2018 CCIM President Carole Brill, CCIM 2018 Commercial Real - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2018

CCIM President

Carole Brill, CCIM

2018

Commercial Real Estate Forecasts

Presented by Melissa Molyneaux

Melissa Molyneaux, SIOR, CCIM Senior Vice President | Executive Managing Director Office Services Colliers International, Reno Melissa.Molyneaux@colliers.com 775-823-4674

Key Takeaways Owners improving their assets with lobby remodels Improving statistics year over year Positive absorption due to significant leases/sales

Absorption

(20,000) (10,000)

• 10,000

20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 1Q 2017 2Q 2017 3Q 2017 Net Absorption

Vacancy Rate

16.1% 15.9% 15.2% 14.5% 14.7% 13.1% 12.3% 11.8% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0% 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 1Q 2017 2Q 2017 3Q 2017

Significant Leases

Address SF Tenant Type

885 Trademark Drive, 1st & 2nd Floor (partial) 29,490 PODS Enterprises New 885 Trademark Drive, Suite 200 16,697 Elemental LED New 9480 Double Diamond Parkway 16,611 Spine Nevada New 50 South Virginia Street 14,000 SWITCH New 10345 Professional Circle, 2nd Floor 12,823 Guild Mortgage New 2195 S Virginia Street, 1st Floor 12,500 Park Lane Sales Office New 6160 Plumas Street, Suite 200 10,721 R&R Holdings New 9850 Double R Boulevard, Suite 100 10,719 Cisco Systems Renewal 604 W Moana Lane 10,484 Nevada System of Higher Education New 5390 Kietzke Lane, Suite 102 10,421 Nevada State Contractors Board New

Rental Rates

$0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.60 $1.80 $2.00 Downtown South Meadows Meadowood Central/Airport Sparks West Reno

2018 Planned & Potential Construction

Planned McKenzie Properties is building a 40,000 sf spec building off Kietzke and Neil @ Mountain View Corporate Center Charles Schwab is breaking ground on a BTS/Spec building in Rancharrah. Two buildings are under construction: Urology Group on Kietzke and an Oncology Group on Longley Potential Tanamera Construction may be constructing medical space in Reno Corporate Center (Longley Lane)

Significant Sales

Address SF Sale Price PSF

645 N Arlington Avenue 189,828 $66,200,000.00 $348.74 1 East Liberty Street 84,151 $18,300,000.00 $217.47 6005 Plumas Street 37,410 $6,900,000.00 $184.44 1 California Avenue 23,266 $3,075,000.00 $132.17 6140 Plumas Street 21,866 $2,906,000.00 $132.90 175 Salomon Circle 16,467 $2,900,000.00 $176.11 5595 Kietzke Lane 10,752 $3,194,000.00 $297.06 241 Ridge Street* 34,407 $5,781,247.00 $168.03 201 West Liberty Street* 28,557 $5,647,698.00 $197.77 100 & 140 Washington Street* 24,464 $4,564,935.00 $186.60 275 Hill Street* 23,441 $4,156,120.00 $177.30 1301 Cordone Avenue* 25,543 $2,200,000.00 $86.13

*Part of Portfolio Sale

2018 Office Forecast

Rents Vacancy Absorption Construction

CCIM 2018 Vacancy Forecast = 8.8%

Melissa Molyneaux, SIOR, CCIM Senior Vice President | Executive Managing Director Office Services Colliers International, Reno Melissa.Molyneaux@colliers.com 775-823-4674

2018

Commercial Real Estate Forecasts

Presented by Matt Harris

Presented by: Matthew Harris Contributers: David Schuster Ronald Sheehan

Data Provided by Costar

Percentage Leased

93%

Market Direct Vacancy Rate 7.0%

Occupancy Rate

Current Market Vacancy Rate 8.1% US Vacancy Rate 5.1% Boise Vacancy Rate 3.5% Sacramento Vacancy Rate 6.1%

FUN FACT CT!

In 2017, Northern Nevada's Industrial market had more sublet space available than any other market in the United States Costar reported available sublet space to be 2.5 MSF. Next closest market Dallas Ft Worth 2.2 MSF with a total market size 869 MSF, over 8 times larger than ours.

Leasing Activity

9.2 Million Square Feet

Net Absorption

3 Million Square Feet

Average Asking Rental Rate

$4.86 PSF

Warehouse Average $4.36 PSF Flex Space Average $9.25 PSF

Average Sales Price

$64.00 PSF

Total Sales Volume

121 Million

Increased

Total Square Feet For Sale

1.7 Million Square Feet FOR SALE

Construction Starts

5 year low!

Sub-Market Maps

Fernley Tahoe Reno Industrial Center

2018 Expectations

Gross Absorption Sales Volume Construction Deliveries Rental Rate + Sales Price Overall Market Vacancy 6.8%

2018

Commercial Real Estate Forecasts

Presented by Trevor Richardson

Reno Multifamily Report

Prepared By: Trevor Richardson Dickson Commercial Group

Prepared for CCIM 2018 Forcast Event DCG Multifamily 2018

2017 Multifamily Overview

Tenants

| Higher rents | Less options

Rents

Dramatic Gains

Owners

| High income | Sales prices | Demand

Reno 2017 Rent Growth

14% rate increase

Reno 2016 Rent Growth

11.8% rate increase Reno, NV Colorado Springs, CO Palm Bay, FL Ventura Counta, CA Richmond, VA Vallejo/Napa, CA

National Rental Trends

Secondary Markets Spokane, WA Tucson, AZ Fresno, CA Birmingham, AL New Orleans, LA 14% 5%

Apartment Rental Rate Growth 01

Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 $1,054 $1,066 $1,111 $1,194 $1,202

$1,202

Q3’17 Reno Multifamily Average Rental Rate

2017 RENT GROWTH

DCG Multifamily 2018

Apartment Occupancy

2.24%

Represents around 2 weeks of market turn time

Apartment Vacancy 01

Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 2.24% 2.93% 2.30% 1.17% 2.24%

$129K

Average $/Unit

2,020

Units Sold

80+ Units

$87K

Average $/Unit

1,098

Units Sold

2-79 Units

Large Multi Small Multi 2017 Multifamily Sales 02

10%

Average $/Unit

21%

Percentage Decrease

80+ Units

12%

Average $/Unit

64%

Percentage Increase

2-79 Units

2016 to 2017 Sales Trends 2017 Multifamily Sales 02

2017 Multifamily Sales 02

1 2

2016 &2017 Large Multifamily Sales Scatter Chart

1

| Downtown | Urban | 5.5% Cap

2

| South Reno | Garden | 5% Cap 1 | $198k/UNIT 2 | $158k/UNIT

3rd St Flats The Verge

Reno/Sparks Multifamily Construction 03

Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 8368 10071 11185 10599 Q315 Q316 Q415 Q116 Q216 3729 6591 7360 8784 8466

10,599

Q3’17 Reno multifamily total units planned and under construction

Under Construction

Reno/Sparks Multifamily Construction 03

3,762 Planned Construction 6,837

2.5% $1,275

Vacancy Average Rent

2018 Multifamily Forecast

Thank you.

DCG Multifamily 2018

2018

Commercial Real Estate Forecasts

Presented by Ian Cochrane

2018 Retail Forecast

Ian Cochran, CCIM Retail Leasing, Sales, & Investment Specialist

WW WWW.SVN.COM

2017… Where did it go!

The market velocity nearly doubled in 2017, creating what seemed like a mad dash to secure properties for investment and leasing alike.

SVN INTERNATIONAL CORP.

WW WWW.SVN.COM

2017 was a great year for leasing and investment sales

SVN INTERNATIONAL CORP.

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2017 Notable Investment Sales

SVN INTERNATIONAL CORP.

RCG Ventures $40 Million ($120/SF) Tolles Development $16.5 Million ($221/SF) Kimco Realty $24.1 Million ($291/SF) Land Cap $18.6 Million ($125/SF)

WW WWW.SVN.COM

2017 Notable Lease Transactions

23,500 SF at Del Monte Plaza 30,000 SF at South Meadows Promenade 30,000 SF at Sparks Galleria 40,000 SF at Sparks Galleria 25,000 SF at Northtowne Marketplace 20,000 SF at Spanish Springs Center

WW WWW.SVN.COM

Development in Reno-Sparks Area

South Meadows Promenade The Outlets at Legends 80,160 SF New Construction 40,000 SF Build to Suit 20,000 SF Spec Build

WW WWW.SVN.COM

The Reno Market By The Numbers

Absorption Vacancy Rate New Construction Lease Rates & Sales Prices

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Looking Ahead to 2018

Absorption Vacancy Rate New Construction Lease Rates & Sales Prices

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2018 Vacancy & Rent Prediction

Vacancy Rate Lease Rate 8% $1.55/SF

2018

Commercial Real Estate Forecasts

Presented by CCIM