2018 General Election A Pundits/Pollsters Perspective July 26, 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2018 General Election A Pundit’s/Pollster’s Perspective

July 26, 2018 By Bill Ballenger & Steve Mitchell

Providing Historical Context

Open Gubernatorial Campaigns And Mid‐Term Election

Under the 1963 MI Constitution, every time there has been an open race for governor, the party out of power has won.

Mid‐Term Elections Party Not Holding White House Wins U.S Senate House and Senate Seats

Lyndon Johnson – 1966 Job Approval: 44% House: -47 Senate: -4 Ronald Reagan – 1982 Job Approval: 42% House: -26 Senate: +1 Bill Clinton – 1994 Job Approval: 48% House: -52 Senate: -8 Barack Obama – 2010 Job Approval: 45% House: -63 Senate: -6

Political Landscape

Job Approval Ratings

• f

Trump and Snyder.

Snyder Job Approval

49% 56% 58% 36% 42% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018

Approve

Approve

Trump Job Approval

43% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2018 Michigan Averages RCP National Poll Averages 44%

Energy Issues

• Energy issues generally are not high “top of

mind” issues to voters.

• When their electricity is off, NOTHING is more
• important. But when asked what is the most

important issue facing the state, less than 2% say energy or “global warming” or “climate change.”

Flint Water Crisis

• This has been a huge issue, but may not prove

to be an effective issue for Democrats to use against Republicans in the election.

• Attorney General Bill Schuette, the likely GOP

nominee, was seemingly not part of the problem.

• It will be hard to blame GOP lawmakers for

what was a Snyder Administration issue.

Election Issues

• Issues cited post‐office by voters are:

– Roads/Bridges/Infrastructure 49% – Education/Quality/Funding 42% – Jobs/Economy/Wages 34% – Auto Insurance Rates 23% – School Safety 18% – Healthcare 17% – Health Insurance Access 17% – Taxes 11% *MRG Poll N=600 3/15‐17/18 (They could name 2 issues)

Likely Republican Gubernatorial Nominee 2018

• Lt. Gov. Brian Calley
• Attorney General

Bill Schuette

Likely Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee 2018

• Shri Thanadar

Businessman

• Gretchen Witmer

Former MI Senate Minority Leader

Secretary of State/Attorney General

• Both Attorney General Bill Schuette and

Secretary of State Ruth Johnson are term limited and ineligible to run for another term.

Bill Schuette Ruth Johnson

Democratic Attorney General Candidate

Dana Nessel

Republican Attorney General Candidates

Tom Leonard Tonya Schuitemaker

GOP Candidates for Secretary of State

Stan Grot Mary Treder Lang

• Active in Republican politics serving as a

Precinct Delegate, raising money for candidates

• Served as a member of the State

Committee, where she chaired the Budget Committee

• Past Chairman of the Macomb

County Republican Party

• Currently the 10th Congressional

District Republican Chairman.

Democratic Candidate for Secretary of State

Jocelyn Benson

• Narrowly lost

election to be SOS in 2010

• Former Dean

at Wayne State Law School

U.S. Senate/U.S. House of Representatives Party Affiliation

• There are currently:
• 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and 2 Independent

in the U.S. Senate.

• 237 Republicans, 192 Democrats, and 6 vacant seats

in the House of Representatives.

U.S. Senate/U.S. House of Representatives in Michigan

• Both Michigan U.S. Senators are Democrats – Debbie

Stabenow and Gary Peters

• There are 9 Republicans and 5 Democrats in the U.S. House
• f Representatives.
• The most heated General Election battle in 2018 will likely

be in the 8th CD – Mike Bishop (R) in Oakland, Livingston, Ingham, and 11th CD Open (Trott (R) retiring) in Oakland , Wayne and perhaps 7th CD (Walberg (R) Mid-Michigan.

• There are also strong Primary Elections in CD 13 (Conyers

resignation) and CD 9 (Levin retiring).

Democrat for U.S. Senate

• Sen. Debbie Stabenow

Running for 4th 6‐Year Term

Raised: $13.2 million COH: $8.8 million

Top GOP U.S. Senate Candidates

• John James

Iraqi War Pilot Businessman

• Sandy Pensler

Businessman

Raised: $5 million COH: $4 million Raised: $2.1 million COH: $1.2 million

Map of MI 8th Congressional District

Michigan’s 8th Congressional District

Mike Bishop (R)

• Raised: $2.1 million
• COH: $1.7 million
• Republican
• Former MI Senate

Majority Leader

• U.S Congressman

since 2015

Elissa Slotkin (D)

• Raised: $2.9 million
• COH: $1.34 million
• Democrat
• Former Defense

Department Official and Intelligence Analyst

Lokesh Kumar (R) Chris Smith (D)

Raised: $123,000 COH: $42,000

Map of Michigan’s 11th District

GOP Candidates 11th CD

Lena Epstein - $1.03 million Klint Kesto Raised: $218,000 COH: $145,000 Kerry Bentivolio Raised: $428,000 COH: $20,000 Raised: $28,000 COH: $85 Raised: $1.6 million COH: $658,000 Rocky Raczkowski Mike Kowall

Democratic Candidate 11th CD

Suneel Gupta Haley Stevens Fayrouz Saad Tim Greimel Nancy Skinner

Raised: $1 million COH: $340,000 Raised $1.3 million COH: $800,000 Raised: $636,000 COH: $314,000 Raised: $816,000 COH: $456,000

Who All U.S. House Races Will Be About

Donald Trump Nancy Pelosi

Map of Michigan’s 9th District Democratic Primary

Michigan’s 9th District Democratic Primary

Andy Levin Raised: $864,000 COH: $431,000 Ellen Cogen Lipton Raised: $1 million COH: $625,000 Martin Brook Raised: $32,000 COH: $17,000

Map of Michigan’s 13th District Democratic Primary

Michigan’s 13th District Democratic Primary

• Ian Conyers

Raised: $181,000 COH: $61,000

• John Conyers III

Raised: $3,100 COH: -$600

• Shanelle Jackson
• Brenda Jones

Raised: $168,000 COH: $53,700

• Rashida Tlaib
• Bill Wild*(only white candidate)
• Coleman Young II

Raised: $31,000 COH: $5,500

Michigan State Senate and House of Representatives

Michigan Senate Breakdown

• There are currently 38 Michigan

State Senators

• 27 Republican
• 11 Democrat
• 1 Democrat Vacancy

Michigan House of Representatives

• All 110 seats are up for election this year.
• The Republicans control the Michigan

House by a 63-47 margin.

• Up to 13 seats will be competitive in 2018.
• With that in mind, I believe House

Republicans will retain control again in 2018, though they will lose seats.

State Legislature ‐ Speaker Leonard and Senate Majority Leader Meekhof are term limited and unable to run in 2018

Arlan Meeekhof Tom Leonard Speaker of the House Senate Majority Leader

Future Speaker & Majority Leader Republicans

• Sen. Mike Shirkey
• Rep. Lee Chatfield

Majority Leader Speaker

Important Races To MEGA

• Gary Glenn versus Kevin Daley GOP Primary
• Tom Barrett versus Brett Roberts GOP Primary
• Winner versus Kelly Rossman‐McKinney
• Aric Nesbitt versus Bob Genetski GOP Primary
• Bill LaVoy (D) versus Dale Zorn (R)
• Ken Horn(R) versus Henry GaudreauorPhil Phelps (D)
• Ray Franz versus Bruce Rendon and Curt VanDerwall
• Scott Dianda (D) versus Ed McBroom (R)

MI Supreme Court

• There are 2 Republican justices up for election and 2

Democrats running for the Michigan Supreme Court on the November 8 non-partisan ballot.

MI Supreme Court Republicans

Kurtis Wilder Beth Clement

Former Legal Council appointed by Governor Snyder in 2017 Former MI Court

• f Appeals Judge

appointed by Governor Snyder in 2017

MI Supreme Court Democrat Candidates

Megan Cavanagh

• Daughter of former Justice Mike

Cavanagh

• Graduate of University of MI College
• f Engineering and Wayne State

University Law School

Sam Bagenstos

University of Michigan professor

2018 Ballot Proposals

Committee Name Support/Oppose Ballot Proposal Description Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol Support To allow under state law the personal possession and use of marijuana by persons 21 years of age or older Voters Not Politicians Support Create an independent citizens redistricting commission Michigan One Fair Wage Support Gradually increase the hourly minimum wage from $10.00 in 2019 to $12.00 in 2022 MI Time to Care Support Requires employers to provide employees with paid sick leave Voting Rights Policies Initiative Support Creates state constitutional rights to certain voting policies

Thank You

Bill Ballenger and Steve Mitchell Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. 314 Evergreen Suite B, East Lansing, MI 48823 steve@mitchellresearch.net Office: 517‐351‐4111 Cell: 248‐891‐2414