February 17, 2016
2016 CAGNY Investor Presentation
For Investor Relations Purposes Only - CAGNY Conference, Feb. 17, 2016
2016 CAGNY Investor Presentation February 17, 2016 For Investor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2016 CAGNY Investor Presentation February 17, 2016 For Investor Relations Purposes Only - CAGNY Conference, Feb. 17, 2016 Management Team Participants Howard Willard Billy Gifford Chief Operating Officer Chief Financial Officer Jim Dillard
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Howard Willard Chief Operating Officer Billy Gifford Chief Financial Officer Jim Dillard SVP, Research, Development, Regulatory Affairs and Chief Innovation Officer Denise Keane EVP and General Counsel
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Statements, including earnings guidance, in this presentation that are not reported financial results
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements are based on current plans, estimates and expectations, and are not guarantees of future performance. They are based
which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the forward-looking statements. Altria undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward- looking statement other than in the normal course of its public disclosure obligations. The risks and uncertainties relating to the forward-looking statements in this presentation include those described under “Risk Factors” in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and under “Cautionary Factors That May Affect Future Results” in its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2015. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures included in this presentation to the most comparable GAAP measures are available on Altria’s website at altria.com.
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$2.57 $2.80
2014 2015 +8.9%
Source: Altria company reports *For reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures visit altria.com
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$2.08 $2.26
2014 2015 +8.7%
Source: Altria company reports Note: Dividend is based on the current annualized dividend (Last increased August 2015)
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23.1% 14.7% 1.4%
Altria S&P Food, Beverage & Tobacco S&P 500
Source: Bloomberg, 12/31/2014 to 12/31/2015 Note: Total shareholder return is simple price appreciation plus the reinvestment of the dividend as of the ex-dividend date
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28.6% 34.5% 23.1%
2013 2014 2015
Source: Bloomberg, 12/31/2012 to 12/31/2015 Note: Total shareholder return is simple price appreciation plus the reinvestment of the dividend as of the ex-dividend date
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$82 $70 $34 $28 $22
Tobacco Cigarettes Beer Carbonated Beverages Salty Snacks
Note: Total US MOC is comprised of Food, Drug, Mass Merchandisers, Club, Dollar, DeCA, Convenience and Walmart classes of trade with ACV of $2MM+ excluding Pharmaceutical sales. Carbonated Beverage and Beer (including Ale and Cider, not Liquor) exclude on-premise sales. Source: ALCS Estimates and IRI
$ in Billions
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Note: Total US MOC is comprised of Food, Drug, Mass Merchandisers, Club, Dollar, DeCA, Convenience and Walmart classes of trade with ACV of $2MM+ excluding Pharmaceutical sales. Carbonated Beverage and Beer (including Ale and Cider, not Liquor) exclude on-premise sales. Source: ALCS Estimates and IRI
$ in Billions
$34 $82 $70 $34 $28 $22
Tobacco Cigarettes Marlboro Beer Carbonated Beverages Salty Snacks Marlboro
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Note: Third party trademarks are the property of their respective owners and are included for informational purposes only.
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diluted EPS
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Grow new income streams with innovative tobacco products Maximize income from core premium tobacco businesses over the long term Manage diverse income streams and strong balance sheet to deliver consistent financial performance
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Note: Third party trademarks are the property of their respective owners and are included for informational purposes only.
Philip Morris Acquired Miller Brewing Co.
Combined Miller with SAB
Source: Altria company reports
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July 2002 September 14, 2015
Source: Bloomberg
$ in Billions
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Source: Altria company reports
2002 to 2015
Note: Third party trademarks are the property of their respective owners and are included for informational purposes only.
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influence over the asset
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Source: AB InBev Investor Presentation on 11/11/2015 Note: Third party trademarks are the property of their respective owners and are included for informational purposes only.
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10.5% stake in the new company
earnings
Source: Altria company reports Note: Ownership interest and pre-tax cash consideration are subject to any proration.
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Source: ABI InBev 2.7 deal document
£29.34 £41.84
SABMiller Share Price Undisturbed Share Price as of 9/14/15 Total PSA Value as of 11/10/15
Note: PSA defined as Partial Share Alternative
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Source: MillwardBrown – Top 100 Global Brands - 2015 Note: Third party trademarks are the property of their respective owners and are included for informational purposes only.
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Source: Altria company reports Cigarette volume adjusted for trade inventory changes and other factors. *For reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures visit altria.com
50.9% 51.3%
2014 2015
Source: IRI/MSAi
+0.4pp
43.8% 44.0%
2014 2015 +0.2pp
PM USA Marlboro
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44.0% 54.9%
Total Market Share Share of Non-Menthol Segment
Source: IRI/MSAi Note: FY 2015 retail market share
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6.7% 7.2%
0.0 10.0 2012 2015 +0.5pp
Source: IRI/MSAi
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Represents Leading Brand in Each Category
Note: Retail sales in Convenience Stores only. Carbonated Beverages and Beer (including Ale and Cider, not liquor) exclude on-premise sales. Source: IRI C-Stores 52-weeks ending 12/27/15
$ in Billions
Marlboro Beer Carbonated Beverages Salty Snacks Chocolate Candy Marlboro
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Source: ALCS
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Source: ARC Reporting through w/e 10.31.15
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For Investor Relations Purposes Only - CAGNY Conference, Feb. 17, 2016
350 marlboro.com Company A Company B Company C
Source: comScore Custom Report January 2015 – December 2015 Note: ComScore projection is based on approximately 750,000 person (age 21+) data panel. Visits are defined as the total number of times during a reporting period that a person accessed content within the website.
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120 2012 2013 2014 2015
in Millions
Source: ARC reporting through December 2015 Note: Interactions defined as web/app engagements, email opens, SMS received
+158%
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30 70 2010 2015
Source: 2015 TNS Brand Equity Study (Age Group: 21 – 54), January 2016
+5 pts
Overall Equity (Adult Smokers 21 – 54)
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30 70 Camel Newport Marlboro
Source: 2015 TNS Brand Equity Study (Age Group: 21 – 54), January 2016
Overall Equity among Adult Smokers
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Source: ALCS CATTS – 6MM ending September 2015
50 Marlboro Newport Camel Marlboro
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Source: Maxwell; MSAi Shipments; IRI/Capstone – Total Retail Panel; IRP IRI Group/Capstone Projected Retail Panel; IRI/MSAi
1954 1963 1972 1981 1990 1999 2008
44.0
2015
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69.9% 47.3%
2001 2009
Source: RAD SVT 2001; IRI 2009 - 2015
47.9% 51.3%
2010 2015 +3.4pp
Before Altria’s Acquisition After Altria’s Acquisition
(22.6)pp
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Source: Altria company reports *For reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures visit altria.com
$ in Millions
$832 $1,112
2010 2015 +6.0%
CAGR
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24.5% 31.6%
2010 2015
Source: IRI Group InfoScan Smokeless Tobacco Database (FY 2012 – Retail Share) Source: IRI InfoScan
+7.1 pp
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For Investor Relations Purposes Only - CAGNY Conference, Feb. 17, 2016
Source: IRI InfoScan
5.8% 8.6%
0% 10% Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15
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30 70 Copenhagen Skoal Grizzly
Equity Among Adult Dippers (21 – 54) Equity Among Adult Dippers (21 – 29)
30 70 Copenhagen Skoal Grizzly
Source: 2015 TNS Brand Equity Study (Age Group: 21 – 54 and Age Group: 21 - 29), January 2016
Copenhagen Skoal Copenhagen Skoal
Copenhagen’s equity is at least four points higher than Grizzly among adult dippers 21–54 and those age 21–29.
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2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: ALCS estimates
$ in Billions
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We continue to advocate for regulation and tax policies that recognize a continuum of risk.
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Note: Third party trademarks are the property of their respective owners and are included for informational purposes only.
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Note: Third party trademarks are the property of their respective owners and are included for informational purposes only.
is expected to be filed towards the end of 2016
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(5.0)% (3.5)% (3.0)% (4.0)% (3.5)% (0.5)%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: ALCS estimates
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100 106 103 58 45 55 58 67 73 87 98
150 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sources: The Conference Board, full-year average
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7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.8%
0% 10% 2013 2014 2015 2016E
$3.58 $3.44 $2.51 $1.98
$0 $5 2013 2014 2015 2016E
Unemployment Rate Gasoline Prices ($/gal)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Official Unemployment Rate (U3); U.S. Energy Information Administration, full-year average Note: All 2016 estimates are from the respective agencies.
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$15.5 $17.0
$0 $20 2014 2015
Source: Altria company reports; ALCS estimates; other public company reports
+10%
$ in Billions
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27.8% 14.4% 8.3%
0% 50% Altria S&P Beverages S&P Food
29.6% 14.3% 5.4%
0% 50% Altria S&P Beverages S&P Food
2015 Net Income Margins 2015 Free Cash Flow Margins
Source: FactSet Note: Net Income and Free Cash Flow Margins are non-GAAP. 2015 GAAP net income and FCF margins based on reported results and calendar Q4 estimates for companies that have not reported. Free cash flow defined as operating cash flow less capex. For reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures visit altria.com.
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$1.90 $2.80
2010 2015 +8.1%
CAGR
Source: Altria company reports *For reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures visit altria.com.
$1.52 $2.26
2010 2015 +8.3%
CAGR
Dividend Per Share Growth Adjusted Diluted EPS*
Note: Dividend is based on the current annualized dividend (Last increased August 2015);
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Source: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters
S&P Food, Beverage and Tobacco Index
PM MO RAI KO PEP GIS K HSY DPS CPB
Note: All payout ratios have been calculated using the company’s current annualized dividend rate divided by the 2015 adjusted EPS estimate or actual results if available.
1 Altria’s dividend payout ratio is based on the annualized dividend of $2.26 divided by 2015 EPS of $2.80. In addition, Altria’s announced payout ratio target is ~80% of underlying EPS. 2 General Mills and Campbell Soup 2015 EPS estimates are adjusted to align with a calendar year end Kraft Heinz Co not included due to partial year consensus estimates
Source: FactSet
1 2 2
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$5.7 $7.6
$0 $10 2010 2015
43.6% 44.0%
0% 65% 2010 2015
Source: Altria company reports *For reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures visit altria.com; CAGR calculated on actual figures
Adjusted OCI*
+5.8%
CAGR
$ in Billions
Marlboro Retail Share
+0.4 pp
Source: IRI/MSAi
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Source: Altria company reports *For reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures visit altria.com
$104.47 $128.54
2010 2015
Revenues Net of Excise Taxes /1000 Units*
+4.2% CAGR
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57.5% 63.7%
0% 70% 2010 2015
$0.8 $1.1
$0.0 $1.5 2010 2015
Source: Altria company reports *For reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures visit altria.com; CAGR calculated on actual figures
Adjusted OCI*
+6.0%
CAGR
$ in Billions
Adjusted OCI* Margins
+6.2pp
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724 814
850 2010 2015
47.9% 51.3%
0% 70% 2010 2015
Source: Altria company reports
Copenhagen & Skoal Combined Retail Share Smokeless Reported Shipment Volume Growth
+3.4pp
Source: IRI InfoScan as of 01/03/2016
in Millions
+2.3%
CAGR
Note: CAGR calculated on actual figures
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Source: Altria company reports
$300
Annualized savings by end of 2017
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Smokeable Smokeless Other
Source: Altria company reports Underlying earnings contribution, adjusted to exclude tobacco and health judgments
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$83 $152
$0 $200 2010 2015
Source: Altria company reports * For reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP measures visit www.altria.com; CAGR calculated on actual figures
Adjusted OCI*
+12.9%
CAGR
6.7 8.9
10 2010 2015 +5.8%
CAGR
Reported Shipment Volume
$ in Millions Cases in Millions
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For Investor Relations Purposes Only - CAGNY Conference, Feb. 17, 2016
Source: Altria company reports
$4.7 $1.3
2010 2015
Net Finance Receivables
Note: Net Finance Receivables reflect PMCC’s investments in finance leases excluding the allowance for losses.
$ in Billions
($3.4)
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$3.4 $25.8
July 2002 December 2015
Source: Bloomberg
$ in Billions
Note: Third party trademarks are the property of their respective owners and are included for informational purposes only.
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$108 $1,006
2002 2014
$ in Millions
Source: Altria company reports
+20.4%
CAGR
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$628 $757
2010 2015 +3.8%
CAGR
Source: Altria company reports
$ in Millions
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9.1% 5.5%
December 2009 December 2015
Source: Altria company reports
(3.6)pp
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$2.08 $2.26
Aug-14 Aug-15 +8.7%
Source: Altria company reports Note: Dividend is based on the current annualized dividend (Last increased August 2015). Dividends and share repurchases are subject to the discretion of the Board.
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Source: Altria company reports
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2010-2015 Share Repurchase Dividend
Source: Altria company reports
$ in Billions
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Altria Group S&P Food, Beverage and Tobacco S&P 500
Source: Bloomberg, 12/31/2010-12/31/2015 Note: Total shareholder return is simple price appreciation plus the reinvestment of the dividend as of the ex-dividend date
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in a range of $3.00 to $3.05, representing a growth rate of 7% to 9% from
proposed transaction with SABMiller in the second half of 2016.
SABMiller transaction. At the appropriate time, we expect to provide further details on any impact of the transaction to Altria’s 2016 earnings guidance and the potential use of cash proceeds.
Source: Altria company reports *For reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures visit altria.com
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Note: Third party trademarks are the property of their respective owners and are included for informational purposes only. Source: WSJ Blogs – The Best Stock Over The Last 30 Years? You’ve Never Heard of It – MoneyBeat, 1/29/2016
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explanations of non-GAAP financial measures, visit: altria.com
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