2017 Congressional Update Presented by: Donald R. Cravins, Jr SVP - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2017 Congressional Update

Presented by: Donald R. Cravins, Jr SVP for Policy/ED Washington Bureau dcravins@nul.org @dcravins

Congressional Leadership

• f the

115th Congress

2

Senate Majority Leadership

1.

• 1. Mi

Mitch McC McConnell (R-KY) Y) Position: Senate Majority Leader

• 2. Jo

John Cor

• rnyn (R-TX)

Po Position: Senate Majority Whip

• 3. Joh

John Thu hune (R-S.D.) Po Position: Senate Republican Conference Chairman 4. . Joh John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) Po Position: Senate Republican Policy Committee Chairman 5.

• 5. Roy

Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) Position: Senate Republican Conference vice chairman

• 6. Cory Gardner (R-CO)

CO) Position: National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman

3

Senate Majority Leadership

• 1. Charles “Chuck” Schumer (D-NY)

Y) Position: Senate Minority Leader

• 2. Dick

ck Du Durbin (D-IL) Po Position: Senate Democratic Whip

• 3. Pat

Patty Mu Murray (D-WA) Position: Assistant Democratic Leader

• 4. De

Debbie Sta Stabenow (D-MI) Position: Chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee 9 Chris Va Van Holl Hollen (D (D-MD) Position: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman 5. . El Elizabeth Wa Warr rren (D (D-MA) Position: Vice Chair of the Democratic Conference

• 6. Mar

Mark Wa Warner er (D-VA) Position: Vice Chair of the Democratic Conference 7. . Amy Amy Klobuchar (D (D- MN MN) Position: Chair of Steering Committee 8. . Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Position: Chair of Outreach

Senate Majority Leadership

4

Senate Minority Leadership

House Majority Leadership

1.

• 1. Pa

Paul Ry Ryan(WI-1) 1) Position: Speaker of the House

• 2. Kevin McCa

McCarth thy (CA-23) 23) Po Position: House Majority Leader 3.

• 3. Ste

Steve Sc Scalise (LA-1 ) Po Position: House Republican Whip 4. . Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA WA- 5) Po Position: Republican Conference Vice Chair 6. . Steve Stivers (OH-15) Position: National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman

• 5. Luke Mes

Messer r (IN-6) 6) Position: Republican Policy Committee Chairman

5

House Majority Leadership

REPUBLICAN FACTIONS

Opposing factions in the Republican Party threaten to impede its ability to form a majority in the House

If Dems maintain unity, GOP can only lose 22 votes

May 30, 2017 | Daniel Stublen

Republicans 239 Tuesday Group ~52 Freedom Caucus ~30 Democrats 193 Vacancies 3

Sources: National Journal Research, 2017.

Whip stats (four vacancies)

• Republicans hold a 46-seat lead
• A majority requires 217 votes (if all members cast a ballot)

More conservative caucuses Free reedom Caucu cus (~30 members)

• Farthest-right group of Republicans
• Chair, Mark Meadows (R-NC11)

Hou House Liberty Caucu cus (~35 members)

• Libertarian wing of the Republican party
• Chair, Justin Amash (R-MI03)

Re Republican Study Committee (~170 members)

• Strong conservatives, limited spending and traditional values
• Chair, Mark Walker (R-NC06)

Moderate caucuses Tue uesday Gro roup (~50 members)

• Moderate fiscal conservatism and more socially liberal
• Co-chairs, Charlie Dent (R-PA15), Elise Stefanik (R-NY21)
• Tom MacArthur (R-NJ03) recently resigned as co-

chair after the contentious AHCA vote Re Republican Ma Main St Street Pa Partnership (65 representatives, 4 senators)

• More centrist, attempts to form bipartisan initiatives
• Chair, Amory “Amo” Houghton (R-NY29, retired)

Freedom Caucus Moderate Republicans Tuesday Group Vacancies Majority line

• 1. Nancy

cy Pe Pelosi (CA-12) Position: House Democratic Leader

• 2. Ste

teny Hoy Hoyer (MD-5) 5) Po Position: House Democratic Whip 3.

• 3. Ja

James Clyburn (SC SC-6) Po Position: Assistant Democratic Leader

• 4. Jos

Joseph Cro rowley (NY-14) Po Position: House Democratic Caucus Chairman

House Majority Leadership

7

House Minority Leadership

Congressional Black Caucus Leadership

• 1. Cedric

c Ri Rich chmond (LA-2) 2) Position: Chairman

• 2. An

Andre Carson (IN-7) 7) Po Position: Vice Chairman

• 3. Karen Bass (CA- 37)

37) Po Position: Vice Chairman

• 4. Brenda Lawren

rence ce (MI MI -14) Po Position: Secretary

• 5. Gwen Mo

Moore (WI WI-4) 4) Po Position: Whip

8

Congressional Black Caucus Leadership

Freedom Caucus Progressive Caucus

HOUSE CAUCUSES

Moderates in the House form a strong majority over each party’s farthest wings

House makeup by caucus membership

June 5, 2017 | Daniel Stublen

Hou House Re Republican Conference ce 239 Freedom Caucus 30* Tuesday Group 50* Republican Study Committee 170* Republican Main Street Partnership 65* Hou House De Democratic Caucus 193 Blue Dog Coalition 17 New Democrat Coalition 61 Progressive Caucus 70 Va Vaca cancies 3

*Estimated caucus size; rosters have not been finalized and published for the 115th Congress. The House Freedom Caucus does not publish its member list. Sources: National Journal Research, 2017.

Moderate Republicans Moderate Democrats Tuesday Group Blue Dog Coalition Vacancies 70 106 17 50 30 159 Whip stats

• Republicans hold a 46-seat lead
• A majority requires 217 votes (if all

members cast a ballot)

• If Republicans lose all Freedom Caucus

votes, they require 7 centrist Democratic votes to form a majority

2018 Congressional Elections Landscape

10

Presidential Approval Ratings

45% 43% 41% 40% 42% 43% 42% 37% 40% 43% 40% 40%

30% 40% 50% 60%

President Trump’s Approval Ratings, Jan. 20th - present

Gallup: June 5

• 11
• 2
• 8

2

• 6
• 54
• 18
• 26
• 54
• 8
• 63
• 175
• 150
• 125
• 100
• 75
• 50
• 25

25 50 75 100 125 150

1946 1954 1982 2002 1994

SENATE HOUSE SENATE HOUSE HOUSE SENATE HOUSE SENATE

Gain or loss for president’s party in first midterm of presidency:

61% Approve 33% Approve 42% Approve 63% Approve 48% Approve

HOUSE

Gallup

SENATE HOUSE

45% Approve

2010

SENATE

Since the Civil War, President’s party has lost seats in 36 of 39 midterms - losing an average of 33 seats Since 1914, President’s party has lost Senate seats in 20 out of 25 midterm elections Presidential Approval Ratings

2016 Presidential Election

12 7 55 6 3 4 6 11 3 9 5 38 3 3 5 6 7 6 10 6 10 8 10 20 16 11 18 16 9 6 11 8 29 9 15 13 5 20 29 4 3

4 MA 12 RI 4 CT 7 NJ 15 DE 3 MD 10 DC 3 VT 3 NH 4

Clinton: 232 EVs (States) Trump: 306 EVs (States)

1

Clinton beat Trump by nearly 7M votes in CA, MA & NY (65-35% margin). In the other 47 states (plus DC), Trump received 4M more votes (winning 52% - 48%).

County Breakdown

1519 1526 674 583 875 693 468 1582 1587 2439 2536 2238 2420 2600

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

29 43 73 78 70 69 88 86 88 71 57 27 22 30 31 12 14 12

25 50 75 100

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

All Counties 100 Largest Counties

8th consecutive Presidential Election within 10 points

Uncompetitive Counties

Counties where presidential candidates won the two-party popular vote by more than 20 percentage points:

Cook Political Report

In 1992, 1,096 counties were decided by single-digit margins. In 2016, only 303 counties had close margins. Along the Acela Corridor and Pacific Coast, Democrats hold a 98-33 House Seat advantage over Republicans. In the other 40 states, Republicans hold 208 seats to Democrats’ 96. In these same 40 states, Donald Trump won 306 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 80.

Landslides Everywhere

Share of U.S. voters living in counties where either major-party candidate won by a margin of:

Cook Political Report

The number of “extreme landslide” counties – those in which one presidential candidate won by more than 50 percentage points – rose from 93 in 1992 to 1,196 in 2016

Competitive Seats Only 33 competitive House seats in 2016 – a greater than 80 percent drop

Single Party Representation

Data provided by Smart Politics

The last time Congress had 15 states represented by only one political party in both chambers was 1957

23 12

405 35 405 34 49 352 83 352

Partisan Divide

Republicans in Clinton districts Democrats in Trump districts

111th Congress: 2009 115th Congress: 2017

Districts split between Congressional representation and presidential preference:

Republicans in Obama districts Democrats in McCain districts

Only 1 Dem (Collin Peterson) remains from a McCain dist. First time in 100+ years that percentage of split districts has been in single digits in consecutive elections

16% 29% 38% 41%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

1994 2004 2014 2016

17% 21% 43% 45%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

1994 2004 2014 2016

Pew Research Center | 2016

55% 58%

View the opposing party “very unfavorably” & as a “threat to the nation’s well being”:

Partisan Politics 41% of Dems view Republican policies as a

• threat. More than 1/2 of Dems (55%) say

the Republican Party makes them “afraid.” 45% of Republicans view Dem policies as a

• threat. 58% of Republicans have a very

unfavorable impression of the Dem Party.

Party Makeup of the 115th Congress

21

46 52

Senate

Independents 2 Democrats Gained 2 Seats

Composition of 115th Congress

Presidential/Senate Vote

Daily Kos Elections

Every state with a 2016 Senate race voted for the same party in both the Senate and presidential contest – a first ever

2018 Senate Map

25 Democrats* 9 Republicans

WA CA NV AZ MT MO PA IN NY HI WI OH FL MI MN UT WY TX TN MS NE NM WV VA MA VT* CT MD DE ME* RI NJ ND

3.9 20.5 1.0 35.8 15.5 19.1 12.8 1.2 5.5 18.9 5.6 0.8 5.2 8.1 8.9 0.7

Most Democratic seats in 50 years

19.9 0.3

AL

24 41.7

MT MO IN WV ND

Trump States: Margin over 10%

Trump States: Margin under 10%

PA WI OH FL MI

Clinton State

NV

194 241

House Democrats gained net +6

1/3 House Dems come from 3 states: California, Massachusetts & New York

32 Seats 42 Seats

10 Highly Vulnerable MOCs 10 Highly Vulnerable MOCs 2 Vulnerable MOCs 11 Vulnerable MOCs 15 Potentially Vulnerable MOCs 12 Potentially Vulnerable MOCs 5 Open Seats 8 Open Seats

2018 Landscape: House

25 10 3 3 7 11

Likely Republican Lean Republican Toss up Lean Democrat Likely Democrat

Six 2018 House races are already considered ‘toss ups’

Crist (FL-13) Schneider (IL-10) Bustos (IL-17) Loebsack (IA-2) Peterson (MN-7) Kuster (NH-2) Suozzi (NY-3) Maloney (NY-18) Schrader (OR-5) Cartwright (PA-17) Kind (WI-3) O’Halleran (AZ-1) Bera (CA-7) Carbajal (CA-24) Murphy (FL-7) Nolan (MN-8) Kihuen (NV-40 Gottheimer (NJ-5) Issa (CA-49) Price (GA-6) Comstock (VA-10) Shea-Porter (NH-1) Rosen (NV-3) Walz (MN-1)* Denham (CA-10) Knight (CA-25) Coffman (CO-6) Curbelo (FL-26) Blum (IA-1) Lewis (MN-2) Bacon (NE-2) Faso (NY-19) Fitzpatrick (PA-8) Hurd (TX-23) McSally (AZ-2) Valadao (CA-21) Royce (CA-39) Walters (CA-45) Rohrbacher (CA-48) Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) Roskam (IL-60 Bost (IL-12) Young (IA-3) Yoder (KS-3) Poliquin (ME-2) Trott (MI-11) Paulsen (MN-3) Zinke (MT-AL) Lance (NJ-7) Frelinghuysen (NJ- 11) Tenney (NY-22) Katko (NY-24) Renacci (OH-16)* Costello (PA-6) Meehan (PA-7) Smucker (PA-16) Culberson (TX-7) Sessions (TX-32) Reichert (WA-8) Circled districts have special elections in 2017; Special elections not listed:

• KS-4
• CA-34
• SC-5

*Not seeking reelection Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to win the House Excludes all seats marked as ‘Solid Democrat’ or ‘Solid Republican’

Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to win the House.

Cook Political Report

Special Elections

CA MT KS GA SC

General Election: May 25 Greg Gianforte elected General Election: June 6 Jimmy Gomez elected General Election: June 20 Dem Jon Ossoff 48.1% General Election: June 20 Xavier Becerra Mike Pompeo -CIA General Election: April 11 Ron Estes elected 52.5% Ryan Zinke - Interior Tom Price - Health Mick Mulvaney - OMB

How well the president’s party’s candidate does in the special election depends on the president’s popularity at the moment the election was held.

QUESTIONS?

• Remember, this is one of several touches, not the only meeting with your Member

for the year.

• An effective advocacy organization will correspond with congressional members and

staff on a routine basis about legislation affecting their issue areas, but also will remain in steady contact, regardless of whether an immediate issue exists.

• Let the Member or Staffer know that you expect another touch/meeting in August
• FEEDBACK, FEEDBACK, FEEDBACK
• NULWB will reach out to for feedback from every meeting
• Need you to get into the habit of providing feedback after any and all meetings

with Members/staff