2007 Forecast Presentation Mike Quinn January 4,2007 ;:t. F' . M - - PDF document

SLIDE 1

2007 Forecast Presentation

Confidential - Highly Restricted

Mike Quinn January 4,2007

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY BUSINESS INFORMATION CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT REQUESTED

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SLIDE 2

Market Trends Compared to Subgoal Levels

I I

I Low- and Moderate-Income I I

Underserved Areas

I

48%

47.0%

40%

37.1% 37.1% 46.0%

,--- ,/r

46%

45.0%

r-

44.6% 44.6%

35%

43.9%

• 33.0%

33.0%

44%

."'"

,--- ,---

1.n

42%

'0

30%

27.6% 0.0

00f'

26.5%

40% <> <> 25% 38% 36% 20% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20%

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Special Affordable

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HMDA Market Measures:

• Conventional Conforming, Owner-Occupied,

18.0%

Home Purchase Mortgages, in MSAs,

18% 17.0% 17.0%

r-

includes 50% of subprime market

15.7% 15.9% ~1%

• fJ

16%

Internal Estimate of 2006 Market

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4.5~

.......

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14.0%

14%

D

12%

Home Purchase Subgoals

10% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

I Market has shifted significantly since HUD set the subgoals I CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY BUSINESS INFORMATION CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT REQUESTED

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SLIDE 3

2007 Housing Goal Forecast

2007 Forecast (Before Initiatives) .... : __

.!I",nc",re"m",e:.!:n",ta",ls,-,f",ro",m,-,l",ni",ti"at"iv,e~s

__

• -,

Base Business Surplus/Shortfall "'-"""""'''-'''-''''-!!!''-! Surplus/Shortfall

Low-Mod

55.9% 28,649 65,999

• 500

21,000

28,1255,000 ......

5.00 .............. 5.,.500 .........20,125 11,250 8,500

• 250

11,000 500

I Base goals are achievable, but PMM subgoals remain a big challenge I CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY BUSINESS INFORMATION CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT REQUESTED

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SLIDE 4

Cost Estimates of 2006 Initiatives

Total # Incremental FV Category Volume (2006 Est) Total # Loans Loans FV Per Loan Incremental Total FV Cost Flow $ 13,822,322,593 114,231 45,156 $ (1,976.59) $ (5,000.16) $ (225,787,640) *IC MH Cal HFA $ 6802 176524 79853 34800 $ (2 504.60 $ (5747.09 $ (200 000 000 Total $ 20624 499 118 194084 79956 $ (2 193.83 $ (5325.25 $ (425787640 *Formal analysis has not been completed for the IC, MH, Cal HFA cost. This is a quick and dirty estimate.

Cost of meeting goals in 2006 estimated to be over $425 M

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