100% renewable electricity Andrew Blakers Australian National - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

100% renewable electricity Andrew Blakers Australian National University

Global annual net new generation capacity PV and wind are variable

Sunlight in Australia Supply all of Australia’s and the world’s electricity

Most people live in the sunshine belt (+/- 30 ° ) 4

PV has rapid exponential growth

PV learning curve – rapidly reducing prices

Silicon PV: 94% of PV market Source: Fraunhofer ISE

BOS cost-fraction 50%: premium on efficiency

23-25% stabilised efficiency required for competitiveness Increasing efficiency leverages the whole value chain and all by itself reduces cost from $50/MWh to $40/MWh over the 2020s

Efficiency leveraging • Silicon PV technology in 2025 – Balance of Systems = half of system costs – Cell = two thirds of module cost = one third of system costs – Stabilised silicon module efficiency: >20% • Non-silicon PV technology – Assume similar modularisation costs – Assume cell cost = zero (generous!) • Breakeven stabilised non-silicon cell efficiency – For 30 year lifetime, 16% – For 15 year lifetime, 21%

Worldwide market shares for PV technologies

PESC & PERC First 20% cell PERC

Key papers in PERC development • First 18%, 1984: A.W. Blakers, M.A. Green, Shi Jiqun, E.M. Keller, S.R. Wenham, R.B. Godfrey, T. Szpitalak and M.R. Willison, “18% Efficient Terrestrial Si Solar Cell”, EDL 5, pp. 12 -13 • First 19% 1984: M.A. Green, A.W. Blakers, Shi Jiqun , E.M. Keller and S.R. Wenham, “19.1% Efficient Silicon Solar Cell”, APL Vol. 44, pp. 1163 -1165 • First 20%, 1986: A.W. Blakers and M.A. Green, “20% Efficient Silicon Solar Cell”, APL, Vol. 48, pp. 215-217 • PERC, 22-23%, 1988-90: – A.W. Blakers, A. Wang, A.M. Milne, J. Zhao, X. Dai and M.A. Green, ”22.6% Efficient Silicon Solar Cells”, p 801, Conf. Record, 4th International Photovoltaic Science and Engineering Conf., IREE, Sydney, Feb 1989 – A.W. Blakers, A. Wang, A.M. Milne, J. Zhao and M.A. Green, “22.8% Efficient Silicon Solar Cell”, APL Vol. 55, pp. 1363 -1365, 1989 – A.W. Blakers, J. Zhao, A. Wang, A.M. Milne, X. Dai and M.A. Green, “23% efficient silicon solar cell”, 8th PVSEC, Freiburg, September 1989 – Martin A Green, Andrew W. Blakers, Jianhua Zhao, Adele M. Milne, Aihua Wang and Ximing Dai, “Characterization of 23 - Percent Efficient Silicon Solar Cells”, IEEE Trans -ED Vol 37, pp 331-336, 1990 • PERC, 24-25%, 1991-99: Jianhua Zhao, Aihua Wang and Martin A. Green, “24·5% Efficiency silicon PERT cells on MCZ substrates and 24·7% efficiency PERL cells on FZ substrates”, PiP 7, 471-474, 1999

PERC fraction of global annual net new capacity additions PERC as a fraction of PV + wind + hydro + fossil + nuclear + other renewables

Stabilize 100% renewable electricity often blows at night • Technical diversity – 90% PV and wind (+ existing hydro & biomass) • Wide geographical dispersion hugely reduces required storage – million km 2 – High voltage interconnectors • Demand management – Shift loads from night to day, interruptible loads • Mass storage – Pumped hydro: 97% of all storage – Advanced batteries

High voltage DC transmission (HVDC) Storage & HVDC belong together • HVDC: Transmit Gigawatts at Megavolts over thousands of km • State-of-the-art: 1.1 MV, 3000 km, 12 GW, 10% loss

HVDC/AC backbones

Global energy storage Pumped hydro • 180 GW • 97% of all storage • Lowest cost Source http://www.energystorageexchange.org/projects/data_visualization

On-river pumped hydro storage Tumut 3 151 m head, 1.5 Gigawatts

Off-river (closed-loop) pumped hydro Tianhuangping Pumped Hydro • 1.8 GW, 7 hours of storage • Large head (890m) • Low flood control cost

Found in our survey: 22000 sites, 67 TWh Requirement for 100% renewables: 20 sites, ½ TWh 1800 sites 7 TWh 1500 sites 5 TWh 3800 sites 9 TWh 185 sites ½ TWh 8600 sites 29 TWh Only the best 0.1% of the sites needed We can be very choosy in site selection 4400 sites 11 TWh 2100 sites 6 TWh

Araluen (near Canberra, Australia) Many upper reservoir options. Only one needed per million people. 600 metre head Google Earth synthetic image

International site search Africa 23

North America

Central America 25

South America 26

Europe 27

West Asia 28

South Asia

East Asia 30

South East Asia 31

Australasia 32

Supporting 100% renewable electricity Place Upper Storage Multiple of reservoir capability national count (TWh) requirement * Australia 22,000 67 140 Hawaii 8,500 45 7 Arizona 6,500 # 35 5 Zhejiang Province 3,200 11 1 Bali (Indonesia) 660 2.3 3 * Refers to the entire country (not just the state or province) # Protected lands not yet excluded

PHES: water and environment - 100% renewables scenario • Environment – Exclude national parks – Australia: 40 km 2 total reservoirs – 2 m 2 per person (5 ppm of the continent) • Water – Water recycled; evaporation suppressors – PV/wind/PHES system uses ¼ of the water used by a coal-dominated system

Modelling 100% renewable electricity • No heroic assumptions: only use technologies in mass production (>100 GW deployment) – PV, wind, pumped hydro, HVDC/AC • Hourly demand, wind, sun data over many years • 90% PV + wind – 10% existing hydro and biomass • Very widely distributed over 1 million km 2 – Wide range of weather, climate, demand • Pumped hydro energy storage – Plus some batteries and demand management

Relative costs of new-build capacity in Australia in 2018-19 $/MWh 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 PV wind Coal

Cost of balancing 100% renewables Energy cost = Generation + Balancing PV & wind: $50/MWh $25/MWh Balancing 100% renewables Cost ($/MWh) Storage (pumped hydro) 12 HVDC transmission 7 Spillage of PV/wind 6 TOTAL balancing cost 25 (on top of generation) New coal power station = $80/MWh

Cost of hourly balancing Cost of energy = generation + balancing Balancing cost: • Storage • HVDC transmission • Spillage of PV/wind

Eliminating emissions, sector by sector Land sector & other 18% Electricity 35% Fugitive emissions 8% Industrial processes 55% of emissions 4% - PV + wind - Electric vehicles Aviation & shipping 4% - Electric heat pumps High temperature Land transport heat Low temperature 13% 11% heat 7%

Claimed vehicle efficiency 7 km/kWh 5 km/kWh 7 km/kWh 5 km/kWh https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/?redirect=no https://www.bmw.com.au/bmw-cars/bmw-i http://byd.com/ap/e6.html 40 http://www.pveurope.eu/News/E-Mobility/Electric-cars-BYD-E6-with-range-of-up-to-400-kilometers-80-kWh-battery

Rise of the electric vehicle (EV) http://www.ev-volumes.com/news/global-plug-in-deliveries-for-q3-2017-and-ytd /

Electric cars - About 6km/kWh 1 kW PV panel on your house roof • Produces 1,500 kWh per year • Lasts 25 years (= 2 cars) • Drives an electric car 9,000 km/year • Costs $2,000  PV energy costs 1 cent per km

Large-scale PV/wind pipeline 8.5 GW RET is met: 6.4 GW Pipeline • Probable • Committed • Completed Clean Energy Jan 2016 Aug 2018 Regulator data

Small-scale PV pipeline: 1.6 GW per year Clean Energy Regulator data

Current installation rate (2018 + 2019) • Large scale (>100kW) PV: 4 GW • Wind: 4 GW • Small scale PV (rooftop): 3 GW • TOTAL: 11 GW – 5.5 GW per year = 225 Watts per person per year → world’s highest

What if we keep installing 5.5 GW/year?

Worldwide electricity supply & demand renewables pass fossils

Conclusions • PV dominates net new generation capacity • Storage + HVDC supports a secure 100% renewable grid • Australia and the world on track to reach 80% renewable electricity in 2030 • PV (+ wind) on track to eliminate ALL fossil fuels in 2050 – 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions

Thank you! http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au ARENA support gratefully acknowledged