2019 CAPITAL PROGRAM & 2018 RESULTS
February 13, 2019
2019 CAPITAL PROGRAM & 2018 RESULTS February 13, 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2019 CAPITAL PROGRAM & 2018 RESULTS February 13, 2019 Forward-Looking Statements and Other Matters This presentation (and oral statements made regarding the subjects of this presentation) contains forward-looking statements within the
February 13, 2019
This presentation (and oral statements made regarding the subjects of this presentation) contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These are statements, other than statements of historical fact, that give current expectations or forecasts of future events, including, without limitation: the Company's 2019 capital budget and allocations (including development capital budget and resource play leasing and exploration spend), future performance, organic free cash flow, corporate-level cash returns on invested capital, business strategy, asset quality, drilling plans, production, cash margins, oil growth, cost and expense estimates, cash flows, uses of excess cash, return
exploration activities, future financial position, tax rates and other plans and objectives for future operations. Words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “future”, “guidance,” “intend,” “may,” “outlook”, “plan,” “project,” “seek,” “should,” “target,” “will,” “would,” or similar words may be used to identify forward-looking statements; however, the absence of these words does not mean that the statements are not forward-looking. While the Company believes its assumptions concerning future events are reasonable, a number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, including, without limitation: conditions in the oil and gas industry, including supply/demand levels and the resulting impact on price; changes in expected reserve or production levels; changes in political or economic conditions in the jurisdictions in which the Company operates, including changes in foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates, inflation rates, and global and domestic market conditions; capital available for exploration and development; risks related to our hedging activities; well production timing; drilling and operating risks; availability of drilling rigs, materials and labor, including the costs associated therewith; difficulty in obtaining necessary approvals and permits; non-performance by third parties of contractual
thereto; cyber-attacks; changes in safety, health, environmental, tax and other regulations; other geological, operating and economic considerations; and the risk factors, forward-looking statements and challenges and uncertainties described in the Company’s 2017 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and other public filings and press releases, available at www.Marathonoil.com. Except as required by law, the Company undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures, including organic free cash flow and E.G. EBITDAX. Reconciliations of the differences between non-GAAP financial measures used in this presentation and their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available at www.Marathonoil.com in the 4Q18 Investor Packet.
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Multi-Basin Portfolio
rapid sharing of best practices, platform for talent development
Balance Sheet Strength
pricing; current net debt/EBITDAX among lowest in peer group
Differentiated Execution
while enhancing our resource base; delivering on our commitments
Our working definition of capital discipline
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Powered by our Foundation Committed to our Framework Corporate Returns
corporate returns improvement through capital efficient oil growth
Free Cash Flow
Return of Capital
competitive dividend; funded through free cash flow, not dispositions
Organic FCF positive in both 2019 and 2020 above $45/bbl WTI, post-dividend
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Corporate Returns
performance metrics − 20% CROIC and 18% CFPDAS CAGRs (2017-2020) at $50/bbl WTI flat − 30% CROIC and CFPDAS CAGR (2017-2020) at $60/bbl WTI flat
Free Cash Flow
− >$750MM at $50/bbl WTI flat − >$2.2B at $60/bbl WTI flat
Return of Capital
− Returned over 25% of operating cash flow to shareholders in 2018 − Return of capital metric incorporated into executive compensation scorecard, complementing CROIC and CFPDAS
Differentiated Execution
first capital allocation − 2019 U.S. oil growth of 12% and total oil growth of 10%
1Organic FCF = Operating Cash Flow before working capital (excl. exploration costs other than well costs), less Development Capex, less Dividends, plus EG return of
capital & other 2CROIC = Cash return on invested capital; calculated by taking cash flow (Operating Cash Flow before working capital + net interest after tax) divided by (average Stockholder’s Equity + average Net Debt); 3CFPDAS = Cash flow per debt adjusted share; calculated by taking cash flow (Operating Cash Flow before working capital + net interest after tax) divided by total shares including debt shares. Debt shares is the average net debt during a calendar year divided by the average annual stock price; See the 4Q 2018 Investor Packet at www.Marathonoil.com for non-GAAP reconciliations
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Differentiated annual FCF yield vs. E&P peers
0% 5% 10% 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
2019 - 2020 2019 - 2020 2019 - 2020
Cumulative Organic FCF ($MM)
2019 – 2020 ($60 WTI)
Organic FCF Organic FCF Yield (Annual Avg.) $2.2B+ Cumulative Organic FCF
Organic FCF Yield (Annual Avg.)
$750MM+ Cumulative Organic FCF Organic FCF+ Above $45/bbl in Both Years
2019 – 2020 ($50 WTI) 2019 – 2020 ($45 WTI)
*Organic FCF yield represents average annualized yield for 2019 and 2020 using MRO stock price as of 2/8/19
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Underpins confidence in 2019 delivery
2018 Objectives Initial Guidance Actual Delivery
@$50/bbl WTI @$65/bbl WTI
Capital Discipline
$2.3B development capital $2.3B development capital
Corporate Returns
30% CROIC improvement 78% CROIC improvement 10% CFPDAS improvement 65% CFPDAS improvement
Free Cash Flow
Organic FCF positive, post- dividend, above $50/bbl WTI $865MM of post-dividend,
Return of Capital
Prioritize incremental return, above dividend, through sustainable organic FCF $700MM of share buybacks and $170MM dividend
Capital Efficient Oil Growth
18% total oil growth at midpoint, divestiture adjusted 24% total oil growth, divestiture adjusted 22.5% resource play oil growth at midpoint 32% resource play oil growth
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Eagle Ford Bakken Oklahoma
Northern Delaware
Resource Play Capital Allocation
Resource Play Development REx Other
Focused program balances corporate returns with strategic objectives
– Comprised of $2.4B development capital and $200MM
– Planning basis of $50/bbl WTI; organic free cash flow positive above $45/bbl WTI, post-dividend
resource plays
– ~60% of resource play capital allocated to Eagle Ford and Bakken with ~40% to Oklahoma and Northern Delaware, similar to 2018 – Capital efficient oil growth on flat wells to sales drives corporate returns improvement – Development capital continues to fund organic resource base enhancement initiatives
ratable forward spending profile – Continues progression of LA Austin Chalk and other emerging opportunities with focus on full cycle returns
Focused Investment
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Appraise / Delineate Early Development Full Field Development
Competitively advantaged multi-basin model
Red Hills delineation
enhancement
Northern Delaware
STACK and SCOOP; 95% pad drilling
Oklahoma
recovery (EOR) pilot
Eagle Ford Bakken
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Full-year 2018 Highlights
enhanced return of capital to shareholders
REx program with focus on full-cycle returns
equivalents by ~$900MM to $1.5B at YE 2018 4Q 2018 Highlights
− Eagle Ford: 38 wells achieved an avg. IP 30 of 1,810 BOED (72% oil) − Bakken: Ajax four-well pad extension test achieved avg. IP 30 of 2,370 BOED (81% oil) at ~$5MM completed well cost (CWC) − Oklahoma: 3R SCOOP infill >60% above type curve at 45 days; positive Springer delineation well − Northern Delaware: 4 Upper Wolfcamp wells avg. IP 30 of 340 BOED/1,000 ft. lateral (74% oil)
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563 1,431 1,462 3,245 2,286 169 78 369 700 1,151 51
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
1/1/18 Cash Balance Operating Cash Flow b/f WC Development Capital Expenditures Dividends EG LNG Return of Capital & Other Cash Balance b/f A&D, REx & Financing REx Capex Share Buy- Back Acquisitions & Disposal of Assets (Net) Total Working Capital 12/31/18 Cash Balance
$MM
1 2 3
returned to shareholders in 2018
Generated ~$865MM of organic free cash flow at avg. WTI of $65/bbl
1 Excludes $34MM of exploration costs other than well costs 2 Acquisition and Disposal of Assets includes $105MM BLM lease costs, Libya disposition & OSM final payment 3Total working capital includes $17MM and $(68)MM of working capital changes associated with operating activities and investing activities, respectively & other
See the 4Q 2018 Investor Packet at www.Marathonoil.com for non-GAAP reconciliations
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Full-year 2018 Highlights
gross operated wells to sales (WTS)
BOED (72% oil), demonstrating strength of extended core
generation, improved well productivity
– 180-day cumulative production up 10% vs. 2017 and up 45% vs. 2016
4Q 2018 Highlights
from year-ago quarter
year-ago quarter
Well performance history composed of MRO operated wells across all formations
Well Performance History Production Volumes and Wells to Sales
20 40 60 40 80 120 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Operated Wells to Sales Production Gross Wells Net WI Wells
MBOED
50 100 150 45 90 135 180
2017 2016 2015
Days
2018
Year-over-year growth on fewer wells to sales
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Guajillo East 5 well pad 1,480 BOED (82% oil) ~5,960’ LL
IPs shown are 30-day (includes oil, NGL and gas) and represent pad average
Live Oak Bee Karnes Atascosa Wilson
4Q18 Pads to Sales CRH / Fire Opal 3 well pad 1,800 BOED (73% oil) ~5,500’ LL Challenger B / Medina H. 3 well pad 1,470 BOED (79% oil) ~5,230’ LL Jordan / Fransen / GM 5 well pad 1,550 BOED (69% oil) ~3,270’ LL San Christoval Ranch 3 well pad 1,640 BOED (48% oil) ~3,310’ LL Luna / May 4 well pad 1,480 BOED (56% oil) ~5,750’ LL Kowalik 3 well pad 2,940 BOED (68% oil) ~8,950’ LL Brown D. / Holland B. 6 well pad 2,070 BOED (74% oil) ~6,010’ LL
Medina-Jonas
6 well pad 1,940 BOED (83% oil) ~6,750’ LL
4Q 2018 wells driving robust corporate returns
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~50% Y/Y Capital Efficiency Improvement
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 4Q17 4Q18
BOED
IP 30 BOED*
+15%
$4 $5 $6 $7 $8 4Q17 4Q18
CWC ($MM)
CWC ($MM)
* IP 30 rates normalized to 9500’.
10 20 30 20 40 60 80 100 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Production Gross Wells Net WI Wells
MBOED
Production Volumes and Wells to Sales
Operated Wells to Sales
Successful core extension tests in Ajax, Southern Hector, and Elk Creek
Full-year 2018 Highlights
2,390 BOED (78% oil), demonstrating strength of extended core 4Q 2018 Highlights
from year-ago quarter
30 of 2,370 BOED (81% oil) at ~$5MM CWC
ago quarter
– 8 wells achieved sub $5MM CWC with avg. IP 30 of 2,850 BOED (76% oil) – Completion stages per day up over 65% from year- ago quarter
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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
30-day IP (BOPD)
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
30-day IP (BOPD)
IPs shown in map are 30-day (includes oil, NGL and gas) and represent pad average Source: Drilling info, competitor presentations and internal data. External data available through 4Q 2018.
Delivered 45 of the top 50 all-time Middle Bakken & Three Forks oil wells
McKenzie Dunn Myrmidon Hector Elk Creek Ajax
Q4 2018 to Sales Axell, Nugget & Ness Pads 9 wells 3,450 BOED (74% oil) Irish Pad 3 wells 3,140 BOED (74% oil) Ringer Pad 2 wells 2,385 BOED (84% oil) Gloria Pad 4 wells 2,370 BOED (81% oil) Clara Pad 4 wells 3,510 BOED (73% oil) Julia Jones Pad 5 wells 4,250 BOED (75% oil)
Historic Three Forks Well Performance Historic Middle Bakken Well Performance
MRO 2018 MRO 2017 Peers MRO 2018 Peers
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4 8 12 16 20 20 40 60 80 100 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Production Gross Wells Net WI Wells
Full-year 2018 Highlights
– Competitive returns and predictable results at various spacing designs
from prior year 4Q 2018 Highlights
year-ago quarter
infill delivered avg. IP 30 of 2,600 BOED (69% liquids)
– CWC/lateral ft. ~35% below most recent SCOOP Woodford infill (Lightner) – Springer delineation well on same pad delivers IP 30 of 1,825 BOED (81% oil)
year-ago quarter
3R SCOOP Infill >60% Above Type Curve at 45 Days
40 80 120 160 15 30 45 60 75 Type Curve Lightner Wells - 4 wells on 8 wps 3R Wells - 8 wps
MBOED Days
Production Volumes and Wells to Sales
Operated Wells to Sales MBOED
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SCOOP infills outperforming type curve
wps – wells per section spacing
Caddo Grady Stephens Blaine Canadian Kingfisher
Wet Gas Condensate Oil 4Q18 Wells to Sales IPs shown are 30-day (includes oil, NGL and gas) and represent pad average on the 3R, and single well on the Papa Pump
Burton Ellis Olive June Lloyd Ruthie Calvin 3R 7 Woodford infill wells (8 wps) 2,600 BOED (69% liquids) ~10,000’ LL Papa Pump 1 Springer delineation well 1,825 BOED (81% oil) ~8,480’ LL
Upcoming Infills
Multi-well development continues
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4Q17 4Q18 Stages/day
Full-year 2018 Highlights
~20% since play entry
stages per day up >30% vs. 2017
4Q 2018 Highlights
year-ago quarter
– 4Q activity featured successful Lower Wolfcamp (WC) spacing test – 4 Upper WC wells avg. IP 30 of 340 BOED per 1,000 ft lateral (74% oil)
agreement covering Red Hills area
ago quarter
5 10 15 20 25 5 10 15 20 25 30 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Production Gross Wells Net WI Wells
Production Volumes and Wells to Sales
Operated Wells to Sales Completion stages/day
Capturing Significant Efficiency Gains
MBOED
+40%
Focus on multi-well pads while progressing delineation
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Alba Gas Plant AMPCO Methanol Plant EGLNG Plant
World Class Gas Infrastructure
Alba Gas Plant AMPCO Methanol Plant EGLNG Plant
Full-year 2018 Highlights
– Closed $450MM Libya sale; received final Oil Sands Mining payment of $750MM – Progressing full Kurdistan exit, which will mark 9th country exit in last 5 years
4Q 2018 Highlights
– 1Q19 volume guidance includes impact of E.G. triennial turnaround
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Prioritizing Corporate Returns, FCF, Return of Capital to Shareholders
“While many in our industry talked about capital discipline, we delivered… Through improving capital efficiency and unwavering discipline, we drove significant improvement to our corporate returns, delivered more oil growth, generated $865 million of organic free cash flow post-dividend, and returned most of that cash back to our shareholders via share
improvement
budget
& 12% U.S. oil growth
Our Plan - 2019
improvement
development capital budget
Our Delivery - 2018
Shareholders
Execution
Our Framework Our Foundation
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FY19 Net Production Oil Production (MBOPD) Equivalent Production (MBOED) 2019 2018* 2019 2018*
United States 185 - 195 169 320 - 330 295 International 20 - 30 27 90 - 100 110 Total Net Production 205 - 225 196 410 - 430 405
1Q19 Net Production Oil Production (MBOPD) Equivalent Production (MBOED) Q1 2019 Q4 2018* Q1 2018* Q1 2019 Q4 2018* Q1 2018*
United States 175 - 185 180 160 295 - 305 306 278 International 20 - 30 23 30 85 - 95 102 110 Total Net Production 195 - 215 203 190 380 - 400 408 388
* Divestiture-adjusted, and also excludes Atrush volumes which are held for sale
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Full-Year Estimate
United States Cost Data Production Operating $4.50 – 5.50 DD&A $19.25 – 21.75 S&H and Other* $4.00 – 4.50 International Cost Data Production Operating $4.75 – 5.75 DD&A $3.75 – 5.25 S&H and Other* $1.00 – 1.50 Expected Tax Rates by Jurisdiction: United States and Corporate Tax Rate 0% Equatorial Guinea Tax Rate 25% United Kingdom Tax Rate 40%
* Excludes G&A expense
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As of February 12, 2019
Crude Oil (Benchmark to NYMEX WTI)
1Q 2019 2Q 2019 3Q 2019 4Q 2019 FY 2020 Three-Way Collars Volume (BBLs/day) 70,000 70,000 50,000 50,000
Ceiling $71.21 $71.21 $75.88 $75.88
$55.86 $55.86 $57.80 $57.80
$48.71 $48.71 $50.80 $50.80
Volume (BBLs/day) 10,000 11,000 16,000 16,000 15,000 Weighted Avg Price per BBL $(0.82) $(1.06) $(1.53) $(1.53) $(0.94) NYMEX Roll Basis Swaps Volume (BBLs/day) 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000
$0.38 $0.38 $0.38 $0.38
As of February 12, 2019
Natural Gas (Benchmark to NYMEX HH) 1Q19 Three-Way Collars Volume (MMBtu/day) 200,000 Weighted Avg Price per MMBtu: Ceiling $5.25 Floor $3.43 Sold put $2.88
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1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full-Year
United States Net Sales Volumes:
164 168 173 180 171
50 57 58 55 55
420 435 433 422 429
284 298 303 305 298 International Net Sales Volumes:
35 32 27 29 32
11 12 11 10 11
415 461 441 411 430
115 121 112 108 114 Total Sales Volumes (MBOED) 399 419 415 413 412 Total Available for Sale (MBOED) 398 419 419 411 412 Equity Method Investment Net Sales Volumes:
5,541 6,141 6,152 5,384 5,805
1,195 1,316 1,334 1,119 1,241
12,416 12,689 11,942 15,071 13,034 Exploration Expenses (Pre-tax):
51 64 55 76 246
1 1 1 3 Consolidated Effective Tax Rate (ex. Libya) Provision 2% 31% 29% 4% 14%
Excluding Libya
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U.S. Divestiture-Adj. Sales Volumes*
MBOED
257 301 305
100 200 300 4Q17 3Q18 4Q18
Avg C&C Realizations ($/BBL) Excluding Derivatives $55.46 $68.51 $56.01 Including Derivatives $54.70 $62.81 $54.51
*U.S. adjusted for divestitures of 5 MBOED in 4Q17 and 2 MBOED in 3Q18 **International available for sale volumes adjusted for divestitures/held for sale of 37 MBOED in 4Q17, 3 MBOED in 3Q18, and 3 MBOED in 4Q18. Sales volumes adjusted for divestitures/held for sale of 36 MBOED in 4Q17, 4 MBOED in 3Q18, and 3 MBOED in 4Q18
MBOED
International Divestiture-Adj. Volumes**
117 117 112 108 102 106
25 50 75 100 125 4Q 17 3Q 18 4Q 18
Avg C&C Realizations ($/BBL)*** $54.03 $64.08 $58.25
*** Adjusted the average C&C by $7.29 to exclude Libya in 4Q17 Cumulative underlift of (138) MBOE in E.G., and cumulative
Sales Available for Sale
4Q17 3Q18 4Q18
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58% 22% 20% 24% 28% 48% 88% 6%6% 59% 18% 23%
Crude Oil/Condensate NGLs Natural Gas
Eagle Ford Oklahoma Bakken Total U.S. Resource Plays 54% 19% 27% Northern Delaware
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Budget reconciliation $MM
2018 Budget 2018 Actual Cash additions to Property, Plant and Equipment 2,753 Working Capital associated with PPE (68) Property, Plant and Equipment additions 2,685 M&S Inventory (6) REx expenditures included in capital expenditures (388) Exploration costs other than well costs (5) Development Capital 2,300 2,286
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