2007 Forecast Presentation Mike Quinn January 4,2007 ;:t. F' . M - PDF document

~. 2007 Forecast Presentation Mike Quinn January 4,2007 ;:t. F' . M Confidential - Highly Restricted annIe. ae 1 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY BUSINESS INFORMATION CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT REQUESTED FM-FCIC 00172437

4.5~ ~F ~ ~1% Market Trends Compared to Subgoal Levels ,--- ,/r I I I Low- and Moderate-Income I Underserved Areas I I 40% 48% 47.0% 37.1% 37.1% 46.0% 0 0 46% 45.0% r- 44.6% 44.6% - 35% 43.9% ."'" 33.0% 33.0% 44% ,--- ,--- 1.n 30% 27.6% 42% '0 0.0 00f' 26.5% <> <> 40% 25% 38% 20% 36% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Special Affordable I I HMDA Market Measures: 20% -- Conventional Conforming, Owner-Occupied, 18.0% Home Purchase Mortgages, in MSAs, 18% r- includes 50% of subprime market 17.0% 17.0% - fJ 15.9% 15.7% ....... 16% Internal Estimate of 2006 Market V" 14.0% "> 14% 0 0 D Home Purchase Subgoals 12% 10% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 I Market has shifted significantly since HUD set the subgoals I = . M 2 annIe. ae 2 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY BUSINESS INFORMATION CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT REQUESTED FM-FCIC 00172438

~. .!I",nc",re"m",e:.!:n",ta",ls,-,f",ro",m,-,l",ni",ti"at"iv,e~s 2007 Housing Goal Forecast 2007 Forecast (Before Initiatives) : __ .... __ --, Base Business Surplus/Shortfall "'-"""""'''-'''-''''-!!!''-! Surplus/Shortfall Low-Mod 55.9% 28,649 65,999 -500 21,000 28,1255,000 ...... 5.00 .............. 5.,.500 .........20,125 11,250 8,500 -250 11,000 500 I Base goals are achievable, but PMM subgoals remain a big challenge I AlF' - M 3 annIe. ae 3 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY BUSINESS INFORMATION CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT REQUESTED FM-FCIC 00172439

~. Cost Estimates of 2006 Initiatives Total # Incremental FV Category Volume (2006 Est) Total # Loans Loans FV Per Loan Incremental Total FV Cost $ (1,976.59) $ (5,000.16) $ (225,787,640) Flow $ 13,822,322,593 114,231 45,156 *IC MH Cal HFA $ 6802 176524 79853 34800 $ (2 504.60 $ (5747.09 $ (200 000 000 Total 20624 499 118 194084 79956 $ (2 193.83 $ (5325.25 $ (425787640 $ *Formal analysis has not been completed for the IC, MH, Cal HFA cost. This is a quick and dirty estimate. Cost of meeting goals in 2006 estimated to be over $425 M AlF' . M 4 annIe. ae 4 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY BUSINESS INFORMATION CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT REQUESTED FM-FCIC 00172440