yield estimation in Morocco Mohammed Jlibene, Riad Balaghi Institut - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Study case 3 Meteorological indicators for yield estimation in Morocco Mohammed Jlibene, Riad Balaghi Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Centre Régional de Meknès. E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

The wheat model Major Start End Differentiation Physiological process phases Process Plant Germin Tiller Roots, leaves, shoots Biomass production establish ation ing (Carbohydrate) ment Spike Jointing Head Spikes, spikelets, Biomass production develop ing florets (Carbohydrate) ment Grain Floweri Matu Grain development Remobilization of develop ng rity and filling carbohydrates (starch ment and proteins) Grain yield = Biomass x Harvest index E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Phenology and climate Growth Stage Period Temperature Water need Growth Planting November Mild (20’s) Low Low Tillering January Low (10s) Medium Medium Jointing February Start rising High High (15’s) Flowering March Mild (20’s) Medium Medium Grain filling April High (30’s) Low Nil Maturity May High (40’s) Nil Nil (desiccation) In general, temperature influences development and water influences growth E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Factors influencing wheat yield Factor Variation Factor of variation Sensitive stage Water High Shortage of water Tillering, elongation Supplied water Tillering, elongation Excess water Tillering, grain quality Minerals Medium Soil fertility Tillering, elongation Fertilization Tillering, elongation Cultivar Elongation Water*tempe High Vegetative stage rature*miner als CO2 Low Greenhouse effect Vegetative stage Temperature Low Spike formation Grain filling Radiation Low Clouds Vegetative stage E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Some basic concepts • Risk is a probable loss of a measurable trait (yield, biomass, etc.); • Hazard is an uncertain event (Flood, drought, epidemics, etc.); • Vulnerability is the susceptibility of a crop, a land, an agro-system, etc.). Risk can be explained by hazard alone on a large scale, downscaling needs vulnerability factors E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Risk Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability Risk = Yield, Biomass, Height, Flowering, etc. Hazard = Rainfall, Drought, Temperature, Mineral concentration, associated stresses like diseases and insects, etc. Vulnerability = Susceptibility, tolerance, resistance, etc. E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Risk grain yield Temporal variation and Spatial variation E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Correlation rainfall and yield E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Cumulative annual rainfall E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Wheat development and rainfall Cumul de pluviométrie décadaire à Meknes, pour la période 1998-2001. 600.0 Floraison 1998 Montaison 500.0 Tallage Pluie cumulée (mm) 400.0 2001 Levée 2000 300.0 Semis 1999 200.0 100.0 0.0 s1 s2 s3 o1 o2 o3 n1 n2 n3 d1 d2 d3 j1 j2 j3 f1 f2 f3 m1 m2 m3 a1 a2 a3 m1 m2 m3 Décade Growth stages can be predicted based on temperature E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Wheat growth and development Courbe de croissance de la variété de blé tendre Achtar en 2003 à Meknès Jlibene M. et A. Hamal 1200 Y=1100/(1+480*e -0.044*t )) Maturité R²=0.9956 Floraison 1000 FC 800 Montaison Matière sèche (gr/m²) 600 MC 400 200 Tallage Levée DC 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 Temps (jour) E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Hazard Most variable 700 90,0 41 8 1 42 21 3 288 Moy. 67 352 21 36 1 1 04 1 634 1 942 C.V. 760 2039 1980 80,0 600 70,0 1972 500 60,0 400 50,0 40,0 300 30,0 200 20,0 1 00 10,0 Moy. 14, 25, 35, 46, 60, 74, CV. 3 3 4 9 2 7 0,0 0 Novembre Décembre Janvier Février Mars Avril Novembre Décembre Janvier Février Mars Avril Rainfall variation Temperature variation E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Rainfall hazard Cumuml pluviométrique (mm) de 73 campagnes agricoles à Meknès TANGIER TANGIER 1400 1400 1200 1200 1000 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 900 1960, 1977 0 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1963 800 1936, 1941, 1956, AGADIR AGADIR 1976, 1400 1400 1934, 1940, 1954, 1200 1200 1000 1000 1996 700 800 800 1938, 1939, 1942, 1951, 600 600 1958, 1964, 1965, 1968, 400 400 200 200 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 0 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1974, 1978, 1986, 1990, MEKNES MEKNES 600 1400 1400 1933, 1944, 1946, 1947, 1200 1200 1952, 1953, 1961, 1972, 1000 1000 800 800 MEKNES MEKNES 1973, 1975, 1979, 1982, 1400 1400 600 600 500 400 400 1200 1200 1932, 1935, 1948, 1949, 200 200 1000 1000 0 0 1955, 1967, 1980, 1989, 800 800 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 600 600 1991, 1992, 1994, 400 400 400 1950, 1957, 1962, 1966, 200 200 LAAYOUNE LAAYOUNE 1983, 1985, 1987, 2001 1400 1400 0 0 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 1200 3 1200 3 4 4 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1000 1000 1945, 1981, 1993, 1995, 800 800 300 1999, 2000, 2002 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 100 0 Septembre Octobre Novembre Décembre Janvier Février Mars Avril Mai Juin Spatial variation Temporal variation E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Vulnerability • Land (aridity, soil water holding capacity and general fertility) • Cropping system (rotation, supplied water, fertilization ) • Crop management (planting date, weeding, pest control, etc.) • Cultivar tolerance or resistance (to drought, heat, frost, insects, fungi, bacteria, viruses, minerals) E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Most dangerous drought period E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Two contrasting seasons for rainfall b1 a1 a2 b2 E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Relation between wheat yield and rainfall Correlation between yield of wheat and relevant rainfall (September-May) de 0,74 et 0,76 (1996 et 1997 seasons excluded) E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Most significant indicators Indicator Risk Hazard Vulnerability Rainfall Up to 10% Excess of rainfall Drainage, Cultivar tolerance to flooding and/or sprouting, Drought Up to 80% Shortage of rainfall Irrigation, cultivar resistance, conservation management Hessian fly Up to 30% Severity of infestation Cultivar resistance, date of planting Septoria Up to 30% Severity of infection Time of infection, protection, resistant cultivar Yellow rust Up to 30% Severity of infection Time of infection, protection, resistant cultivar Weeds Up to 50% Severity of infestation Soil infestation, management, protection Fertilization Up to 70% Quantity Soil fertility, time of application, efficient cultivar Planting date Up to 60% Days Earliness, resistance to Hessian fly E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

Downscaling in yield prediction Scale Meteorological indicator Vulnerability Nation Crop cycle rainfall, three- Equals unity months rainfall Agro Crop cycle rainfall, three- Date of planting, insect ecological months rainfall infestation, disease infection Province Monthly or decadal Level of N, cultivar rainfall, temperature, Locality Decadal rainfall Pests control, date of planting, weed infestation, supplemental irrigation E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011

End of the presentation Thank you E-AGRI, Rabat, 12-14 October 2011