2019 Midye a r E c onomic F ore c a st R obe r t M. Mc Na b a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2019 Midye a r E c onomic F ore c a st R obe r t M. Mc Na b a nd Vinod Ag a r wa l Dra g a s Ce nte r for E c onomic Ana lysis a nd Polic y Strome Colle g e of Busine ss Old Dominion Unive r sity May 21, 2019 Age nda for T oday I
R
t M. Mc Na b a nd Vinod Ag a r wa l Dra g a s Ce nte r for E c onomic Ana lysis a nd Polic y Strome Colle g e of Busine ss Old Dominion Unive r sity
May 21, 2019
Age nda for T
I will c ove r e c onomic c onditions in the Unite d Sta te s and Vir ginia and the c halle nge s to g r
My c olle ague , Vinod Agar wal, will e xamine e c onomic c onditions in Hampton Roads and the pr
gr
All our pr e se ntation mate r ials c a n be found at our we bsite : www.c e apodu.c om
Pre se nting Sponsor Me dia Sponsor Othe r Sponsors
Our fore c asts and c omme ntary do not c onstitute offic ial vie wpoints of Old Dominion Unive rsity, its Pre side nt, John R. Brode ric k, the Board of Visitors, the Strome Colle ge of Busine ss,
support the ac tivitie s of the Dragas Ce nte r for E c onomic Analysis and Polic y.
The data in this presentation are subject to revision. To our knowledge, all data used are accurate at the time of the presentation.
▪
We honor the me mory
tire le ss supporte r of the ac tivitie s of the Dragas Ce nte r.
▪
improve the live s of all in Hampton R
was the primary ge ne sis of the State of the R e gion R e port.
5
7
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Annua lize d Qua rte rly Growth
Gr
Unite d State s, 2012 Q1- 2019 Q1
Oba ma (2012 Q1 - 2015 Q4) T rump (2016 Q1 - 2019 Q1)
Sourc e s: Bure au of Ec onomic Analysis and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. Data on G DP inc orporate late st BEA re visions in April 2019. Data for 2019 Q 1 are the advanc e e stimate . CAG R G DP growth in horizontal bars. CAG R O bama = 2.1% , CAG R T rump = 2.6% .
2.6% 2.1%
8
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Annua lize d Qua rte rly Growth
Gr
Vir g inia , 2012 Q1- 2018 Q4
Oba ma (2012 Q1 - 2015 Q4) T rump (2016 Q1 - 2019 Q1)
Sourc e s: Bure au of Ec onomic Analysis and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. Data on G DP inc orporate late st BEA re visions in May 2019. Data for 2018 Q 4 are the advanc e e stimate . CAG R G DP growth in horizontal bars.
2.4% 0.6%
9
9.2% 6.7%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Jobs Ga ine d or L
Months Sinc e Pre - R e c e ssion Pe a k
Re c ove r y fr
e a t Re c e ssion Me a sur e d in T
e d, 2008-2019*
United Sta tes Virg inia
Sourc e s: Bure au of L abor Statistic s and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. Pe ak Pre - R e c e ssion Date s are January 2008 (Unite d State s), and April 2008 (Virginia). *Data through April 2019 for Virginia and the Unite d State s. US data are pre liminary the last two months. Virginia data are pre liminary for the last month. Se asonally adjuste d data.
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16.8% 6.7% 13.0% 4.2% 9.2% 3.1% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Une mployme nt Ra te
Une mployme nt Ra te , Unite d Sta te s Ja nua r y 2007 – Apr il 2019
Bla c k or Afric a n Ame ric a n Hispanic or L a tino White
Sourc e s: Bure au of L abor Statistic s and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. Se asonally adjuste d data.
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64.6% 62.5% 69.4% 65.9% 66.7% 62.8% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 68% 69% 70% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 L a bor F
L a bor F
c e Pa r tic ipa tion Ra te , Unite d Sta te s Ja nua r y 2007 – Apr il 2019
Bla c k or Afric a n Ame ric a n Hispa nic or L a tino White
Sourc e s: Bure au of L abor Statistic s and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. Se asonally adjuste d data.
12
9.3% 6.9%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Profits a s Pe rc e nt of GDP
Cor por ate Pr
c e nt of GDP Unite d Sta te s, 1950 - 2018
Sourc e : Bure au of Ec onomic Analysis and O ld Dominion Unive rsity Ec onomic F
ax Without Inve ntory Adjustme nt
13
32.6 44.2 30.2 16.96
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1881 1885 1889 1893 1897 1901 1906 1910 1914 1918 1922 1926 1931 1935 1939 1943 1947 1951 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2006 2010 2014 2018 P/ E R a tio
Cyc lic ally Adjuste d Pr ic e / E a r nings Ra tio
Standard and Poor’s Composite Price Index
Januar y 1881 – May 2019*
Sourc e : R
r ational E xube r anc e . Pric e s and e arnings are in January 2000 dollars. *Data as May 6, 2019 marke t c lose . Ave rage P/ E ratio = 16.96 ove r the pe riod.
14
$70.9 $119.8 $100.0 $223.0 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 Billions of Nomina l Dolla rs
Re por te d Divide nds and Buybac ks for S&P 500 Cor por ations 1st Quar te r 2013 – 4th Quar te r 2018
Divide nds Buyba c ks
Sourc e : S&P Dow Jone s Indic e s, Marc h 2019. T he ye llow bar re pre se nts the pe riod afte r the passage of the T ax Cuts and Jobs Ac t of 2017. 4th quarte r 2018 buybac ks are the c urre nt historic al re c ord. 2018 share buybac ks we re 55.6% highe r than 2017.
15
49.6 90.7 58.7 99.3
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Inde x (1966 = 100)
Unive rsity of Mic higa n, Consume r Se ntime nt a nd E xpe c ta tions Januar y 2009 – Ma y 2019*
E xpec ta tions Sentime nt
Sourc e : Unive rsity of Mic higan, Surve y of Consume r Se ntime nt, May 2019. *T hre e - month moving ave rage
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c ontinue to be historic ally low.
c onsume r spe nding shows signs of slowing.
he 2017 T ax Cuts and Jobs Ac t inc re ase d share buybac ks and divide nds, boosting e quity pric e s and pe r- share pe rformanc e .
Virginia, e spe c ially in Northe rn Virginia and Hampton Roads.
18
13.1% 4.9% 5.5% 14.8% 1.2% 3.0%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Pe rc e nt of GDP
F e de r a l Outla ys a s Pe r c e nt of GDP 1968 - 2029
Disc r e tiona ry Ma nda tory Ne t Inte re st
Sourc e s: Congre ssional Budge t O ffic e (2019), Budge t and Ec onomic O utput: 2019 to 2029 and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y.
19
$782 $897 $1,018 $1,366 $1,592 $2,075
$0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Billions of Dolla rs
Congr e ssional Budg e t Offic e : Pr
e de r a l De fic it F Y 2018 - F Y 2029
CBO Ba se line Alte r native F isc al Sc enario
Sourc e : Congre ssional Budge t O ffic e (2018), Budge t and Ec onomic O utput: 2018 to 2029 and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. F e de ral de fic its in nominal dollars. T he alte rnative fisc al sc e nario assume s that appropriations are not c onstraine d by the Budge t Control Ac t of 2011, and many provisions of the 2017 tax law be c ome pe rmane nt.
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$263 $325 $383 $462 $528 $595 $658 $714 $763 $823 $889 $965 $1,040 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Billions of Dolla rs
Ne t Inte r e st E xpe nditur e s on F e de r al De bt Unite d Sta te s, F Y 2017 – F Y 2029
CBO Ba se line Alte r native F isc al Sc enario
Sourc e : Congre ssional Budge t O ffic e (2018), Budge t and Ec onomic O utput: 2018 to 2029 and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. F e de ral de fic its in nominal dollars. T he alte rnative fisc al sc e nario assume s that appropriations are not c onstraine d by the Budge t Control Ac t of 2011, and many provisions of the 2017 tax law be c ome pe rmane nt.
21
$606 $671 $685 $718 $690 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 F Y 17 F Y 18 F Y 19 F Y 20 (Pr e sBud) F Y 20 (House) Billions of Nomina l Dolla rs
De par tme nt of De fe nse Appr
iations F Y 17 – F Y 20
Ba se OCO BOCO E me r g e nc y
Sourc e s: Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y, O SD (Comptrolle r), F Y 2020 Pre side ntial Budge t, and House Appropriations Committe e – 302b alloc ations as of 07 May 2019, House Appropriations Committe e Markup 14 May 2019 ($622.1 base , +15.6 billion from F Y 19). BCA implie d c ap for DoD base is $545 billion.
174
Ave ra g e De la y = 68 da ys
50 100 150 200 250 F Y70 F Y74 F Y78 F Y82 F Y86 F Y90 F Y94 F Y98 F Y02 F Y06 F Y10 F Y14 F Y18 Da ys from E nd of L a st F isc a l Ye a r
De lays in De par tme nt of De fe nse Appr
iations F Y 1970 – F Y 2019
Sourc e s: Ce nte r for Strate gic and Inte rnational Studie s, T
Y 19.
22
23
he r e ar e se ve r al upc oming fisc a l spe e dbumps in 2019
lood Insuranc e Prog ram (Ma y 31)
amily L e a ve Cre dit E xpire s (De c e mbe r 31)
axe s are R e instate d (De c e mbe r 31)
▪ T
he de fe nse e nvir
▪ Se a- le ve l rise will thre ate n DoD infrastruc ture in Virginia ▪ Anti- ac c e ss/ are a- de nial strate g ie s are e roding the c a rrie r advantage ▪ Asymme try in c osts pose s a fisc a l and military c halle nge to the U.S. ▪ Future wars will be “hot, urban, and complex” ▪ “Cheaper, Better, Faster, Now” versus current model of “Best in Class”
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$4,942 $9,244 $2,289 $4,424
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Billions of Dolla rs
House hold De bt in Billions of Dollar s 2nd Quar te r 2003 – 1st Quar te r 2019
Mor tg ag e Non-Mortg a ge De bt
Sourc e s: Ce nte r for Mic roe c onomic Data, F e de ral R e se rve Bank of Ne w York and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. T
$13.67 trillion for 1 st quarte r 2019.
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0.4% 1.3% 8.8% 8.3% 2.3% 4.7% 6.1% 10.9% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Pe rc e nt De linque nt
Pe r c e nt of Ba lanc e s 90-Plus Da ys De linque nt by L
ype 2nd Quar te r 2003 – 1st Quar te r 2019
HE R e volving Cre dit Ca rd Auto L
Student L
Sourc e s: Ce nte r for Mic roe c onomic Data, F e de ral R e se rve Bank of Ne w York and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. T
$13.67 trillion for 1 st quarte r 2019.
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183.0 107.4 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Inde x (1987 = 100)
Non-F a r m L a bor Pr
a r ning s Unite d Sta te s, 1987-2018
Pr
Re a l E a r ning s
Sourc e s: Bure au of L abor Statistic s and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. Private non- farm labor produc tivity. Me dian usual we e kly re al e arnings for wage and salary worke rs 16 ye ars and olde r.
28
46% 78%
242%
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Pe r c e nt Ga in in Ave r a g e Inc ome
Cumula tive Growth in Ave ra g e Inc ome Afte r T ra nsfe rs a nd T a xe s Unite d Sta te s, 1979 to 2015
L
Quintile Middle T hre e Quintile s (21st to 80th Pe rc e ntile s) 81st to 99th Pe rc e ntile s T
Pe rc e nt
Sourc e s: Congre ssional Budge t O ffic e and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. Private non- farm labor produc tivity. Me dian usual we e kly re al e arnings for wage and salary worke rs 16 ye ars and olde r.
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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 ISL GBR ISR NOR E ST USA DNK NL D SWE DE U F IN IR L SVK CZE BE L CHE SVN POL F R A E SP HUN AUS PR T IT A KOR Pe rsiste nc y in Soc ia l Cla ss
Pe r siste nc e in Soc ial Cla ss Or g aniza tion for E c onomic Coope r a tion a nd De ve lopme nt
Source: OECD (2018), A Broken Social Elevator? How to Promote Social Mobility. The data represent the relative strength of association between parents and children for 9 social classes, standardized to a value
30
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Pe rsiste nc y in Soc ia l Cla ss
Cha ng e in Pe r siste nc e in Soc ial Cla ss 1945-1959 Cohor t vs 1960-1974 Cohor t
Source: OECD (2018), A Broken Social Elevator? How to Promote Social Mobility. The data represent the relative strength of association between parents and children for 7 social classes, standardized to a value
31
▪ We ar
e in a “Goldilocks' moment” with low une mployme nt, low inflation, low inte r e st r ate s, high c onsume r se ntime nt, and c ontinue d r e tur ns on e quitie s and r e a l e state .
▪ De bt c ontinue s to inc r
e a se for the fe de r al gove r nme nt, c or por ations, and house holds.
▪ Is a tr
ade war ine vitable ? T ar iffs and c ounte r-tar iffs may c r e a te e nough damage to stall e c onomic gr
k inflation.
▪ Inc ome and we a lth ine quality is inc r
e a sing, a nd soc ia l mobility is de c lining. Is the middle c lass hollowing out?
▪ A lac k of fisc a l, politic al, and soc ial spac e sugge sts the e nd of this
e xpansion will be diffic ult to ma nage .
32
2017 Ac tua l 2018 F
2018 Ac tua l 2019 F
U.S. Re a l Gr
2.3% 3.1% 3.0% 2.5% Civilia n Job Growth 1.2% 1.2% 1.6% 1.5% Une mployme nt Ra te 4.1% 3.6% 3.9% 3.7% Consume r Pr ic e Inde x 2.2% 3.0% 2.4% 2.7% Core Consume r Pric e Inde x 1.7% 2.3% 2.1% 2.3% 3- month T re a sury Bill 1.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 10- ye a r T r e a sur y Bill 2.4% 3.3% 2.9% 2.9% 30- ye a r T r e a sur y Bill 2.8% 3.6% 3.1% 3.3% 30- ye a r Conve ntiona l Mor tg a g e 4.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.6% F e de ra l De fic it
Virg inia Re a l GDP 2.0% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% Virg inia E mployme nt Growth 1.4% 1.5% 1.1% 1.4%
Notes: Data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of the year where appropriate. Data are rounded to nearest tenth. U.S. Treasuries are constant maturities, annual averages.
34
$61,481 $99,578 $71,944 $83,584 $83,643 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 $110,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Millions of Dolla rs
Nominal and Re a l Gr
Hampton Roa ds, 2003 – 2018*
Nominal GDP R e al GDP
Sourc e s: Bure au of Ec onomic Analysis and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. Data on G DP inc orporate s late st BEA re visions in Se pte mbe r 2018. Data for 2017 for Hampton R
e al G DP in 2009 Chaine d Dollars.
35
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Annua l R e a l GDP Growth
Gr
Hampton Roa ds, 2003-2018*
Sourc e s: Bure au of Ec onomic Analysis and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. Data on G DP inc orporate s late st BEA re visions in Se pte mbe r 2018. Data for 2017 for Hampton R
G DP growth in horizontal bars.
4.3%
1.6%
36
101.7 112.4 121.0
90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 125.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Inde x of R e a l GDP (2006 = 100)
Inde x of Re a l GDP, 2006 – 2018* Ha mpton Roa ds, Vir g inia , a nd the Unite d Sta te s
Hampton Roa ds Virg inia United Sta tes
Sourc e s: Bure au of Ec onomic Analysis and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. Data on G DP inc orporate s late st BEA re visions. *Data for 2017 for Hampton R
37
14.2 35.3 61.7 83.5 114.8 176.1 200.1 253.7 381.5
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Hampton Roa ds Durha m- Cha pel Hill R ic hmond Jac ksonville, F L R a le ig h Nor the rn Virginia Charlotte Virg inia Nor th Ca rolina
Ne t Ne w Civilia n Jobs Ga ine d or L
Se le c te d Me tr
e a s, Vir g inia , a nd Nor th Ca r
Pe a k Pr e -Re c e ssion E mployme nt to Apr il 2019 (thousands)
Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES seasonally adjusted data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak pre-recessionary employment occurred in 2008 for all regions except Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Jacksonville (2007). Comparison of total nonfarm employment in April 2019 to pre-recessionary peak employment. Data for April 2019 are preliminary.
Sourc e s: U.S. De partme nt of De fe nse and Dragas Ce nte r for E c onomic Analysis and Polic y. Inc lude s F e de ral Civilian and Military Pe rsonne l and Proc ure me nt. *Data for 2018 are e stimate s while 2019 is our fore c ast.
$10.0 $19.8 $19.9 $20.8 $22.1 $5 $7 $9 $11 $13 $15 $17 $19 $21 $23 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f Billions of Dolla rs
E stimate d Dir e c t De par tme nt of De fe nse Spe nding Hampton Roa ds, 2000 to 2019*
39
154 158 159 159 155 155 153 152 147 146 144 140 137 139 142 142 139 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 E mploye e s in T housa nds
Militar y and F e de r al Civilian E mployme nt Hampton Roads, 2001 - 2017
Military F e de ra l Civilian
Sourc e s: U.S. Bure au of Ec onomic Analysis and Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y. L ast update d by BEA on Nove mbe r 15, 2018
40
286 294 1,308 1,532 2,571 3,356 3,583
750 1750 2750 3750 4750 Whole sa le T r a de R e ta il T r a de Informa tion E duc a tiona l Se rvic es Prof, Sc i, a nd T ec hnic a l Servic e s T ra nsporta tion a nd Ware housing Construc tion F ina nc e a nd Insuranc e Ma na ge me nt of Companie s Ac c ommodation and F
Hea lth Ca re and Soc ia l Assista nc e Ma nufa c turing Administra tive and Support
Change in E mployme nt: Se le c te d Industrie s in Hampton Roads, 2017 Q1 to 2018 Q1
Source: Virginia Employment Commission: Covered Employment and Wages by all types of Ownership (VA part of MSA) and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
782 Jul 2007 734 F e b 2010 782 June 2017 796 700 710 720 730 740 750 760 770 780 790 800 810 Jan-07 Jul- 07 Jan-08 Jul- 08 Jan-09 Jul- 09 Jan-10 Jul- 10 Jan-11 Jul- 11 Jan-12 Jul- 12 Jan-13 Jul- 13 Jan-14 Jul- 14 Jan-15 Jul- 15 Jan-16 Jul- 16 Jan-17 Jul- 17 Jan-18 Jul- 18 Jan-19 T housa nds of Jobs
T
m E mployme nt (Jobs) Hampton Roads, Januar y 2007 – Apr il 2019
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for March 2019 are preliminary. Trough was February 2010. Next update: May 17,2019.
+ 61,900 Jobs
43
815.1 Oc t. 2009 852.9 780 790 800 810 820 830 840 850 860 Jan-07 Jul- 07 Jan-08 Jul- 08 Jan-09 Jul- 09 Jan-10 Jul- 10 Jan-11 Jul- 11 Jan-12 Jul- 12 Jan-13 Jul- 13 Jan-14 Jul- 14 Jan-15 Jul- 15 Jan-16 Jul- 16 Jan-17 Jul- 17 Jan-18 Jul- 18 Jan-19 T housa nds of Individua ls
Civilian L a bor F
c e Ha mpton Roa ds, Janua r y 2007 – Mar c h 2019
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for March 2019 are preliminary. Trough was October 2009. Next update: May 29, 2019
44
+ 37,788 Pe r sons
755.4 Oc t. 2009 825.5 720 740 760 780 800 820 840 Jan-07 Jul- 07 Jan-08 Jul- 08 Jan-09 Jul- 09 Jan-10 Jul- 10 Jan-11 Jul- 11 Jan-12 Jul- 12 Jan-13 Jul- 13 Jan-14 Jul- 14 Jan-15 Jul- 15 Jan-16 Jul- 16 Jan-17 Jul- 17 Jan-18 Jul- 18 Jan-19 T housa nds of Individua ls
E mployme nt of Individuals Hampton Roa ds, Januar y 2007 – Mar c h 2019
45
+ 70,022 Pe r sons
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for March 2019 are preliminary. Trough was October 2009.
46
4.6% 3.6% 2.9% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan-07 Jun- 07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 F e b-09 Jul- 09 Dec -09 Ma y-10 Oc t-10 Ma r
Aug -11 Jan-12 Jun- 12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 F e b-14 Jul- 14 Dec -14 Ma y-15 Oc t-15 Ma r
Aug -16 Jan-17 Jun- 17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 F eb-19 Une mployment R a te
He a dline Une mployme nt Ra te (U3) Unite d State s, Vir ginia, and Hampton Roa ds Janua r y 2007 – Ma r c h 2019
United Sta tes Virg inia Hampton Roa ds
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. Virginia and Hampton Roads data are through March while US data are through April 2019.
47
49
19,869 24,755 14,703 24,587 4,969 2,265 3,142 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Home Sales
Existing and New Construction Home Sales Hampton Roads, 2002-2018
Existing Homes New Construction
Sources: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
City Total Homes Sold Existing Homes Sold New Construction Homes Sold Percent New Construction
Hampton 2,008 1,889 119 5.9% Newport News 2,154 2,065 89 4.1% Williamsburg* 3,066 2,655 411 13.4%
Chesapeake 4,564 3,590 974 21.3% Norfolk 3,237 2,959 278 8.6% Portsmouth 1,748 1,614 134 7.7% Suffolk 1,714 1,319 395 23.1% Virginia Beach 7,549 7,097 452 6.0% Hampton Roads 27,729 24,587 3,142 11.3%
Sources: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
50
51
2,161 1,070 1,889 2,753 1,355 2,065 1,220 2,655 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Home Sa le s
E xisting Home Sa le s in Se le c te d Mar ke ts 2002-2018
Hampton Ne wport Ne ws Willia msbur g
Sources: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
52
$223,000 $225,000 $180,000 $165,900 $199,250 $179,000 $284,450 $291,500 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Median Sale Price
Median Sale Price of Existing Homes Selected Markets, 2002 - 2018
Hampton Roads Hampton Newport News Williamsburg
Sources: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
53
▪ Inve ntor
ie s, days on mar ke t, and e stimate d supply have de c line d sinc e 2011.
▪ Numbe r
e a se d ove r time .
▪ Mor
tgage r ate s c ontinue to be at histor ic ally low le ve ls.
▪ T
he me dian pr ic e of home s has not inc r e a se d signific a ntly this de c a de .
▪ Pr
e sse d mar ke t– shor t sale s and bank-
Os).
54
6.6% 29.6% 12.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Percent Distressed
Distressed Listings as a Percentage of Active Listings of Existing Homes December 2008 - December 2018
Hampton Roads Hampton Newport News Williamsburg
Sources: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
55
0.3% 33.8% 9.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual Average Distressed Sales Percentage of Existing Homes Sold, 2006 - 2018
Hampton Roads Hampton Newport News Williamsburg
Sources: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
9% 34% 32% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Homes Financed by VA Loans as a Percentage of Existing Homes Sold 2005-2018
Hampton Roads Hampton Newport News Williamsburg
Sources: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
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4.5% 29.0% 15.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Homes Financed by FHA Loans as a Percentage of Existing Homes Sold 2005-2018
Hampton Roads Hampton Newport News Williamsburg
Sources: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
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$524 $708 $711 $842 $881
$296 $342 $343 $351
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Millions of Dollars
Nominal and Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Hotel Revenue Hampton Roads, 2001-2018
Revenue Real Revenue
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Sourc e s: ST R T re nd R e port January 2019, Bure au of L abor Statistic s, and the Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y, Ec onomic F
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$44 $39 $49 $32 $57 $53 $64 $153 $160 $120 $170 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Millions of Dolla rs
Nomina l Hote l Re ve nue in Se le c te d Ma r ke ts 2001 – 2018
Hampton Ne wport Ne ws Willia msbur g
Sourc e s: ST R T re nd R e port January 2019 and the Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y, Ec onomic F
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2007 2018 Percent Change Real Percent Change
USA $65.54 $85.96 +31.2% +8.3% Virginia $61.91 $71.24 +15.1%
Hampton Roads $52.78 $65.03 +23.2% +1.7%
Hampton $41.71 $53.58 +28.5% +6.1% Newport News $39.69 $46.05 +16.0%
Williamsburg $47.47 $60.03 +26.5% +4.4%
Chesapeake/Suffolk $52.90 $56.95 +7.7%
Norfolk/Portsmouth $54.05 $64.34 +19.0%
Virginia Beach $64.29 $82.44 +28.2% +5.9%
Sourc e s: ST R T re nd R e port January 2019, Bure au of L abor Statistic s, and the Dragas Ce nte r for Ec onomic Analysis and Polic y, Ec onomic F
33,787 39,608 36,744 37,094 19,491 20,787 20,279 23,382
15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Ava ila ble Oc c upie d
Source: STR Global and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
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2,631 3,226 2,519 3,208 4,144 3,823 9,517 9,301 7,746
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Ha mpton Ne wport Ne ws Willia msburg
Source: STR Global and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
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1,556 1,717 1,558 1,670 2,110 2,474 2,520 2,643 4,863 3,836 3,770 3,831
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Ha mpton Ne wport Ne ws Willia msburg
Source: STR Global and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
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0.4% 1.8% 4.7% 5.9%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Pe rc e nt of Hote l R e ve nue
Air bnb Re ve nue a s Pe r c e nta ge of T
Ha mpton Roa ds, Oc tobe r 2014 to July 2018
Sourc e s: ST R T re nd R e ports and AirDNA data re c e ive d in Se pte mbe r 2018 e xc luding share d rooms. Se le c te d data points are July o f e ac h ye ar. July 2018 = $7.3mil.
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2.0% 4.7% 5.9% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Oc t- 14 De c - 14 F e b- 15 Apr- 15 Jun- 15 Aug - 15 Oc t- 15 De c - 15 F e b- 16 Apr- 16 Jun- 16 Aug - 16 Oc t- 16 De c - 16 F e b- 17 Apr- 17 Jun- 17 Aug - 17 Oc t- 17 De c - 17 F e b- 18 Apr- 18 Jun- 18 Airbnb Re ve nue / Hote l Re ve nue
Air bnb Re ve nue a s Pe r c e nt of Hote l Re ve nue Se le c te d Ma r ke ts, Oc tobe r 2014 to July 2018
Ha mpton Roa ds Ha mpton Ne wport Ne ws Willia msburg
Sourc e s: ST R G lobal and Airdna data re c e ive d in Se pte mbe r 2018 e xc luding share d rooms.
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YT D Ma rc h 2018 YT D Ma rc h 2019 Pe rc e nta g e Cha ng e Civilia n L a bor F
846,193 849,633 +0.41% E mployme nt 815,196 819,976 +0.59% Numbe r Une mployed 30,997 29,657
Une mployment R a te 3.66% 3.49%
Civilia n Nonfa rm Pa yrolls** 782,975 784,650 +0.21% T a xa ble Sa le s $5.28 Billion $5.35 Billion +1.30%
Source: Multiple sources available upon request. **Data are for YTD April 2017 and YTD April 2018.
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YT D Ma rc h 2018 YT D Ma rc h 2019 Pe rc e nta g e Cha ng e Hote l R e ve nue ** $213.19 Million $223.12 Million +4.66% Ge ne ra l Ca rg o T
7.39 Million 7.40 Million +0.14% T E U Conta ine r s** 910,772 954,230 +4.77% Numbe r of 1 Unit Housing Pe rmits 1,102 846
Va lue of 1 Unit Housing Pe rmits $236.31 Million $169.46 Million
Numbe r of E xisting Home s Sold** 6,865 7,129 +3.85% Distre ssed Sa le s a s Pe rc e nta ge of E xisting Home s Sold** 12.34% 9.37%
Me dia n Pric e of E xisting Home s Sold** $216,900 220,0900 +1.43%
Source: Multiple sources available upon request. **Data are for YTD April 2017 and YTD April 2018.
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2018 F
e c a st 2018 Ac tual 2019 F
e c a st Hampton Roa ds Re al Gr
2.2%
Civilian Job Gr
0.5% 0.8% 0.8% Une mployme nt Ra te 3.9% 3.3% 3.1% T axable Sa le s 3.0% 3.4% 3.3% Hote l Re ve nue 3.9% 4.7% 3.8% Ge ne r al Car go T
2.8% 0.0% 2.0% Ge ne r al Car go T E Us 4.0% 0.5% 3.6% One Unit Housing Pe r mit Value 2.4% 2.8% 2.0%
Source: 2018 data reflects the annual rate of growth. Dragas Center forecast current as of May 2019.
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growth obse rve d in 2018 and 2017.
inc re ase at a mode rate pac e . Months of supply of e xisting home s are lowe r than the ir historic ave rage .
c onc e rn.
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