Congressional Budget Office October 30, 2019 Financial Regulation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Congressional Budget Office October 30, 2019 Financial Regulation and the Federal Budget A Joint Seminar by the Congressional Budget Office and the Congressional Research Service Michael Falkenheim, Senior Adviser, Financial Analysis Division

CBO How Policy Changes Related to Financial Regulation Affect Projections of the Federal Budget 1

CBO An Overview of Financial Regulation 2

CBO Budgetary Effects of Three Illustrative Policies, 2020 to 2029 * = between -$500 million and $500 million. 3

CBO Rates at Which Banks Failed or Received Federal Assistance, 1937 to 2017 4

CBO Direct Budgetary Effects of Three Illustrative Policies, 2020 to 2029 * = between -$500 million and zero. 5

CBO Increase in GDP Projected to Stem From the Illustrative Policies Under Baseline Economic Conditions, 2020 to 2029 6

CBO Actual and Potential GDP During and After the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009 Potential GDP is CBO’s estimate of the maximum sustainable output of the economy. 7

CBO The Effects of the 2007–2009 Financial Crises on Households and on State and Local Services Data are quarterly. 8

CBO CBO’s Projections of Real GDP Under Baseline Economic Conditions and During Financial Crises 9

CBO CBO’s Projections of Real GDP Under Baseline Economic Conditions and During Financial Crises If Orderly Liquidation Authority Was Eliminated 10

CBO Macroeconomic Feedback Under Baseline Economic Conditions, 2020 to 2029 CBO estimates that the effects of eliminating orderly liquidation authority on risk-taking would be offsetting; thus, the agency projects that implementing that policy would have no effect on the economy under baseline conditions. 11

CBO Macroeconomic Feedback Stemming From the Illustrative Policies’ Effects on the Likelihood and Severity of Financial Crises, 2020 to 2029 12

CBO Sensitivity of CBO’s Estimates of the Illustrative Policies’ Macroeconomic Feedback Under Baseline Economic Conditions, 2020 to 2029 13

CBO Sensitivity of CBO’s Estimates of the Macroeconomic Feedback Stemming From the Illustrative Policies’ Effects on the Likelihood and Severity of Financial Crises, 2020 to 2029 14

CBO Interactive Tool for Illustrating the Sensitivity of CBO’s Projections 15

CBO Computer Code Used to Generate the Estimates 16

CBO About This Document The slides from this presentation were drawn from the report Financial Regulation and the Federal Budget (September 2019). That report, the interactive tool, and the computer code used to generate the estimates are available on CBO’s website at www.cbo.gov/publication/55586. 17