Yemens Population and Development Challenges Outline I. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Yemens Population and Development Challenges Outline I. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 04, 2024 333 likes •706 views

Yemens Population and Development Challenges Outline I. Population Characteristics and Projections II. Sectoral Impacts Economy Education Health Natural Resources III. Conclusions and Main Challenge Outline I.

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SLIDE 1

Yemen’s Population and Development Challenges

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SLIDE 2

Outline

I. Population Characteristics and Projections II. Sectoral Impacts

– Economy – Education – Health – Natural Resources

III. Conclusions and Main Challenge

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SLIDE 3

Outline

I. Population Characteristics and Projections II. Sectoral Impacts

– Economy – Education – Health – Natural Resources

III. Conclusions and Main Challenge

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SLIDE 4

Total Population 1950-2004

4.3 M

1950

19.7M

2004

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SLIDE 5

High Fertility Drives Yemen’s Rapid Population Growth

1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 4 P e r T h o u s a n d

1.8% 3.7% 3.0% Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Rate of Natural Increase

Rate of natural increase = birth rate – death rate

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SLIDE 6

Total Fertility Rate

(Births/Woman)

Yemen 6.1 Sudan 4.8 Syria 3.5 Egypt 3.2

Source: World Population Prospects the 2006 Review

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SLIDE 7

Who Have the Highest Fertility?

6.7

Rural

6.7 Yemen 6

No schooling

2.8

Urban

4.5

Secondary

  • r higher
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SLIDE 8

Infant Mortality Rate

6 9 .2 3 6 . 9 1 8 .6 7 2 .6

1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0

P e r 1 ,0 0 0 L i v e B ir t h s

Y e m e n E g y p t S y r ia S u d a n

Source: World Population Prospects the 2006 Review (Highlights)

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SLIDE 9

Under Five Mortality Rate

9 5 .4 4 2 2 1 . 5 1 1 8 .3

2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0

P e r 1 ,0 0 0 L i v e B i r t h s

Y e m e n E g y p t S y r ia S u d a n

Source: World Population Prospects the 2006 Review

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SLIDE 10

Maternal Mortality Ratio (Adjusted – 2000)

3 6 5 8 4 1 6 0 5 9 0

1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0

P e r 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 L i v e B i r t h s

Y e m e n E g y p t S y r ia S u d a n

Source: Human Development Report 2006.

Yemen Family Health survey 2003

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SLIDE 11

Fertility Assumptions for the Future

High assumption --- Fertility rate of 6 children per woman will continue up to 2035--- RED UN Moderate assumption--- Fertility rate declines from 6 to 3 children per woman by 2035--- ORANGE Low assumption---Based on National Population Policy, with fertility rate declining to 3.3 children per woman in 2025 and to 2.1 by 2035--- GREEN

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SLIDE 12

Estimated Future Population

1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0

2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3

H ig h L o w M o d e r a t e

61 43 46

Millions

23

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SLIDE 13

Outline

I. Population Characteristics and Projections II. Sectoral Impacts

– Economy – Education – Health – Natural Resources

III. Conclusion and Main Challenge

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SLIDE 14

Economic Sector

GDP per capita

$ 1,293

Syria Egypt

$ 1,085

Yemen

$ 631

Sudan

$ 594

Source: Human Development Report 2006.

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SLIDE 15

GDP Per Capita ($)

1 ,3 6 2 1 ,9 2 5 1 ,8 4 7

5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 H ig h L o w M o d e ra t e

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SLIDE 16

1 3 .4 1 2 .0 2

5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3

M i l l i o n s

H ig h L o w M o d e r a te

Projected Labor Force

12.01

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SLIDE 17

Education Sector

Projected Student Enrollment: Basic

1 4 .7 8 .8

3 5 7 9 1 1 1 3 1 5 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3

M illio n s

L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

3.7

7.9

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SLIDE 18

Number of Students: Secondary

1 .7 2 .9 2 .0

0 .5 1 1 .5 2 2 .5 3 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 M illio n s

L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

Source: Ministry of Education, 2004

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SLIDE 19

Required Number of Basic Teachers

2 6 4

1 2 5

4 9 0

3 5 3

1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3

T h o u s a n d s

L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

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SLIDE 20

Required Number of Secondary Teachers

5 4 9 2

7 4

2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3

T h o u s a n d s

L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

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SLIDE 21

Expenditures to Establish New Classrooms, 2008-2035

Low: $2.83 B High: $7.68 B Low: $651 M High: $1.27 B

Basic Secondary

Moderate: $3.78 B Moderate: $795 M

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SLIDE 22

Required Expenditures for Basic Students

8 8 7 1 6 4 6 4 1 9

9 8 9

4 0 0 9 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 9 0 0

2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 M illio n $ L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

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SLIDE 23

8 2 2 2 8 3 8 8

2 7 2

5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 3 5 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3

M i lli o n $ L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

Required Expenditures for Secondary Students

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SLIDE 24

Number of Required Doctors

(same service ratio)

1 6 .4

5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 7 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 7 2 0 3 2

T h o u s a n d s

L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

12.1 11.6

Health Sector

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SLIDE 25

Number of Required Doctors

(assuming improved service ratio)

8 7 1 2 3 6

9 0

2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0 1 2 5 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3

ﻒﻟﻷﺎﺑ

L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

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SLIDE 26

Required Number of Hospital Beds

4 0 .5 1 5 .6 6 1 .3

4 5 .2

1 5 2 5 3 5 4 5 5 5 6 5 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3

T h o u s a n d s

L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

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SLIDE 27

Recurrent Health Expenditures

1 0 8 4 1 5 3 0 1 1 2 9

2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3

$ M illio n s

L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

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SLIDE 28

Per Capita Arable Land

0 .0 4 0 .0 2 0 .0 6

0 .0 1 0 .0 2 0 .0 3 0 .0 4 0 .0 5 0 .0 6 0 .0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 H e c t a r e p e r c a p i t a

L o w F e rt ilit y C o n s t a n t F e rt ilit y M o d e ra t e

0.04

Natural Resources

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SLIDE 29

Water Per Capita

2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0

2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3

C u b i c m e t e r s

H ig h L o w M o d e ra t e

66 44 62

120

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SLIDE 30

Required Water

8 3 9 2 5 5 5 3 . 3 0 7 5 6 1 9 2 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 M i l l i o n c u b i c m e t e r s H i g h L o w M o d e r a t e

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SLIDE 31

Electricity Per Capita

(current shortage is 25%)

5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0

2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 K i l o w a t t / h o u r

H ig h L o w M o d e r a te

108 71

195

105

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SLIDE 32

Outline

I. Population Characteristics and Projections II. Sectoral Impacts

– Economy – Education – Health – Natural Resources

III. Conclusions and Main Challenge

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SLIDE 33

The Price to Pay For Continuing High Fertility

29 % less income per person 1.5 million new entrants to labor force 33% less water $ 5.5 billion to build new classrooms S447 million in 2035 for recurrent health exp.

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SLIDE 34

Can we do it?

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SLIDE 35

Population Growth and Economic Development

2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 4 2 0 1 4 2 0 2 4 2 0 3 4 2 0 4 4 2 0 5 4 2 0 6 4 2 0 7 4 2 0 8 4 2 0 9 4 M illio n s

U n m e t N e e d S a tis fie d U N M e d iu m P r o je c tio n C u r r e n t S itu a tio n

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SLIDE 36

Main Challenge: High Fertility Due to Low Family Planning Use and High Unmet Need

Married women:

  • 51% have unmet

need for FP

  • Only 23% use FP
  • Have limited access

to RH/FP services

Married women, Ages 15-49 51% 23%