50 8.75 9.00 9.25 9.50 9.75 10.00 10.25 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

March 23, 2018: US imposes a 25 percent tariff

  • n all steel imports (except

from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and South Korea) and a 10 percent tariff on all aluminum imports (except from Argentina and Australia).

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8.25 8.50 8.75 9.00 9.25 9.50 9.75 10.00 10.25 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

April 4, 2018: China proposes 25 percent tariffs to be applied on 106 products (worth US$50 billion) on goods such as soybeans, automobile, chemicals (list revised on June 16).

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8.25 8.50 8.75 9.00 9.25 9.50 9.75 10.00 10.25 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

May 29, 2018: US reinstates tariff plans after brief truce.

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8.25 8.50 8.75 9.00 9.25 9.50 9.75 10.00 10.25 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

August 27, 2018: USDA announces Market Facilitation Program (MFP1) for farmers impacted by China’s tariffs

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8.25 8.50 8.75 9.00 9.25 9.50 9.75 10.00 10.25 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

U.S-China negotiations continue for remainder of 2018

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U.S-China negotiations continue for remainder of 2018

1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 Ratio

Daily Ratio of November 2019 Soybean and December 2019 Corn Futures Prices, January 2018 - October 2019

Breakeven

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U.S-China negotiations continue for remainder of 2018

1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 Ratio

Daily Ratio of November 2019 Soybean and December 2019 Corn Futures Prices, January 2018 - October 2019

Breakeven

2018 US Planted Acreage Corn: 89.1 million Soybean: 89.2 million 2019??

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2 4 6 8 10 12 Inches

Cumulative Monthly Precipitation Above Average in Illinois, September 2018 - May 2019

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8.25 8.50 8.75 9.00 9.25 9.50 9.75 10.00 10.25 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

April 3-5, 2019 – US and China hold trade talks in Washington Trump says that the two sides will know “over the next four weeks” whether they can strike a deal. US and Chinese negotiators agree to continue talks the following week.

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8.25 8.50 8.75 9.00 9.25 9.50 9.75 10.00 10.25 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

April 3-5, 2019 – US and China hold trade talks in Washington Trump says that the two sides will know “over the next four weeks” whether they can strike a deal. US and Chinese negotiators agree to continue talks the following week. May 10, 2019

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U.S-China negotiations continue for remainder of 2018

3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the December 2019 Corn Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

May 10, 2019

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1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 Ratio

Daily Ratio of November 2019 Soybean and December 2019 Corn Futures Prices, January 2018 - October 2019

Breakeven

2019 US Planted Acreage in May 10 WASDE Report Corn: 92.8 million +3.7m Soybeans: 84.6 million -4.6m May 10, 2019

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2 4 6 8 10 12 Inches

Cumulative Monthly Precipitation Above Average in Illinois, September 2018 - May 2019

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Planting Progress (%)

Weekly Illinois Corn Planting Progress, 2019 vs. 2014- 2018 Five-Year Average

2019 5-Year Average

June 2, 2019: 45% corn planting progress, 54% behind 5-year average

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U.S-China negotiations continue for remainder of 2018

3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the December 2019 Corn Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

June 17, 2019

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8.25 8.50 8.75 9.00 9.25 9.50 9.75 10.00 10.25 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

June 17, 2019

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1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 Ratio

Daily Ratio of November 2019 Soybean and December 2019 Corn Futures Prices, January 2018 - October 2019

Breakeven

June 17, 2019

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"You will not receive payments if you do not plant," said Rob Johansson, USDA's chief economist. May 23, 2019

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2019 US Corn Planted Acreage May 10 WASDE Report Illinois 92.8 million 82.8 to 87.8 million

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U.S-China negotiations continue for remainder of 2018

3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the December 2019 Corn Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

2019 US Planted Acreage in June 28 USDA Report Corn: 91.7 million +2.6m Soybeans: 80.0 million

  • 8.9m
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U.S-China negotiations continue for remainder of 2018

3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 Dollars per Bushel

Daily Closing Price for the December 2019 Corn Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

2019 US Planted Acreage in August 10 Reports Corn: 90.0 million +0.8m Soybeans: 76.7 million

  • 12.5m

Corn Prevent Plant: 11.2 million

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  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Surprise (%)

Market Surprise for USDA August Corn Crop Reports, 1965-2019

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87.065 89.942 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Million Acres Year

Comparison of FSA and NASS Planted Acreage Estimates for Corn, 2011-2019*

NASS FSA *2019: NASS: Oct. 1; FSA: Nov.1

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2018 2019 Difference Corn Planted 89.1 89.9 0.8 PP 0.9 11.4 10.5 Total 90.1 101.4 11.3 Soybeans Planted 89.2 76.5

  • 12.7

PP 0.3 4.5 4.2 Total 89.4 80.9

  • 8.5

Corn Planted 178.30 166.40

  • 11.9

and PP 1.21 15.89 14.7 Soybeans Total 179.5 182.3 2.8 Adding Up Corn and Soybean Planted and Prevent Plant Acres in 2018 and 2019 (million acres)

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