yield estimation in Morocco Mohammed Jlibene, Riad Balaghi Institut - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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yield estimation in Morocco Mohammed Jlibene, Riad Balaghi Institut - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Study case 3 Meteorological indicators for yield estimation in Morocco Mohammed Jlibene, Riad Balaghi Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Centre Rgional de Mekns. E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011 The wheat model Major Start

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Mohammed Jlibene, Riad Balaghi

Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Centre Régional de Meknès.

Study case 3

Meteorological indicators for yield estimation in Morocco

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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The wheat model

Major phases Start End Differentiation Process Physiological process Plant establish ment Germin ation Tiller ing Roots, leaves, shoots Biomass production (Carbohydrate) Spike develop ment Jointing Head ing Spikes, spikelets, florets Biomass production (Carbohydrate) Grain develop ment Floweri ng Matu rity Grain development and filling Remobilization of carbohydrates (starch and proteins)

Grain yield = Biomass x Harvest index

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Phenology and climate

Growth Stage Period Temperature Water need Growth Planting November Mild (20’s) Low Low Tillering January Low (10s) Medium Medium Jointing February Start rising (15’s) High High Flowering March Mild (20’s) Medium Medium Grain filling April High (30’s) Low Nil Maturity May High (40’s) Nil Nil (desiccation) In general, temperature influences development and water influences growth

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Factors influencing wheat yield

Factor Variation Factor of variation Sensitive stage Water High Shortage of water Supplied water Excess water Tillering, elongation Tillering, elongation Tillering, grain quality Minerals Medium Soil fertility Fertilization Cultivar Tillering, elongation Tillering, elongation Elongation Water*tempe rature*miner als High Vegetative stage CO2 Low Greenhouse effect Vegetative stage Temperature Low Spike formation Grain filling Radiation Low Clouds Vegetative stage

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Some basic concepts

  • Risk is a probable loss of a measurable trait

(yield, biomass, etc.);

  • Hazard is an uncertain event (Flood, drought,

epidemics, etc.);

  • Vulnerability is the susceptibility of a crop, a

land, an agro-system, etc.). Risk can be explained by hazard alone on a large scale, downscaling needs vulnerability factors

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Risk

Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability Risk = Yield, Biomass, Height, Flowering, etc. Hazard = Rainfall, Drought, Temperature, Mineral concentration, associated stresses like diseases and insects, etc. Vulnerability = Susceptibility, tolerance, resistance, etc.

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Risk grain yield

Temporal variation and Spatial variation

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Correlation rainfall and yield

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Cumulative annual rainfall

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Wheat development and rainfall

Cumul de pluviométrie décadaire à Meknes, pour la période 1998-2001. 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 s1 s2 s3 o1 o2 o3 n1 n2 n3 d1 d2 d3 j1 j2 j3 f1 f2 f3 m1 m2 m3 a1 a2 a3 m1 m2 m3 Décade Pluie cumulée (mm) 1998 1999 2001 2000

Semis Tallage Montaison Floraison Levée

Growth stages can be predicted based on temperature

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Wheat growth and development

Courbe de croissance de la variété de blé tendre Achtar en 2003 à Meknès Jlibene M. et A. Hamal

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 50 100 150 200 250

Temps (jour) Matière sèche (gr/m²) Y=1100/(1+480*e-0.044*t)) R²=0.9956 Tallage Montaison Levée Floraison Maturité

FC MC DC

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Hazard Most variable

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 Novembre Décembre Janvier Février Mars Avril 1972 1980 14, 3 25, 3 35, 4 46, 9 60, 2 74, 7 Moy. CV.

1 00 200 300 400 500 600 700 Novembre Décembre Janvier Février Mars Avril Moy. C.V. 67 760 1 42 1 1 04 21 3 1 634 288 1 942 352 2039 41 8 21 36

Rainfall variation Temperature variation

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Rainfall hazard

MEKNES 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 MEKNES 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 LAAYOUNE 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 AGADIR 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 TANGIER 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 MEKNES 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 MEKNES 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 LAAYOUNE 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 AGADIR 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 TANGIER 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Cumuml pluviométrique (mm) de 73 campagnes agricoles à Meknès

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Septembre Octobre Novembre Décembre Janvier Février Mars Avril Mai Juin

1945, 1981, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2002 1950, 1957, 1962, 1966, 1983, 1985, 1987, 2001 1932, 1935, 1948, 1949, 1955, 1967, 1980, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1933, 1944, 1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1961, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1979, 1982, 1938, 1939, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1964, 1965, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1978, 1986, 1990, 1934, 1940, 1954, 1996 1936, 1941, 1956, 1976, 1963 1960, 1977

Spatial variation Temporal variation

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Vulnerability

  • Land (aridity, soil water holding

capacity and general fertility)

  • Cropping system (rotation,

supplied water, fertilization)

  • Crop management (planting

date, weeding, pest control, etc.)

  • Cultivar tolerance or resistance

(to drought, heat, frost, insects, fungi, bacteria, viruses, minerals)

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Most dangerous drought period

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Two contrasting seasons for rainfall

a1 b1 a2 b2

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Relation between wheat yield and rainfall

Correlation between yield of wheat and relevant rainfall (September-May) de 0,74 et 0,76 (1996 et 1997 seasons excluded)

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Most significant indicators

Indicator Risk Hazard Vulnerability Rainfall Up to 10% Excess of rainfall Drainage, Cultivar tolerance to flooding and/or sprouting, Drought Up to 80% Shortage of rainfall Irrigation, cultivar resistance, conservation management Hessian fly Up to 30% Severity of infestation Cultivar resistance, date of planting Septoria Up to 30% Severity of infection Time of infection, protection, resistant cultivar Yellow rust Up to 30% Severity of infection Time of infection, protection, resistant cultivar Weeds Up to 50% Severity of infestation Soil infestation, management, protection Fertilization Up to 70% Quantity Soil fertility, time of application, efficient cultivar Planting date Up to 60% Days Earliness, resistance to Hessian fly

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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Downscaling in yield prediction

Scale Meteorological indicator Vulnerability Nation Crop cycle rainfall, three- months rainfall Equals unity Agro ecological Crop cycle rainfall, three- months rainfall Date of planting, insect infestation, disease infection Province Monthly or decadal rainfall, temperature, Level of N, cultivar Locality Decadal rainfall Pests control, date of planting, weed infestation, supplemental irrigation

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

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End of the presentation

Thank you

E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011