2018 CCIM President Carole Brill, CCIM
2018 Commercial Real Estate Forecasts Presented by Melissa Molyneaux
Melissa Molyneaux, SIOR, CCIM Senior Vice President | Executive Managing Director Office Services Colliers International, Reno Melissa.Molyneaux@colliers.com 775-823-4674
Key Takeaways Owners improving their assets with lobby remodels Improving statistics year over year Positive absorption due to significant leases/sales Colliers International
Absorption 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - (10,000) (20,000) 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 Net Absorption Colliers International
Vacancy Rate 20.0% 19.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.1% 15.9% 16.0% 15.2% 14.7% 14.5% 15.0% 14.0% 13.1% 13.0% 12.3% 11.8% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 1Q 2017 2Q 2017 3Q 2017 Colliers International
Significant Leases Address SF Tenant Type 885 Trademark Drive, 1 st & 2 nd Floor 29,490 PODS Enterprises New (partial) 885 Trademark Drive, Suite 200 16,697 Elemental LED New 9480 Double Diamond Parkway 16,611 Spine Nevada New 50 South Virginia Street 14,000 SWITCH New 10345 Professional Circle, 2 nd Floor 12,823 Guild Mortgage New 2195 S Virginia Street, 1 st Floor 12,500 Park Lane Sales Office New 6160 Plumas Street, Suite 200 10,721 R&R Holdings New 9850 Double R Boulevard, Suite 100 10,719 Cisco Systems Renewal Nevada System of 604 W Moana Lane 10,484 New Higher Education Nevada State 5390 Kietzke Lane, Suite 102 10,421 New Contractors Board Colliers International
Rental Rates $2.00 $1.80 $1.60 $1.40 $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 Downtown South Meadows Meadowood Central/Airport Sparks West Reno Colliers International
2018 Planned & Potential Construction Planned McKenzie Properties is building a 40,000 sf spec building off Kietzke and Neil @ Mountain View Corporate Center Charles Schwab is breaking ground on a BTS/Spec building in Rancharrah. Two buildings are under construction: Urology Group on Kietzke and an Oncology Group on Longley Potential Tanamera Construction may be constructing medical space in Reno Corporate Center (Longley Lane) Colliers International
Significant Sales Address SF Sale Price PSF 645 N Arlington Avenue 189,828 $66,200,000.00 $348.74 1 East Liberty Street 84,151 $18,300,000.00 $217.47 6005 Plumas Street 37,410 $6,900,000.00 $184.44 1 California Avenue 23,266 $3,075,000.00 $132.17 6140 Plumas Street 21,866 $2,906,000.00 $132.90 175 Salomon Circle 16,467 $2,900,000.00 $176.11 5595 Kietzke Lane 10,752 $3,194,000.00 $297.06 241 Ridge Street* 34,407 $5,781,247.00 $168.03 201 West Liberty Street* 28,557 $5,647,698.00 $197.77 100 & 140 Washington Street* 24,464 $4,564,935.00 $186.60 275 Hill Street* 23,441 $4,156,120.00 $177.30 1301 Cordone Avenue* 25,543 $2,200,000.00 $86.13 *Part of Portfolio Sale Colliers International
2018 Office Forecast Rents CCIM 2018 Vacancy Vacancy Forecast = 8.8% Absorption Construction Colliers International
Melissa Molyneaux, SIOR, CCIM Senior Vice President | Executive Managing Director Office Services Colliers International, Reno Melissa.Molyneaux@colliers.com 775-823-4674
2018 Commercial Real Estate Forecasts Presented by Matt Harris
Presented by: Matthew Harris Contributers: David Schuster Ronald Sheehan Data Provided by Costar
Percentage Leased 93% Market Direct Vacancy Rate 7.0%
Occupancy Rate Current Market Vacancy Rate 8.1% US Vacancy Rate 5.1% Boise Vacancy Rate 3.5% Sacramento Vacancy Rate 6.1%
FUN FACT CT! In 2017, Northern Nevada's Industrial market had more sublet space available than any other market in the United States Costar reported available sublet space to be 2.5 MSF. Next closest market Dallas Ft Worth 2.2 MSF with a total market size 869 MSF, over 8 times larger than ours.
Leasing Activity 9.2 Million Square Feet
Net Absorption 3 Million Square Feet
Average Asking Rental Rate $4.86 PSF Warehouse Average $4.36 PSF Flex Space Average $9.25 PSF
$64.00 Average Sales Price PSF
Total Sales Volume 121 Increased Million
Total Square Feet For Sale 1.7 Million Square Feet FOR SALE
Construction Starts 5 year low!
Sub-Market Maps Fernley Tahoe Reno Industrial Center
2018 Expectations Gross Absorption Sales Volume Construction Deliveries Rental Rate + Sales Price Overall Market Vacancy 6.8%
2018 Commercial Real Estate Forecasts Presented by Trevor Richardson
Prepared for CCIM 2018 Forcast Event DCG Multifamily 2018 Reno Multifamily Report Prepared By: Trevor Richardson Dickson Commercial Group
2017 Owners Multifamily | High income Overview | Sales prices | Demand Tenants Rents | Higher rents Dramatic Gains | Less options
Secondary Markets National Rental Trends Reno 2016 Rent Growth Reno 2017 Rent 14% rate increase 11.8% rate increase Growth Reno, NV Colorado Springs, CO Palm Bay, FL Ventura Counta, CA Richmond, VA Vallejo/Napa, CA Spokane, WA Tucson, AZ Fresno, CA Birmingham, AL New Orleans, LA 14% 5%
$1,202 $1,194 Apartment Rental Rate $1,111 Growth 01 $1,066 $1,054 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 $1,202 Q3’17 Reno Multifamily Average Rental Rate
DCG Multifamily 2018 2017 RENT GROWTH
Apartment Vacancy 2.93% 2.24% 01 2.24% 2.30% 1.17% Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Apartment Occupancy 2.24% Represents around 2 weeks of market turn time
Large Multi Small Multi 2017 Multifamily 2,020 1,098 Sales 02 Units Sold Units Sold 80+ Units 2-79 Units $129K $87K Average $/Unit Average $/Unit
2016 to 2017 Sales Trends 2017 Multifamily 21% 64% Sales 02 Percentage Decrease Percentage Increase 80+ Units 2-79 Units 10% 12% Average $/Unit Average $/Unit
1 2016 &2017 Large Multifamily Sales Scatter Chart 2017 2 Multifamily Sales 1 | $198k/UNIT 02 2 | $158k/UNIT 3rd St Flats The Verge 1 2 | Downtown | South Reno | Urban | Garden | 5.5% Cap | 5% Cap
Reno/Sparks 11185 10599 10071 Multifamily 8784 8466 8368 7360 Construction 6591 03 3729 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q3’17 Reno multifamily 10,599 total units planned and under construction
Reno/Sparks Multifamily Construction Under 3,762 03 Construction Planned 6,837 Construction
2018 Multifamily Average Rent Forecast $1,275 Vacancy 2.5%
DCG Multifamily 2018 Thank you.
2018 Commercial Real Estate Forecasts Presented by Ian Cochrane
2018 Retail Forecast Ian Cochran, CCIM Retail Leasing, Sales, & Investment Specialist
2017 … Where did it go! The market velocity nearly doubled in 2017, creating what seemed like a mad dash to secure properties for investment and leasing alike. SVN INTERNATIONAL CORP. WW WWW.SVN.COM
2017 was a great year for leasing and investment sales SVN INTERNATIONAL CORP. WW WWW.SVN.COM
2017 Notable Investment Sales RCG Ventures Tolles Development $40 Million ($120/SF) $16.5 Million ($221/SF) Land Cap Kimco Realty $18.6 Million ($125/SF) $24.1 Million ($291/SF) SVN INTERNATIONAL CORP. WW WWW.SVN.COM
2017 Notable Lease Transactions 23,500 SF at Del Monte Plaza 40,000 SF at Sparks Galleria 25,000 SF at Northtowne Marketplace 30,000 SF at South Meadows Promenade 30,000 SF at Sparks Galleria 20,000 SF at Spanish Springs Center WW WWW.SVN.COM
Development in Reno-Sparks Area South Meadows Promenade The Outlets at Legends 80,160 SF New Construction 20,000 SF Spec Build 40,000 SF Build to Suit WW WWW.SVN.COM
The Reno Market By The Numbers Lease Rates & Absorption Sales Prices Vacancy Rate New Construction WW WWW.SVN.COM
Looking Ahead to 2018 Lease Rates & Absorption Sales Prices Vacancy Rate New Construction WW WWW.SVN.COM
2018 Vacancy & Rent Prediction Vacancy Rate 8% Lease Rate $1.55/SF WW WWW.SVN.COM
2018 Commercial Real Estate Forecasts Presented by CCIM
Recommend
More recommend
